Legacy automakers death watch thread

[ultimatebob]

My prediction for the next five years is that not a single one will close its doors.

I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or two companies that don't seem to be developing much electric car tech at all (Like Fiat) end up going bankrupt about a decade from now.

Big automakers rarely close completely, though, they just get reorganized into something smaller and more efficient.

Of course, we still have a long way before electric cars become the mainstream choice for most buyers. Don't forget that the average cost of a car sale in growing markets like China is still around $9,000 US, and you simply can't buy a long range electric car yet at that price point.

 

[K1052]

Trains powered by a third rail aren't loaded with a humongous battery pack onboard.

Uh Stadler just sold a bunch of battery Flirts that recharge off overhead wire to the Germans. Due in service 2022.

 

[Torn Mind]

Uh Stadler just sold a bunch of battery Flirts that recharge off overhead wire to the Germans. Due in service 2022.

He said “for years”. Battery pack trains weren’t around in the 1970s. Your example are refer to the future tense. Also, that is a conversion from diesel to battery. The U.S equivalent would be Amtrak’s non-Northeastern U.S fleet of passenger diesel , not local train systems like DC Metro or New York’s subway. Amtrak is a garbage state-owned company that needs to deal with frigging safety before installing long ass lines of wire for a huge country with 50 little countries inside of it. It was born because passenger rail couldn’t be profitable for private companies by 1970. It owns its trains but not the tracks. Private rail companies own the tracks and freight transport is preferred because it makes profit for the companies. For freight, there is absolutely no way a measly battery pack train is carrying that load.

Germany is smaller than Texas. We got Texas and 47 others in the contiguous U.S. Euros also had a bizarre love affair with diesel in vehicles while looking down at gas. How’s those decades of crappy air quality doing for them now?

The matters of lacking population density(overhead maps showing trees and farms), cost of adding infrastructure, reliability, and safety.
Perhaps Germany has their crap together regarding managing rail systems, but I here in the U.S, I have my doubts. Maintenance left undone, money wasted, etc.

The fact a train system exists means the local ecosystem has been plowed over more than a few times over the centuries and that there is much human habitation in the surrounding areas, something not measured in emissions or only indirectly so.

 

[NutBucket]

Oh, and the latest supply issues for battery manufacturers? Sure, you can build more plants but how fast can you strip mine for raw materials? I think that's actually the biggest problem.

Basically demand could quadruple overnight and there's no way to deliver those vehicles. In the first half of 2019 there were about 1.1 million EVs sold globally. Supposedly global vehicle sales for 2019 were about 77 million. Where the heck are the materials to build 35x the amount of batteries currently being produced? That's not just right-wing agenda, that's a real problem!

 

[ponyo]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...lf-year-low-after-earnings-rout-idUSKBN2080M8

Shares of Nissan Motor Co fell to their lowest in 10-1/2 years on Friday, tumbling nearly 10% after the struggling Japanese automaker cut its annual profit forecast and said it would not pay a dividend in the second half.

Former Nissan CEO, Carlos Ghosn, predicts Nissan will go bankrupt in 2-3 years.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...osn-predicted-nissan-bankruptcy/#.Xkakci2ZPjA

 

[ponyo]

Oh, and the latest supply issues for battery manufacturers? Sure, you can build more plants but how fast can you strip mine for raw materials? I think that's actually the biggest problem.

Basically demand could quadruple overnight and there's no way to deliver those vehicles. In the first half of 2019 there were about 1.1 million EVs sold globally. Supposedly global vehicle sales for 2019 were about 77 million. Where the heck are the materials to build 35x the amount of batteries currently being produced? That's not just right-wing agenda, that's a real problem!

Tesla has a plan. We'll hear more about it at their Battery Investor Day that's coming up in April. As for the rest of the automakers, they're pretty much relying on LG Chem, SK Innovations, CATL, BYD, Panasonic, etc for their batteries. So they're at the mercy of both the mining and battery companies.

 

[Greenman]

That has a lot more to do with criminal activity than a changing market, but I'll go ahead and admit I was wrong if they fold up in less than 5 years.
The CEO's prediction of the company failing just before jumping bail and fleeing the country is fairly humorous.

 

[Greenman]

Tesla has a plan. We'll hear more about it at their Battery Investor Day that's coming up in April. As for the rest of the automakers, they're pretty much relying on LG Chem, SK Innovations, CATL, BYD, Panasonic, etc for their batteries. So they're at the mercy of both the mining and battery companies.

I'm curious to see the plan. Perhaps Tesla is going to start a mining division? Or perhaps develop a new type of battery?

 

[ultimatebob]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...lf-year-low-after-earnings-rout-idUSKBN2080M8

Former Nissan CEO, Carlos Ghosn, predicts Nissan will go bankrupt in 2-3 years.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...osn-predicted-nissan-bankruptcy/#.Xkakci2ZPjA

Nissan has been one of the bigger investors in electric car tech, though. They probably sold more Nissan Leaf electric cars than most auto manufactures have sold in their entire EV product lines.

It also wouldn't hurt for some of the Tesla fanboys around here to take their eyes away from their TSLA stock charts and take a walk outside and look at the cars driving around downtown. If your town looks anything like mine, about 98% of the cars you see will still have internal combustion engines. Calling for the "death" of the legacy auto makers now is highly premature.

 

[ponyo]

Nissan has been one of the bigger investors in electric car tech, though. They probably sold more Nissan Leaf electric cars than most auto manufactures have sold in their entire EV product lines.

It also wouldn't hurt for some of the Tesla fanboys around here to take their eyes away from their TSLA stock charts and take a walk outside and look at the cars driving around downtown. If your town looks anything like mine, about 98% of the cars you see will still have internal combustion engines. Calling for the "death" of the legacy auto makers now is highly premature.

Legacy automakers don't have the time you think they have.

 

[NutBucket]

But here's the problem. Clearly the car is far superior to the horse. But is an EV far superior to an IC car you already have?

That, and you can't force people to spend $30k on new cars. People bought Model Ts by choice.

 

[manly]

That has a lot more to do with criminal activity than a changing market, but I'll go ahead and admit I was wrong if they fold up in less than 5 years.
The CEO's prediction of the company failing just before jumping bail and fleeing the country is fairly humorous.

Not so much about criminal activity, but he had cost cut Nissan into irrelevance. Besides his financial shens, talk about hubris to declare the company will eventually file for bankruptcy (which as I asserted earlier, still is not death).

Nissan has been one of the bigger investors in electric car tech, though. They probably sold more Nissan Leaf electric cars than most auto manufactures have sold in their entire EV product lines.

Ehh, being at the forefront is somewhat overrated. Where are Palm, BlackBerry or Windows Phone handsets now? Whatever happened to Yahoo! or the dozens of portals and search engines before them? Nissan is #2 all time in BEV sales, but that number is very small compared to the auto market.

But here's the problem. Clearly the car is far superior to the horse. But is an EV far superior to an IC car you already have?

That, and you can't force people to spend $30k on new cars. People bought Model Ts by choice.

I don't have the inflation-adjusted number in front of me, but the Model T was quite affordable (I believe under $10k in today's currency). Although new automobiles are fairly expensive (driven by light trucks category), I've always said there is a somewhat limited market for $50k sedans with average build quality inside and out.

Obviously OP thinks TSLA is AAPL circa 2008 and is willing to ride them to the moon.

 

[kt]

How does one electrify a roadway? Inductive pickups on the cars? That's really efficient.....

I read some where that they are coming up with a way to harvest energy from asphalt roadway using piezoelectric materials. If it's true, electric cars may be powered by the very road we drive on.

 

[WelshBloke]

But here's the problem. Clearly the car is far superior to the horse. But is an EV far superior to an IC car you already have?

That’s the meaty issue isn’t it?


I want to replace one of my cars and I want it to be similar but better than the one I'm replacing.
I've got a Mini cooper convertible. It’s a great second car, its fun to drive, it’s pretty economical, its great in the city and its great throwing it around the lanes in the countryside. I can also use it at a push to do long distance drives across the country if there’s only one other passenger.

So what’s the option for a small EV that’s a convertible, has roughly a 300 mile range, is fun to drive, looks ok and costs about £25k?

People swapped from the horse to the car for obvious reasons. Keeping a horse is a lot more complicated than just parking your car in the garage if you live in the city! Switching from an ICE car to an EV is a completely different thing. There aren’t a lot of obvious advantages. Yes you are emitting less pollutants but your driving experience is going to be a bit more inconvenient. The in your face difference could be positive or negative depending on your location and driving needs. Every time I look at the issue as dispassionately as I can I just can’t justify switching to an EV and I'd really like to.

 

[ultimatebob]

Not so much about criminal activity, but he had cost cut Nissan into irrelevance. Besides his financial shens, talk about hubris to declare the company will eventually file for bankruptcy (which as I asserted earlier, still is not death).

Ehh, being at the forefront is somewhat overrated. Where are Palm, BlackBerry or Windows Phone handsets now? Whatever happened to Yahoo! or the dozens of portals and search engines before them? Nissan is #2 all time in BEV sales, but that number is very small compared to the auto market.

I don't have the inflation-adjusted number in front of me, but the Model T was quite affordable (I believe under $10k in today's currency). Although new automobiles are fairly expensive (driven by light trucks category), I've always said there is a somewhat limited market for $50k sedans with average build quality inside and out.

Obviously OP thinks TSLA is AAPL circa 2008 and is willing to ride them to the moon.

I'd argue that TSLA stock is more currently like APPL stock circa late 2018... overvalued and due for a correction before it goes higher.

That said, we really do need a "Model T" like EV before we get mass market acceptance. The price needs to low enough to be cost comparable to a gas powered car while still having a range that's comparable to a gas powered car as well.

Sorry, but a $50,000 "$35,000" electric car like the Model 3 isn't going to cut it for most people.

 

[ponyo]

Porsche Taycan exploded in Florida garage. If this was Tesla car, it would be front page news on every news site right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1229431020547493888

 

[NutBucket]

I could drive a first gen Leaf and it would meet most of my daily needs while being dirt cheap. But then I'd be driving a boring car!

 

[Viper GTS]

That’s the meaty issue isn’t it?


I want to replace one of my cars and I want it to be similar but better than the one I'm replacing.
I've got a Mini cooper convertible. It’s a great second car, its fun to drive, it’s pretty economical, its great in the city and its great throwing it around the lanes in the countryside. I can also use it at a push to do long distance drives across the country if there’s only one other passenger.

So what’s the option for a small EV that’s a convertible, has roughly a 300 mile range, is fun to drive, looks ok and costs about £25k?

People swapped from the horse to the car for obvious reasons. Keeping a horse is a lot more complicated than just parking your car in the garage if you live in the city! Switching from an ICE car to an EV is a completely different thing. There aren’t a lot of obvious advantages. Yes you are emitting less pollutants but your driving experience is going to be a bit more inconvenient. The in your face difference could be positive or negative depending on your location and driving needs. Every time I look at the issue as dispassionately as I can I just can’t justify switching to an EV and I'd really like to.

Have you actually driven one? The driving experience is vastly superior to ICE, in every way but two. I occasionally miss the drama and noise, and there are times in the deepest part of winter where the 30 percent efficiency of gasoline is nice. Other than that, EV wins in every way. Wildly superior power delivery, next generation traction/stability control, luxury car NVH levels, and in the case of Model 3 depreciation that makes buying used pointless. And that's before we even get to operating cost and maintenance.

If you haven't yet driven one you really need to - All it took was one drive in a Bolt to completely destroy everything I thought I knew. My Model 3 Performance pulls harder than my Viper did yet costs about two cents a mile to operate. I will never even consider going back for daily driver use.

For some people they won't work, but if you can charge at home and don't often need to drive hundreds of miles in a single day they absolutely redefine what you expect from a car.

Viper GTS

 

[Greenman]

Have you actually driven one? The driving experience is vastly superior to ICE, in every way but two. I occasionally miss the drama and noise, and there are times in the deepest part of winter where the 30 percent efficiency of gasoline is nice. Other than that, EV wins in every way. Wildly superior power delivery, next generation traction/stability control, luxury car NVH levels, and in the case of Model 3 depreciation that makes buying used pointless. And that's before we even get to operating cost and maintenance.

If you haven't yet driven one you really need to - All it took was one drive in a Bolt to completely destroy everything I thought I knew. My Model 3 Performance pulls harder than my Viper did yet costs about two cents a mile to operate. I will never even consider going back for daily driver use.

For some people they won't work, but if you can charge at home and don't often need to drive hundreds of miles in a single day they absolutely redefine what you expect from a car.

Viper GTS

Now if they would just make an actual pickup and not some bone head contraption modeled on a door stop I could be driving one.

 

[heymrdj]

Have you actually driven one? The driving experience is vastly superior to ICE, in every way but two. I occasionally miss the drama and noise, and there are times in the deepest part of winter where the 30 percent efficiency of gasoline is nice. Other than that, EV wins in every way. Wildly superior power delivery, next generation traction/stability control, luxury car NVH levels, and in the case of Model 3 depreciation that makes buying used pointless. And that's before we even get to operating cost and maintenance.

If you haven't yet driven one you really need to - All it took was one drive in a Bolt to completely destroy everything I thought I knew. My Model 3 Performance pulls harder than my Viper did yet costs about two cents a mile to operate. I will never even consider going back for daily driver use.

For some people they won't work, but if you can charge at home and don't often need to drive hundreds of miles in a single day they absolutely redefine what you expect from a car.

Viper GTS

I don’t know about all that. It really depends on what you expect for the experience. There’s more to it than power. I drove my brother’s model 3. The performance was crazy. The fit an finish was great. But for the price tag I would expect still more features. That much money is firmly in massaging multi way seats territory, profiles that set the car settings as you approach it (without interacting with the screen), no heated steering wheel (wtf?!?), no HUD. The list goes on for fit and finish features. For that money and the sacrifice of range, I would expect it to easily compare to any features available on a Ford or Dodge product of that cost, let alone a Porsche, Lincoln, Audi, or Mercedes.

For me, since I can’t charge at home mire than 110V, it’s still in the no category for me. If I could charge at home, it probably wouldn’t be a 3 because first and foremost I expect luxury features. There’s some other Tesla models that could be nice in that regard, but again, for the price tag, I could have even more fun with a Cayman GTS.

Different strokes for different folks. Not sure why people get so frothy about what’s the best, when there is currently no beat anything on the market. Just a series of compromises.

 

[ultimatebob]

For me, since I can’t charge at home mire than 110V, it’s still in the no category for me. If I could charge at home, it probably wouldn’t be a 3 because first and foremost I expect luxury features. There’s some other Tesla models that could be nice in that regard, but again, for the price tag, I could have even more fun with a Cayman GTS.

I'm about to get the outdated electrical updated in my house, and I plan on having a 240V outlet run to my garage so I can charge an electric car there... someday. Even if Tesla can't get me a real $35,000 long range electric car yet, I'd imagine that some other automaker will in the next decade. Getting that same range in a $25,000 car is going to require a breakthrough in battery tech, though.

 

[WelshBloke]

Have you actually driven one? The driving experience is vastly superior to ICE, in every way but two. I occasionally miss the drama and noise, and there are times in the deepest part of winter where the 30 percent efficiency of gasoline is nice. Other than that, EV wins in every way. Wildly superior power delivery, next generation traction/stability control, luxury car NVH levels, and in the case of Model 3 depreciation that makes buying used pointless. And that's before we even get to operating cost and maintenance.

If you haven't yet driven one you really need to - All it took was one drive in a Bolt to completely destroy everything I thought I knew. My Model 3 Performance pulls harder than my Viper did yet costs about two cents a mile to operate. I will never even consider going back for daily driver use.

For some people they won't work, but if you can charge at home and don't often need to drive hundreds of miles in a single day they absolutely redefine what you expect from a car.

Viper GTS

A model 3 is way too big and heavy for my second car. Also it's not a soft top.

 

[manly]

I'm about to get the outdated electrical updated in my house, and I plan on having a 240V outlet run to my garage so I can charge an electric car there... someday. Even if Tesla can't get me a real $35,000 long range electric car yet, I'd imagine that some other automaker will in the next decade. Getting that same range in a $25,000 car is going to require a breakthrough in battery tech, though.

Isn't the cost curve for battery cells bending down pretty quickly/steadily? I'm not sure if it'll require a breakthrough, or just another 5 years? Of course if BEV adoption skyrockets, that will lead to a supply shortage of batteries?

Hey lookie here, according to another thread, Holden auto brand is dead. Guess the OP can now tell us his prognostication was correct and he'll go out and load up on another 100 shares of TSLA!

 

[Muadib]

Now if they would just make an actual pickup and not some bone head contraption modeled on a door stop I could be driving one.

There are options other than Tesla...

Rivian - Electric Adventure Vehicles

Whether it’s taking families on new adventures or helping fleets electrify at scale, our vehicles all share a common goal — preserving the natural world for generations to come.

rivian.com

 

[ponyo]

Isn't the cost curve for battery cells bending down pretty quickly/steadily? I'm not sure if it'll require a breakthrough, or just another 5 years? Of course if BEV adoption skyrockets, that will lead to a supply shortage of batteries?

Hey lookie here, according to another thread, Holden auto brand is dead. Guess the OP can now tell us his prognostication was correct and he'll go out and load up on another 100 shares of TSLA!

No need to be salty because you missed the move on TSLA. You were steering people not to buy TSLA shares when it was in the $200 range last year. I hope no one listened to you and missed out on massive gains.

Holden was already dead. It's why I didn't post their demise. But you can bet I will post GM demise when they go under in this or next decade. GM is toast and nothing you or I say will save them. Ford is going to suffer the same fate.