May 6th Primaries Thread

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

And unless Obama really screws up, Obama will go over the top by July 1 anyway.

This is the worst and probably the saddest part of this whole ordeal.

Hillary's chances at the nomination no longer reside in the hands of voters...her chances no longer reside within the realm of ideas or platforms or visions for the future.

Her chances now reside in how much damage she can do to Obama's electability before the DNC, or at least before the superdelegates weigh in,

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I totally disagree here. Hillary's chances have always resided with the voters. Before May 6 she still has a chance to win and should stay because the race is still close. After May 6 and depending on the results, there will come a point where the people have spoken and given her a thumbs down. Or she could still get a sudden reversal and get a thumbs up and that keeps her in.

To assume her motives now only lie in wrecking Obama's chances is totally false as the GOP will soon discover. And only Rush Limbaugh will be left loudly masturbating into his own megaphone.

 

[Rio Rebel]

I totally disagree here. Hillary's chances have always resided with the voters. Before May 6 she still has a chance to win and should stay because the race is still close. After May 6 and depending on the results, there will come a point where the people have spoken and given her a thumbs down. Or she could still get a sudden reversal and get a thumbs up and that keeps her in.

.

What would that "reversal" look like? At this point (and even moreso after May 6), she is assured to be behind in delegate count. She is counting on superdelegates to decide to put her over the top. So it has nothing to do with any people having spoken - it is a matter of whether she can make the case that the democrats should give her the nomination on some basis other than pledged delegates (like electability).

 

[nageov3t]

will the people have spoken if Hillary leads in the popular vote? can she frame herself as the Gore to Obama's Bush?

(for the sake of the discussion, let's say Florida is made up of "people.")

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel

I totally disagree here. Hillary's chances have always resided with the voters. Before May 6 she still has a chance to win and should stay because the race is still close. After May 6 and depending on the results, there will come a point where the people have spoken and given her a thumbs down. Or she could still get a sudden reversal and get a thumbs up and that keeps her in.

.

What would that "reversal" look like? At this point (and even moreso after May 6), she is assured to be behind in delegate count. She is counting on superdelegates to decide to put her over the top. So it has nothing to do with any people having spoken - it is a matter of whether she can make the case that the democrats should give her the nomination on some basis other than pledged delegates (like electability).

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Rio Rebel asks a good question. At this point Hillary is only 140 or so delegates behind. Out of 4049 total delegates thats fairly narrow. Right now there are almost 700 delegates of all types left to win. After May 6, its narrows to only about 500 with uncounted Florida and Michigan jokers in the deck.

Right now Obama is only 279 short of the 2025 needed and will almost certainly pick up a 100 more pledged delegates on May 6 leaving him only 180 short. And after May 6, there will be only 215 elected delegates left to win. If Obama picks up half of those he will be only about 70 short. Even if Florida is seated as is, it leaves him about 20 short. Meaning the remaining 280 supers or so would have to go Hillary more than 260 to 20.

There is no way Hillary can or will tear down the Obama candidacy to that great of an extent, but an yet unknown major scandal might be able to do it. To some extent, its then good for the dems to have Hillary waiting in the wings, but still, After May 6, Hillary math
starts to look impossible unless semi-pledged to Obama super delegates defect en mass.

 

[Rio Rebel]

Originally posted by: loki8481
will the people have spoken if Hillary leads in the popular vote? can she frame herself as the Gore to Obama's Bush?

(for the sake of the discussion, let's say Florida is made up of "people.")

Can we go ahead and pick the 2012 candidate now, without bothering campaigning? If we call what happened in Florida "the people speaking", then why bother holding a campaign at all? We could just choose the most well-known, well-connected candidate and save our money for the general election.

Or better yet, just choose the most well known person overall, and not bother with a campaign at all...and save the campaign money to pay for a "holiday" on gas tax. 😉

 

[lopri]

Originally posted by: senseamp
I'll just let Democrats decide if I am voting for Hillary or McCain this November.

Are you a Republican? If not, I suggest you think hard. You can't let emotion take over your judgment. If you're independent, I would still urge you to re-assess the priorities of the problems this nation has to deal with.

 

[lopri]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel

Or better yet, just choose the most well known person overall, and not bother with a campaign at all...and save the campaign money to pay for a "holiday" on gas tax. 😉

Yes, but it was Obama who didn't want to do a re-vote and maneuvered such attempts to fail. This bothers me as much as Hillary claiming her win in Michigan. If Obama was so into 'lifting up' people, what was he afraid of? (Well, of course we know what he's afriad of, which just shows he's a politician, albeit with some smart lawyers) More than anything, shouldn't he care about his winning in those states in GE if he'd be the nominee? Even Obama supporters agreed that a revote would be a fair solution.

 

[dennilfloss]

Go Hillary! 🙂

 

[ProfJohn]

will democrats go to bed Tuesday night with a candidate?

I thought Bill Clinton couldn't run again??? 😕

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: lopri
I think after this election Dems should change this stupid nomination process. My opinion is either 1) Popular votes or 2) Winner-take-all like GOP does. If they still want to keep the proportional delegate system, they should hold Primaries only. (no caucus)

I also suggest they shorten the primary process at least by half. 5~6 months primaries are ridiculous. 2 month spread would be enough.

No way. If it wasn't for the length of this race we would not be learning all this stuff about Obama. The fact that it is coming out now actually helps the Democrats. Imagine the Rev Wright thing being dropped in the middle of September or October and Obama spending 2 weeks right before the election defending him...

When it is all said and done if Obama wins they should thank Hillary for really testing him before hand.

 

[Moonbeam]

Go Obama.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: dennilfloss
Go Hillary! 🙂

Don't you Canadiakistanis have enough problems? You gotta bring them here, too? 😀

BTW, do you now have to get a prescription from you doctor to get some Vit C tablets? 😛

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: dennilfloss
Go Hillary! 🙂

Don't you Canadiakistanis have enough problems? You gotta bring them here, too? 😀

BTW, do you now have to get a prescription from you doctor to get some Vit C tablets? 😛

Hehe, I didn't even see his post. All the fossils lovers support Hillary, except the one running as the Republican candidate.

 

[ProfJohn]

A lot of people seem to be forgetting one thing.

If Hillary gets past tomorrow in good shape the rest of the states look REALLY good for her.

5/13 West Virginia which Hillary could win by as much as 30 points according to some people. Demographically it is the perfect Hillary state with few blacks and lots of poor working class stiffs. "The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows that Clinton attracts 56% of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Obama is supported by 27%."

5/20 Oregon which should go to Obama, but hard to tell by how much. Could be as much as 10 points though.

5/20 Kentucky, another perfect Hillary state.

6/01 Puerto Rico, another great Hillary state.

6/03 Montana and South Dakota... who cares 🙂

Now just think of how it will play out in the press if Hillary does better than expected tomorrow and then goes on a streak winning 3 of the next 4 states.

 

[Starbuck1975]

No way. If it wasn't for the length of this race we would not be learning all this stuff about Obama.

By stuff, you mean Wright, which is the greatest non issue in the history of American politics, right next to the Dean scream and other media created controversies.

Imagine the Rev Wright thing being dropped in the middle of September or October and Obama spending 2 weeks right before the election defending him...

Wright wouldn't be an issue...the Republicans would and could never inject race into the discussion...Hillary gets away with it because she is a Democrat...can you imagine the uproar if McCain, or a Republican swift boat organization, attempted to make an issue of Wright...I would argue that the media response would be quite different under those circumstances.

But thanks to Hillary, McCain can very easily exploit the Wright issue because it is already on the table.

If Hillary gets past tomorrow in good shape the rest of the states look REALLY good for her.

But does not necessarily change her math problem.

Now just think of how it will play out in the press if Hillary does better than expected tomorrow and then goes on a streak winning 3 of the next 4 states.

She will definitely enjoy a bump off PA and the Wright scandal...but how does her winning streak now negate Obama's prior winning streak. Just as Hillary didn't get out of the race when the momentum was against her, why should Obama lose the nomination because she got a bump of momentum off a total non-issue in the end?

 

[jpeyton]

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

CNN just shamed Hillary on TV. They gave her a chance to say her peace about about her gas tax holiday, then showed a clip of the former labor secretary under Bill Clinton's administration saying her gas tax proposal was "stupid and dumb" (exact words).

She had the gall to say afterward that she would have to educate him about it. :laugh:

 

[ProfJohn]

Starbucks... calling something a 'non-issue' does not mean it is a non-issue. If it really was a non-issue then we would not have spent the past week talking about and Obama would not have had to give a major speech on race nor would he have to distance himself from Wright.

Now imagine if all that had happen mid-October. McCain would be going around talking about his plans for the future of the country while Obama was busying trying to stay on track. It would have been a disaster for Obama, much like the Swiftboat vets were a disaster for Kerry. In end wether the swiftboat vets had a valid point or not didn't matter, the damage was done and Kerry never recovered.

Also, this is not a Republican injected issue. The Republican Party had nothing to do with this issue gain the light of day. It was done by bloggers and right wing talk show hosts etc. The same thing could have happened in October and no one would have been able to really accuse McCain of causing the problem.

BTW you are right about Hillary and the math issue. But Hillary doesn't have to win outright, she just has to close the gap enough to get the Super's on her side.
Plus thing will get really complicated if she can add another 200,000 extra votes to her side in the next few weeks. If she can do that then her and Obama would be virtually tied when you include the FL vote, which many will see as a fair thing to do since they were both on the ballot.

 

[Rio Rebel]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

No way. If it wasn't for the length of this race we would not be able to keep preying on racial fears about Obama.

Fixed. 🙂

 

[rockyct]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Starbucks... calling something a 'non-issue' does not mean it is a non-issue. If it really was a non-issue then we would not have spent the past week talking about and Obama would not have had to give a major speech on race nor would he have to distance himself from Wright.

Now imagine if all that had happen mid-October. McCain would be going around talking about his plans for the future of the country while Obama was busying trying to stay on track. It would have been a disaster for Obama, much like the Swiftboat vets were a disaster for Kerry. In end wether the swiftboat vets had a valid point or not didn't matter, the damage was done and Kerry never recovered.

Also, this is not a Republican injected issue. The Republican Party had nothing to do with this issue gain the light of day. It was done by bloggers and right wing talk show hosts etc. The same thing could have happened in October and no one would have been able to really accuse McCain of causing the problem.

BTW you are right about Hillary and the math issue. But Hillary doesn't have to win outright, she just has to close the gap enough to get the Super's on her side.
Plus thing will get really complicated if she can add another 200,000 extra votes to her side in the next few weeks. If she can do that then her and Obama would be virtually tied when you include the FL vote, which many will see as a fair thing to do since they were both on the ballot.

She is down by 154 pledge delegates (about 135 down overall). She is not going to net any delegates tomorrow. The best case is that she doesn't lose any net delegates with the worst case of her losing maybe 15 net delegates or more. So, come Wednesday with 217 pledge delegates left she has to chip away at a 140 delegate lead.

Let's assume she'll take 60% of the remaining pledged delegates after Tues (which she won't). She would take 130 and Obama would take 87. That's a net gain for her of 43. So, now Obama would still have a delegate lead of 100. Then, of the remaining 275 super delegates, she would have to get 68% of them just to tie.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel

Originally posted by: loki8481
will the people have spoken if Hillary leads in the popular vote? can she frame herself as the Gore to Obama's Bush?

(for the sake of the discussion, let's say Florida is made up of "people.")

Can we go ahead and pick the 2012 candidate now, without bothering campaigning? If we call what happened in Florida "the people speaking", then why bother holding a campaign at all? We could just choose the most well-known, well-connected candidate and save our money for the general election.

Or better yet, just choose the most well known person overall, and not bother with a campaign at all...and save the campaign money to pay for a "holiday" on gas tax. 😉

I only remember Kerry and Bush heavily campaigning in a small handful of states in '04... should the states where they don't campaign not count?

 

[Starbuck1975]

Starbucks... calling something a 'non-issue' does not mean it is a non-issue. If it really was a non-issue then we would not have spent the past week talking about and Obama would not have had to give a major speech on race nor would he have to distance himself from Wright.

Well it is an issue because our media outlets are in a competition to provide our tabloid hungry culture with contrived controversies to debate ad nauseum.

Now imagine if all that had happen mid-October. McCain would be going around talking about his plans for the future of the country while Obama was busying trying to stay on track. It would have been a disaster for Obama, much like the Swiftboat vets were a disaster for Kerry. In end wether the swiftboat vets had a valid point or not didn't matter, the damage was done and Kerry never recovered.

Apples and Oranges...race is a deeply entrenched and emotional issue for Americans...the validity of Kerry's service record was very much a distraction, and he fell for it hand over foot, and never quite recovered...let us assume the Wright story did not see the light of day until September or October, promoted by a swift boat-esque special interest group or right wing talk radio...independents and Democrats probably wouldn't even give the story a second glance.

It was done by bloggers and right wing talk show hosts etc. The same thing could have happened in October and no one would have been able to really accuse McCain of causing the problem.

True...the media elevated the issue because it was more drama to inject into the Hillary vs. Obama soap opera...in a McCain versus Obama match-up, the racial overtones of focusing on such an issue come into question, as the dynamic is much different.

If she can do that then her and Obama would be virtually tied when you include the FL vote, which many will see as a fair thing to do since they were both on the ballot.

Florida was hardly a fair contest, regardless of the ballot slate...Michigan and Florida are out of the equation.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel

Originally posted by: loki8481
will the people have spoken if Hillary leads in the popular vote? can she frame herself as the Gore to Obama's Bush?

(for the sake of the discussion, let's say Florida is made up of "people.")

Can we go ahead and pick the 2012 candidate now, without bothering campaigning? If we call what happened in Florida "the people speaking", then why bother holding a campaign at all? We could just choose the most well-known, well-connected candidate and save our money for the general election.

Or better yet, just choose the most well known person overall, and not bother with a campaign at all...and save the campaign money to pay for a "holiday" on gas tax. 😉

I only remember Kerry and Bush heavily campaigning in a small handful of states in '04... should the states where they don't campaign not count?

They certainly shouldn't count the states that broke the rules and voted in October '04

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel

Originally posted by: loki8481
will the people have spoken if Hillary leads in the popular vote? can she frame herself as the Gore to Obama's Bush?

(for the sake of the discussion, let's say Florida is made up of "people.")

Can we go ahead and pick the 2012 candidate now, without bothering campaigning? If we call what happened in Florida "the people speaking", then why bother holding a campaign at all? We could just choose the most well-known, well-connected candidate and save our money for the general election.

Or better yet, just choose the most well known person overall, and not bother with a campaign at all...and save the campaign money to pay for a "holiday" on gas tax. 😉

I only remember Kerry and Bush heavily campaigning in a small handful of states in '04... should the states where they don't campaign not count?

They certainly shouldn't count the states that broke the rules and voted in October '04

I'd agree with that were it not for the fact that fair and within-the-rules new primaries were attempted and the Obama camp still shot them down.

 

[Starbuck1975]

I'd agree with that were it not for the fact that fair and within-the-rules new primaries were attempted and the Obama camp still shot them down.

Clinton only brought Florida and Michigan to the table once it became apparent that she required both to secure the nomination.

This whole voter disenfranchisement argument was nothing more than a diversion, thrown out by the Clinton campaign with the hope that Obama would get distracted and off message attempting to resolve an issue that had no equitable solution.

Obama was smart not to fall for the bait...candidates should not have the responsibility to solve problems or entrench themselves in debates created by the DNC and state legislatures.

 

[Lemon law]

I personally believe the GOP wet dream dream of a democratic floor fight will end up being just that, nothing but a wet dream.

And once that wet dream is safely disposed of, the GOP will have to face grim reality. For now McCain gets a pass.

And soon McCain will be viewed as the second coming of Hurbert Hoover. A clueless nice guy without a single answer.