NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[Red Squirrel]

Everyone should always be concerned with their property value...

I understand that you live in northern parts of Canada eh" ? So I'm guessing your property value doesn't fluctuate much, since it sounds like you don't live in a heavily populated dense area like a typical urban city? How spread apart are the homes where you live?

I mean just to put it into perspective, my wife bought our last house for ~$140k (before we even met) around 2010. 7 years later we sold it for $215k. Property values ARE a big deal - unless you think a 50% profit isn't a big deal?

But that's just it is what I'm saying. I'm all for the libertarian aspect of "Do what you want as long as it doesn't affect me"... but that's just it, other properties in your neighborhood DOES affect you. It affects your home worth, and subsequently how much money you can get for it.

Neighborhoods are fairly standard here, in fact my area is fairly dense and yards are small. Thing with property value is that normally if it goes up, it just means that ALL house are up. So when you move to another house, sure your house sells for more, but you're also paying more for the new house. If your value is down, the new house is probably cheaper too. So it comes up to the same. Of course if you're moving to a different city then moving from a city where real estate is booming to one where it's down you can make a good profit.

I mean sure it's nice to be able to make a profit, but day to day life should not be dictated by the chance of you selling in the future. I did a bunch of changes to my house that probably lowered the value such as removing a fireplace and bathroom, but I care more about making it the way I want so I can enjoy it, than to abide by some arbitrary features that dictate the value.

New cars are around 1/4 the cost of a house when all is said and done and are a pretty serious financial decision. People buy new all the time knowing the value plummets the minute you drive it off the lot, so always found it odd that people treat houses differently.

Guess were getting a bit off topic here.

 

[Mai72]

I love Nassim's work. His book "AntiFragile" is a great book. If you haven't read it, check it out.

BTW, I think he's absolutely correct. We are going to have more pandemics. This isn't just an uncommon issue. Expect more of these.

 

[Mai72]

I live at the shore and we are already feeling the economic impact. People are out of work. We are already seeing motel, hotel and condo summer cancellations.

What do you guys think about the summer, and shore towns? Are we going to be able to open for Memorial Day. Easter is already a lost, and now people are freaking out about the upcoming summer months. This is where many make their money. Hotels, stores, the boardwalk, beaches. This could be a terrible year for us. I just don't see Memorial Day as a viable option. This about this. It's expected that NYC will reach their peak in 2-3 weeks. That only gives us a window of 4-5 weeks to try to get COVID-19 levels down enough so travel is safe again. NYC doesn't even take into account other states, cities and counties. Plus, add in tens, hundreds of thousands visitors visiting the shores of NJ, Mass, RI, etc. That could be a recipe for disaster.

 

[Kaido]

USPS might go under:

USPS warns it might have to shutter by June as $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package provides no funding

"Without immediate action by Congress and the President, the Postal Service—a vital staple of American society since 1775—could cease to exist by this summer."

fortune.com

 

[Red Squirrel]

I think by summer this will probably be calming down. At very least the lockdown will probably be over, but I think it will happen kind of slowly, where people will be allowed to gather again, but anyone with symptoms will not be allowed. Hard to tell though... it could totally go through the whole summer too. If they lift it too early it would probably cause a second wave.

I think it all depends on how soon they can develop a safe vaccine too. If by chance they have one ready by summer and it becomes mass available it could speed up getting life back to normal. At same time though, I don't know if I would want to get the vaccine right away, rather wait a little while to be extra sure it's safe and I'm sure same goes with most people. Realisticly I think we are a year away from a vaccine anyway.

 

[Red Squirrel]

USPS might go under:

USPS warns it might have to shutter by June as $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package provides no funding

"Without immediate action by Congress and the President, the Postal Service—a vital staple of American society since 1775—could cease to exist by this summer."

fortune.com

Damn, would figure they would be doing ok right now as people are still ordering stuff online and most online stores are still open.

That would be pretty huge if they went under, that's like Canada Post going under.

 

[Kaido]

I think by summer this will probably be calming down. At very least the lockdown will probably be over, but I think it will happen kind of slowly, where people will be allowed to gather again, but anyone with symptoms will not be allowed. Hard to tell though... it could totally go through the whole summer too. If they lift it too early it would probably cause a second wave.

I think it all depends on how soon they can develop a safe vaccine too. If by chance they have one ready by summer and it becomes mass available it could speed up getting life back to normal. At same time though, I don't know if I would want to get the vaccine right away, rather wait a little while to be extra sure it's safe and I'm sure same goes with most people. Realisticly I think we are a year away from a vaccine anyway.

I think the main questions right now are:

1. How long will this last? (worldwide, that is)

2. Can you test to see if you already got it?

3. Can you get it again?

 

[Mai72]

Damn, would figure they would be doing ok right now as people are still ordering stuff online and most online stores are still open.

That would be pretty huge if they went under, that's like Canada Post going under.

I doubt the post office will go under. Congrees won't allow that to happen. But, you never know.

 

[gill77]

I love Nassim's work. His book "AntiFragile" is a great book. If you haven't read it, check it out.

BTW, I think he's absolutely correct. We are going to have more pandemics. This isn't just an uncommon issue. Expect more of these.

I think I've read everything since "Black Swan". Just downloaded "Fooled by Randomness" this morning.

AntiFragile is particularly good. It seems that our brains are just not wired to wrap our heads around the probabilistic way the world works.

His books change the way you look at the world.

 

[Mai72]

I think the main questions right now are:

1. How long will this last? (worldwide, that is)

2. Can you test to see if you already got it?

3. Can you get it again?

Yea. But, could you see America in lockdown come summer? When so many shore towns rely on tourist dollars?

The truth is who will want to visit a shore town with hundreds of thousands of people. Would you want to go to a bar that will be packed with hundreds of strangers. Just at a time when COVID-19 will still be prevalent in some form? Where do I sign up? We are going to have a very difficult summer IMO. The sooner people realize this, the sonner they can prepare. But, if we continue to sugar coat this pandemis we are going to have a lot more sick people. I live at the NJ shore. I saw a ton of PA, and North Jersey tags. A few NY tags as well. If the government isn't will to forcibly evict people from shore towns, I can only imagine the amount of sick people will only increase. I'm still curious about Easter. If we have good weather I can imagine the idiots visiting my town will be very large. Hopefully not. We shall see I guess.

 

[nakedfrog]

USPS might go under:

USPS warns it might have to shutter by June as $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package provides no funding

"Without immediate action by Congress and the President, the Postal Service—a vital staple of American society since 1775—could cease to exist by this summer."

fortune.com

I thought I'd read previously that the requirement placed on them to pre-fund retirements was the main thing dragging them down.

 

[Captante]

Yea. But, could you see America in lockdown come summer? When so many shore towns rely on tourist dollars?

The truth is who will want to visit a shore town with hundreds of thousands of people. Would you want to go to a bar that will be packed with hundreds of strangers. Just at a time when COVID-19 will still be prevalent in some form? Where do I sign up? We are going to have a very difficult summer IMO. The sooner people realize this, the sonner they can prepare. But, if we continue to sugar coat this pandemis we are going to have a lot more sick people. I live at the NJ shore. I saw a ton of PA, and North Jersey tags. A few NY tags as well. If the government isn't will to forcibly evict people from shore towns, I can only imagine the amount of sick people will only increase. I'm still curious about Easter. If we have good weather I can imagine the idiots visiting my town will be very large. Hopefully not. We shall see I guess.

Hell I don't even want to go to the ATM right now!

And I agree that Memorial day is not going to happen.... Labor day is at serious risk as well.

 

[manly]

I doubt the post office will go under. Congrees won't allow that to happen. But, you never know.

USPS is a de facto government entity and implicitly backstopped by the federal government.

 

[local]

My prediction is August before any kind of thought about vacations can begin and next year before major return to normal.

I thought I'd read previously that the requirement placed on them to pre-fund retirements was the main thing dragging them down.

It is but the drop in mail volume will speed up the failure point. They will not go under though, not unless the fed is going down as well.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I seriously doubt that people working from home on computers would be defined as commercial business unless the judge(or his friends) has a financial stake in the outcome.....

I think that under the current conditions not only would this not be valid a massive countersuit could ensue.

 

[Mai72]

I thought I'd read previously that the requirement placed on them to pre-fund retirements was the main thing dragging them down.

The USPS switched to a 401k in the mid 80s if I'm not mistaken. They do have retired USPS workers who are still getting a pension, and that might be an issue. I'm sure many are still living. The big issue is first class mail isn't what it used to be. How many young people write letters? Or, how many send postcards anymore? I haven't used the post office in years. The same with my bank. I do everything on line and electronically.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

The USPS switched to a 401k in the mid 80s if I'm not mistaken. They do have retired USPS workers who are still getting a pension, and that might be an issue. I'm sure many are still living. The big issue is first class mail isn't what it used to be. How many young people write letters? Or, how many send postcards anymore? I haven't used the post office in years. The same with my bank. I do everything on line and electronically.

For the case of things like... bank statements and credit card bills - yeah, they took a hit.

However, sending letters via mail is perhaps one of the few methods that is still "legal proof", so it does still have a purpose.

But yeah, any shipment company with half a brain would have realized long ago that letters are going away and packages are taking off. Not exactly complicated.

 

[Mai72]

Dolly Parton will be reading bedtime stories to your children.

Starting Thursday, Dolly Parton will read bedtime stories to your kids | CNN

Country music superstar Dolly Parton wants to bring a little comfort to kids and families during the coronavirus pandemic by providing weekly bedtime stories.

www.cnn.com

 

[Ichinisan]

...
#1 - Name a single country that was able to get a significant headsup to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. (there isn't one)
...

Taiwan. They took serious steps back when China was still denying and suppressing the outbreak.

Despite Taiwan's success and transparency, WHO still completely ignored Taiwan to appease China.

China does not want Taiwan to be acknowledged as an independent entity, China wants to make sure Taiwan can never join the WHO.

 

[Muse]

I love Nassim's work. His book "AntiFragile" is a great book. If you haven't read it, check it out.

BTW, I think he's absolutely correct. We are going to have more pandemics. This isn't just an uncommon issue. Expect more of these.

Excellent! His thoughts on the 2.2 trillion dollar bailout just signed coincide exactly as far as I can tell with those of Robert Reich, Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton from 1993-1997, and served in a handful of other administrations, currently a professor of economics at U.C. Berkeley. He was interviewed on NBC SF Bay Area TV news a few days ago. Said exactly those things. The little guy is getting hosed, virtually no help. And the corporations getting bailed out are precisely the ones that failed to prepare for an emergency, who spent their money on stock buybacks, executive bonuses and other frivolities.

 

[Muse]

China does not want Taiwan to be acknowledged as an independent entity, China wants to make sure Taiwan can never join the WHO.

China needs to be bitch-slapped! OK, I'm no misogynist, I'm talking they need to be held accountable for blowing this, for allowing conditions that are conducive to pandemics developing (see the final scene in Contagion, it looks like what you'd imagine must have happened in that Wuhan live animal wet market in November or early December). And the international community should wring their necks for their insistence in not recognizing the sovereignty of Taiwan. They blew it and we're all paying a huge price. It's about time they are forced to be accountable.

 

[CZroe]

China needs to be bitch-slapped! OK, I'm no misogynist, I'm talking they need to be held accountable for blowing this, for allowing conditions that are conducive to pandemics developing (see the final scene in Contagion, it looks like what you'd imagine must have happened in that Wuhan live animal wet market in November or early December). And the international community should wring their necks for their insistence in not recognizing the sovereignty of Taiwan. They blew it and we're all paying a huge price. It's about time they are forced to be accountable.

Taiwan had clinical proof of human to human transmission in December when China was still claiming otherwise in January. Taiwan tried to get the WHO to acknowledge this, but guess who the WHO sided with in January?

 

[manly]

China needs to be bitch-slapped! OK, I'm no misogynist, I'm talking they need to be held accountable for blowing this, for allowing conditions that are conducive to pandemics developing (see the final scene in Contagion, it looks like what you'd imagine must have happened in that Wuhan live animal wet market in November or early December). And the international community should wring their necks for their insistence in not recognizing the sovereignty of Taiwan. They blew it and we're all paying a huge price. It's about time they are forced to be accountable.

Taiwan is de facto independent, but they are not a country/nation and never will be. Sorry for being blatantly political, but that's the truth. I'm not making a statement on whether the WHO should kowtow less to China, and work honestly with Taiwan. By all accounts, Taiwan is the only "state" that has successfully handled coronavirus, not counting China/SK which had major outbreaks. Even HK and Singapore are dealing with an influx of "imported" cases now, even though especially Singapore did all the right things for many weeks.

I'm not gonna defend China's handling of Wuhan and novel coronavirus in December. They're an authoritarian state, and don't share our Western values and legal system. However, there's a myth that they didn't do enough or that their comically low Covid-19 case count nullifies what they did do. The fact is by shutting down Hubei and virtually their entire economy, they gave the rest of world at least a month to get itself prepared. Given that time period, some states were in fact well prepared and dealt accordingly: Taiwan, Singapore, HK and even South Korea. Most did not or have not, and some like Italy or U.S. grossly mishandled the situation. There are others that have led their population to varying degrees of slaughter: Japan, UK and Mexico (the list really goes on and on).

Blaming China's initial incompetence for our own ongoing failures is attempting to twist the truth. I know I'm gonna get flamed now, but that's OK.

 

[CZroe]

Taiwan is de facto independent, but they are not a country/nation and never will be. Sorry for being blatantly political, but that's the truth. I'm not making a statement on whether the WHO should kowtow less to China, and work honestly with Taiwan. By all accounts, Taiwan is the only "state" that has successfully handled coronavirus, not counting China/SK which had major outbreaks. Even HK and Singapore are dealing with an influx of "imported" cases now, even though especially Singapore did all the right things for many weeks.

I'm not gonna defend China's handling of Wuhan and novel coronavirus in December. They're an authoritarian state, and don't share our Western values and legal system. However, there's a myth that they didn't do enough or that their comically low Covid-19 case count nullifies what they did do. The fact is by shutting down Hubei and virtually their entire economy, they gave the rest of world at least a month to get itself prepared. Given that time period, some states were in fact well prepared and dealt accordingly: Taiwan, Singapore, HK and even South Korea. Most did not or have not, and some like Italy or U.S. grossly mishandled the situation. There are others that have led their population to varying degrees of slaughter: Japan, UK and Mexico (the list really goes on and on).

Blaming China's initial incompetence for our own ongoing failures is attempting to twist the truth. I know I'm gonna get flamed now, but that's OK.

By lying to the world they set us back. They cannot take credit for Taiwan's preparedness when Taiwan had already approached the WHO with clinical evidence of human to human spread back in December while China was still claiming that there was no evidence of human to human spread in January. The WHO repeated China's known-false assertion and the world believed it.

Any time China bought for the rest of the world was squandered by their lies. China and the WHO opposed travel bans allowing it to be exported around the world in December, January, and February. Their denial in December and January led to mass gatherings and travel to/from Wuhan for Chinese New Year. To credit their government after such a massive mismanagement is wrong.

They complained about the US travel ban when it was needed in January and yet now they ban everyone who isn't Chinese from coming in. Furthermore, their current ban is race-based when ours was not and yet they called our concern for anyone who traveled in Wuhan "racist." Such hypocrisy.

 

[KMFJD]

Taiwan is de facto independent, but they are not a country/nation and never will be. Sorry for being blatantly political, but that's the truth. I'm not making a statement on whether the WHO should kowtow less to China, and work honestly with Taiwan. By all accounts, Taiwan is the only "state" that has successfully handled coronavirus, not counting China/SK which had major outbreaks. Even HK and Singapore are dealing with an influx of "imported" cases now, even though especially Singapore did all the right things for many weeks.

I'm not gonna defend China's handling of Wuhan and novel coronavirus in December. They're an authoritarian state, and don't share our Western values and legal system. However, there's a myth that they didn't do enough or that their comically low Covid-19 case count nullifies what they did do. The fact is by shutting down Hubei and virtually their entire economy, they gave the rest of world at least a month to get itself prepared. Given that time period, some states were in fact well prepared and dealt accordingly: Taiwan, Singapore, HK and even South Korea. Most did not or have not, and some like Italy or U.S. grossly mishandled the situation. There are others that have led their population to varying degrees of slaughter: Japan, UK and Mexico (the list really goes on and on).

Blaming China's initial incompetence for our own ongoing failures is attempting to twist the truth. I know I'm gonna get flamed now, but that's OK.

agreed 100%