Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE

 

[maddie]

There are other factors in play. But. Politics aside, removing Japan's photoresist supply would shut down most of the PRC's fabs. It's not a material that can be stockpiled.

And all the non chinese companies that also rely on their production. The dreams of sanctions not having significant blowback in the presently structured world economy is delusional.

I think the ones advocating for these actions grew up in a different era and are stuck in a dated mindset. The last 2 decades have transformed the world trading/production reality.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I think the ones advocating for these actions grew up in a different era and are stuck in a dated mindset.

Maybe, but the circumstances appear to be a bit more complicated than just "<insertcountryhere> bad, we need sanctions". For example, some public officials in <insertcountryhere> may have publicly threatened the Japanese PM with beheading. That does raise tensions a bit.

 

[Doug S]

Maybe, but the circumstances appear to be a bit more complicated than just "<insertcountryhere> bad, we need sanctions". For example, some public officials in <insertcountryhere> may have publicly threatened the Japanese PM with beheading. That does raise tensions a bit.

China/Japan are sparring over semiconductors because they've been waging a war of (mostly) words over China's territorial claims in the waters between the two countries (you know, that artificial island stuff etc.)

It was inevitable it would spill over from foreign policy into trade. Since neither side is going to back down the tensions are only likely to rise.

 

[LightningZ71]

The enmity between China and Japan dates back farther than those claims. Japan's closeness with the US isn't helping things there either. Any more is for another thread.

 

[511]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993268054609064101

great it's official

 

[DZero]

There are other factors in play. But. Politics aside, removing Japan's photoresist supply would shut down most of the PRC's fabs. It's not a material that can be stockpiled.

The issue is the rare earths, China pulls that and Japan will stop their Rapidus project a long time unless they makes processors without it... Japan might pull it, but when?

 

[maddie]

The issue is the rare earths, China pulls that and Japan will stop their Rapidus project a long time unless they makes processors without it... Japan might pull it, but when?

Everyone has guns aimed at each other but some fools are so shortsighted, they only see the guns in their own hand.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The real question I had, in particular, is if this effective embargo on photoresist is real and how long it will be before semiconductor production in mainland PRC falls off a cliff? That is going to affect a lot of people regardless of how anyone feels about the geopolitics of the matter.

 

[desrever]

Japan is in serious economic trouble and their PM is double downing on anything anti China to deflect the media from it.

Funny thing is, trade with China is one of the few things keeping Japan's economy from pretty much imploding.

 

[DZero]

Japan is in serious economic trouble and their PM is double downing on anything anti China to deflect the media from it.

Funny thing is, trade with China is one of the few things keeping Japan's economy from pretty much imploding.

And US alone won't allow Japan to do that considering that China might pull the trigger for everyone. And also that implies that USA or any other won't be safe if Japan does the same thing to them by later.

Everyone has guns aimed at each other but some fools are so shortsighted, they only see the guns in their own hand.

Basically the current economy these days.

 

[RTX]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993268054609064101

great it's official

Did he actually take 20 boxes of material with him without anyone noticing?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993480024046109069

@Geddagod

 

[511]

Did he actually take 20 boxes of material with him without anyone noticing?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993480024046109069

@Geddagod
View attachment 134449

bruh he has it on his profile

Malaysia checks out tbh for meng Intel is one of the largest companies there

 

[adamge]

I gained more Intel 2026 hype from this one video than any other media. I'm excited.
The product does look impressive as he lays it out.

 

[Geddagod]

Did he actually take 20 boxes of material with him without anyone noticing?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993480024046109069

@Geddagod
View attachment 134449

Yes? I'm american lol

 

[511]

Raichu Japan was expected tbh from the tweets

 

[marees]

Apple's plan is for Intel to begin shipping its lowest-end M processor, utilizing the 18AP advanced node, as early as 2Q–3Q27, but the actual timeline remains contingent on development progress following the receipt of PDK 1.0/1.1.

Apple’s lowest-end M processor is currently used in the MacBook Air and iPad Pro mainly, with combined shipments of roughly 20 million units for 2025. As MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor, shipments of lowest-end M processor in both 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 15–20 million units.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994422001952555318

 

[Khato]

Certainly a good rumor for Intel, and quite likely to be true. I'll not be the least bit surprised to see the other major players take a similar approach - TSMC for the flagship products that need the leading edge node, Intel for n-1 where it's easily good enough and comes with bonus political points.

 

[jpiniero]

Apple’s lowest-end M processor is currently used in the MacBook Air and iPad Pro mainly, with combined shipments of roughly 20 million units for 2025. As MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor, shipments of lowest-end M processor in both 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 15–20 million units.

If Apple is serious about selling it, it'd have to be a dual source situation... and like what happened with GloFo they could just end up not using it. Maybe Trump will sell his Intel stock by then.

 

[adroc_thurston]

it'd have to be a dual source situation..

Why

 

[jpiniero]

Why

This is just to appease Trump. I doubt they are serious much further than that.

 

[poke01]

Apple's plan is for Intel to begin shipping its lowest-end M processor, utilizing the 18AP advanced node, as early as 2Q–3Q27, but the actual timeline remains contingent on development progress following the receipt of PDK 1.0/1.1.

Apple’s lowest-end M processor is currently used in the MacBook Air and iPad Pro mainly, with combined shipments of roughly 20 million units for 2025. As MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor, shipments of lowest-end M processor in both 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 15–20 million units.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994422001952555318

Oh it will be interesting to compare Nova Lake-H and M7.

 

[adroc_thurston]

This is just to appease Trump. I doubt they are serious much further than that.

You can just ignore the orange chimp.
US will be stuck in a dutch-style legislative deadlock soon enough anyway.

Oh it will be interesting to compare Nova Lake-H and M7.

That would be a massacre. Don't.

 

[jpiniero]

You can just ignore the orange chimp.
US will be stuck in a dutch-style legislative deadlock soon enough anyway.

Correct. But they want to appease him now. That's why I mentioned what happened with GloFo as an example.

 

[Doug S]

Certainly a good rumor for Intel, and quite likely to be true. I'll not be the least bit surprised to see the other major players take a similar approach - TSMC for the flagship products that need the leading edge node, Intel for n-1 where it's easily good enough and comes with bonus political points.

For political points all you need is the announcement / intention, not the follow through. Apple can design an 18AP version of M7 alongside a TSMC version, and if Intel delivers fine they ship that one, and are interested in doing more with Intel with 14A etc. If Intel fails to deliver they ship the TSMC version, and can say "hey we tried" to defuse any political pressure.

They have good reasons to want Intel to succeed, and to get experience designing with them whether or not they follow through to manufacturing. There are also other parts they might consider for it - I've mentioned modems here before since they aren't using leading edge nodes anyway and their wifi/bluetooth chip is a similar story.

 

[johnsonwax]

If Apple is serious about selling it, it'd have to be a dual source situation... and like what happened with GloFo they could just end up not using it. Maybe Trump will sell his Intel stock by then.

15-20 million units of the bases chip is about what they ship annually, so if the rumor is correct then its a sole source. Though it also sounds like Pro/Max/Ultra would be staying with TSMC which is odd. Apple reuses their cores, so presumably they're either changing that or creating two designs for the same core, which I'm having trouble buying.