Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

Page 4 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
Toggle sidebar Toggle sidebar
hal2kilo

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
26,015
12,260
136
MrSquished said:
Fyi there will be a white dude's for Kamala Harris zoom call tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. Mayor Pete will be on the call as well.

docs.google.com

WHITE DUDES FOR HARRIS CALL SIGN-UP FORM

Thank you for RSVP'ing to the White Dudes for Harris kickoff call! Over 50,000 white men from all across the country are expected to join the effort this week and will be on hand to welcome Vice President Harris to the presidential race and pledge to help get her elected. Together, we aren’t...
docs.google.com docs.google.com
Click to expand...
These whites dudes?

www.newsweek.com

"White Dudes For Harris" sees thousands sign up against T...

The group hopes to organize white men to throw their support behind Kamala Harris against Donald Trump.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,251
4,031
136
Indus said:
Yeah unlike squishy and some others, I'm not convinced Kam can do it. Just remember Obama and the polls saying he was going to win by 14 points.. he won by 7. Hillary and the polls saying she was winning by 5, she lost by 2. Biden and the polls saying he was winning by 10, he won by 4.

The polls are rigged for dem overconfidence.. be very very cautious!
Click to expand...
Hillary did not lose by 2.

Currently, Fox News polling has a dead heat in the Rust Belt battleground states:

If Dems underperform the current polling averages by 4 points, then obviously we're fucked but you have no way to know that. You're the dumb ass who insisted 10 days ago that Joe Biden is your ride or die.
 
S

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,281
3,085
136
While I'm glad if it's catching on....wtf did people think the GOP has been about for decades? Sure it's weirder now, and they are bolder about saying it all out loud, but the message hasn't changed that much. I will say that I can't imagine something as completely bonkers as qAnon being accepted in the 80s or 90s.
 
P

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,142
10,039
136
I have no idea whether Harris can do it (still don't know that much about her), but I don't think one should underestimate the boost from having a candidate who isn't an ancient old fossil. To me, just that alone means it feels like an immense relief - thank God they've got someone who doesn't remind one of the pre-Gorbachev era of the USSR.

Also the Republicans seem to be treating the election as a strange form of psychotherapy, so two guys with unresolved issues around their childhoods can try and work through them (or avoid facing up to them).
 
  • Haha
Reactions: dank69
S

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,281
3,085
136
I feel the same. I went from complete anxiety over the election to now some amount of hope.

It also seemed like by far the thing I heard the most about both candidates--from people on different sides--is that "they are too old". Of course one of them was trying to sell me on RFK jr and I just shook my head and said don't bother. Even if he wasn't a dirtbag loon I'm not voting for someone who quite literally has a 0% chance to win the election. But the main selling point was that he was younger than the dinosaurs. If a lot of people feel this way, maybe...just maybe.
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,251
4,031
136
Stokely said:
I feel the same. I went from complete anxiety over the election to now some amount of hope.

It also seemed like by far the thing I heard the most about both candidates--from people on different sides--is that "they are too old". Of course one of them was trying to sell me on RFK jr and I just shook my head and said don't bother. Even if he wasn't a dirtbag loon I'm not voting for someone who quite literally has a 0% chance to win the election. But the main selling point was that he was younger than the dinosaurs. If a lot of people feel this way, maybe...just maybe.
Click to expand...
It's fairly obvious that Joe Biden was going to lose. According to polls, some 70%+ of voters said he was too old for the job. Politico reported the thing that finally convinced him to pass the baton were dismal polls from PA and MI, two must-win states.

IMHO Harris is still the underdog, but at least she's got a "puncher's chance" now. The first week has gone incredibly well for her, but there's a lot of campaign runway left and Dems have to not only defeat DJT, they have to do it with a rigged Electoral College system.

RJK Jr. is 70 years old; he's not that far away from dinosaur status himself. Most U.S. public corporations wouldn't even consider hiring a 70 year old for a senior executive position.
 
S

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,281
3,085
136
The age thing is spot on though. That's not the same as people discounting the hatred for Hillary built up for decades, and the fear in the end of not having a burly man's man there to protect us all :) What corporation would hire a 70-year-old for a four year contract? Let alone an eight year one? How about a 78-year-old?

I'm not even 60 and age would make it harder for me if I had to get another job. And my job is probably 100 times less stressful or busy than the POTUS.

It's insanity on the face of it. Life expectancy for males in the US is like 76. So you'd not only be betting they'd outlive that, you'd be betting they'd stay high-functioning.

I didn't realize RFK jr was that old. That's too old in my book to be running. My favorite was Warren but she's too old as well.

But anyway, it's done.
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,251
4,031
136
nakedfrog said:
Just as obvious as it was that Hillary Clinton was going to win? :)
Click to expand...
Tru dat.

Probabilistically Joe Biden still had some chance of winning. But it's hard to see how it happens when many in your own party and a large chunk of your own voters has deserted you. Immediately after the debate, some of us thought if he could be near perfect on the campaign trail, that he could stay in and maybe even win. But he was far from perfect in the final weeks and days.

My point was that with all the headwinds Joe Biden was facing, there was only 1 Biden Cultist left here. :p
 
MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
26,067
24,395
136
Yeah I saw Hilary post this today and I'm happy

"If Republican leaders don't enjoy being called weird, creepy, and controlling, they could try not being weird, creepy, and controlling."
 
dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,011
4,619
126
Indus said:
Just remember Obama and the polls saying he was going to win by 14 points.. he won by 7. Hillary and the polls saying she was winning by 5, she lost by 2. Biden and the polls saying he was winning by 10, he won by 4.

The polls are rigged for dem overconfidence.. be very very cautious!
Click to expand...
??? I think you misremember poll results and final election tallies. Either that or you are cherry picking polls.

Polls had Obama up by an average of 7.9% over McCain: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/todays-polls-and-final-election/ He won by 7.2% (underperforming the poll average by 0.7%).

Polls had Obama up by an average of 1.6% over Romney: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/ He won by 3.9% (overperforming the poll average by 2.3%).

Polls had Clinton up by an average of 3.6% over Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ She got 3.0% more votes than Trump (underperforming the poll average by 0.6%)

Polls had Biden up by an average of 8.4% over Trump:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/ He got 4.5% more votes than Trump (underperforming the poll average by 3.9%).

In half of your examples, the actual final error was less than 1% (not bad for polls that often are +-3% for each candidate). I'd personally call those spot-on. In 1/4 of your examples, Democrats did noticeably better than the polls. In 1/4th of your examples, Democrats did noticeably worse than the polls. But even then, well within the +-3% for each candidate (remember that is ~+-6% for the overall result since you add the two errors when determining winner or loser*). That doesn't scream rigged in one direction to me.


* if candidate A is 48% +-3% and B is 52% +-3%, then the result could likely range from A 45% and B 55% (B wins by 10%) to A 51% and B 49% (A wins by 2%). The error range is B wins by 4% +- 6%. Notice how 6% is double the 3% of the individual candidate error.
 
Last edited:
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,581
46,217
136
balloonshark said:
I am not impressed. So both candidates are flip flopping around on issues. I hope she starts getting serious about what her policies are soon because so far I have no reason to go to the polls in Nov. Not that my vote counts anyways here but I like to vote to send a message.
Click to expand...

Basically the policies of the current admin more or less. She has to run hard to the center and that’s what she’s doing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: [DHT]Osiris, skyking and nakedfrog
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,251
4,031
136
balloonshark said:
I am not impressed. So both candidates are flip flopping around on issues. I hope she starts getting serious about what her policies are soon because so far I have no reason to go to the polls in Nov. Not that my vote counts anyways here but I like to vote to send a message.
Click to expand...
What message are you sending to us when you can’t tell which candidate is more suited to be POTUS?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sheik Yerbouti, [DHT]Osiris and repoman0
nakedfrog

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
62,695
18,829
136
K1052 said:
Basically the policies of the current admin more or less. She has to run hard to the center and that’s what she’s doing.
Click to expand...
Yeah, IDGAF, we're not getting most of that stuff without a strong D majority anyhow, and "more of the same" is literally what I expected from Harris. We got bigger (orange) fish to fry anyway.
 
  • Love
Reactions: Jaskalas and skyking
balloonshark

balloonshark

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2008
7,127
3,605
136
K1052 said:
Basically the policies of the current admin more or less. She has to run hard to the center and that’s what she’s doing.
Click to expand...
Those are all republican stances and not center. We are facing so many problems and I'm not seeing any solutions to any of those problems. I would like more clarification because just ignoring those issues isn't going to cut it. I always assumed Harris was a wall street democrat (republican light) and this just reinforces that assumption.

manly said:
What message are you sending to us when you can’t tell which candidate is more suited to be POTUS?
Click to expand...
I know which is more suited (and I won't vote R) but I'm thinking big picture. We need to start thinking about our future on this planet. Nothing is going to change when both parties have the same stances. Trump is a monster but when Harris has the same policies it's just gut wrenching.

I want us to start fixing issues and stop kicking the can down the road like both parties have done for years.
 
S

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,281
3,085
136
balloonshark said:
I am not impressed. So both candidates are flip flopping around on issues. I hope she starts getting serious about what her policies are soon because so far I have no reason to go to the polls in Nov. Not that my vote counts anyways here but I like to vote to send a message.
Click to expand...

Not too thrilled with any of that either, but I'd argue they are center.

IMO I don't want any Democrat to mention the word "gun". That battle is lost. There are winnable ones out there. If they do go for any kind of ban, I'll support it (the 2nd amendment is obsolete IMO) but I think there are too many people on both sides and the middle that just love their popguns too much. At least, wait until you are elected to try anything.

When one party is saying climate change is made up, I'll take what I can get.

But yeah, the time to start worrying not about the planet but our place in it was decades ago, but late is better than never. Ma Nature will come back in time, but we might not. Covid tantrums told me our modern society is fragile indeed, that was nothing compared to what's coming.
 
  • Like
Reactions: [DHT]Osiris, zinfamous, K1052 and 1 other person
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

COMPANY
RESOURCES
FOLLOW
Top Bottom