Many Now predicting Double-Dip Recession

[dmcowen674]

Many Now predicting Double-Dip Recession

No kidding

No jobs, no get out of recession

 

[Zebo]

Don't say Zebo didn't warn y'all I have been regularly posting Zebo's budget survival guide for two solid years now. Sure most think it was loony but when heavy hitters are now finally saying we are 'going' into a depression you better get prepared.

From : Zebo

Date : 2009-03-05 20:53
Zebo's survival keys on a budget which may save your life.

1. Attitude, Free - like anything in life it all starts there - positive attitude is important to success, and all survival manuals stress it makes the difference between living or dying! Never quit. Never give up. Always look at things half full!

2. Health, Free- If we truly get into a SHTF scenario medicines will not be around so if you're taking insulin or heart medicine you're in big trouble unless you've stocked up. Exercise, be in great shape, have a resting HR less than 60 preferably. The exercise part is good for you no matter what, SHTF or Not. Live longer feel better, sleep better, have more energy etc - and will be crucial in survival situation where foraging for food, planting food or running from predators two legged and four legged will you pay big dividends.

3. A good water proof Sleeping bag $100 - When grid shuts down, you have no idea how cold world gets - In a true survival situation, most people die because of hypothermia, not because of lack of water or food. You don't want to build fires for warmth, alerts zombies to your presence, and is a waste of energy that could be used for food acquisition, building, and working instead of chopping and screwing around with fires.

4. A Rugar 10/22 and 2000 rounds ammo $300 - Can kill small game for protein and Keep Zombies at bay.... one per family is fine. Don't be going hog wild on firearms - they will be everywhere anyway if things get too bad, I see dead people, know what I'm saying?. Too much weight and all survival books say 22lr is all you really need on defensive/survivalist posture.

5. A good knife, good first aid kit and learn manual, lights and radio $300 -
*Knife obvious no other tool you need. eat with it cut, chop, baton, pry etc etc etc...
*Lights are obvious... I prefer those wind up & inertia radios and LED flashlights, Radio is to be able to hear we are out of post-apocalyptic hell and news. No batteries, batteries are too heavy and go bad quick especially if you don't keep them dry, leave them on ground or get them hot.
*First aid with manual "Where There Is No Doctor" is good - If you or a loved one is shot or has a broken leg you need to know how to deal with it before it happens. RTFM NOW. Kit should have sutures, compression packs, tourniquets and other heavy trauma fixes. You can toss the fucken foil blanket and other worthless items..

6. One month supply of food $150-$250 per person - It's better not to have to worry about food right away when SHTF
*Beans and rice are cheap and keep almost forever if stored right. Can eat for $40 a month on beans and rice!
*Canned foods will be good if static/staying in one place, last about three years depending what it is. Only issue is weight/calories ratio should you have to move.
* Peanut butter is the best all round survival food. Keeps 2 years. Don't have to prepare it and it's loaded with protein, carbs and fats. Excellent weight/calories ratio!!!

7. Peers FREE - Groups of people provide security and emotional support in many ways - You are going to have to be with honest and trustworthy people who help each other out in order to survive. No Robinson Crusoe - you won't make it.

If you have more money so be it - you know what to do with points presented... just build on them....for example I have 2 500 gallon diesel tanks I rotate keeping fresh fuel just in case for generator and truck gets it interm, have more food, more weapons, night vision, but essential jist is all above... this guide is designed to be GTG for $1000 in a go to ruck sack which just about anyone can get down with. 90% will be mental 9% physical 1% what you got.

GL

 

[dmcowen674]

Times will be not too bad until the rich are tapped out.

Then it will start getting ugly. Where it will end is well documented.

Few if any young people are even aware of the atrocities committed in the name of the form of government we'll have.

Now you're talking :thumbsup:

 

[Zebo]

We have a lot of technological holdouts.

Military technology and hardware, Medicine and Biotech, Ford is doing quite well, Green Energy technologies, and we are experts at enslaving others with debt, although we are getting beaten at our own game by the Chinese government.

A blip. A relic all easily bought out and shipped abroad with trillions of dollars foreigners hold.

Cold hard facts are
1. Our nation is bankrupt......
2. Our Bankers are immoral felonious crooks who own our representatives.
3. Bankers have totally cut off the private sector who is tapped and in debt to them.
4. Bankers have totally cut off cities, counties, and states from credit who are also tapped and in debt to them.
5. Government is last agent to be able to borrow and it's approaching a $2 trillion dollar deficit. Won't last.
6. 2/3 of the population depends in government spending to consume. That's right 2/3.
7. All pensions are bankrupt.

America has more non-productive citzens than anytime in it's history but they all want to consume. This will have to be reconciled one way or the other. Deal with it.

 

[Double Trouble]

Tax breaks do not create jobs, show me economic proof. (I'll give you a hint, i'm working toward an Econometrics masters and have written papers on this topic)

Businesses hire what they need to operate, tax breaks are pocketed.

It boggles the mind that YOU THINK THERE IS A DIFFERENCE on who spends the money. Both of them can (and regularly do) fuck it up.

First, simple logic dictates that if you lower the cost of doing business, there is more money for re-investment into the business or capital investment -- as well as more money available to do hiring (or even possibly not lay off someone). You're assuming hiring is only restrained by the operations needs, when in fact hiring can also be restrained by lack of cash. Bottom line: no matter how you turn things, a lower cost of doing business means more business spending, which spurs the economy.

Both the private sector and public sector can and do screw up with regards to how money is spent. However, screwups in the private sector (at least at the not-too-big-to-fail level) are corrected by the market. Screwups in the public sector are rarely if ever corrected, since there is no competitive pressure on the public sector to do anything better ...ever. In addition, the public sector tends to be highly unionized (further proving the point that there is no pressure to ever do better or be efficient), so once jobs are added on the public sector payrolls they tend to rarely get removed again. They become a permanent drain on society, while jobs in the private sector are trimmed and added as needed.

Further, while both the private and public sector can and do screw up spending, the fact is that only one of them can produce any long term economic growth. Hint: it's not the public sector.

 

[Attic]

Except 90% of small businesses fail in the 1st year and tax breaks don't create jobs.

I highly question both those statements and their validity. The 90% figure throws up alarms and appears absurd unless taken in extreme isolated data sets.

While tax breaks effect on job creation is debated, their stimulus to job creation by implicitly incentivising growth by lowering the costs of growth shouldn't be. What if the tax break comes in the form of relieving small business tax burdens for hiring of individual's unemployed for 60 or more days?

 

[PokerGuy]

I highly question both those statements and their validity. The 90% figure throws up alarms and appears absurd unless taken in extreme isolated data sets.

While tax breaks effect on job creation is debated, their stimulus to job creation by implicitly incentivising growth by lowering the costs of growth shouldn't be. What if the tax break comes in the form of relieving small business tax burdens for hiring of individual's unemployed for 60 or more days?

The 90% failure rate (or whatever the high actual failure rate might be) is misleading. Since you're talking about small businesses, a large percentage of them fail, but the ones that do succeed end up creating a lot of jobs and are the real driving force behind the economy. You're talking about small amounts of money to invest in the small businesses, so if a large percentage of them fail it still costs a lot less than just handing the money out as welfare or wasting it on some other government project.

 

[charrison]

The 90% failure rate (or whatever the high actual failure rate might be) is misleading. Since you're talking about small businesses, a large percentage of them fail, but the ones that do succeed end up creating a lot of jobs and are the real driving force behind the economy. You're talking about small amounts of money to invest in the small businesses, so if a large percentage of them fail it still costs a lot less than just handing the money out as welfare or wasting it on some other government project.

and Small business by govt standards is having up to 500 employees.

 

[soccerballtux]

It doesn't look good folks. Lately I 've been hearing economists and financial types on TV speak of emerging signs that we'll soon enter anoth phase of recession or even depression (Klugman in particular).

25 signs of a double-dip recession approaching:

http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy...-expecting-a-us-double-dip-recession-in-2010/

A technical explanation for why a double dip recession looks imminent:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100628.htm

For many of us who felt the Dem's stimulous package was poorly designed, this was our fear - we now don't really have any money left to try again but get it right. We blew good money on bad medicine and now can't afford the real cure.

Am curious to see the June employment data.

Fern

who is Klugman? Krugman?
IMO, he thinks we need more stimulus, that's why he's beating the recession drum.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Many Now predicting Double-Dip Recession

LOL

Must be Election Season: Fern starts a troll thread
(better talk down the economy, huh?)


Consumer expectations and sentiments are increasing steadily --- at the highest levels in more than 2 years. Gross private domestic investment and personal expenditures are up, as are exports/imports. Government consumption / expenditures are down (and depending upon your perspective this may/may not be a good thing).

Being that employment is a lagging indicator (and not surprisingly, *many* people outside ATP&N understand that ) the scenario is not all roses; but, reported job losses are way down. Folks will remain cautious --- no one anticipates significant declines in unemployment over the next year --- so effectively people are being prudent. That's a good thing.

The question really is, why does anyone want to pump the prospect of a double-dip for partisan political purposes? Is this where we are, today, in America?

If so, a pox on all our houses (oh ... wait a sec )





--

 

[StageLeft]

Technical double dip or not this economy is, best case, going to flounder for years to come in my estimation. We've now seen a couple of years of government throwing money at this and every country is either in the same state or worse. It's done nothing but kick the can down the road. Europe is starting to unravel, US unemployment is resisting this nonsense, housing still getting worse.

 

[Thump553]

I've always thought the possibility of a double dip was way overstated, especially where our government took the correct remedial action by stimulus spending. But the unforeseen Gulf Oil spill has intervened and in my view that is going to put a huge whammy on both employment and the economy in general. It's like the Dust Bowl occurring during the Great Depression.

 

[Jaskalas]

The question really is, why does anyone want to pump the prospect of a double-dip for partisan political purposes? Is this where we are, today, in America?

That's where we were under Bush. Lo and behold, the economy is actually in trouble and we have the audacity to talk about it.

 

[BlahBlahYouToo]

Okay, I'll play the game, you are on the spot. The next stimulous where do spend it and how do you spend it? I don't wanna hear about the mistakes of the dems, I want you post your plan.

as soon as you post your plan to save NJ which i called you out on 10 times without a response.

 

[rudder]

There is plenty of money left to avert it, there is just NO political will to do so.
.

Would you care to elaborate on the "there is plenty of money left to avert it" comment? I am curious as to which money you are referring to in this case.

 

[Genx87]

Why would anybody be surprised by this? Govt spending in blips like this is just temporary. Everybody knows this and subsequently plans for after the blip passes. The govt could have spent 2.5 trillion like every keyensian economist wanted and it wont change the fact business and people know it has a shelf life. And there is uncertaintly after that shelf life. When the govt spending was cut under FDR a recession within the great depression happened. When the spending runs out here we will see similar results.

It also doesnt help Cap N Tax is still on the table and we are only learning the true costs of health care reform. I'd keep my money on the sideline as well if I were an investor. No idea where this govt is taking us and how much damage will be done.

 

[Genx87]

Would you care to elaborate on the "there is plenty of money left to avert it" comment? I am curious as to which money you are referring to in this case.

I think he meant plenty of ink left for the printing presses.

 

[Jaskalas]

No idea where this govt is taking us and how much damage will be done.

Apparently in their ideal government run economy, the only damage done is by Republicans who want to stop the gravy train.

 

[theeedude]

Would you care to elaborate on the "there is plenty of money left to avert it" comment? I am curious as to which money you are referring to in this case.

We have ample access to credit markets.

 

[Budmantom]

This is the Obama economy, summer of recovery - jobs lost or inflated.

 

[spidey07]

This is the Obama economy, summer recovery - jobs lost or inflated.

Just wait until the job numbers come out tomorrow. It is NOT going to be pretty.

 

[boomerang]

Just wait until the job numbers come out tomorrow. It is NOT going to be pretty.

The usual spin will be put on it and many (here included) will buy it hook, line and sinker.

 

[ModestGamer]

let me ask a qeustion all the menusha aside. what is the economy beyond perception ?

are housing price not a perception ???

if money doesn't circulate then the economy is bad. if it does the economy is good. The money itself is a illusion.

think about it

There were/are many things wrong with the economy. It fell into the crapper because people were optimistic and believed it was good when it really wasn't. Returning to that state will just result in another fall. Housing prices didn't collapse just because people were scared. Quite the opposite in fact.

This lousy attempt at recovery and the impending double dip recession is the perfect example of that. We pumped money into the banks, financed by deficit spending; only to have them turn around and buy our new debt and collect the guaranteed interest so they could return to profitability. As they become profitable they play the market like they did before, riding it on the way up because, you know, the banks are profitable again so everything is getting better. The markets pick up, the banks make more money with high frequency trading and the like. The recovery has been people believing things were getting better, but since they really haven't the bottom will fall out again.

 

[Budmantom]

Just wait until the job numbers come out tomorrow. It is NOT going to be pretty.

Barry is focused 100% on destroying JOBS JOBS JOBS and it shows.

 

[HendrixFan]

let me ask a qeustion all the menusha aside. what is the economy beyond perception ?

are housing price not a perception ???

if money doesn't circulate then the economy is bad. if it does the economy is good. The money itself is a illusion.

think about it

Perception certainly does matter, but not to the extent that fundamentals do. Fundamentals are what an economy is built on (whatever it may be given the time or region), and perception can mask things but eventually the truth appears.

There is real wealth out there in labor and materials. Labor refines material and makes products which have a value. The economy is made up of real value. Perception can color or alter the real value, but only for so long if the perception isn't accurate.

Housing prices should not be a perception. If it costs $X to build a house (permits, labor, materials, etc) that is a fair value, depending also on the cost of the location. Perceptions allow the middlemen to make more of a markup but only for so long. Why pay $400k for a house when you can build one yourself for $100k? Home values have historically held price around 3 times a person's income. Median house prices are historically around 3 times the median income. If a house is too expensive, then a homeowner can't easily afford to pay for it.

The housing market bottoming out was for these two reasons. Homes were overvalued beyond what it cost to build them, this is not sustainable. Home values went up far beyond the increase in household income, pricing itself out of the market. Home values have to drop back into the range of income, or income has to be inflated to match current home values.