Legacy automakers death watch thread

[Greenman]

There are options other than Tesla...

Rivian - Electric Adventure Vehicles

Whether it’s taking families on new adventures or helping fleets electrify at scale, our vehicles all share a common goal — preserving the natural world for generations to come.

rivian.com

Looked at it, not a real pickup. I need a pickup truck, that means an 8' bed, the ability to mount racks on it, an 8k towing capacity, rubber floors and vinyl seats. It doesn't have to be self driving, as I generally know where I'm going. It doesn't need power seats, a heated steering wheel or bluetooth anything. If there is an app for it, I don't want it.

 

[manly]

No need to be salty because you missed the move on TSLA. You were steering people not to buy TSLA shares when it was in the $200 range last year. I hope no one listened to you and missed out on massive gains.

Holden was already dead. It's why I didn't post their demise. But you can bet I will post GM demise when they go under in this or next decade. GM is toast and nothing you or I say will save them. Ford is going to suffer the same fate.

BS, I never dispensed any investment advice in the few Tesla threads. I think the company is actually doing reasonably well in recent quarters and seems to be well positioned for the next few years. I'm less pessimistic about Tesla's prospects now than I was a year ago. Whether that justifies a $150B or ultimately a $1T market cap is highly debatable, but that's not what this thread is about.

Nice of you to adjust your previous stance. Before it was an unnamed legacy automaker would die within a few years. Now your favorite at-risk automakers GM and Ford will die before 2040. Way to go out on a limb.

 

[Greenman]

No need to be salty because you missed the move on TSLA. You were steering people not to buy TSLA shares when it was in the $200 range last year. I hope no one listened to you and missed out on massive gains.

Holden was already dead. It's why I didn't post their demise. But you can bet I will post GM demise when they go under in this or next decade. GM is toast and nothing you or I say will save them. Ford is going to suffer the same fate.

You've rolled through fanboy and are approaching cult member thinking. Tesla is well positioned, and definitely blazing trail, but all the others have vast capacity, and buckets of capital. Any of the major manufacturers could swallow Tesla whole and not even burp. The future of Tesla is by no means written in stone.

 

[ultimatebob]

You've rolled through fanboy and are approaching cult member thinking. Tesla is well positioned, and definitely blazing trail, but all the others have vast capacity, and buckets of capital. Any of the major manufacturers could swallow Tesla whole and not even burp. The future of Tesla is by no means written in stone.

Well... the other automakers Could buy Tesla if it had sane a valuation based on current sales, but right now it's massively overpriced. It's trading at a huge multiple right now because people consider it to be the future of transportation. Because of that, Tesla has a GM sized market cap without the revenue to back it up.

I think that the bubble will pop at some point, but I've been wrong before.

 

[Greenman]

Well... the other automakers Could buy Tesla if it had sane a valuation based on current sales, but right now it's massively overpriced. It's trading at a huge multiple right now because people consider it to be the future of transportation. Because of that, Tesla has a GM sized market cap without the revenue to back it up.

I think that the bubble will pop at some point, but I've been wrong before.

It's a reasonably safe bet that Tesla will do well, but the belief that every other car manufacturer will go under is insane. Tesla's success at this point seems to be as much about hero worship as anything else.

 

[Wreckem]

There are options other than Tesla...

Rivian - Electric Adventure Vehicles

Whether it’s taking families on new adventures or helping fleets electrify at scale, our vehicles all share a common goal — preserving the natural world for generations to come.

rivian.com

Not to mention the Electric F150 that should make its offical debut in 2021.

 

[Wreckem]

Looked at it, not a real pickup. I need a pickup truck, that means an 8' bed, the ability to mount racks on it, an 8k towing capacity, rubber floors and vinyl seats. It doesn't have to be self driving, as I generally know where I'm going. It doesn't need power seats, a heated steering wheel or bluetooth anything. If there is an app for it, I don't want it.

It’s doubtful even the electric F150 will come with a long bed option. That said most electric trucks will have the ability to have long items such as lumber pass through the length of the truck.

As for towing. Unfortunately towing will always be an issue with evs because the laws of physics. It’s anywhere from 35-50% reduction in mileage with towing.

 

[Wreckem]

It's a reasonably safe bet that Tesla will do well, but the belief that every other car manufacturer will go under is insane. Tesla's success at this point seems to be as much about hero worship as anything else.

Stocks are based on long term. In the long term Tesla has the rest of the auto companies by the balls with ev tech because of the patent they own, their superior technology, and well their gigafactories.

They won’t be putting anyone out of business but they will be making profit off of almost everyone eventually...

 

[Zorba]

Porsche Taycan exploded in Florida garage. If this was Tesla car, it would be front page news on every news site right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1229431020547493888

Such victimhood, the sign of every cult.

 

[Greenman]

It’s doubtful even the electric F150 will come with a long bed option. That said most electric trucks will have the ability to have long items such as lumber pass through the length of the truck.

As for towing. Unfortunately towing will always be an issue with evs because the laws of physics. It’s anywhere from 35-50% reduction in mileage with towing.

A short bed 4 door pickup is actually an SUV. They have mushey suspension, bells and whistles galore, and car tires on them for a nice ride. They're about as useless as tits on a boar hog.

The problem is that work trucks are such a tiny segment of the market that they just don't build them. The SUV variations sell like hot cakes, useulay loaded with every conceivable option and a price tag that's just as fat.
I hate that soccer moms and overweight accounts have ruined trucks.

 

[teejee]

Stocks are based on long term. In the long term Tesla has the rest of the auto companies by the balls with ev tech because of the patent they own, their superior technology, and well their gigafactories.

About their patents:

Tesla's free-to-use patents are all about sustainability - and strength

Tesla CEO Elon Musk's reminder that the EV maker's patents are free to use is all about leading the way to a sustainable future.

thedriven.io

They are free for anyone to use

 

[Arkaign]

.

It seems to me we're one economic emergency away from some of these things outright tanking. And I'm seeing the crows circling up ahead, something isn't right, and it may already be too late to do anything about it beyond watching it all burn to the ground.

 

[drnickriviera]

It seems to me we're one economic emergency away from some of these things outright tanking. And I'm seeing the crows circling up ahead, something isn't right, and it may already be too late to do anything about it beyond watching it all burn to the ground.

Pricing does seem to be getting out of hand, but i think that vid was using MSRP pricing or some high interest rates. My brother just picked up a 2020 Bolt for 24.5k, no haggle price. So 60 months at 3.9% would come out at $400/mo

 

[Greenman]

Buying cars with $20k worth of options seems to be the norm.

 

[Pantoot]

Pricing does seem to be getting out of hand, but i think that vid was using MSRP pricing or some high interest rates. My brother just picked up a 2020 Bolt for 24.5k, no haggle price. So 60 months at 3.9% would come out at $400/mo

Yeah, you could see on the dealers screen that he was using 7.99%, but I think that is about what you would get if you have someone who makes $19/hr trying to buy a $40k car. As far as other options that would have worked (beside the pink rollerskate) its almost like they were trying to fit a narrative...

 

[Torn Mind]

.

It seems to me we're one economic emergency away from some of these things outright tanking. And I'm seeing the crows circling up ahead, something isn't right, and it may already be too late to do anything about it beyond watching it all burn to the ground.

Buy used within three years old and under 60,000 miles is the way to save money. Dodge, Ford, and Chevy sedans tended to suck compared to the Japanese and it seems that those voluntary export restraints of the 80s sure only delayed the inevitable by 30 years, and that bailout another 10 years.


Goes to show how lobbying powers politics and causes government intervention. Given the prestige of the auto, it’s importance to Michigan and elsewhere, and that hanging out a powerful union out to dry is not going to go well, no surprise they got bailed out.

If oil ever rises up again before GM and Ford can establish compelling EVs, chances are they are dead in the water.

 

[Torn Mind]

Yeah, you could see on the dealers screen that he was using 7.99%, but I think that is about what you would get if you have someone who makes $19/hr trying to buy a $40k car. As far as other options that would have worked (besides a pink rollerskate) its almost like they were trying to fit a narrative...

Yeah, more government intervention for a domestic industry that has received federal government intervention twice in order to save their financial bacon and strongly under the sway of a powerful union. Can’t have it all. Low prices, well-paid employees, and satisfying the bottom line. One of them has to be sacrificed.

 

[NutBucket]

I've been in late model Malibus and Cruzes. I even considered buying a Focus back in 2010. I thought they were all quite nice and the main reason I didn't buy one is the driving experience just was a bit too bland. The current Fusion is quite nice too.

 

[Torn Mind]

I've been in late model Malibus and Cruzes. I even considered buying a Focus back in 2010. I thought they were all quite nice and the main reason I didn't buy one is the driving experience just was a bit too bland. The current Fusion is quite nice too.

Door hinge metal cracking in the video. More anecdotes in the comments, like a tranny dying at 45,000k.
The metals in a Toyota are better and trannys don’t die that early even with abuse. I mean, Toyotas are perfect vehicles, but even when compromised, the drivetrain doesn’t crap out on you.
The buying collective has spoken out for decades by flocking to imports even when the imports have major, sometimes deadly, hiccups.

Cars are the one rare thing in which made in USA is not a badge of honor unless it’s a Mustang or the like.

 

[Greenman]

Door hinge metal cracking in the video. More anecdotes in the comments, like a tranny dying at 45,000k.
The metals in a Toyota are better and trannys don’t die that early even with abuse. I mean, Toyotas are perfect vehicles, but even when compromised, the drivetrain doesn’t crap out on you.
The buying collective has spoken out for decades by flocking to imports even when the imports have major, sometimes deadly, hiccups.

Cars are the one rare thing in which made in USA is not a badge of honor unless it’s a Mustang or the like.

It all depends on what you go looking for. Most brands have had some sort of problem over the years. I've driven Fords my whole life because they've always worked. I get 12 to 15 years and at least a quarter million miles out of them. My wifes Escape is 18 years old, still looks great and runs fine. I expect it to easily last another five years.
Toyota's reputation for reliability has never been proven to me. The folks I know that own them appear to have as many repairs as any other brand.

 

[Arkaign]

It all depends on what you go looking for. Most brands have had some sort of problem over the years. I've driven Fords my whole life because they've always worked. I get 12 to 15 years and at least a quarter million miles out of them. My wifes Escape is 18 years old, still looks great and runs fine. I expect it to easily last another five years.
Toyota's reputation for reliability has never been proven to me. The folks I know that own them appear to have as many repairs as any other brand.

It's truly important to examine things model by model, and sometimes you just get plain unlucky.

With Ford, the Focus 2012+ got a new DCT, which has been absolutely plagued by issues and failures. The manual transmission units on the other hand are quite good overall. This resulted in massive financial impact against Ford in a segment not all that profitable to begin with, and it seems they took the wrong lessons from that by choosing to abadon the car segment entirely in lieu of more profitable heavier and more expensive/less efficient trucks and SUVs.

That kind of thinking I think makes them unbelievably vulnerable to any significant market corrections that will inevitably occur at some point down the line. Indeed this very year might see a market implosion of sorts. It's a bad situation even when you're prepared, but if customers are suddenly running away from guzzlers and $40-$80k Trucks and SUVs, your company is going to look pretty damn idiotic in that scenario, without even a fallback revenue maker. Adding to that a sort of mini-subprime time bomb to go with it by being so closely tied to the finance side of it. Yes, in good times you can fatten those CEO zeros, but the flip side is that if a large enough percentage of those people you've sold 5, 6, and even 8 year notes on overpriced guzzlers to can't or won't pay the notes, then you're holding a triple whammy :

No new vehicles that appeal to budget minded consumers

Huge, expensive inventory of unwanted vehicles

Torrent of failing auto loans

A 2008-style market correction would have a high chance of ending Ford in today's market. They were the lucky one last time, having both appealing budget vehicles as well as just having gotten solid financials done before the catastrophe.

But yes, any maker can have some terrible models or even selections within a single model. I had a 2012 Scion TC 6MT. The second gen TC, based on the international Toyota Avensis. The 2.4l i4 was fine and no significant issues. Unfortunately for me, the 6MT units, about 10% of the TC2s sold, had a ridiculously stupid thin plastic throwout bearing, and a defective design on the input shaft bearing, which caused most of the manual shift models to fail between 40-60k miles. If you didn't disassemble the transmission before the input shaft bearing failed, it would destroy the transmission gearing. On mine, as I drive very easy on manual cars in my old age, achieved 160k miles on it before it failed. There was a TSB acknowledging the failure between Toyota service personnel, but they didn't put out a recall because it was too rare of a model to get the necessary attention. So I had a friend's auto shop help me put in a used transmission, which unfortunately for me still had the OEM input shaft bearing inside it, which failed again less than 5k miles later.

For someone who bought the car to use as a long term daily to combine with the highest maintenance standards, this was obviously quite disappointing. I would have been better off with the automatic variant, just as Focus 2012+ owners are better off with the manual variants. Impossible to know these things with the latest models that haven't seen the exact drivetrains put through widespread public use in longer term observation.

I hope we see more sensible i4, 5/6MT and non-CVT/DCT basic autos designed and released which target 35-50mpg, and don't fall prey to overcomplication and overpricing. The best car I've owned this century has been a 2008 Focus S 2.0 i4 5MT Coupe. Incredibly reliable 42-45mpg on highway, 35+mpg mixed, and all it ever needed in 200k+ miles was gas, oil, tires, and brakes. Car was about 10k new and didn't screw around with extraneous nonsense. Not for everyone, but that kind of option should not be skipped entirely by makers.

 

[Torn Mind]

It all depends on what you go looking for. Most brands have had some sort of problem over the years. I've driven Fords my whole life because they've always worked. I get 12 to 15 years and at least a quarter million miles out of them. My wifes Escape is 18 years old, still looks great and runs fine. I expect it to easily last another five years.
Toyota's reputation for reliability has never been proven to me. The folks I know that own them appear to have as many repairs as any other brand.

Ford can be very flaky in what they make. The Ranger’s steering column not being machined, leading to shifter issue. Designing holes that cannot retain spark plugs.
Hell, Ford also was subject to unintended acceleration lawsuits, which is the blackest mark on Toyota’s record.

My mom’s had its issues, but they were mostly on wear items and the battery cables. The engine did suffer from minor unintended acceleration but was not covered under the recall. The dealer must have buried the problem by reprogramming the computer. The rear left door gasket failed rather early. So not perfect, and I hate the seats.
Everything was at least reasonably accessible and not buried in an engineer’s maze.
It is 13 years old and about to hit 180k. Doesn’t feel like the engine or tranny is going to die before the odometer hits its max of 299,999(cunning way of Toyota to obsolete a vehicle). The brake rotors have stayed true, nothing wrong with the calipers. And the metals are not showing a rust horror like Mazda would.

 

[manly]

Door hinge metal cracking in the video. More anecdotes in the comments, like a tranny dying at 45,000k.
The metals in a Toyota are better and trannys don’t die that early even with abuse. I mean, Toyotas are perfect vehicles, but even when compromised, the drivetrain doesn’t crap out on you.
The buying collective has spoken out for decades by flocking to imports even when the imports have major, sometimes deadly, hiccups.

Cars are the one rare thing in which made in USA is not a badge of honor unless it’s a Mustang or the like.

LOL, are you really comparing an econobox to the gold standard of reliability (Toyota)? At any rate, I'm pretty sure Camrys are made in Kentucky (and Honda Accords have been made in Marysville, OH for decades). Most cars sold in the U.S. are made by American workers, but some foreign makes are indeed imported.

The problem for Detroit is they never figured out how to profitably make a small car. The big 3 came a long way in the past 15 years, esp. since The Great Recession allowed them to shed a lot of legacy debt. Their passenger cars are probably better than ever, but so is the competition! But if they can't make any money selling a Cruze, obviously they'll have to cut some corners making it. Ultimately, Detroit is abandoning passenger cars completely, which is lame, but purely a business decision.

 

[ondma]

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It seems to me we're one economic emergency away from some of these things outright tanking. And I'm seeing the crows circling up ahead, something isn't right, and it may already be too late to do anything about it beyond watching it all burn to the ground.

There are lots of other options than what are presented in that video. There are plenty of sedans and compact crossovers in the mid 20 to 30k range. Still a lot of money, but better than the loaded behemoths in the video. Auto makers *have* pushed up the market with SUVs and crossovers instead of wagons and hatchbacks though. The one thing that could really crash the auto market is a major spike in fuel prices, especially for makers like Ford that will no longer be selling sedans in the US.

If one shops carefully, new cars can actually offer a lot of features for the price, and cars last a lot longer than they used to.There is always the 1-3 year old used/lease return market.

 

[K1052]

There are lots of other options than what are presented in that video. There are plenty of sedans and compact crossovers in the mid 20 to 30k range. Still a lot of money, but better than the loaded behemoths in the video. Auto makers *have* pushed up the market with SUVs and crossovers instead of wagons and hatchbacks though. The one thing that could really crash the auto market is a major spike in fuel prices, especially for makers like Ford that will no longer be selling sedans in the US.

If one shops carefully, new cars can actually offer a lot of features for the price, and cars last a lot longer than they used to.There is always the 1-3 year old used/lease return market.

The way things are going I'd expect that the auto industry will simply exhaust the borrowing capacity of consumers before oil prices hit their increasingly War Rig like product lines. Especially if there is any sort of general economic downturn.

Amen on the off lease vehicle market. Paid 30% of new sticker price for a 3 year old vehicle with under 20k miles loaded with every option they offered.