I dunno. Following a president who says job reports are fake but then believing in them when your side says it sound pretty deranged to me.
fleshconsumed
Diamond Member
- Feb 21, 2002
- 6,486
- 2,363
- 136
There are a lot of signs that we're near the top, but I don't think we're on the cusp of downturn just yet. So long as money is free flowing I do not see any reason for a recession. The dangers are going to be feds raising interest rates too high contracting money supply, consumers tightening their wallets and not spending, or future government having to raise taxes to plug the budget gap, and raising them on the middle class causing them to slow down spending. I don't see any of these three happening right now, so I think the party will go on for a while longer.
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
That's where my thinking is too.
I've got my finger towards eject button, but I'm not hovering over it nervously. My 401 and other market investments is still very growth heavy. Need to pull back at some point.
I do think there is a growing possiblity of a recession before Nov 2020... then again this economy is not moving quickly in any direction.
We still don't know the limits of US borrowing capability, and I doubt we're in immediate trouble given we're the reserve currency.
However int rates as you mention are a concern, as well as some of the debt crises we're starting to see pop up in the rest of the world needs to have an eye on it. The trade war that matters, China, I don't think it's being managed effectively and may be a continued source of uncertainty.
Inflation is starting to grow after a decade of not being on the radar (other in the minds of the goldbug kooks), and likey to become a relevant driver again (as you said, tied back to rates.)
Question is, will we see something coming fast enough to react before it hits us? Are we acting smart enough to be confident we'll get out of the way?
Not sure of that right now.
Last edited:
fleshconsumed
Diamond Member
- Feb 21, 2002
- 6,486
- 2,363
- 136
Yeah, that's the question. I know someone (ironically a Trump supporter too) who sold right after Trump was elected because he was afraid Trump would crash the markets. He lost out on some nice gains. I'm sure there were people who sold after correction early this year too and lost when market went up again. On the other hand whoever sold before 2008 crash and bought 9 months later made out like a bandit.
95% of my money is in some form of stock ETFs/mutual funds. I figure that I have to be aggressive with my investments if I ever want to retire "on time" and in relative comfort, and since I'm relatively young I can afford to be all stocks. However, it does present a lot of risk. Personally I don't fret about market noise, it's just that, noise, if even Trump's antics can't move the markets, then we have to focus on the basics. So I'm focusing on fundamentals. For now I'm staying put, but I'm watching basic economic stats such as yield curves, unemployment rate, hiring, consumer spending, trade numbers, manufacturing numbers, and house sales/construction. If these start slowing down or turn unfavorable, then that would be a signal for me to sell.
Meghan54
Lifer
- Oct 18, 2009
- 11,684
- 5,228
- 136
And at the end of the week, Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 are all down for the week, incl. the jump on Wed. Dow down ~.75%, NASDAQ down ~1.5%, and S&P 500 down ~3.75%.
DOW lost 200 points Thurs., 180 points Fri. So what's that mean? Not much, and about the same as the upward bump on Wed.
DOW lost 200 points Thurs., 180 points Fri. So what's that mean? Not much, and about the same as the upward bump on Wed.
Texashiker
Lifer
- Dec 18, 2010
- 18,811
- 198
- 106
Obama did nothing to improve the economy. The federal reserve stimulated the economy with low interest rates. However, history shows low interest rates will take the nation only so far.
Trump is working to balance trade and help companies based in the United States be more competitive with fair and balanced trade. Thus helping to create jobs and continue grow the economy past what low interest rates would have carried us.
Please be honest. The road to the financial crash was put in place by Bill Clinton and his banking deregulation. It was just a matter of time before the system crashed, and GWB "just happened" to be president at the time. GWB did not hand Obama a bad economy, Bill Clinton did.
The bail out and low / zero interest rates given to banks by the federal reserve stimulated the economy, not Obama.
If it were not for Trumps protectionist tariffs and tax breaks, the economy would have taken a nose dive a long time ago.
Low interest rates are only part of the picture. We have to have deregulation, and people willing to take the risk to create jobs. Creating jobs in China does not help our economy. Thus we need tariffs to ensure fair and balanced trade, which is part of the Trump agenda.
This whole idea that we are under Obamas economy is a bunch of BS. Obama did nothing, zilch, zero, nada... to balance trade and grow the economy.
Texashiker
Lifer
- Dec 18, 2010
- 18,811
- 198
- 106
Why should wages go up?
Companies who can afford to offshore do. Take apple for example, they built their fortune on the backs of slave wage Chinese workers.
Who allowed all of that to happen? Every president since Richard Nixon. Take a look at when wages started to stagnate, which was in the early 1970s. Which is also when companies started to move to China.
As long as we have so called "free trade" with slave wage nations such as China, wages here in the United States will continue to go down. This is what the trade war with China is so important. We have to do something to correct the past 45+ years of offshoring.
Just so you know, adjusted for inflation, I make $6.00 and hour less than what I did in 1994.
Enough is enough. Trump may not be the president a lot of people wanted, but he is the president we needed to right our nation.
Sunburn74
Diamond Member
- Oct 5, 2009
- 5,076
- 2,635
- 136
Lol Ok. GWB just happened to be there... lol. And if not for trump and protectionism the economy would be nosediving. Lol. Funniest thing I've read in a while. Next you'll say trump deserves some sort of civil rights award or something.
I suppose GWB just happened to be there during 9/11 and he just happened to be there when the costliest war in US history ever was launched, a war we still are fighting today. Or did the Obama start the iraq war too?
If you want to be actually historically accurate, the economy under clinton was doing pretty well pretty much throughout. People got fat, started getting selfish and then voted for Bush. Then the economy sucks, they get hungry and want government to bail them out and then vote for a democrat. Then the economy gets good under the democrat, they get selfish again and vote for a republican who promises to cut their taxes.
Last edited:
fleshconsumed
Diamond Member
- Feb 21, 2002
- 6,486
- 2,363
- 136
Yes, let's be honest. The work to repeal Glass Steagall act started in 1987 under president Reagan. It was sponsored by 3 republic Senators Sen. Phil Gramm (R, Texas), Rep. Jim Leach (R, Iowa), and Rep. Thomas J. Bliley, Jr. (R, Virginia). It was voted in favor by veto-proof majority. But yeah, totally Bill Clinton fault.
theeedude
Lifer
- Feb 5, 2006
- 35,787
- 6,198
- 126
The problem with conservatism is eventually it runs out of other people's (cheap) money.
Investors are not going to lend you at low interest rate if you are running $1Trillion deficits in the good times and creating inflation. You have to pay them more to lend you money. And if bonds yield more, stocks have to yield more too, so their price to earnings has to drop accordingly.
Investors are not going to lend you at low interest rate if you are running $1Trillion deficits in the good times and creating inflation. You have to pay them more to lend you money. And if bonds yield more, stocks have to yield more too, so their price to earnings has to drop accordingly.
I love how Bill Clinton is responsible for the 2008 economy despite not having been president for eight years but Obama is not responsible for the 2018 economy despite being president only two years ago.
Anyone want to take bets that Obama will suddenly become responsible for the economy again right around the next recession? Hahaha.
umbrella39
Lifer
- Jun 11, 2004
- 13,816
- 1,126
- 126
My goodness now many socks does Riprorin have? The tug boat must have very spacious and well-appointed cabins...
Texashiker
Lifer
- Dec 18, 2010
- 18,811
- 198
- 106
How old are you? Maybe late 20s?
I worked during the Clinton economy, yes, it was good. He also continued a downhill trend that resulted in the crash of 2008. None of the other presidents did anything to stop it.
However, the real downward trend started with Nixon, accelerated by Ronald Reagan, and promoted by every following president until Trump came along.
I remember in the mid-1990s a welding shop I was working at could not find a certain type of Stainless Steel that was made in the USA. As a result we had to buy foreign steel.
If you were older than your late 20s, maybe early 30s, you would know lowering interest rates creates a cycle of ups and downs because low interest rates will take the nation only so far. On top of low interest rates we need tariffs along with fair and balanced trade agreements. Which is something Obama ignored, and Trump is working on.
The issue with Obama, he did not know how to make deals. That is why he signed so many executive orders rather than getting congress to work together.
Thank you for helping prove my point.
Just about every president since Nixon has contributed to destroying the working middle class. This is not a democrats vs republican issue. It is a problem of profit seekers sending our factories to low wage nations.
Trump is working to reverse the trend started in the early - mid 1970s. Yet people are fighting / resisting Trump? Why are people fighting against fair and balanced trade, and a global competitive corporate tax rate?
soundforbjt
Lifer
- Feb 15, 2002
- 17,788
- 6,041
- 136
In January 2016, Trump said “we have a president that can’t get anything done so he just keeps signing executive orders all over the place”.
7-30-2018
President Trump has signed 77 executive orders since taking office, 11 more than signed by Obama during the same time frame.
https://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/07/how_many_executive_orders_has.html
You were saying...
Last edited:
Texashiker
Lifer
- Dec 18, 2010
- 18,811
- 198
- 106
Welcome back, Texashiker. I strongly encourage you to question what you believe & to re-evaluate, simply because a lot of it really isn't true. I'm not trying to be adversarial in saying that, either.
What's happened to America since 1980 is that a very significant share of national income has shifted away from the lower 75% & into the top 1%. The share of the lower 50% of earners fell by a third, and the share of earners in the 50-75% range fell by a fifth. At the same time, the share of the top 1% doubled to 20%. Mere fact. See table 5-
https://taxfoundation.org/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2015-update
There are a lot of different reasons for that, technological progress being the biggest part of it. It also has to do with our concept of ownership & civic responsibility. The job creators don't see creating jobs as their responsibility, at all, especially out in smaller communities. There's more profit to be had elsewhere. And when automation lets them eliminate a lot of jobs, it just means more profit. They exploit that further in terms of wages. If you don't like that, tough, because there are plenty of guys who'll do it for what they offer. If you think hedge fund management gives a fuck about their employees, you're delusional. If you think trickle down economics has done anything but beat down working people you have it really bad, because the guys at the top put your headset right where they want it.
Meanwhile, taxes at the top are actually very regressive, with people making $60m/yr paying about the same federal tax rate as guys making $85K. That's before the recent round of GOP tax cuts.
As the rich become super-rich, they pay lower taxes. For real. - The Washington Post
What's wrong with America is that we've enabled greed at the to for 40 years. Practically worshipped it. Remember when Trump told us that he doesn't pay federal income tax because he's smart? That's not indicative of him giving a damn about this Country at all.
What's happened to America since 1980 is that a very significant share of national income has shifted away from the lower 75% & into the top 1%. The share of the lower 50% of earners fell by a third, and the share of earners in the 50-75% range fell by a fifth. At the same time, the share of the top 1% doubled to 20%. Mere fact. See table 5-
https://taxfoundation.org/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2015-update
There are a lot of different reasons for that, technological progress being the biggest part of it. It also has to do with our concept of ownership & civic responsibility. The job creators don't see creating jobs as their responsibility, at all, especially out in smaller communities. There's more profit to be had elsewhere. And when automation lets them eliminate a lot of jobs, it just means more profit. They exploit that further in terms of wages. If you don't like that, tough, because there are plenty of guys who'll do it for what they offer. If you think hedge fund management gives a fuck about their employees, you're delusional. If you think trickle down economics has done anything but beat down working people you have it really bad, because the guys at the top put your headset right where they want it.
Meanwhile, taxes at the top are actually very regressive, with people making $60m/yr paying about the same federal tax rate as guys making $85K. That's before the recent round of GOP tax cuts.
As the rich become super-rich, they pay lower taxes. For real. - The Washington Post
What's wrong with America is that we've enabled greed at the to for 40 years. Practically worshipped it. Remember when Trump told us that he doesn't pay federal income tax because he's smart? That's not indicative of him giving a damn about this Country at all.
Sunburn74
Diamond Member
- Oct 5, 2009
- 5,076
- 2,635
- 136
Well obviously the right idea is that if you tax the rich less, they will take their profits and raise wages and take care of people they could care less about as well as personally fund public schools, roads and hospitals that they would never be caught dead stepping for in.
Ultimately it's not risky unless you need to retire in the next 5-10 years (in which case you already should have shifted most of your assets from stocks to bonds for more security).
At the end of the day even if you don't sell before the market falls, it will rise again... no doubt about it. If it doesnt rise again, you have FAR more important things to worry about than money and retirement. So consider that.
Trying to time the market - while sounding awesome on paper - is historically difficult.
Timing the market is a fool’s errand for a regular person. If someone on here is genuinely able to do it they should quit whatever job they currently have and get into finance because they will make more than enough money to retire in short order with those kinds of skills.
True to a certain extent...
But I mean any decent person that works in finance right now can see that shit is massively overvalued. We live in very odd times where some of the most valuable companies are ones with no assets and no profit earnings.
Adjustable rate mortgages still exist after all, and have recently been growing again in popularity. Another housing bubble doesnt sound out of the question.
I kind of have to think at this point it's a matter of time, and one can think that come the end of 2019 there will be some type of correction.
- Mar 20, 2000
- 102,407
- 8,595
- 126
we put an aggie in charge of the banks, we shouldn't have been surprised at what happened
I'm a bottom line kind of guy. I understand things are put in motion often well before a president comes to office, but how those issues are dealt with matters. Obama kicked the can down the road with North Korea, both him and GWB did very little as Kim popped off atomic bombs in tests. Trump is taking action, but this problem was set in motion well before him. I understand where you are coming from, and I believe GWB had a tougher term than normal with 9/11 (but completely fucked up with Iraq), but Obama didn't get in the way, he helped things grow and prosper. I give Obama plenty of flack about some things, but I give him credit when it comes to our general economy improvement from the day he took office until the day he left.
Trump has been taking it to the next level now, he's rocking the boat, but so far things are shaking out in our favor and he's doing a splendid job all around and getting campaign promises fulfilled. In less than two years in he's really getting it done and so far we're simply better off for it than we were before he took office.
Last edited:
PricklyPete
Lifer
- Sep 17, 2002
- 14,582
- 162
- 106
I will have a 3/2 in WWP available in Nov... I guess I’m adding to the problem. I bought it in 2012 and it just doesn’t make sense to sell at the crazy low % I’m paying on the mortgage and the rent I will get (~3.2k).
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,978
- 31,534
- 146
In the end, all republicans believe that people should take care of themselves and that because the government is inherently evil, can't be trusted to take care of anything or anyone. So, since people should only take care of themselves... we should stop taxing the wealthy so that they will then use all of those savings to take care of the rest of us.
Because, obviously, let's let a handful of historically self-serving people do the right thing. Because of course they will. If we choose to divide and elect a thoroughly partisan government that, by design, can not possibly function, then of course we were right all along about it not being able to to function!
Basically, republicans are the biggest morons on the planet. They suffer daily from the fundamental truth that their ideology is completely broken and that they can only make terrible decisions in life. As long as there is a convenient minority to blame, though, all is good.
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 24K
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
-
Facebook
Twitter