J.J. Watt is the 2014 NFL MVP.

[Phoenix86]

sack is one syllable so taps into that anglo-saxon part of the language of simple, powerful words. tackle for loss is way more unwieldy.

Define a sack as a tackle for loss of yards. :hmm:

 

[vi edit]

I think of MVP kind of like WAR, the idea not the specific methodology. If you take out a given player and replace them with the average player, who helped the team the most.

For me, that leaves it between Rogers and Watt.

I could make a serious argument for Luck given that definition.

 

[Phoenix86]

I could make a serious argument for Luck given that definition.

Which I would be OK with, he had a really strong year and was exceedingly valuable to his team.

 

[smackababy]

Which I would be OK with, he had a really strong year and was exceedingly valuable to his team.

Eh, the problem is you can't have an MVP who plays as poorly as Luck. He had 40 more pass attempts than Rodgers, with 2 more touchdowns and 11 more INTs. Luck was valuable to his team, but he did not play a level better than other QBs. Had Luck had identical stats to Rodgers, he'd certainly push himself over him for MVP, but as it stands, it can't simply be about perceived value to a team. Would the Colts have done better / worse with Rodgers at the helm?

It is the leagues most valuable player, and it requires some kind of empirical evidence to support it. Rodgers has played better than any other QB.


I also think there is a lot of bias. Nobody would argue Cutler had a terrible year. Guess what? He had 3 less TDs and the same number of INTs as Phillip Rivers, whom everyone loves. What is the difference? SD won more games.

 

[Homerboy]

Eh, the problem is you can't have an MVP who plays as poorly as Luck. He had 40 more pass attempts than Rodgers, with 2 more touchdowns and 11 more INTs. Luck was valuable to his team, but he did not play a level better than other QBs. Had Luck had identical stats to Rodgers, he'd certainly push himself over him for MVP, but as it stands, it can't simply be about perceived value to a team. Would the Colts have done better / worse with Rodgers at the helm?

It is the leagues most valuable player, and it requires some kind of empirical evidence to support it. Rodgers has played better than any other QB.


I also think there is a lot of bias. Nobody would argue Cutler had a terrible year. Guess what? He had 3 less TDs and the same number of INTs as Phillip Rivers, whom everyone loves. What is the difference? SD won more games.

Don't get me started on the Cutler hate. The guy isn't 1/4 as horrible as everyone makes him out to be. It's because of his demeanor and just his "look" that everyone starts piling on him. They guy just has a sour/pouty look on his face all the time -- whether he just threw an INT or got laid by a supermodel.

 

[Xenon]

You people that say that an average replacement for Watt would have yielded 1 or 2 fewer losses for the Texans are crazy. You obviously do not watch Texans games. Without Watt the Texans defense is HORRID. The next best defensive player on the team is Kareem Jackson. Kareem freaking Jackson. Do you see him in pro bowl? Nope.

 

[smackababy]

Don't get me started on the Cutler hate. The guy isn't 1/4 as horrible as everyone makes him out to be. It's because of his demeanor and just his "look" that everyone starts piling on him. They guy just has a sour/pouty look on his face all the time -- whether he just threw an INT or got laid by a supermodel.

One of Cutler's major problems, that Rivers specifically is the opposite of, is he looks like he lacks passion for the game. Nobody is going to claim Rivers doesn't want to be there. He is visibly worked up on every single down he is on the field; Cutler, on the other hand, might as well be watching NASCAR.

 

[Homerboy]

One of Cutler's major problems, that Rivers specifically is the opposite of, is he looks like he lacks passion for the game. Nobody is going to claim Rivers doesn't want to be there. He is visibly worked up on every single down he is on the field; Cutler, on the other hand, might as well be watching NASCAR.

Right. But that's just the way he LOOKS. That's the problem. I assure you, nobody rises to the level of (top paid) NFL Quarterback without a passion and a love for the game. Cutler just has a depressed look about him ALL THE TIME. On the field. On the bench. In the locker room. Out at a club/bar... he' just has a sour-puss look on his face all the time. But, in reality he preforms pretty decently (as good as, if not better than, half the QBs in the league).

The internet, media and memes have crucified this guy and his demeanor now precedes him.

That being said, I'm EXTREMELY happy he's been the Bears' QB for these past years (GO PACK GO!!!)

 

[darkswordsman17]

#21 Total Defense
#24 Pass Defense
#11 Run Defense
#24-Tied for Opponent First downs
#23-Tied for Sacks

Pretty much the only thing they do good is force turnovers.

Those numbers are meaningless and don't reflect on Watt much at all. Crennel is the DC. He seriously does not care about giving up yards (he was the same way with the Chiefs) and his defenses always are middling if not just bad in those regards (I think the Chiefs defenses were similar in a lot of those stats while Crennel was there, including that one year when they sent like 5-6 defensive guys to the Pro Bowl). Texans finished 7th in scoring defense and the Chiefs 2nd, they were only separated by 2.6ppg though.

Watt stands out because he's a legitimately great player (and like I said I have no problem with him getting more praise than Houston as I think he has had a better year, but the difference between them isn't as great as people seem to think; people act like Watt was just totally so far beyond any other defensive player this year that he deserves the MVP when that really wasn't true).

I think Houston suffers from being on a good defense team. He didn't get the credit he deserved for playing so well, because the rest of his team was doing just as well. Houston, on the other hand, hasn't been performing nearly as well and Watts outstanding accomplishments really are the only thing to talk about from that team.

Chiefs defense is horribly overrated this year. They ranked well but they played teams at the right time (basically never faced a hot QB, closest was Rivers the first game against the Chargers), and if you actually watched the games their defense was nothing special beyond Houston and occasionally a few other guys (I wouldn't be shocked that there's a big disparity in PFF rankings between the teams though, but just looking at the Chiefs they were not as dominant as their stats show).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
According to their DVOA the Texans were far better than the Chiefs through Week 16. Compare that placement there with their scoring ranking, most of the teams are roughly in similar spots but the Chiefs are way off.

watt?

What exactly is your issue? You really think O'Brien bringing the former Pats cronyism that has tanked pretty much every single team it's been applied to is better?

Was Kubiak stellar? No, especially since he just put everything on Schaub (who to be fair was actually playing pretty damn well for years there), but they definitely overreacted to the 2013 season (it's like people forget that they had been improving for about 3-5 years there and were legitimately one of the best teams in 2012). Schaub just wasn't good enough to get them to the next level (but he was nowhere close to being as bad as I saw some people claim). They just needed to find a good enough QB, but instead they adjusted the coaching staff which will set them back probably 3 years at least (and that's still dependent on the coach/GM being willing and able to find a legitimate QB) and could end up squandering most of their talent during that time which will set them back even more.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Right. But that's just the way he LOOKS. That's the problem. I assure you, nobody rises to the level of (top paid) NFL Quarterback without a passion and a love for the game. Cutler just has a depressed look about him ALL THE TIME. On the field. On the bench. In the locker room. Out at a club/bar... he' just has a sour-puss look on his face all the time. But, in reality he preforms pretty decently (as good as, if not better than, half the QBs in the league).

The internet, media and memes have crucified this guy and his demeanor now precedes him.

That being said, I'm EXTREMELY happy he's been the Bears' QB for these past years (GO PACK GO!!!)

It's not just his demeanor. There was some analysis done on Cutler and he's making a lot of fairly basic mistakes still. Seriously, he might be worse than RGIII. (This was a total ass pull but I do remember analysis of Cutler's play like what was done with RGIII and Cutler was just bad, and it's definitely not that Cutler is lacking playmakers/weapons either, in fact I think that has saved his ass for most of his career, hope he's giving plenty of the money he's made to Brandon Marshall as he's probably the biggest reason he received it).

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Watt should win it, Rodgers really hasn't separated himself from the other top QBs this season.

 

[Homerboy]

Watt should win it, Rodgers really hasn't separated himself from the other top QBs this season.

You're kidding right?

 

[vi edit]

I don't question Cutler's toughness. He has taken some brutal hits, shaken them off, and went back to the huddle. But he holds the ball too long, forces far too many throws, and just does too many bonehead moves at the worse times. That could be taking a sack for a major loss or throwing a pick on a critical possession. His stats in Chicago have been padded by Marshall and Jeffery making jump ball circus catches and a ton of dink and dunk passes to forte (104 for a back!)

 

[GrumpyMan]

Well if Rodgers just had 1 defensive touchdown then he should get it.....lol........Watt is the only player in the NFL with both Offensive and Defensive touchdowns, two seasons in a row with over 20 sacks, they triple team him because everyone is scared poopless of him....MVP if you ask me.

 

[ElFenix]

What exactly is your issue? You really think O'Brien bringing the former Pats cronyism that has tanked pretty much every single team it's been applied to is better?

Was Kubiak stellar? No, especially since he just put everything on Schaub (who to be fair was actually playing pretty damn well for years there), but they definitely overreacted to the 2013 season (it's like people forget that they had been improving for about 3-5 years there and were legitimately one of the best teams in 2012). Schaub just wasn't good enough to get them to the next level (but he was nowhere close to being as bad as I saw some people claim). They just needed to find a good enough QB, but instead they adjusted the coaching staff which will set them back probably 3 years at least (and that's still dependent on the coach/GM being willing and able to find a legitimate QB) and could end up squandering most of their talent during that time which will set them back even more.

kubiak isn't head coaching material and frankly i don't see the offensive genius he's supposed to be either. the texans were never near the top of the league in scoring. they weren't even within a touchdown of top in the league. for years and years they'd rack up a bunch of yards between the 20s and then got bogged down in the red zone. (hint to the newspaper writers in town who kept talking up the texans' "elite offense": this isn't fantasy. you don't get points for yards.)

a lot of 2-14 was the front office too. it's clear that the texans were built to win in 2011 and 2012, unfortunately shaub got injured right when the team was really gelling in 2011 and never really recovered from that.

i have no idea what they were doing not trading up a spot and drafting teddy bridgewater. i know getting a franchise QB is a crapshoot but you can't be so scared of missing to not take a chance. it's not going to be any easier trying to find one this year. is mallett going to take anyone deep into the playoffs? really?

 

[GrumpyMan]

Kubiak is like Dom Capers, they are good offensive and defensive coordinators but they make lousy head coaches. And we tried both of them.

 

[smackababy]

Kubiak can get RBs to perform far better than they normally would. I mean, I guess Foster could be a fluke (undrafted FA into rushing champion superstar) and maybe Justin "barely a practice squad player" is another fluke. I mean, he has almost half his total career (7th season, btw) yards this year alone.

I was actually looking forward to a spectacular Ray Rice season, before the wife beating and all.

 

[GoPackGo]

I think Rodgers play yesterday really helps him. That QB sneak for a TD was pretty epic considering his calf injury.

 

[dougp]

kubiak isn't head coaching material and frankly i don't see the offensive genius he's supposed to be either. the texans were never near the top of the league in scoring. they weren't even within a touchdown of top in the league. for years and years they'd rack up a bunch of yards between the 20s and then got bogged down in the red zone. (hint to the newspaper writers in town who kept talking up the texans' "elite offense": this isn't fantasy. you don't get points for yards.)

a lot of 2-14 was the front office too. it's clear that the texans were built to win in 2011 and 2012, unfortunately shaub got injured right when the team was really gelling in 2011 and never really recovered from that.

i have no idea what they were doing not trading up a spot and drafting teddy bridgewater. i know getting a franchise QB is a crapshoot but you can't be so scared of missing to not take a chance. it's not going to be any easier trying to find one this year. is mallett going to take anyone deep into the playoffs? really?

Are you serious? The guy has the best run schemes in the league, BY FAR. Look at what he did with Slaton, Foster and Tate. Now look at what he's done in Baltimore with a shit front-line and a scat back in Forsett.

And to show just how much you know - Texans wouldn't have had to move up AT ALL. They had the #1 pick - they could have had him then, or moved around for more and picked him later.

 

[ElFenix]

Are you serious? The guy has the best run schemes in the league, BY FAR. Look at what he did with Slaton, Foster and Tate. Now look at what he's done in Baltimore with a shit front-line and a scat back in Forsett.

And to show just how much you know - Texans wouldn't have had to move up AT ALL. They had the #1 pick - they could have had him then, or moved around for more and picked him later.

Good at racking up yards but not at scoring points. Again, you don't get points for yards.

Clearly I was referring to Seattle's pick that was traded to Minnesota. They could have had both top prospects.

 

[dougp]

Good at racking up yards but not at scoring points. Again, you don't get points for yards.

Clearly I was referring to Seattle's pick that was traded to Minnesota. They could have had both top prospects.

Giving up what, though? Or maybe the team should have gone for a position they needed to begin with.

Also, Foster had 16, 10, and 15 TDs - and Forsett has 8 this season. Those are just rushing TDs.

Give Kubiak an o-line like the Cowboys have and he'd probably get Chris Johnson another 2k season.

 

[SP33Demon]

Are you serious? The guy has the best run schemes in the league, BY FAR. Look at what he did with Slaton, Foster and Tate. Now look at what he's done in Baltimore with a shit front-line and a scat back in Forsett.

And to show just how much you know - Texans wouldn't have had to move up AT ALL. They had the #1 pick - they could have had him then, or moved around for more and picked him later.

Eh, I agree with you that Kubiak is talented, but Baltimore was a top 3 graded O-Line this year. Forsett was getting 2+ yards before anyone even touched him, his success was more a function of his run blocking than talent.

My thoughts after week 17 for MVP: Rodgers solidified it with a dominant performance on a gimpy calf, does anyone think that Green Bay would have won half as many games with a replacement level QB? 38 TDs and 4 INTs on a playoff team is a stellar year any way you slice it.

I will concede that Watt reaching 20 sacks for another season puts him high in the MVP talks, but to reiterate what others have said, his position simply isn't as important as QB because he's not impacting as many plays with the ball. It's akin to a pitcher winning MVP in baseball, you better lead all other pitchers in almost every category like Kershaw did this year (Wins, ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, K/9, SO/BB). A QB is akin to a stud hitter, they impact more games because they have more chances with the ball in every game. In the end, Watt doesn't lead the league in sacks which I think will hurt him. Houston's big season fucked him, even though we know that it's easier for Houston to get to the QB as a LB than Watt as a double-teamed DL - many of the voters will only see the sack stat and equate that to failure to lead the league in the main defensive statistic. The offensive TDs don't make up the gap for not winning the sack title IMO. That being said, Watt is the most destructive defensive force since Reggie White and has a chance to surpass the Minister of Defense in greatness.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

You're kidding right?

when he has a lower quarter back rating than Tony Romo, can't say that I am.

the only thing he has going for him is the best TD to INT ratio, otherwise he's behind multiple other QBs in every other stat...total TDs, total yards, completion percentage...can't tell me you couldn't plug any of the top 5 QBs into that offense and come away with a nearly identical season considering how many teams finished 11-5 or 12-4 just like GreenBay.

when he won it in 2011 he was far and away the most dominant QB with a rating far higher than anyone else and was 1 TD shy of tying for the most but with a much better TD/INT ratio and a 15-1 record to top it all off

your homer glasses are getting the better of you

 

[SP33Demon]

when he has a lower quarter back rating than Tony Romo, can't say that I am.

the only thing he has going for him is the best TD to INT ratio, otherwise he's behind multiple other QBs in every other stat...total TDs, total yards, completion percentage...can't tell me you couldn't plug any of the top 5 QBs into that offense and come away with a nearly identical season considering how many teams finished 11-5 or 12-4 just like GreenBay.

when he won it in 2011 he was far and away the most dominant QB with a rating far higher than anyone else and was 1 TD shy of tying for the most but with a much better TD/INT ratio and a 15-1 record to top it all off

your homer glasses are getting the better of you

Rodgers has the definitively highest Adjusted QBR (dropped passes, throw aways, spikes, and yards in the air) after Romo's stinker in week 17. For example, Romo's receivers only had 10 dropped passes and Rodgers had 32 on the year. PFF has him at 99.04 and Romo 97.70. And nobody's even close to his 38:5 ratio (despite 32 drops, many which would've been even more TDs) which will deservedly give him the MVP. His 2011 monster season means nothing regarding the 2014 MVP - all that matters is his 2014 performance vs his 2014 peers and he decisively stands out from them.

 

[dougp]

Eh, I agree with you that Kubiak is talented, but Baltimore was a top 3 graded O-Line this year. Forsett was getting 2+ yards before anyone even touched him, his success was more a function of his run blocking than talent.

My thoughts after week 17 for MVP: Rodgers solidified it with a dominant performance on a gimpy calf, does anyone think that Green Bay would have won half as many games with a replacement level QB? 38 TDs and 4 INTs on a playoff team is a stellar year any way you slice it.

I will concede that Watt reaching 20 sacks for another season puts him high in the MVP talks, but to reiterate what others have said, his position simply isn't as important as QB because he's not impacting as many plays with the ball. It's akin to a pitcher winning MVP in baseball, you better lead all other pitchers in almost every category like Kershaw did this year (Wins, ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, K/9, SO/BB). A QB is akin to a stud hitter, they impact more games because they have more chances with the ball in every game. In the end, Watt doesn't lead the league in sacks which I think will hurt him. Houston's big season fucked him, even though we know that it's easier for Houston to get to the QB as a LB than Watt as a double-teamed DL - many of the voters will only see the sack stat and equate that to failure to lead the league in the main defensive statistic. The offensive TDs don't make up the gap for not winning the sack title IMO. That being said, Watt is the most destructive defensive force since Reggie White and has a chance to surpass the Minister of Defense in greatness.

Yet when you look, Baltimore was ranked 32 last year - DEAD LAST. The only changes were a new center and RT - but their RT played at TE last year. Their improvement, as well as Forsett's - all should be attributed to Kubiak and his schemes. I've sat here in Houston since he started coaching here and watched it.