No New GPUs from AMD for the Bulk of 2013 [TechPowerUp]

[RussianSensation]

tviceman, not sure I am buying into the theory of too much inventory build up.

7 out of 10 SKUs of 7950 are sold out at Superbiiz
7 out of 12 SKUs of 7970s are sold out there too

On Newegg, 5 of 13 7950 SKUs were sold out today and they replenished most of that stock later today. 4 of 19 7970s that were in stock before the NSR bundle are sold out.

But here is the kicker. On Amazon, there are almost no HD7950/7970 cards left at cheap prices this evening because most of those $280-300 HD7950s and $380-400 HD7970s have sold out. Last week, it was easy as pie to find HD7950-7970 on Amazon at those prices.

Given HD7950's ridiculous overclocking potential, you are paying $280-290 and getting 2 games that would cost $80 in retail on launch date? That's like grabbing GTX680/7970GE level of performance for net $200-210 if you already intended to play those games. If you decide to sell that coupon for $40-50, you are still walking away with a card that sets you back just $240-250. Similarly, buying 2x 7950s and selling the coupon for 1 of those is effectively like buying 90% of the performance of 2x 680/7970GE OC cards if you don't mind tinkering 15 min in MSI AB. That's an unheard of level of value, even better than 2x HD6950s unlocked vs. GTX580 since HD7950 OC can surpass any sub-$460 flagship card at stock speeds from NV or AMD. Not many people want to pay $200+ more for 10% more performance.

Even if you consider dropping down to GTX670, it still can't touch the value of the 7950, not even close.

Your 670 is going for $390 on the Egg. That's about $80 overpriced when even fully maxed out at 1300mhz, it might beat an HD7950 OC by 10% and yet it still doesn't come with Crysis 3 / Bioshock that can be resold for $40-50. The value proposition of after-market HD7950 cards is out of this world right now.

Why exactly does AMD need HD8000 series? Do you honestly think AMD would replace HD7950 with HD8950 at only $279-299? No, a brand new generation would cost more, like $399-449. HD8970 wouldn't be $380-400 like 1Ghz HD7970s are but more like $549. I think most consumers would rather buy HD7950 for $279-299 than pay $399-449 for a 15-20% faster HD8950. At the current moment NV's GTX670/680 are vastly overpriced and their 3 F2P game bundle changes little. I think NV needs to drop prices $60-80 on 670/680s.

 

[Final8ty]

tviceman, not sure I am buying into the theory of too much inventory build up.

7 out of 10 SKUs of 7950 are sold out at Superbiiz
7 out of 12 SKUs of 7970s are sold out there too

On Newegg, 5 of 13 7950 SKUs were sold out today and they replenished most of that stock later today. 4 of 19 7970s that were in stock before the NSR bundle are sold out.

But here is the kicker. On Amazon, there are almost no HD7950/7970 cards left at cheap prices this evening because most of those $280-300 HD7950s and $380-400 HD7970s have sold out. Last week, it was easy as pie to find HD7950-7970 on Amazon at those prices.

Given HD7950's ridiculous overclocking potential, you are paying $280-290 and getting 2 games that would cost $80 in retail on launch date? That's like grabbing GTX680/7970GE level of performance for net $200-210 if you already intended to play those games. Similarly, buying 2x 7950s and selling the coupon for 1 of those is effectively like buying 2x 680/7970GE cards if you don't mind tinkering 15 min in MSI AB. That's an unheard of level of value, even better than 2x HD6950s unlocked vs. GTX580 since HD7950 OC can surpass any sub-$460 flagship card at stock speeds from NV or AMD. Not many people want to pay $200+ more for 10% more performance.

http://www.scan.co.uk/shop/computer-hardware/all/gpu-amd/radeon-hd7950-pci-e/radeon-hd7970-pci-e

 

[moonbogg]

AMD will announce that PS4 will have swappable AMD GPUs for the rest of its useful life. Sony will buy AMD and PS4 will become the first upgradable console running Linux. They will also announce a partnership agreement with Valve where if you buy a new AMD GPU and a PS4, you'll get lifetime 10% off all Steam games as long as you remain a PSN+ member. And Sea Islands was really a codename for PS4 on AMD's roadmaps.

Wait, are you serious? I can't tell. If this is true, then I find it to be completely awesome actually. I might actually consider a PS4 if I can upgrade it.

 

[RussianSensation]

Wait, are you serious? I can't tell. If this is true, then I find it to be completely awesome actually. I might actually consider a PS4 if I can upgrade it.

Nah, I just created a hypothetical Linux gaming box with upgradeable GPU path (NV or AMD) and it ties into Steam with a discount for games as an incentive to abandon traditional gaming consoles. That would be cool. Although you could probably put together a decent budget Linux box with a used GTX560Ti around an i3 or something. If Steam box offered an additional discount for Steam games as an incentive though, that would be 1 killer feature over consoles since console games are generally $10 more expensive to start.

 

[3DVagabond]

If it turns out we don't get any new cards from either AMD or nVidia, except for Titan, what are they going to do to entice us into buying? What are the AIB partners going to produce to stop the market from stagnating? How many, "Which one should I buy, an HD 7970 or a GTX 680", threads can be created before everyone either has one or knows the answer?

 

[blastingcap]

How many, "Which one should I buy, an HD 7970 or a GTX 680", threads can be created before everyone either has one or knows the answer?

How cute, you must be new here.

Some people will never buy one, and there will never be 100% agreement on the answer.

 

[3DVagabond]

How cute, you must be new here.

Some people will never buy one, and there will never be 100% agreement on the answer.

That was the rhetorical part of the post.

Any idea about the main point of it? What are they going to do to keep us interested in buying new cards?

 

[blastingcap]

What are they going to do to keep us interested in buying new cards?

A bunch of game bundles, apparently. :|

 

[3DVagabond]

A bunch of game bundles, apparently. :|

All I have to say is there are people making 6 digits to promote these cards. Generally, they do little to earn their money. They're gonna have to kick it up a few notches for the next 9 to 12 months or move to the auto industry. At least there they are guaranteed a "wash-rinse-repeat" every 12months.

 

[3DVagabond]

This is shown in an article on TechReport. It is a slide AMD was showing last month at CES. Either the reports of no new cards this year are wrong, or something has changed since CES. According to TechReport AMD said Sea Islands was the desktop and Solar System was mobile.

If this is all true (and the article showing up on AMD's Twitter feed suggests so) then it appears to be a change from what AMD announced at CES. The chipmaker's CES roadmap showed Sea Islands, the next-gen desktop Radeon family, and Solar System, the equivalent mobile lineup, covering the whole of 2013—not just the last quarter of the year, or even 2014. LINK

Here's "Mr. Devon Nekechuk (Product Manager, Desktop Graphics Product Management, Global Business Unit, AMD)". He's the guy everyone is quoting about no new cards this year. I don't know? He looks a little wet behind the ears to me. Of course the older I get they more people appear that way to me.

 

[Tsavo]

Any idea about the main point of it? What are they going to do to keep us interested in buying new cards?

Branded mouse pads, coffee mugs and t-shirts.

 

[poohbear]

The writing was on the wall for a long time with this, PC development has slowed down significantly, especially since the current crop of GPUs are way more powerful than the needs of the software/game engines which are being designed for console hardware that's 8 years old now (ie xbox 360 & PS3). Do any of u seriously need anything more powerful than a GTX 670 or 7970? i know my GTX 670 eats up everything i throw at it @? 1080p, and glad it'll stay with me for all of 2013. Ever since my 5870 lasted 3 years no problem i expected the same with this lineup, and looks like its gonna be proved true.

hopefully the next gen consoles will change things drastically in 2014, but with the current emphasis on the mobile market, not sure if even that'll pan out.

 

[poohbear]

Russiansensation i gotta say ur posts are interesting and very informative. Thanks for posting about AMD's situation and explaining everything!

Sorry, but you seem to think AMD is the win-all solution for everyone, when it's not. Look in my signature, my purchase history ranges over AMD, Intel and nvidia. In fact, I've bought more AMD-based products alone over everything else. But I don't believe in brand support, I don't harp a single solution. Why do you?

lol what? i read all his posts but never anywhere saw that as his main point! he's talking about how the GPU business is really irrelevant in the grand scheme of things for AMD as they're a CPU/APU based business with a lot of debt in that area, hence them not doing a refresh in 2013 isn't so important for them. what don't u get?

That was the rhetorical part of the post.

Any idea about the main point of it? What are they going to do to keep us interested in buying new cards?

huh? i doubt even 2% of the gaming population has a 7950/660ti or better, so for the next year they don't need a refresh to bring in new customers! There's still a huge market out there of gamers that wanna upgrade from their old cards this year (probably over 90%). We like to think us enthusiasts that upgrade every year are the target audience, but we're really a tiny minority for Nvidia & AMD.

 

[Keysplayr]

I'm willing to bet we'll see refreshes from AMD by Christmas.

 

[Ibra]

I'm willing to bet we'll see AMD dead by Christmas.

Fixed.

 

[TerryMathews]

Fixed.

Even if they go bankrupt someone will absorb it especially since they're powering the next gen gaming consoles.

AMD's IP is far too valuable to die.

 

[raghu78]

Hopefully as the pcworld article says AMD clarifies their GPU roadmap plans for 2013 and squashes all kinds of rumours and speculations. As RS said AMD's biggest liability today is their CPU division which is bleeding the company's cash.

AMD's CPU business has lost 1/3rd of its revenue compared to Q4 2011. this is disastrous. you can lookup financial tables.

http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=quarterlyearnings

AMD's biggest problem was over the last 2 years was that they kept taking CPU market share from Intel at the low end (netbooks and low end notebooks) and conceded everywhere else (servers, mid to high end desktops and notebooks). AMD were the most exposed to the part of the market which tablets have decimated - < USD 500 notebook market.

AMD's Bulldozer architecture has destroyed any chances of their server market share growth revival. instead now they are at an all time low - below 5%.

AMD failed to meet wafer purchase volume and according to their wafer supply agreement AMD had to compensate GF.

AMD have said they will

1.) improve efficiency and reduce opex to usd 450 million per quarter by Q3 2013
2.) will be deriving a significant % of their revenue from embedded and semi custom ( they have swept all three console gpus and have the cpu on ps4 and xbox next). AMD looks to be supplying finished chips rather than just licensing tech given they have designed the PS4 and Xbox next completely . This is their revenue targets - 20% of quarterly revenue by Q4 2013 and 40% of annual revenue by 2015 (by which time the next gen will be in full swing).
3.) focus their efforts and go after specific server markets where they have good value proposition - dense servers and segments which demand best perf/watt. the seamicro team has already started with highly optimized servers using low power Opteron designs and by 2014 they will have ARM based designs.

But AMD's real turnaround and long term survival depends on a very strong high end CPU architecture which can compete favourably with Intel. it might not happen with steam roller or excavator. But the generation after that might be a new microarchitecture - Jim Keller , the architect of the original Athlon 64 joined AMD last year in august. AMD's goal is to survive till late 2015 and build a breakthrough product like the Athlon 64 which takes the fight to Intel.

 

[blastingcap]

But AMD's real turnaround and long term survival depends on mobile.

Fixed that for you.

Either the reports of no new cards this year are wrong, or something has changed since CES. According to TechReport AMD said Sea Islands was the desktop and Solar System was mobile.

Read the title of this thread again. Doesn't say "all" of 2013. This has already been discussed a few times in this thread. Would not be surprised to see a late-2013 launch.

 

[tviceman]

tviceman, not sure I am buying into the theory of too much inventory build up.

SNIP

Yeah I think nvidia's cards are overpriced too, but that has nothing to do with my comment on AMD's possible inventory levels and/or reasoning for these big bundle promotions. Simple logic is really only needed to illustrate the situation here. If sales are good, no promotions are needed. If sales are sluggish and/or inventory levels are too high for a given situation, then promotions are needed. AMD would not be creating massive bundles if they weren't already very happy with existing sales and/or inventory levels.

Who says AMD is going to replace existing products with newer faster ones at the same price points of the outgoing products? That sounds dumb to me. They will price the products at a level they feel is competitive to the competition and can simultaneously maximize their sales. AMD may or may not *need* a new graphics lineup out tomorrow, but if it's ready to go by April then again, and again, and again, I say it's absolutely stupid to delay it for reasons other than technical or inventory levels of existing products. A company is first and foremost out to make money, and if new products can make more money - which is the theory behind releasing a product to being with - then get the product out. The very last time AMD decided to slow down development and delay product releases, they were surpassed by their main competitor and have since been left in the dust. As of right now, they are down in market share, they have lower ASP's than ALL their competitors, they are hemorrhaging money, and hiring outside firms to help them sell assets to keep their cash on hand stable. If there is a shiny new product that can raise ASP's, revenue, and profit, then sitting on it because "we believe our products already offer better value than the competition, even though 65% of all shoppers still choose our competitor" is characteristic of AMD's management of the last several years and is yet another reason why the company continues to struggle to make any money whatsoever.