Many Now predicting Double-Dip Recession

[charrison]

I keep seeing utter confusion like this and am astounded.

Cap-n-trade concerns emmissions from electrical generating plants. What the heck does that have to do with oil/petroleum?

Basically not a damn thing.

A whopping 1% of our electrical power comes from petroleum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2008_US_electricity_generation_by_source_v2.png

You can cap-n-trade all you want, it will have no effect on our need for oil.

Fern

That and there is not much that can effectively replace those liquid fuels now.

 

[glenn1]

Clearly, you have no Idea what a Depression is.

Sure I do.

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

 

[CADsortaGUY]

I think the economy will flounder for quite some time, but I doubt we will see a true double dip recession (negative GDP for 2 consecutive qtrs), I think all the experts are bearish because they didn't see the typical sustained post recession bounce that normally occurs, but this was a different recession than those in the past.

Yep, different recession because the gov't response to it. It's done nothing but extend it and possibly make it worse due to the unknown policies of the statists in charge.
Would you try to expand your business when you don't know what tax/regulation/etc might come down on you shortly? Didn't think so.

 

[classy]

The first question to be answered is who spends it?

I think it fair to say almost everyone, whether Rep, Dem or Indie, agreed we needed a stim plan, but the initial and fundamental disagreement was who gets to spend it? The Dem's expressed concern that if it was people, they'ds just use the money to pay down debt and not spend it. So they went with government spending. I can agree to that to the extent it's real infrastructure improvements (not just freakin repaving type stuff). The complaint is that doesn't move quickly at all. But I still think it should done. (And yet it's the Dems who speak of don't "let perfect be the enemy of good", go figure).

Incentives need to heavily directed at small business; that's not been done at all despite promises by obama. Small businesses are the ones who hire etc. There are an awful lot of people who would like start a new small business, if only because they are unemployed (in fact, the IRS has reported a substanial increase in new small businesses because people can't find a job and have little other choice). A good way to help here is expanded SBA loans, regular banks aren't lending now. Target new SBA guaranteed loans for new small business that want to start up, or existing ones that want to expand. These just need to be guarantees, not subsidies. While some losses can be expected, it should be far less expensive as many will be able to pay back the money.

You'd also want to encourage investment in equipment, software and employees etc. You're incentivizing productivity and employment. Accelerated deductions and credits for new employees (that's cheaper than unemployment and welfare type benefits) targeted at small business would, I think, be enormously helpful.

That should be enough for a damn good start.

Fern

Well as for who spends it, I can't say honestly if you are right or wrong. As for infrastructure improvements, I think the debate is what is considered infrastructure. Obama is trying to a make move to allow the use of nuclear power viable. But he ain't getting much help from republicans depsite their clammering that nuclear is the answer.

I am going to make a statement that will be unpopular. Huge invetsments in small businesses is a mistake. Talk about a poor return on the dollar. Especially in todays situation. Far to many small businesses fail and too many provide less than long term employment. Another block of folks who imo get to many breaks.

As for the last part of the post, a small business owner is not going to hire someone out of his own pocket. Small businesses rely to much on profit, where a medium to large business many times will hire employees to improve the quality or service part of their business even at a loss. I think small business has become a nice catch phrase, but far to unpredictable for serious investment. Investments should only go into businesses that have sustained a presence for certain amount of time.

 

[sandorski]

Sure I do.

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

Srsly, you have no Idea.

 

[spidey07]

Most likely going to happen. Trying to sell my wifes house in historically low rates, in one of the most desirable areas of the city at under market value just isn't happening.

People are holding onto their wallets and money. The obama effect is in full swing.

 

[charrison]

Well as for who spends it, I can't say honestly if you are right or wrong. As for infrastructure improvements, I think the debate is what is considered infrastructure. Obama is trying to a make move to allow the use of nuclear power viable. But he ain't getting much help from republicans depsite their clammering that nuclear is the answer.

What republicans are stopping nuclear power? It was harry reid that shut down yukka mountain.

As for the last part of the post, a small business owner is not going to hire someone out of his own pocket. Small businesses rely to much on profit, where a medium to large business many times will hire employees to improve the quality or service part of their business even at a loss. I think small business has become a nice catch phrase, but far to unpredictable for serious investment. Investments should only go into businesses that have sustained a presence for certain amount of time.

They aint gonna hire anyone that is not worth their wages either.

 

[charrison]

Srsly, you have no Idea.

The problem is, he is right. The markets have to hit bottom before they can recover, so far we have only been trying to hide the bottom. Housing tax credit went away and sales dropped, is anyone surprised.

 

[classy]

Most likely going to happen. Trying to sell my wifes house in historically low rates, in one of the most desirable areas of the city at under market value just isn't happening.

People are holding onto their wallets and money. The obama effect is in full swing.

People been holding onto to their wallets since 2003, where you been spinning your spidey webs at?

 

[sandorski]

The problem is, he is right. The markets have to hit bottom before they can recover, so far we have only been trying to hide the bottom. Housing tax credit went away and sales dropped, is anyone surprised.

Incorrect.

 

[charrison]

Incorrect.

While the housing market is generally recovering, sales have dropped back down since the 8k tax credit went away. This is a fact.


And there one one house that got claimed by that credit 70 times!

 

[bfdd]

So, when you Succeed in getting Fail, what will you do in order to not Reward it? :\

You can't succeed in failing. Why do you even waste time posting?

 

[sandorski]

While the housing market is generally recovering, sales have dropped back down since the 8k tax credit went away. This is a fact.


And there one one house that got claimed by that credit 70 times!

He is Incorrect. No one wants a Depression and there is no need for one.

 

[sandorski]

You can't succeed in failing. Why do you even waste time posting?

I often wonder the same thing, but as long as there's Fail, someone needs to point it out as such.

 

[charrison]

He is Incorrect. No one wants a Depression and there is no need for one.

We are not headed for depression without a 2nd stimulus. and who is he?

 

[spidey07]

People been holding onto to their wallets since 2003, where you been spinning your spidey webs at?

What the hell are you talking about? When did the crash in consumer confidence start? What did the market do from 2003-2008? What kind of growth did we have? How much did the lifes of Americans improve from 2003-2008?

A whole hell of a lot. Since Obama came into office he has willfully destroyed any confidence in capital investment. If this fucker keeps up with his bashing of private industry he is going to single handily fuck this entire nation. Naw, naw, naw, though, reject white and middle class America.

Fuck that fucking piece of shit fucker. Fuck Obama.

Classy racist is still racist.

 

[boomerang]

You've got to give this bunch credit where credit is due. Virtually everything they've done goes counter to common sense. They've done it despite history telling us it's wrong. They've done it despite the people telling them it's wrong. They've gotten little resistance and they've managed to minimize and marginalize that resistance to a great degree.

When the economy collapses, they'll be in place with "the answers". The people will be so desperate for leadership, they'll latch onto anyone who says they have the answer. Times will be not too bad until the rich are tapped out. Then it will start getting ugly. Where it will end is well documented. Few if any young people are even aware of the atrocities committed in the name of the form of government we'll have.

The next posts you read will be by those that think that this time, they're going to get it right. That this time, they've got the right people. The people who are "smarter than the rest of you". Whether you choose to believe that shit or not is your decision. The outcome will be the same.

 

[Acanthus]

There weren't really any tax cuts in the stimulous bill.

The vast majority were subsidies to lower income types. It's only for political reasons and administrative convience they are even administered by the IRS.

IMO, as a tax professional, the only item that can reasonable be called a tax cut was the AMT provision. They again adjusted the exemption amount for cost-of-living increases. But they've done this every year at the last minute (one time it held up tax returns, it was so late the IRS didn't have the tax forms ready). IMO, they would've done it even if there were no stimulous. The AMT primarily hits those in high-tax urban areas, a Democrat demographic. Plus, it just makes no real sense to have people get hit by AMT just because of inflation.

Fern

Half of ARRA was tax cuts or temporary tax relief.

That half could have put people to work.

It was a concession republicans wanted, and they all voted against it anyway.

 

[Acanthus]

You've got to give this bunch credit where credit is due. Virtually everything they've done goes counter to common sense. They've done it despite history telling us it's wrong. They've done it despite the people telling them it's wrong. They've gotten little resistance and they've managed to minimize and marginalize that resistance to a great degree.

When the economy collapses, they'll be in place with "the answers". The people will be so desperate for leadership, they'll latch onto anyone who says they have the answer. Times will be not too bad until the rich are tapped out. Then it will start getting ugly. Where it will end is well documented. Few if any young people are even aware of the atrocities committed in the name of the form of government we'll have.

The next posts you read will be by those that think that this time, they're going to get it right. That this time, they've got the right people. The people who are "smarter than the rest of you". Whether you choose to believe that shit or not is your decision. The outcome will be the same.

Your entire post is ambiguous.

 

[Acanthus]

What the hell are you talking about? When did the crash in consumer confidence start? What did the market do from 2003-2008? What kind of growth did we have? How much did the lifes of Americans improve from 2003-2008?

A whole hell of a lot. Since Obama came into office he has willfully destroyed any confidence in capital investment. If this fucker keeps up with his bashing of private industry he is going to single handily fuck this entire nation. Naw, naw, naw, though, reject white and middle class America.

Fuck that fucking piece of shit fucker. Fuck Obama.

Classy racist is still racist.

Please explain to me where any of your post is backed by facts.

Blue collar pay has not kept up with inflation for 20+ years.
The job losses were mostly on the republican watch.

How has Obama "bashed private industry"? or "ignored the middle class"? where does race come into economics at all?

I'm a liberal, and there's plenty in ARRA and the policy moving forward that I don't like, but nothing you are saying is backed by facts or... reality.

 

[classy]

What the hell are you talking about? When did the crash in consumer confidence start? What did the market do from 2003-2008? What kind of growth did we have? How much did the lifes of Americans improve from 2003-2008?

A whole hell of a lot. Since Obama came into office he has willfully destroyed any confidence in capital investment. If this fucker keeps up with his bashing of private industry he is going to single handily fuck this entire nation. Naw, naw, naw, though, reject white and middle class America.

Fuck that fucking piece of shit fucker. Fuck Obama.

Classy racist is still racist.

Dude you seriously need mental help. I honestly would not be shocked if you went postal like Timothy McVeigh. You need some medication.

 

[Zebo]

I liken USA to a trust fund baby who has no education no value and blows their millions get millions in debt and wonders what to do now.

We make nothing world wants he'll we don't even make anything we want. Have no wherewithal to do so and are in massive debt. It'll take 20 years of hard times before we get back to basics our grandparents preached.

 

[classy]

Naw, naw, naw, though, reject white and middle class America.

Fuck that fucking piece of shit fucker. Fuck Obama.

Classy racist is still racist.

Seems to me he loves everyone, white and black just the same. Maybe you missed it, but these are his grandparents who raised him to be President of The United States.

 

[Acanthus]

Most likely going to happen. Trying to sell my wifes house in historically low rates, in one of the most desirable areas of the city at under market value just isn't happening.

People are holding onto their wallets and money. The obama effect is in full swing.

Where do you live spidey? not address, just general area?

Of course no one is buying a house now... The tax incentives are gone. Things will return to normal after a few months.

 

[Acanthus]

I liken USA to a trust fund baby who has no education no value and blows their millions get millions in debt and wonders what to do now.

We make nothing world wants he'll we don't even make anything we want. Have no wherewithal to do so and are in massive debt. It'll take 20 years of hard times before we get back to basics our grandparents preached.

We have a lot of technological holdouts.

Military technology and hardware, Medicine and Biotech, Ford is doing quite well, Green Energy technologies, and we are experts at enslaving others with debt, although we are getting beaten at our own game by the Chinese government.