Legacy automakers death watch thread

[ponyo]

It'll likely take couple years for the first one to fail and die but it's inevitable. To kickoff this thread, Daimer cuts its dividend by a third as they report a loss in profit and guide lower sales going forward.

https://www.marketscreener.com/DAIM...hes-It-to-Slash-Dividend-2nd-Update-29980019/

 

[_Rick_]

While selling more cars than ever
My stake in Daimler fell a bit, since I obtained it, but given the general atmosphere inside the company, cutting dividend by only a third isn't too bad at all.
If they hadn't messed up on Diesel (an easy Billion lost there), and the production of one of their major cash cows (hello Tuscaloosa GLEs...), as well as not being able to execute in van - then there'd be nothing to report here, except maybe another record year, after so many record years.

What's more worrying, is that they appear to be cutting on autonomous driving. Given the sunk investment so far, I wonder if now's the time to give up any ground gained, and leave the playing field to the other big players.

 

[Greenman]

My prediction for the next five years is that not a single one will close its doors.

 

[IronWing]

Look, I get the idea that if you own stock you'd be tempted to pump the hell out of it but how many "Telsa will rule the universe" threads do we need?

 

[Kaido]

Look, I get the idea that if you own stock you'd be tempted to pump the heck out of it but how many "Telsa will rule the universe" threads do we need?

I think it's more "big business failing to stay up with current market trends". I'm very interested to see how Ford is going to fare long-term...they were proactive enough to recognize that cars aren't in anymore & quit making them. iirc they're only going to be producing the Mustang coupe & maybe one hatchback kind of thing, maybe. Something like 90% of their business is now SUV's & trucks, so it makes sense to focus on those markets. Electrification is coming, but it won't be sweeping across the country for many years due to the infrastructure requirements & current high costs.

As Americans, we love unlimited everything...with gas, you don't have to think about pricey vehicles or range issues if you don't want to, as a 2-minute fill-up at any gas station gets you back on the road in a jiffy You can buy a really decent brand-new year 2020 car for like $16k these days (ex. Hyundai Accent) with A/C, power windows, Bluetooth, ABS, traction control, nice safety features, etc. Versus a decently-spec'd out new Tesla is really going to run you $40k+ & you have all kinds of special needs like a charging cable at home, range issues on long trips that require longer charging times than just gassing up an ICE car, etc.

On Tesla specifically...if they can really figure out hands-free full self-driving, like legit...I mean, that's going to be a HUGE gamechanger. Why buy a car for daily use that doesn't have that, right? But again...economics, and also actual reality. I think they're years away (if not a decade away, realistically) from level 5-whatever zero-hands-on full-self driving capabilities. And no one else has their level of autopilot capabilities or development on the market right now, so with high costs & slow rollout, I think it will be years before we see any real shakeup in the auto industry, as far as big car companies closing their doors up.

TL;DR: me want cybertruck

 

[Viper GTS]

It's beyond naive to think that Tesla's success means the death of legacy manufacturers. The simple truth is they do some things far better than Tesla does.

The biggest likelihood IMO for those that have at least pretended to ignore the EV revolution (I'm looking at you, Toyota and Subaru) will end up licensing technology from one of the major EV companies. Toyota has already worked with Tesla a bit (granted nearly a decade ago IIRC) and Ford has half a billion into Rivian and at least one project already in the works (Lincoln SUV) based on the platform.

Even if Toyota suddenly pulls their head out of the sand and realizes they have totally missed the EV boat they will still be fine. With sufficient money thrown at the problem someone will sell them skateboards, and then they can sell cars based on those until they have an in-house platform.

In short - Don't hold your breath on legacy deaths. They have ways to fix this.

Viper GTS

 

[ponyo]

Look, I get the idea that if you own stock you'd be tempted to pump the hell out of it but how many "Telsa will rule the universe" threads do we need?

This is not about Tesla pumping. Tesla already won in my mind. This is to talk about legacy automakers as they battle extinction. There's a rumor that Herbert Diess has been pushed out at VW and is being replaced by someone from Porsche.

 

[Kaido]

This is not about Tesla pumping. Tesla already won in my mind. This is to talk about legacy automakers as they battle extinction. There's a rumor that Herbert Diess has been pushed out at VW and is being replaced by someone from Porsche.

tbh if they can figure out a few key technologies (like ultra-fast charging graphene batteries & 500+ mile battery ranges, which the Cybertruck will offer & the Roadster 2.0 is advertised to have), and then build out a really strong fast-charging infrastructure - and combine that all with full-self driving...I think that would help with a lot of barriers.

At that point, it comes down to economy. When I was in college, I could only afford like a $2k car. A hooptie. Cheapest used Leaf I've seen is for $6k & needs a charger, which would have been out of my budget range at the time. So as far as actual implementation & rollout goes, I think it will be awhile until things get affordable enough that the used market starts to trickle down to the lower-income groups, like college students. Speaking of, I wonder how Elio's doing...

 

[Torn Mind]

EVs are homeowner grade vehicles. They get things done for the upper middle class, which is get up, go to work, work 8 hours, travel home and maybe go buy food, send mail, etc while living the bourgeois life their nice big suburbia single home.

Professionals and business people that require travel will do well to stick with gas, which is more resilient to extremes and saves time during refills.

and EVs are a greater fire hazard when sitting still. A defective cell is all that’s needed.

 

[Viper GTS]

EVs are homeowner grade vehicles. They get things done for the upper middle class, which is get up, go to work, work 8 hours, travel home and maybe go buy food, send mail, etc while living the bourgeois life their nice big suburbia single home.

Professionals and business people that require travel will do well to stick with gas, which is more resilient to extremes and saves time during refills.

and EVs are a greater fire hazard when sitting still. A defective cell is all that’s needed.

You are right, of course. It's literally the plan. Those of us with income to buy Teslas today are funding the technology development and scale necessary to push them down market. EVs have been in the getting shit done world for decades (locomotives) so they are certainly not limited to transporting soccer moms in suburbia.

Viper GTS

 

[zinfamous]

This is not about Tesla pumping. Tesla already won in my mind. This is to talk about legacy automakers as they battle extinction. There's a rumor that Herbert Diess has been pushed out at VW and is being replaced by someone from Porsche.

tbf, I don't think anyone reads your posts these days without assuming that some sort of Tesla pumping is going on.

I like your posts, just saying. lol.

 

[NutBucket]

EVs have been in the getting shit done world for decades (locomotives) so they are certainly not limited to transporting soccer moms in suburbia.

Viper GTS

Sure, they work great when there is an unlimited supply of electrons.....just saying.

 

[mrblotto]

Elio Fo Life!


/s

 

[_Rick_]

Sure, they work great when there is an unlimited supply of electrons.....just saying.

In Germany, they started electrifying the Autobahn....

 

[NutBucket]

How does one electrify a roadway? Inductive pickups on the cars? That's really efficient.....

 

[IronWing]

How does one electrify a roadway? Inductive pickups on the cars? That's really efficient.....

Slot cars FTW!

 

[Dranoche]

Some brands might shut down in 5 to 10 years but I would guess that the 15 largest manufacturers at this time are still all here in 15 years. Maybe with a some interesting partnerships, but still all here.

Everyone missed the opportunity to get out in front and be remembered like Tesla, but most are quite conscious of what is happening and have committed to partial or full lineup conversions to hybrids and EV's over the next 5 to 10 years. Any manufacturer on deathwatch in 10 years will probably be there for any assortment of bad business decisions other than failing to develop or license hybrid and EV tech.

 

[_Rick_]

How does one electrify a roadway? Inductive pickups on the cars? That's really efficient.....

Overhead catenaries:

not shopped.

 

[NutBucket]

I can see that working for big rigs but the cost of implementing such systems in flyover states is going to be pretty significant. Not a bad idea though. San Francisco has had city buses like that for decades.

 

[WelshBloke]

Slot cars FTW!

This would be great!

 

[zinfamous]

This would be great!

especially if we get to drive them with those hand-control trigger doohickies, and attempting to drive up an off-ramp would send our cars flying into a spiraling wreck.

 

[skyking]

Have to really keep an eye on the dogs. One time the Rottie licked the track at christmastime, and was not at all pleased.

 

[Torn Mind]

You are right, of course. It's literally the plan. Those of us with income to buy Teslas today are funding the technology development and scale necessary to push them down market. EVs have been in the getting shit done world for decades (locomotives) so they are certainly not limited to transporting soccer moms in suburbia.

Viper GTS

Trains powered by a third rail aren't loaded with a humongous battery pack onboard. Battery pack trains cost the taxpayer more money to operate and are a recent phenomenon. There is also a larger safety risk since the combustible materials are onboard is instead of coming from offsite. The technology, is once again utterly useless outside of densely populated suburbia and cities.

The upper middle class and above often prefer agri-suburbia, meaning developed over freshly cut forest with no or difficult public transportation. Potomac, MD; Olney, MD are two such places. The Ruxton area had its locals vote to refuse buses to come through their area.

 

[manly]

Nobody but a TSLA shill thinks one of the world's large automakers is failing within 3 years. Even a bankruptcy filing isn't quite corporate "death" unless the firm is sold whole-hog to another.

But I'm sure OP can move the goalpost if something happens like Mitsubishi Motors being bought out by a larger firm. This isn't a good example because Mitsubishi is already 1/3 owned by Nissan, but you get the idea.
Or some random central European automaker goes bust, well that's one of the world's dozens of legacy automakers, no?

 

[Greenman]

Some brands might shut down in 5 to 10 years but I would guess that the 15 largest manufacturers at this time are still all here in 15 years. Maybe with a some interesting partnerships, but still all here.

Everyone missed the opportunity to get out in front and be remembered like Tesla, but most are quite conscious of what is happening and have committed to partial or full lineup conversions to hybrids and EV's over the next 5 to 10 years. Any manufacturer on deathwatch in 10 years will probably be there for any assortment of bad business decisions other than failing to develop or license hybrid and EV tech.

It really wasn't an opportunity. The big players need to produce a lot of cars, the electric market simply wasn't there. Tesla started as a boutique manufacturer, and it seems like that was necessary to kick start the market. Now the market appears to be nearing a critical mass, the point at which the big players can dive in and produce in volume.
If Ford manages to make the electric F150 with acceptable range and at a price point that doesn't require selling a kidney to buy, they'll have a smash hit. Though getting enough batteries looks to be a major hurdle.