London is cracking down on knives

[fskimospy]

London has a higher murder rate than NYC. Acid attacks (nonexistent in the past) are now a thing and rising rapidly (500+).

The demographics of England have changed more rapidly in the past 20 years than at any time in its history. Around 40% of Britons no longer feel at home because of immigration, 47% of French and 44% of Germany feel the same way. I suspect extreme and horrible violence in Europe's future. Integration does not appear to be happening at all. There has been a massive rise of the authoritarian alt-right which I would place 100% on the massive influx of immigrants/refugees. All the hallmarks of genocide are flaring up.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/rise-nationalists-guide-europe-s-far-right-parties

https://www.europenowjournal.org/2018/01/31/the-rise-of-the-european-far-right-in-the-internet-age/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20995...rts-of-uk-as-country-becomes-more-segregated/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4016850/acid-attacks-uk-treatment-victims-burns-sufferers/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43640475

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...untries-italy-france-germany-uk-a7460301.html

London does not have a higher murder rate than NYC.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

This sounds like the conversation between any two people that describe a city. One (likely a visitor) states that it's horrifying, the other (likely a resident) states that they're full of crap. Love it.

Except Detroit, that place is a dumpster fire.

Heh, I can tell you for a fact that when you live in the inner city it's all you know. That's the world. Someone holds up a liquor store? OK? Crap, my car has a flat! Flibbertywhatsut got his throat slashed and his girl raped, beaten and left for dead? Too bad. Hey there's a Taco Bell open!

That's a real-world thing when you live IN it, not watching, even when you live but don't participate because you have alternatives. People in the same city don't live in the same city.

 

[fskimospy]

So wait... You can push your graph and facts but once they don't work you can pull the "social and cultural differences" for an argument... Hahaha I can't wait to use this for a PR 2A argument when facts aren't accept. Oh wait...

That just made my day..

What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you have a strong grasp on the discussion.

 

[Atreus21]

I'm not relying on NYC laws and as I've said before I find most efforts at gun control in the US to be pointless as what we need is a nationwide ban. It's not helpful to control the sale of guns in one place when someone can drive for a few hours and defeat your ban.

All I took issue with was your claim that banning guns did not work in London. By all indications it's worked just fine.

Have a look at something. Wikipedia has a page that collected 2015 data on gun ownership by state vs gun murders per capita in that state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state

The source of their gun ownership data

Throwing this into an excel spreadsheet you get this, with gun ownership in ascending order from right to left:

Alabama, Florida, and Illinois were omitted due to incomplete data. But it's interesting to compare Arkansas with Delaware.

Would you expect to see a correlation here between gun ownership and gun deaths?

EDIT: Changed Murders and Gun Murders per capital to 1,000,000 instead of 100,000 to make the graph more readable.

 

[mdram]

"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
- Churchill

The point is that there are too many foreign variables muddying the data. You know the saying that 'correlation does not imply causation'? That is sorta what we are dealing with here.

lets just exclude any demographic that doesnt support the outcome you want.

 

[mdram]

Have a look at something. Wikipedia has a page that collected 2015 data on gun ownership by state vs gun murders per capita in that state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state

Throwing this into an excel spreadsheet you get this:

Alabama, Florida, and Illinois were omitted due to incomplete data. But it's interesting to compare Arkansas with Delaware.

Would you expect to see a correlation here between gun ownership and gun deaths?

we cant count DC, too many cultural differences

 

[bshole]

London does not have a higher murder rate than NYC.

It never did in the past. It does now.

A surge of stabbings in London was blamed Monday for the city overtaking New York's monthly murder tally for the first time in modern history. Fifteen people were murdered in London during February, compared to 14 in New York, according to police figures.

The British capital also suffered 22 fatal stabbings and shootings in March, higher than the 21 in New York. There have been 10 fatal stabbings in London in the last 19 days, following on from the 80 fatal stabbings recorded in the city last year.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/london...york-city-first-time-surging-knife-gun-crime/

 

[fskimospy]

Back up a bit. You just changed your contention a solid graph shows a decrease in homicides supposedly linked to NYC gun laws then have to admit that NYC has access anyway, then change "from infinity" to any extrapolation at all. Can I say with perfect certainty? No, but it seems you have no valid reason to say it cannot be. Things other than guns are not ruled out but you've apparently staked your claim on it. With the access to weapons being substantially unchanged the graph seems more likely to be linked to the general decline overall.

I never made any such contention. The purpose of that graph was only one thing, to show that London's murder rate is not higher than NYC's. That's it.

You also didn't mention my preferred solution for my daughter. You focused in on guns, completely ignoring that guns weren't even what I was talking about, so you can now provide a means of safety from rape and other violent crime NOT dependent on guns. To recap or clarify- The UK ended guns. People still get raped BTW. So now they take away knives. Rapes will still happen. Going back to the US, NY in particular you mention guns. I mention that in NY virtually ALL means of self defense are banned. Try ordering pepper spray over the internet or go into Dicks. There are two real world weapons allowed, handguns and try to get one in NYC. Only politicians can hand those out to the famous and favored for the majority of cases. But here are knives, you know those things London has banned.

As someone who has been pepper sprayed I think there's a decent chance I'd rather be stabbed. It's a highly effective defensive weapon and it's nonlethal. (yes I know a few people have died after being sprayed but you know what I mean)

If Cuomo were to decide that it would look good for him he'd pull the same thing because that's how he operates. He would have support from people who pull up statistics from overseas, who say that they can kill. The very same mentality about guns.

Now if that happened (and you know it could with Three Men in a Room) and Cuomo's history of acting unilaterally when it gets him applauded. What then? This will be a "model" state where women have no effective legal defense against harm and rape. "Well at least it wasn't a gun" will not be a consolation.

Cuomo is human garbage and I won't defend him. As for what terrible whims he might indulge who knows.

"But we're not talking knives"? Look at the thread title. Guns weren't enough. When that is true here then other objects will be next.

I would say that the gun ban has worked out quite well.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Heh, I can tell you for a fact that when you live in the inner city it's all you know. That's the world. Someone holds up a liquor store? OK? Crap, my car has a flat! Flibbertywhatsut got his throat slashed and his girl raped, beaten and left for dead? Too bad. Hey there's a Taco Bell open!

That's a real-world thing when you live IN it, not watching, even when you live but don't participate because you have alternatives. People in the same city don't live in the same city.

Nah I totally understand, I didn't grow up in the inner city but I've been around plenty that were and they described it pretty much identically. Funny enough most probably don't consider it too bad, whereas random white suburbanites like myself would probably be horrified to drive through the neighborhood.

I've been through a fair amount of shit myself, but there's still plenty of places I've rolled through stopsigns at.

 

[cytg111]

This is total codswallop. You _are_ making most of it up. You aren't a Londoner, that's pretty obvious, just an outsider who visited the place for a bit without knowing anything about it. Maybe you believed the shit some clueless middle-class provincials (briefly here between graduating and going back to the home counties to spawn), or some wanna-be 'gangsta' youth who wanted to sound 'street' told you?

There are dimwit kids, there are stabbings, obviously, like any big city, and there's a tiny element of truth in the 'postcode' thing (but it's still exaggerated, gangs don't exist in the nearly-formal, structured way they have done in some US cities) but, really 'vast areas' 'where the population is almost exclusively black'? 'ghettos'? You give yourself away there. You _have_ got to be some white middle-class provincial or foreigner who sees London as a place fully of scary dark-skinned folk and people with funny accents.

Don't speak as if you are an 'expert' on somewhere you clearly don't know at all.

I once lived in a place(12 years) considered 'ghetto' today and it wasnt until I left the place that I understood what it actually was. Just saying.

 

[bshole]

London does not have a higher murder rate than NYC.

Also rape(20%) and robbery(40%) are skyrocketing. Anti-islamic attacks rose 40% to 1,700 incidents.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...olice-rise-crime-sexual-assault-a8225821.html

 

[fskimospy]

It never did in the past. It does now.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/london...york-city-first-time-surging-knife-gun-crime/

No, it does not. Those are two cherry picked months. If you decided to do that I bet you London has had a higher murder rate than NYC several other times in the past as well. The relevant statistics are yearly murder rates and London doesn't even come close. Additionally, the NYPD went back and revised their statistics and added several murder investigations which once again put NYC above London.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-london-really-deadlier-than-new-york

I would be willing to bet you money that by the end of the year London's murder rate is substantially below NYC's.

 

[cytg111]

lets just exclude any demographic that doesnt support the outcome you want.

I am really not invested either way, I will almost always go where the data takes me.

 

[bshole]

No, it does not. Those are two cherry picked months. If you decided to do that I bet you London has had a higher murder rate than NYC several other times in the past as well. The relevant statistics are yearly murder rates and London doesn't even come close. Additionally, the NYPD went back and revised their statistics and added several murder investigations which once again put NYC above London.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-london-really-deadlier-than-new-york

I would be willing to bet you money that by the end of the year London's murder rate is substantially below NYC's.

Um my link specifically said that it was the FIRST TIME IN MODERN HISTORY that London surpassed NYC for monthly murder rates. If you have an issue with that, take it up with the newspaper that published the report.

I will take your bet. I have seen the trend lines for London and I am confident that they will surpass NYC.

 

[Genx87]

You do seem to like your non-evidence-based definitive statements. How do you know this? Do you have a crystal ball or access to an alternative universe?

Japan has a silly low homicide rate. What makes you believe access to guns will change that?

 

[fskimospy]

Um my link specifically said that it was the FIRST TIME IN MODERN HISTORY that London surpassed NYC for monthly murder rates. If you have an issue with that, take it up with the newspaper that published the report.

If I wanted to take the time to look at the historical data I bet you that's wrong. Regardless it doesn't change the fact that 1) in the end that turned out to be wrong once the NYPD revised its stats and 2) cherry picking a couple of months is silliness. Like I said, want to place any wagers for what city has a higher murder rate by the end of the year?

 

[bshole]

If I wanted to take the time to look at the historical data I bet you that's wrong. Regardless it doesn't change the fact that 1) in the end that turned out to be wrong once the NYPD revised its stats and 2) cherry picking a couple of months is silliness. Like I said, want to place any wagers for what city has a higher murder rate by the end of the year?

You are an extremely intelligent person and must realize that assertions made in the absence of evidence can be dismissed without evidence. My evidence was a newspaper article which referenced actual data. The newspaper COULD be mistaken but I still have some faith that they did the research.

$1,000, how can we set this up?

 

[Kneedragger]

What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you have a strong grasp on the discussion.

...

 

[Kneedragger]

What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you have a strong grasp on the discussion.

My last question to you. That isn't clear?

 

[fskimospy]

$1,000, how can we set this up?

If you really want to do this I will take your money but I'll give you one more warning that this is a foolish bet on your part. For you to be correct you're betting on the fact that London will have an approximately 250% increase in murders year/year or that NYC will have a 60% decline. (or some mixture of the two) No matter what you think the trends are this is highly unlikely.

The terms of the bet would be that for the year 2018 London's number of criminal homicides per 100,000 is lower than that of NYC. We will rely on NYPD and Met Police figures along with official state census population figures to derive this. This bet will be considered void in the event of a mass homicide event, meaning more than 50 homicides in a single event.

I think you're an honorable person and so am I so I'm willing to just rely on your personal honor to ensure the bet is paid but if you'd like to work out some sort of escrow I'm okay with that too. Let me know what you think.

 

[fskimospy]

My last question to you. That isn't clear?

No, it's not clear at all and it seems to have nothing to do with any argument I've made in this thread. This is why I suspect you don't understand the discussion.

 

[pmv]

London has a higher murder rate than NYC. Acid attacks (nonexistent in the past) are now a thing and rising rapidly (500+).

The demographics of England have changed more rapidly in the past 20 years than at any time in its history. Around 40% of Britons no longer feel at home because of immigration, 47% of French and 44% of Germany feel the same way. I suspect extreme and horrible violence in Europe's future. Integration does not appear to be happening at all. There has been a massive rise of the authoritarian alt-right which I would place 100% on the massive influx of immigrants/refugees. All the hallmarks of genocide are flaring up.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/rise-nationalists-guide-europe-s-far-right-parties

https://www.europenowjournal.org/2018/01/31/the-rise-of-the-european-far-right-in-the-internet-age/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20995...rts-of-uk-as-country-becomes-more-segregated/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4016850/acid-attacks-uk-treatment-victims-burns-sufferers/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43640475

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...untries-italy-france-germany-uk-a7460301.html

This is only partially true. Immigration has certainly been high recently (in substantial part thanks to the EU), though the significant feature of it is precisely that it has affected areas outside of London and other major cities. London has always seen immigration, places like Rotherham, not so much. Which is probably why hostile attitudes to immigrants and asylum-seekers, and violent attacks on them (relative to the number available to attack) are far higher in areas that haven't had much immigration than in those that have. And why London (and Liverpool and Manchester) didn't vote Brexit or UKIP.

London also has the balm of money to ease relations between groups. Things seem to be worse in places where there's nothing to do except sit and stew thinking about what 'the other lot' are getting. Personally, after a lifetime in London, it's not that it's 'becoming a ghetto' that bothers me, it's that it's becoming so gentrified and the less well-off are being socially-cleansed, driven out by rising rents and property prices. Housing costs are insane, and councils have been slowly getting rid of their social housing and trying to attract wealthier residents. It's depressing thinking one is becoming part of a privileged out-of-touch overclass merely by virtue of being a Londoner. [Edit, I'm against leaving the EU, but I seriously wonder if I'm entitled to really have an opinion on Brexit, so much of the 'remain' arguments seem to be entirely from a troublingly blinkered perspective of metropolitan types who are doing very well think you]

And the far-right is on the rise across Europe, but immigration is not in any sense the only driving factor - economics (the financial crash, austerity, and the ridiculous mess that is the Euro) and a reaction against the elite-driven EU also play a part. It is a bit like a softer re-run of the 1930s.

As an aside, acid attacks, far from being 'non-existent', were a traditional and common form of assault back in Victorian times, aka 'vitriol throwing' (I first heard of the concept in a Sherlock Holmes story I read as a child). They have started to make a comeback, unfortunately. It might just be an accident, that somone rediscovered them and then all the other little scrotes copied the idea. [hmmm, wonder if the first little toerag got the idea from reading Victorian literature?]

 

[pmv]

"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
- Churchill

The point is that there are too many foreign variables muddying the data. You know the saying that 'correlation does not imply causation'? That is sorta what we are dealing with here.

Bloody foreign variables, comin' over 'ere, confusing our data.

 

[bshole]

If you really want to do this I will take your money but I'll give you one more warning that this is a foolish bet on your part. For you to be correct you're betting on the fact that London will have an approximately 250% increase in murders year/year or that NYC will have a 60% decline. (or some mixture of the two) No matter what you think the trends are this is highly unlikely.

The terms of the bet would be that for the year 2018 London's number of criminal homicides per 100,000 is lower than that of NYC. We will rely on NYPD and Met Police figures along with official state census population figures to derive this. This bet will be considered void in the event of a mass homicide event, meaning more than 50 homicides in a single event.

I think you're an honorable person and so am I so I'm willing to just rely on your personal honor to ensure the bet is paid but if you'd like to work out some sort of escrow I'm okay with that too. Let me know what you think.

Oh shit, did I confuse total murders with murder rates? Damn do I feel stupid..... Yea I am not going to take that bet. I think I pwned myself more than you pwned me though...

 

[pmv]

You live in London I take it?

My entire life, yes. Including time in aforementioned Peckham (which is now gentrifying)