Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,529
10,014
136
manly said:
Yeah the August euphoria has definitely degraded into a "quagmire." It's a bit crazy (and scary and sad) how tight WI and PA are. I like Tim Walz, but it does make you wonder a bit how Josh Shapiro would have played out.

One thing I read last night is that betting markets have rarely been wrong about the U.S. presidential election (about 150 year history of betting in the UK on our elections). Over a century and a half, they've only missed twice. The first time was Truman vs Dewey (which was a coin flip). The other time was 2016 when Clinton was 80% to win in the betting markets.

Right now DJT is about 52% in the betting markets; and as Nate Silver put it recently, he expects this tight affair to continue until election day.
Click to expand...

This is sobering and informative.
 
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Brainonska511

Brainonska511

Lifer
Dec 10, 2005
28,192
12,870
136
Indus said:
Maybe we need to realize our current state is more awful than the mass migration crisis would be.

Do you see Greeks and Turks killing each other now? How about the Armenian Genocide?

We have to learn from history.. sometimes 2 sides just don't get along and we need partition to move on with our lives.
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Learn from history by doing the bad thing doesn't sound like you learned properly.

The current state of things is not worse than a mass migration crisis coupled with a huge recession that would be induced by your proposed break-up and the likely wars that will breakout around the world because of the power vacuum created.
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,761
54,788
136
Muse said:

This is sobering.
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I’m not going to watch a video but having no idea what the person said the idea that historians are good at predicting elections is laughable. Lichtmann is as close as they have come and his rubric is a joke.
 
Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,695
10,905
136
K1052 said:
Walz has consistently the highest approval of any person on either ticket. If Harris loses it won't be because of Walz.
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Don't argue with unmanly.

He's a professor of brainrot with honors from Trump University.

He clearly knows better than all of us!
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,193
3,977
136
Indus said:
Don't argue with unmanly.

He's a professor of brainrot with honors from Trump University.

He clearly knows better than all of us!
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It's really funny how the dumbest person on this sub-forum (that's you since you don't realize it) thinks everybody else is dumb.
Even if you weren't so dumb, your bigotry and personal morality are just a touch better than Herr Trump.

Keep slinging 💩 and dumb ass "solutions" to intractable problems. That's about all you're good at besides being a hysterical Karen all the time.
 
Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,529
10,014
136
fskimospy said:
I’m not going to watch a video but having no idea what the person said the idea that historians are good at predicting elections is laughable. Lichtmann is as close as they have come and his rubric is a joke.
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She's not about predicting the outcome, she's more about explaining what would happen if Trump wins. She details this considerably in the video. She's a professor, it's like seeing a concise lecture. Avoiding it is your prerogative, certainly, but I found it edifying.
 
cytg111

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,869
15,324
136
fskimospy said:
I’m not going to watch a video but having no idea what the person said the idea that historians are good at predicting elections is laughable. Lichtmann is as close as they have come and his rubric is a joke.
Click to expand...
And that is not what the video is about, it's about analogues to project 2025 in history past.
 
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feralkid

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,843
4,941
136
fskimospy said:
The bill of rights is essentially what exists to protect against the tyranny of the majority.

The main threat today is the tyranny of the minority. David Frum of all people was right when he said if conservatives realize they can no longer achieve their agenda through democratic means they will not abandon conservatism, they will abandon democracy.

Turns out that was awfully prophetic.
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But haven't they now abandoned both?
 
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Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,695
10,905
136
MrSquished said:
I've had it with the radical far leftist bernie bro type folks this election and the dumb as fuck gaza is the only issue that matters kids.

www.threads.net

Travis Meadors (@travismeadors_) on Threads

Leftist: We wont vote Harris: Okay i will go find other votes You can’t have a say about what goes on inside of the big tent if you refuse to be inside of it.
www.threads.net www.threads.net

View attachment 109053
Click to expand...

One comment in there about them made me lol

If you want your views represented in a representative democracy, then you need to AVOID participating. Everyone knows that!
 
cytg111

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,869
15,324
136
MrSquished said:
I've had it with the radical far leftist bernie bro type folks this election and the dumb as fuck gaza is the only issue that matters kids.

www.threads.net

Travis Meadors (@travismeadors_) on Threads

Leftist: We wont vote Harris: Okay i will go find other votes You can’t have a say about what goes on inside of the big tent if you refuse to be inside of it.
www.threads.net www.threads.net

View attachment 109053
Click to expand...
Yea TYT is on her case hard cause of the Cheney endorsements... I find TYT approximating objectivity most of the time but then there is the 5% where they're off the emotional rocker...
 
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Fenixgoon

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,160
12,606
136
MrSquished said:
I've had it with the radical far leftist bernie bro type folks this election and the dumb as fuck gaza is the only issue that matters kids.

www.threads.net

Travis Meadors (@travismeadors_) on Threads

Leftist: We wont vote Harris: Okay i will go find other votes You can’t have a say about what goes on inside of the big tent if you refuse to be inside of it.
www.threads.net www.threads.net

View attachment 109053
Click to expand...
Converting Republican voters counts double - trump losses votes AND Harris gains votes. That is huge.
 
P

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,064
9,937
136
Brainonska511 said:
So a mass migration crisis? Sounds awful.
Click to expand...

I'm sure it won't be any worse than India/Pakistan in '47/'48.../s

Also, it's not purely an ethnicity/cultural divide, it's partially a socio-economic one, so you quite likely will get the divide reproduced within the new states.
 
Pens1566

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,532
10,970
136
K1052 said:
Walz has consistently the highest approval of any person on either ticket. If Harris loses it won't be because of Walz.
Click to expand...

Unless she loses because PA goes red by ~2k or so votes. Then you could make a really good argument that Shapiro would have pulled 1001 of those ...
 
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Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,543
9,773
136
pmv said:
The graphs on this article are interesting
Click to expand...
I have long believed that winning the 2020 election resulted in Biden getting stuck holding the bag for the pandemic. It was a feeling of despair watching us gain just enough power to be held responsible while not having enough power to do anything truly good or consequential to help the American people. Winning elections is an almost fraudulent outcome in America where winning does NOT result in the power to govern. Government remains divided and the winners of elections get to sit back and watch the opposition !@#$ the bed.

Biden had NOTHING to do with the consequences of COVID. But rising prices immediately fell prey to Republican propaganda. And I have not heard Democrats fight back over that issue to reclaim the truth of the matter. Certainly not been present in the campaign. So when Americans ask themselves "are we better today than four years ago?" that answer IS damaging to Democrats. For no good reason other than it is a weapon for Republicans to issue undisputed lies.
 
Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,543
9,773
136
pmv said:
The graphs on this article are interesting
Click to expand...
Far as graphs go....

Robert Reich's Inequality for All prominently featured this data, and I have been posting about it here for probably the past decade.
The GAP between productivity and wages is the suffering of the American people in our lifetime.

Before Trump. Before MAGA. If you want to know why I am a Democrat. "It's the economy, stupid!"

chart-1.jpg
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,761
54,788
136
Jaskalas said:
I have long believed that winning the 2020 election resulted in Biden getting stuck holding the bag for the pandemic. It was a feeling of despair watching us gain just enough power to be held responsible while not having enough power to do anything truly good or consequential to help the American people. Winning elections is an almost fraudulent outcome in America where winning does NOT result in the power to govern. Government remains divided and the winners of elections get to sit back and watch the opposition !@#$ the bed.

Biden had NOTHING to do with the consequences of COVID. But rising prices immediately fell prey to Republican propaganda. And I have not heard Democrats fight back over that issue to reclaim the truth of the matter. Certainly not been present in the campaign. So when Americans ask themselves "are we better today than four years ago?" that answer IS damaging to Democrats. For no good reason other than it is a weapon for Republicans to issue undisputed lies.
Click to expand...
I mean we are undoubtedly way way better off than we were four years ago. The basic deal is republicans pretend Trump wasn’t president in 2020.
 
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