Many Now predicting Double-Dip Recession

[boomerang]

Seems to me he loves everyone, white and black just the same. Maybe you missed it, but these are his grandparents who raised him to be President of The United States.

Tell us what you know about these two. Tell us what you know of Obama's background.

 

[sandorski]

We are not headed for depression without a 2nd stimulus. and who is he?

"He" is the one you Quoted and agreed with.

 

[MotF Bane]

LOL, our resident economists said we'd be "out of this mess in 12 months." That was well over a year ago. We bailed out the banks, run up the debt with stimulus, and now we hear "things are going to get worse."

WELL, NO FUCKING SHIT.

This.

 

[Zebo]

Well as for who spends it, I can't say honestly if you are right or wrong. As for infrastructure improvements, I think the debate is what is considered infrastructure. Obama is trying to a make move to allow the use of nuclear power viable. But he ain't getting much help from republicans depsite their clammering that nuclear is the answer.

I am going to make a statement that will be unpopular. Huge invetsments in small businesses is a mistake. Talk about a poor return on the dollar. Especially in todays situation. Far to many small businesses fail and too many provide less than long term employment. Another block of folks who imo get to many breaks.

As for the last part of the post, a small business owner is not going to hire someone out of his own pocket. Small businesses rely to much on profit, where a medium to large business many times will hire employees to improve the quality or service part of their business even at a loss. I think small business has become a nice catch phrase, but far to unpredictable for serious investment. Investments should only go into businesses that have sustained a presence for certain amount of time.

We don't do it to help one dude hire a cat off the street for $7. We do it because Microsoft started with 3 employees (and every other fortune 500)

 

[Double Trouble]

The trouble with the stimulus was that it was exactly the opposite of what it should be, it was done backward.

The stimulus was basically massive spending by the government, more investment in the sector that does not produce anything (government), and none in the sector that does (private sector). More handouts in terms of welfare and other social spending, but nothing in the way of investment in small business that can actually produce growth. There should have been a massive investment in the private sector, small business credits, credits for hiring by small businesses, elimination of fees for starting a business, immediate tax reduction. At the same time, government spending should have been slashed at all levels to trim the fat of the bloated government.

The only additional spending that should be done by the government at this point is spending on infrastructure with a long term (10+ year) payout. Not repaving roads that don't need paved, not throwing extra money at all levels of local government to help them retain unproductive employees that they should not have had anyway. It just makes the problem worse in the long run.

The "stimulus" basically gave us a small short term burst while screwing us all in the long run. It was done completely backward.

For some reason we always seem to forget: with the exception of R&D, government - no matter how efficient - doesn't produce anything or grow the economy. Done right, it can create a good environment for private business to flourish, but it doesn't produce anything. Massive investment in a sector that can never produce anything in the long run is fail.

 

[BoberFett]

Dude you seriously need mental help. I honestly would not be shocked if you went postal like Timothy McVeigh. You need some medication.

Aren't you the one who has threatened me physically like some kind of silly e-thug numerous times? Talk about needing medication...

 

[classy]

Aren't you the one who has threatened me physically like some kind of silly e-thug numerous times? Talk about needing medication...

What? I have never ever threatened you with physical violence. Never. I do hope one day we meet face to face, you know just to meet as ole friends and maybe get a cup of coffee. I know a great place we can go

 

[Acanthus]

The trouble with the stimulus was that it was exactly the opposite of what it should be, it was done backward.

The stimulus was basically massive spending by the government, more investment in the sector that does not produce anything (government), and none in the sector that does (private sector). More handouts in terms of welfare and other social spending, but nothing in the way of investment in small business that can actually produce growth. There should have been a massive investment in the private sector, small business credits, credits for hiring by small businesses, elimination of fees for starting a business, immediate tax reduction. At the same time, government spending should have been slashed at all levels to trim the fat of the bloated government.

The only additional spending that should be done by the government at this point is spending on infrastructure with a long term (10+ year) payout. Not repaving roads that don't need paved, not throwing extra money at all levels of local government to help them retain unproductive employees that they should not have had anyway. It just makes the problem worse in the long run.

The "stimulus" basically gave us a small short term burst while screwing us all in the long run. It was done completely backward.

Except 90% of small businesses fail in the 1st year and tax breaks don't create jobs.

It should have been used to put people to work, even if the money went to social programs. Fixing roads, buildling highways, bridges, light rail, building prisons, renovating govt buildings, dams, power plants, sewers, cleaning up parks, dredging rivers, anything to keep people working for money. The concept that the money would be better spent handing it someone else to fuck it up boggles the mind.

 

[MotF Bane]

Except 90% of small businesses fail in the 1st year and tax breaks don't create jobs.

It should have been used to put people to work, even if the money went to social programs. Fixing roads, buildling highways, bridges, light rail, building prisons, renovating govt buildings, dams, power plants, sewers, cleaning up parks, dredging rivers, anything to keep people working for money. The concept that the money would be better spent handing it someone else to fuck it up boggles the mind.

But you're perfectly okay with that "someone else" being the government. :hmm:

 

[BoberFett]

What? I have never ever threatened you with physical violence. Never. I do hope one day we meet face to face, you know just to meet as ole friends and maybe get a cup of coffee. I know a great place we can go

I'm not a coffee drinker, but I'd be happy to drink a beer with you.

 

[classy]

I'm not a coffee drinker, but I'd be happy to drink a beer with you.

That would be cool. Even play one of my favorite tunes while we have a drink

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWTD-nXadaI


Now this is just a joke, so don't go all "Thats So Raven" on me

 

[Double Trouble]

Except 90% of small businesses fail in the 1st year and tax breaks don't create jobs.

That's just flat out wrong. Tax breaks DO create jobs. By reducing the amount of overhead that a business has to pay, it leaves more money for investment and hiring.

It should have been used to put people to work, even if the money went to social programs. Fixing roads, buildling highways, bridges, light rail, building prisons, renovating govt buildings, dams, power plants, sewers, cleaning up parks, dredging rivers, anything to keep people working for money.

Keeping people working is a good thing, but none of those things create long term growth, and none of them significantly contribute to growing the economy.

The concept that the money would be better spent handing it someone else to fuck it up boggles the mind.

Wait... you think having the private sector spend the money boggles your mind.... but having the one entity that has proven itself throughout history to be the most inefficient, clueless and wasteful spend it seems like a great idea? Wow.

 

[classy]

That's just flat out wrong. Tax breaks DO create jobs. By reducing the amount of overhead that a business has to pay, it leaves more money for investment and hiring.



Keeping people working is a good thing, but none of those things create long term growth, and none of them significantly contribute to growing the economy.



Wait... you think having the private sector spend the money boggles your mind.... but having the one entity that has proven itself throughout history to be the most inefficient, clueless and wasteful spend it seems like a great idea? Wow.

God I think if read one more republican saying tax cuts and tax breaks create jobs I'll scream. For 8 years we gave tax cuts and tax breaks till we went dizzy under Bush and we lost over 8 million jobs. There is no single magic bullet. And in recent history, last 20 years, tax cuts have done very little to create jobs. Our best growth was under Clinton and he taxed people hard. But he used the money in the right way, balanced the budget, and he did not waste the surplus.

 

[Slew Foot]

God I think if read one more republican saying tax cuts and tax breaks create jobs I'll scream. For 8 years we gave tax cuts and tax breaks till we went dizzy under Bush and we lost over 8 million jobs. There is no single magic bullet. And in recent history, last 20 years, tax cuts have done very little to create jobs. Our best growth was under Clinton and he taxed people hard. But he used the money in the right way, balanced the budget, and he did not waste the surplus.

Clinton was lucky he got out before the internet bubble crapped. If his term ended in 2002, you would have been calling him a dumbass. Likewise, if GWB got out in 2006, he would have been praised.

 

[Dekasa]

Clinton was lucky he got out before the internet bubble crapped. If his term ended in 2002, you would have been calling him a dumbass. Likewise, if GWB got out in 2006, he would have been praised.

GWB was a failure in 2003. He never would have been praised.

 

[MikeMike]

Let me go on record and predict that during this 'double dip' marijuana becomes a largely regulated, but free industry, similar to that of alcohol, in order to stimulate the tax base, and create "legit" industry.

 

[Double Trouble]

God I think if read one more republican saying tax cuts and tax breaks create jobs I'll scream. For 8 years we gave tax cuts and tax breaks till we went dizzy under Bush and we lost over 8 million jobs. There is no single magic bullet. And in recent history, last 20 years, tax cuts have done very little to create jobs. Our best growth was under Clinton and he taxed people hard. But he used the money in the right way, balanced the budget, and he did not waste the surplus.

1) you assume I'm a republican, I'm not.
2) so in your world, does raising taxes and thus increasing expenses make businesses more likely to hire? What are you smoking?
3) The president does not control the budget, congress does. And guess which party held congress while Clinton was president? Times were good while Clinton was president because the economy was booming prior to the dot com bubble bursting. The budget was not balanced because spending was kept in check, it was in balance because income rose dramatically for a while, before the inevitable crash.

Tax cuts are not a magic bullet, there is no such thing. As part of a balanced approach of limiting spending, tax cuts targeted at businesses hiring people makes perfect sense.

 

[nonlnear]

Let me go on record and predict that during this 'double dip' marijuana becomes a largely regulated, but free industry, similar to that of alcohol, in order to stimulate the tax base, and create "legit" industry.

If that's what it takes, then bring on the second dip! And no, I don't smoke - or eat the special brownies.

 

[Acanthus]

That's just flat out wrong. Tax breaks DO create jobs. By reducing the amount of overhead that a business has to pay, it leaves more money for investment and hiring.



Keeping people working is a good thing, but none of those things create long term growth, and none of them significantly contribute to growing the economy.



Wait... you think having the private sector spend the money boggles your mind.... but having the one entity that has proven itself throughout history to be the most inefficient, clueless and wasteful spend it seems like a great idea? Wow.

Tax breaks do not create jobs, show me economic proof. (I'll give you a hint, i'm working toward an Econometrics masters and have written papers on this topic)

Businesses hire what they need to operate, tax breaks are pocketed.

It boggles the mind that YOU THINK THERE IS A DIFFERENCE on who spends the money. Both of them can (and regularly do) fuck it up.

 

[dahunan]

LOL, our resident economists said we'd be "out of this mess in 12 months." That was well over a year ago. We bailed out the banks, run up the debt with stimulus, and now we hear "things are going to get worse."

WELL, NO FUCKING SHIT.

You know that no "bailouts" happened. They wouldn't do that with your money. Your money provided "handouts" after the raping of our citizens ... Isn't that sweet.. they intentionally fuck over everyone... and then THEN.. guess what..

They come back for some more... and get "handouts" ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEbRFc8O0QA

Big money goes around the world
Big money underground
Big money got a mighty voice
Big money make no sound
Big money pull a million strings
Big money hold the prize
Big money weave a mighty web
Big money draw the flies

Sometimes pushing people around
Sometimes pulling out the rug
Sometimes pushing all the buttons
Sometimes pulling out the plug
Its the power and the glory
Its a war in paradise
Its a cinderella story
On a tumble of the dice

Big money goes around the world
Big money take a cruise
Big money leave a mighty wake
Big money leave a bruise
Big money make a million dreams
Big money spin big deals
Big money make a mighty head
Big money spin big wheels

Sometimes building ivory towers
Sometimes knocking castles down
Sometimes building you a stairway --
Lock you underground
Its that old-time religion
Its the kingdom they would rule
Its the fool on television
Getting paid to play the fool

(Solo)

Its the power and the glory
Its a war in paradise
Its a cinderella story
On a tumble of the dice

Big money goes around the world
Big money give and take
Big money done a power of good
Big money make mistakes
Big money got a heavy hand
Big money take control
Big money got a mean streak
Big money got no soul...

 

[ModestGamer]

Run lemmings run.

 

[woolfe9999]

The first question to be answered is who spends it?

I think it fair to say almost everyone, whether Rep, Dem or Indie, agreed we needed a stim plan, but the initial and fundamental disagreement was who gets to spend it? The Dem's expressed concern that if it was people, they'ds just use the money to pay down debt and not spend it. So they went with government spending. I can agree to that to the extent it's real infrastructure improvements (not just freakin repaving type stuff). The complaint is that doesn't move quickly at all. But I still think it should done. (And yet it's the Dems who speak of don't "let perfect be the enemy of good", go figure).

Incentives need to heavily directed at small business; that's not been done at all despite promises by obama. Small businesses are the ones who hire etc. There are an awful lot of people who would like start a new small business, if only because they are unemployed (in fact, the IRS has reported a substanial increase in new small businesses because people can't find a job and have little other choice). A good way to help here is expanded SBA loans, regular banks aren't lending now. Target new SBA guaranteed loans for new small business that want to start up, or existing ones that want to expand. These just need to be guarantees, not subsidies. While some losses can be expected, it should be far less expensive as many will be able to pay back the money.

You'd also want to encourage investment in equipment, software and employees etc. You're incentivizing productivity and employment. Accelerated deductions and credits for new employees (that's cheaper than unemployment and welfare type benefits) targeted at small business would, I think, be enormously helpful.

That should be enough for a damn good start.

Fern

Your analysis sounds cogent, Fern. But the actual bill had tax cuts directed at small businesses, and did have expanded SBA loans (with loan fees being eliminated, etc.). Now, if what you're saying is that the stimulus didn't do enough for small businesses, that is a reasonable opinion which can be debated. But you said nothing was done "at all." That isn't reality as I understand it.

Example:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/16/smallbusiness/smallbiz_stimulus.smb/index.htm

- wolf

 

[ModestGamer]

The economy will be bad as long as people are scared and they belive it is bad.

 

[HendrixFan]

The economy will be bad as long as people are scared and they belive it is bad.

There were/are many things wrong with the economy. It fell into the crapper because people were optimistic and believed it was good when it really wasn't. Returning to that state will just result in another fall. Housing prices didn't collapse just because people were scared. Quite the opposite in fact.

This lousy attempt at recovery and the impending double dip recession is the perfect example of that. We pumped money into the banks, financed by deficit spending; only to have them turn around and buy our new debt and collect the guaranteed interest so they could return to profitability. As they become profitable they play the market like they did before, riding it on the way up because, you know, the banks are profitable again so everything is getting better. The markets pick up, the banks make more money with high frequency trading and the like. The recovery has been people believing things were getting better, but since they really haven't the bottom will fall out again.

 

[First]

Yawn placeholder bump.