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Market up on strong jobs data.

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Jan 25, 2011
15,997
7,372
146
On days like today and yesterday, do a lot of people buy, or sell? Or is it a mixture?
It's all over the board. You see a lot of movement of money away from stocks to fixed income vehicles or some near cash options. Mostly Money Markets etc... Today I do have more spec buyers jumping in on some buying opportunities. Tuesday was a mix back and forth.
 
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blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
20,181
632
126
It's all over the board. You see a lot of movement of money away from stocks to fixed income vehicles or some near cash options. Mostly Money Markets etc... Today I do have more spec buyers jumping in on some buying opportunities. Tuesday was a mix back and forth.
Kind of an off topic question...when I was in the game (in the 90's I had series 6, 63, and 7 license) foreign cash markets were up and coming. Do you see alot of activity there now? Just curious...
 
Jan 25, 2011
15,997
7,372
146
Kind of an off topic question...when I was in the game (in the 90's I had series 6, 63, and 7 license) foreign cash markets were up and coming. Do you see alot of activity there now? Just curious...
I switched a year ago from strictly US (7, 63 etc...) markets to Canadian clients trading in both. We did a ton of forex and futures trading on the US side but that’s now gone from my platform. Isn’t even an option now.

Canadian investors are far more conservative. My trading in derivatives now is limited to simple single leg options for the most part. I’d kil to have a conversation about iron condors or butterflies again. I barely even remember them now.
 
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,200
8,044
136
I wonder how the trump cult members will handle this little piece of news.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-trade-war-record-trade-deficit-trump-2018-12

Shrinking the US trade deficit has been a key goal of President Donald Trump's trade war.

But the US Census Bureau announced Thursday that the US trade deficit grew to $55.5 billion in the month of October, the highest in exactly 10 years. That was a 1.7% jump from September, as imports rose by 0.2% and exports fell by 0.1%.

Trump has long been focused on the trade deficit as a signal that his administration's tariffs on Chinese goods and metals are working, despite the fact that most economists discount the measure as a sign of effective trade policy.

Looking at the main target of the trade war, China, the trade deficit was similarly dismal. The unadjusted goods trade deficit hit $43.1 billion in October, the highest level ever.

While Trump may not like the results, there are good reasons the trade deficit is expanding. And part of the blame lies in the president's own policies.
Oops.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,012
2,897
136
U.S. Adds Below-Forecast 155,000 Jobs as Wage Gain Misses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-07/u-s-payrolls-rise-below-forecast-155-000-as-wage-gain-misses?srnd=premium

U.S. jobs and wages rose by less than forecast in November while the unemployment rate held at the lowest in almost five decades, indicating some moderation in a still-healthy labor market.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 after a downwardly revised 237,000 gain in the prior month, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for an increase of 198,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent from the prior month, compared with forecasts for 0.3 percent, though wages matched projections on an annual basis, up 3.1 percent for a second month.





Treasury yields initially dipped and the dollar declined as the report added to signs that economic growth is cooling a bit, following weakness in business-equipment orders and an ebbing of consumer optimism. While the data may spur more concern over the outlook after stocks and bond yields tumbled this week, some investors may see the prospect of a slower pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases as a positive following an expected hike this month, as equity futures rose following the jobs data.





“It’s not like 155,000 is a terrible number, but it’s below what people were looking for,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. After an unusually strong two quarters for the economy, “we’re looking for growth to step down this quarter and you should probably also expect to see the labor market cool off some. It’s consistent with the economy coming off what people call a sugar rush.”




For the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, “December is pretty close to a done deal,” Feroli said. “For next year, it depends what the data looks like the next couple of months. It doesn’t feel like things are softening in an alarming way. If it’s really soft, they’ll take a break.”

The jobless rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent in November, matching estimates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said late Thursday that the U.S. labor market is “very strong” by many measures and that the economy is “performing very well overall.”


Even so, one key risk is the trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. While the nations agreed last weekend on a 90-day pause for new tariffs, the accumulated levies and developments have created uncertainty for companies and may weigh on the employment outlook.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
70,136
18,910
136
So Trump engaged in massive fiscal stimulus in a strong economy and then provoked a trade war in order to make manufacturing less efficient and more costly for the average person.

This will end well I’m sure.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,012
2,897
136
So Trump engaged in massive fiscal stimulus in a strong economy and then provoked a trade war in order to make manufacturing less efficient and more costly for the average person.

This will end well I’m sure.
What did Trump call his multi-trillion dollar Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?

"Rocket fuel for the economy"


One year in, how are we doing?



In of itself the report is just meh. Considering the massive debt-driven further stimulus we've put in?

Pretty shit result. Another failed trickle down experiment.
 
Last edited:

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
29,493
2,996
126
In short, Trump's a silver spoon baby who inherited a lot of wealth, and "grew" it only at a rate equal to the market.

And Republicans think he's really smart, simply because he lies to them. His handling of the economy, for example. His tax cut stimulus was a non-starter waste, and his trade wars are undermining everything. Republicans, via Trump, have done !@#$ the bed and the American people need to hold them to account for that. First, by telling it like it is. Scream it from the rooftops people, Republican trickle down has GOT to go!
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
103,531
18,091
136
In short, Trump's a silver spoon baby who inherited a lot of wealth, and "grew" it only at a rate equal to the market.
much worse, actually. I believe most financial analysts that have looked into this say that the ave ~7% gains in the market over the last 40-50 years have significantly outperformed Trump and his "very good brain."
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
26,053
6,029
136
In short, Trump's a silver spoon baby who inherited a lot of wealth, and "grew" it only at a rate equal to the market.

And Republicans think he's really smart, simply because he lies to them. His handling of the economy, for example. His tax cut stimulus was a non-starter waste, and his trade wars are undermining everything. Republicans, via Trump, have done !@#$ the bed and the American people need to hold them to account for that. First, by telling it like it is. Scream it from the rooftops people, Republican trickle down has GOT to go!
Welcome to 2008. Americans forgot by 2010.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,012
2,897
136
Welcome to 2008. Americans forgot by 2010.
No shit man.

To add to this, the GW Bush trickle down tax cuts are still largely in effect, so we're on double dose of rocket fuel and not getting off the launch pad.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,012
2,897
136
Market is so impressed by the jobs data it decided to have another 500+ pt drop for the third day in a row.

If a human shit the bed this much you would worry they have dysentery.
 

Dulanic

Diamond Member
Oct 27, 2000
9,751
359
136
Markets like stability, Trump is the complete opposite which IMO is why the crazy volatility even during record corporate profits and low unemployment. They have to weigh the pros and the likely chance Trump will fuck it all up.
 
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zzyzxroad

Platinum Member
Jan 29, 2017
2,495
1,537
106
I'm
Tired of
Winning
Please stop!

Another 500pt drop day.
@23.6k now
:peach::eggplant:

Funny that Trump has suddenly stopped touting how great the stock market is doing. What metric will he move to next to brag about? Record corporate stock buybacks?
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
27,121
1,898
126
Funny that Trump has suddenly stopped touting how great the stock market is doing. What metric will he move to next to brag about? Record corporate stock buybacks?
Come on, that's just his tax break at work, rewarding shareholders and making everyone in america greater! Who cares about jobs, wages, and investments? We must deliver shareholder value above all else. It's a legal obligation.

/bigfatS
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,012
2,897
136
Funny that Trump has suddenly stopped touting how great the stock market is doing. What metric will he move to next to brag about? Record corporate stock buybacks?
Crimes he committed that aren't illegal? (According to his lawyers....)
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
7,873
4,874
136
I would take more delight in Slow inevitably being proven wrong if it weren't that stock market declines have real effects on people's financial welfare. Sadly, though, it might be worthwhile if it leads to Trump being ousted in 2020 and the Democrats erasing his many mistakes.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
29,493
2,996
126
I would take more delight in Slow inevitably being proven wrong if it weren't that stock market declines have real effects on people's financial welfare.
Sure, but the voters are responsible for Trump. They need to learn that elections have consequences, insofar as hopefully they won't make that mistake again. We need to help, gently, guide them to this realization.
 

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