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Japan orders 80 F/A-22 Raptors!!
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I really disagree here. I can't see a plausible scenario in the remotely near future where Japan goes to war with the US. The only real concern I see here would be if Japan sold the technological knowledge they gained from the F-22s to other countries. The US would gain huge benefits from the lowering of the per unit cost if Japan purchased 80 F-22s.
Anyone care to tell me how this benefits Taiwan? The US is only selling Taiwan F-16, and diesel submarines that we've already decommisioned from our navy. Taiwan is spending billions to pick up the trash of the US navy. Taiwan wanted Aegis cruisers and they got a big no no from the US. If Japan gets these F-22s for "defensive" purposes. Then why can't Taiwan under the same defintiion. If this thread was about the US selling Taiwan F-22s, there'd be an immediate outcry from the Peoples Republic of China over US interference in China's "internal affairs". Why do you think China has taken a relatively neutral stance in the war on terror. Why do you think China steadfastly refuses to adjust it's interest rates? It's all political leverage on the US. Japan has become too passive as far as its military goes. I have no problem with Japan getting F-22s. Taiwan, however, is the coutnry that could really use them but will never get them in the near future.
I can totally relate to what you are saying. Sigh...
Unfortunately there is no way that Taiwan can stop picking up US Navy's trash, because no other country is willing to sell arms to Taiwan. There used to be France, but looking at the way the Frenchies are kissing up China now I guess that would mean no way. Another possibility is South Korea, but their weapons aren't that advanced either. When I heard the news, my friends asked me the same question, when can Taiwan get these F-22s? I jokingly replied "by the time USAF is flying X-Wings."
How does this benefit Taiwan? From my point of view, anything that would make the Commies think twice before attacking is a good thing for Taiwan.
Think about it like this.
If we do not sell them top of the line weapons then Japan is very capable of building them alone and then they can sell that technology to whoever they want. Right now the tanks and jets are produced by Mitsubishi. If Japan really wants these jets and they are rejected, then they will just flood other companies besides Mitsubishi to develop planes, tanks. Maybe they can get multiple companies to work together.
Plus Japan and the U.S are very close. The U.S market would be a mess if Japan was to get into a long war.
If we do not sell them top of the line weapons then Japan is very capable of building them alone and then they can sell that technology to whoever they want. Right now the tanks and jets are produced by Mitsubishi. If Japan really wants these jets and they are rejected, then they will just flood other companies besides Mitsubishi to develop planes, tanks. Maybe they can get multiple companies to work together.
Plus Japan and the U.S are very close. The U.S market would be a mess if Japan was to get into a long war.
Ok, the basic summary of the situation in my mind is this. While Japan's military is somewhat decent, its nowhere remotely near what it would need to be to take on the US. US Naval superiority alone would allow the US to force Japan to terms in a hypothetical conflict given that Japan is vulnerable as an island nation. I'm assuming you're talking about some new stealth bombers being produced for Japan. The only real concern I might have is the technological tranfer to other countries issue, because some stealth bombers would not alter the fundamental military equation for a Japan US conflict. I also have a hard time seeing Japan allying with another country with a potent military against the Us anytime soon. Stealth bombers are also not completely invisible to radar under all conditions and if Japan wanted to hit the US mainland or even Hawaii with them, the refueling planes would presumably give the location of the stealth bombers away. Since selling the stealth bombers would not fundimentally alter the US's basic security situation and a conflict with Japan is unlikely, I wouldn't have a problem selling them.
konakona
Diamond Member
Russians are very proficient at building weaponry, they are still ahead of the game in certain areas like missile weaponry. yet their consumer electronics industry is pretty much non existant and its been like that for past few decades. what makes you think having good technology for cars translates into a ability to a formidable weapon system at will? from what i heard, F-2 was far from success in terms of cost/performance and it wasnt even built from ground up. same goes for type 89 rifle and other domestically developed weapons. there is no denying there are many related technologies which would probably give them a potential to become a leading weaponry developer in the distant future, but that doesnt mean they could start building fighter jets matching the level of american ones anytime soon.
Falloutboy
Diamond Member
the problem is no matter what we give taiwan it won't be much help if thier invaded...so if we give them f22s then china will have the ability to clone them after they invade taiwan. this is the same with any advanced weapons we sell them, this is why we sell them old stuff so its no big deal if china gets them
Falloutboy
Diamond Member
True that would be proubly the only way to stop an invation the problem is it would have to be done covertly because if the world found out that we gave them nukes then we just lost all our credibility on stoping IRAN and NK from having nukes.
Maybe Japan already has one. You just never know for sure.
How many people were surprised that Israel has a nuke? Apparently not that many.
Then why would people be surprised by Japan hogging a nuke?
Sure, they've got legality and diplomatic formality issues, but that didn't stop them for changing the law and sending troops to Iraq or petition to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
There is a rumor in Asia that goes like this.
About 3 years ago, China's deputy minister of defense went to visit Japan to talk about regional stability and cooperation issues. Everything was fine until the discussion got to the point about Taiwan.
China's deputy minister of defense threatened Japan that if they dare to hinder China's reunification process (war) with Taiwan, then China will not rule out the possibility of launching a nuke toward Tokyo.
One of Japan's official responded, "Japan has more than 50 tons of Plutonium and Uranium reserves. With our industrial capability, we should be able to produce at least 3000 nuclear warheads in a surprising short amount of time. Besides, combining with Japan's advanced aeronautics and electronic technology, ALL of China will be within Japan's striking distance."
The meeting went into a tight deadlock so they called it a day.
Of course, this is just a rumor, but it has appeared in Chinese and Taiwanese media a couple of times as far as I am concerned. Taiwanese media usually regard this with more enthusiasm, while Chinese media typically dismiss it as a hoax. I don't read Japanese, so I am not sure how the Japanese covered this rumor in their media. So, which side SHOULD we believe and which side do we WANT to believe?
Falloutboy
Diamond Member
I am having a not so good feeling about the stability of asia seems to be the middle east but the countries are alot more advanced. granted you don't have the religouse problems but you have something that can sometimes be worse a whole bunch of countries the are trying to compete econically
While I'd love to believe that Japan would so enthusiastically defend Taiwan. I just don't see it happening. There is an inherent divide between Japan and Taiwan/China due to the Japanese atrocities during WWII. More so between China and Japan than between Taiwan and Japan but it's still there. From a US perspective, I think letting Japan get F-22's can't be a bad thing. Japan is the strongest supporter of the war on terror in Asia. I can't foresee any circumstance in which Japan would turn on the US. Taiwan is hopeless at this point, imo. If President Chen were to really declare independence, China would be landing troops on Taiwan before the US ships can even leave Pearl Harbor. China has hundreds of ballistic missiles strategically placed along the coastline aimed right at Taiwan. Taiwan stands no chance in a military conflict. All President Chen is accomplishing with his campaign rhteoric is pushing Taiwan to brink of war. For the PROC, it's a matter or pride, they'd be embarrassed if they let Taiwan "secede". They're on record as saying they'd risk jeopardizing 2008 Beijing Olympics by attacking Taiwan if that meant that they'd prevent Taiwan from declaring independence. This is one game of cat and mouse that Taiwan can't win, US wants no part of, and China with the advantage.
Falloutboy
Diamond Member
true militarily china can easily take taiwan and the risk to the US is to0 great to interevien but whats stopping the US from imposing a trade embargo on china heck if we do it along with a few other eurpean nations we can bring thier economy to its knees
I would also love to believe that both US and Japan will enthusiastically defend Taiwan against China, however the chances of both US and Japan risking total war with a disillusioned nuclear power is so remote.
If US wants no part of, then US wouldn't have been involved for the past 50 years or so. Of course, you can say that was because there was a cold war going on with the big, bad, and more evil Soviet Union. However, with the way Russia is turning nowadays and their ties with China, it is also possible that Big Red Soviet Bloc is back except this time it's Beijing calling the shots.
I'm not so sure about that devide between China/Taiwan and Japan.
I can only speak of my experience with the the younger generation (because I have no friends among older asian immigrants - I just know 16-21 year olds from Taiwan, mainland China, and Hong Kong), but it seems to me that they look up to Japanese people and Japan.
Regarding Chinese/Taiwanese/Hong Kong girls: they adopt Japanese sayings in to their every-day language, like "Kawaii!" and "Neeeee?" -- meaning "cute!", and "eh?", and I eat out at Japanese (sushi, ramen, et. al.) restaurants with them much more frequently than Chinese restaurants.
A guy from mainland China (moved here last year) who I go to school with is teaching himself Japanese, with help from his father, who also knows Japanese.
Many other Chinese/Taiwanese/Hong Kong people I know are obsessive fans of Japanese Manga/Anime, and talk about nothing else 😛
It seems to me that Japan is the cultural leader/center of Asia -- Asian fashion and trends revolve around Japan (although Korea is steadily taking a larger cultural role) -- so I don't think that Chinese people distrust Japanese in any way. Though, I suppose, the government has a longer memory.
As to the question that has been asked several times by people in this thread: It is in Taiwan's interest for Japan to have a better military because Taiwan is desperate for any check to the mainland's increasing power.
A previous thread on P+T dealt with Chinese/Japanese relations, and it was mentioned that Japanese generals deduced that one of the most effective ways for China to invade Taiwan was for China to first attack Japan -- to prevent it from becoming a staging point for American troops to defend Taiwan until it was too late.
Needless to say, Japan/Taiwan political relations are much more relaxed and friendly than Japan/China relations.
Falloutboy
Diamond Member
yup very true. yes it would be hard on are economy in the short term but it will make are economy alot more healthy in the long term by forcing us to rely more on local good which would stimulate industry in the US and creat more jobs
Frankly you're outright wrong about the military situation right now. While this may change in the future, right now China lacks enough amphibious transport capability to take out Taiwan. Taiwan also has approximately a 200,000 man standing army and a 1.5 million army reserve.
The major reason China can't simply take over Taiwan is due to the fact that Taiwan enjoys the defensive advantage of having a large streach of ocean between them. With regards to amphibious landing operations against Taiwan, Taiwan's small size actually works against China. If Taiwan were the size of England, there would be alot of coastline for Taiwan's army and navy to protect and defend, but Taiwan's coastline means that China has little chance of simply sneaking by Taiwan's defenses and pulling off a landing.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is even further complicated by the fact that the western coast of Taiwan is mostly covered by tidal mudflats that streach for miles off the coast and ensure that any transport crossing the area would get stuck, while much of the eastern part of Taiwan is cliffs rather than beaches. This leaves less than 20% of the coastline as viable for invasion and this is before you factor in that only a portion of these remaining beaches are going to be suitable for an amphibious landing. The Island of Taiwan itself has around 1,100 kilometers of coastline (its a little difficult to calculate exactly since the statistics I found included the outlying islands.) Since less than 20% of this coastline is usable for an invasion beachhead, this means that Taiwan's standing army of 200,000 could be deployed with over 910 soldier per every kilometer of Taiwan. If Taiwan's reserves are all mobilized, (which actually are 1.5 million troops) you are looking at more than 7730 soldier per every kilometer of usable invasion coastline.
This number gets alot higher when you consider that the Taiwanese army is aware that the most viable invasion targets are the parts of Taiwan closest to Mainland China and the defense of the most attractive invasion beaches are prioritized. The small size of Taiwan as an island means that it doesn't take defensive forces that long to react to amphibious landings and move to reinforce other units.
As the following source notes ""China would take at least 48 hours, contingent on good weather, to make a round trip to fetch reinforcements, within which Taiwan would have successfully marshalled her troops to the battlefield."
http://www.mindef.gov.sg/safti...als/2003/Vol29_2/7.htm
This delay before reinforcements arrive means that in order to hold a beachhead, China would realisticly need at least 100,000 troops to sucessfully land on the invasion target on Taiwan, (this is assuming a surprise attack with most of Taiwan's reserves not mobilized yet) and getting them there safely is not that easy.
Taiwan's significantly sized navy and air force should certainly be able to launch some anti-shipping missiles and sink some transports early in the conflict. This is double whammy for China as not only are the troops and supplies on board lost, but that transport can't be used to provide future reinforcements.
Besides its airforce and navy, Taiwan can also launch anti-shipping missiles from land bases, and since missiles such as the Hsiung-Feng II has roughly an 80 kilometer range (I've seen more recent evidence suggesting this range may have been extended even for the ordinary missiles of this type), they can start attacking the invading armada from quite a distance. Taiwan also has the M110A2 Self-Propelled Howitzer which has a range of more than 18 miles, as well as the LT-2000 Rocket lauched artillerly system which has a range of 28 miles and can be very lethal against the sort of tighly concentrated armada necessary to overwhelm a beach's defenses. Taiwan can also stick sea minefields in front of the possible invasion beaches as well as have its helicopter use their Hellfire anti-tank missiles to lethal effect against the invasion forces. The mines are a particular problem as they will either delay the invasion while Chinese forces clear them, leaving the transports exposed at sea and giving Taiwan more time to react, or China will lose a huge number of ships with the "Russian penal battalion method" of clearing mines. When the force get close, Taiwan plans to utilize their tank's main gun to target landing craft before they get too close to the beach, and anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin could be used in this role as well.
The additional problem for China is that even if they accomplish the task of landing 100,000 men with the initial force, the transport force would have taken substancial attrition from Taiwan's defenses and many of the transports will need to carry additional supplies for the existing troops that had already landed. If China can't supply the beachhead with enough reinforcement, the invasion force would be overwhelmed by Taiwan's superior numbers that could be quickly deployed by this spot. If the invasion beachhead was destroyed, another fullscale invasion of Taiwan would not be a viable option for China for years untill all of the transport losses have been replaced. These are the sorts of problems China faces invading Taiwan.
The ballistic missiles can do some damage, but several hundred conventional warheads can only do so much damage, especially when they don't have pinpoint accuracy. Against 1.7 million troops dispersed in various locations, the ballistic missile attacks can't impair the military enough to prevent it from being able to repel attacks.
It actually going to be 2 years at a mimimum before China might be capable of taking out Taiwan even if the US does not intervene. It would take China time to react and mobilize forces and transports for an invasion, which the US can easily spot on spy satellites. This gives the US time to move naval forces into position, including nuclear submarines. Just a few US nuclear submarines in the right position could severely complicate China's ability to transport enough men across to defeat Taiwan. The situation isn't as remotely as hopeless as you think.
Well, to summerize Aegon, yes China has a bigy army; however, it is relatively immobile and the only way it could successfully defeat Taiwan is to use Russian tactics(ie: bomb it into the stoneage), which is not something China wants.(Taiwan is a rich "nation," and China doesn't want to change the rich part)
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