It is possible that Democrats will gain, not lose in November. Here's why/how.

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
35,306
6,826
126
Yea but by the time they realize things aren't improving, it's hard to get them out.
In America, so far... democracy functions. Yes, it's seriously under attack by the Republican excuse for a party these days. Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,350
1,603
126
The one saving grace for Democrats (maybe) is the Roe vs Wade overturn. Besides this, Democrats are in for a very difficult election night. The high cost of living (gas, food) is going to be their downfall I'm afraid.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
35,306
6,826
126
The one saving grace for Democrats (maybe) is the Roe vs Wade overturn. Besides this, Democrats are in for a very difficult election night. The high cost of living (gas, food) is going to be their downfall I'm afraid.
I don't see where electing Republicans will do anything but raise the cost of living.
 
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nOOky

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2004
2,467
1,456
136
The one saving grace for Democrats (maybe) is the Roe vs Wade overturn. Besides this, Democrats are in for a very difficult election night. The high cost of living (gas, food) is going to be their downfall I'm afraid.
I'm not sure about that. You're not going to change the mind of hardcore conservatives or liberals, which leaves the swing voting independents. It seems like it's always a rigorous task to get them out to vote in the first place. I think there has been enough time since that decision that the lazy voters will not be motivated to get out and vote. One thing I'll credit the conservatives for, they do get out and vote, and they'll vote in person to make sure it counts.

It's not just my opinion, if you look at the percentage of eligible voters that get out to vote in this country it's rather abysmal. Unfortunately only after the fact will they realize their rights are taken away. I hope I'm wrong, and turnout is high. Pew seems to think so.

 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
42,429
24,466
136
The one saving grace for Democrats (maybe) is the Roe vs Wade overturn. Besides this, Democrats are in for a very difficult election night. The high cost of living (gas, food) is going to be their downfall I'm afraid.
A lot of Republicans are campaigning on gas prices from Spring 2020. I am curious, short of causing a pandemic that keeps everybody home, what they can or will realistically do to make gasoline cost $2 a gallon again.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,201
7,579
126
We could let MSB quarter and burry a few more reporters and let Putin just continue to bully Europe and the rest of the world. That was the Trump plan.
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,378
1,126
136
The Democratic Party as we know it will and should cease to exist after 2024. When you are less popular than Trump, Oz, MTG, etc...you have some work to do.

Democrats went up against some of the most flawed GOP candidates ever since 2016, and except for 2020-2022, they've been getting their asses handed to them.

If the American experiment ends in the next few years, there will be plenty to blame, and the Democratic party will have its fair share for being so utterly useless.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
42,429
24,466
136
We could let MSB quarter and burry a few more reporters and let Putin just continue to bully Europe and the rest of the world. That was the Trump plan.
I mean even that probably wouldn't do it. Significant US refinery capacity closed in the pandemic that isn't coming back and the shale guys only drill if it's profitable now.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
78,679
37,770
136
The Democratic Party as we know it will and should cease to exist after 2024. When you are less popular than Trump, Oz, MTG, etc...you have some work to do.

Democrats went up against some of the most flawed GOP candidates ever since 2016, and except for 2020-2022, they've been getting their asses handed to them.

If the American experiment ends in the next few years, there will be plenty to blame, and the Democratic party will have its fair share for being so utterly useless.
Really, what should it be replaced by and how would that replacement be better?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
78,679
37,770
136
Honestly I don't know.

But the Dems have gone to the "at least we're not Trump" well one too many times, I'm afraid.
I'm not so sure about that. The median voter hates Trump and so it's always good to tie your opponents to such an unpopular figure. Remember, Trump lost by the biggest margin for an incumbent in almost 50 years and got blown out in 2018 too. Trump is an electoral anchor so it's good to tie people to him.
 

dlerious

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2004
1,487
557
136
I'm not so sure about that. The median voter hates Trump and so it's always good to tie your opponents to such an unpopular figure. Remember, Trump lost by the biggest margin for an incumbent in almost 50 years and got blown out in 2018 too. Trump is an electoral anchor so it's good to tie people to him.
The Republicans gained 2 seats in the Senate in 2018, while the Democrats gained 41 seats in the House. Not quite as good/bad as the 6 Senate and 63 House seats democrats lost in 2010.
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,560
1,170
136
Really, what should it be replaced by and how would that replacement be better?
Maybe a Democratic party that actually emphasizes the needs of the middle class (inflation, the economy, border security, crime, protect SS and medicare) instead of being endlessly hung up on identity politics and abortion. I live in Minnesota, and it used to be a solid D state from top to bottom. The Dems somehow have lost pretty much the entire state except for the major urban areas.

As an example of how inept they are politically, Tim Waltz had a 15 point lead over the R challenger just a few months ago. Now with endless attack ads, and no effective response from Waltz, the race is a dead heat. Same thing is happening in Penn with Dr. Oz, Carrie Lake in Ariz, and even Hershel Walker in Georgia. Somehow the Democrats, who used to be the party of the little guy and middle class have allowed Republicans to co-op that narrative and make the lower and middle class economic groups think they are their advocates.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
78,679
37,770
136
The Republicans gained 2 seats in the Senate in 2018, while the Democrats gained 41 seats in the House. Not quite as good/bad as the 6 Senate and 63 House seats democrats lost in 2010.
It was a bigger blowout than in 2010 if you're looking at vote margin, it's just the 2018 map was further skewed in favor of Republicans so Democrats gained fewer seats.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
78,679
37,770
136
Maybe a Democratic party that actually emphasizes the needs of the middle class (inflation, the economy, border security, crime, protect SS and medicare) instead of being endlessly hung up on identity politics and abortion. I live in Minnesota, and it used to be a solid D state from top to bottom. The Dems somehow have lost pretty much the entire state except for the major urban areas.

As an example of how inept they are politically, Tim Waltz had a 15 point lead over the R challenger just a few months ago. Now with endless attack ads, and no effective response from Waltz, the race is a dead heat. Same thing is happening in Penn with Dr. Oz, Carrie Lake in Ariz, and even Hershel Walker in Georgia. Somehow the Democrats, who used to be the party of the little guy and middle class have allowed Republicans to co-op that narrative and make the lower and middle class economic groups think they are their advocates.
You sure about that?

Democratic margin of victory by year since 2000 (very quick rounding by me):
Biden 2020: 7%
Clinton 2016: 1.5%
Obama 2012: 7.5%
Obama 2008: 10%
Kerry 2004: 3.5%
Gore 2000: 2.5%
Average: 5.4%

So in 2020 Biden outperformed the average margin of victory for Democrats this century by about 1.6%. How does that square with Democrats losing the entire state?
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
28,220
9,022
136
If the American experiment ends in the next few years, there will be plenty to blame, and the Democratic party will have its fair share for being so utterly useless.
It MAY be "comforting" in a self-deluding way to some folks to "laugh" @ this post and others like it but this is one of the most accurate comments I've seen on P&N recently.

Democrats have totally screwed the pooch on messaging this year and we will most likely be getting our collective a$$es handed to us nationally next week as a direct result.

Better hope enough "pro-choice" women to tip the scales get out and vote but I wouldn't suggest holding your breath.

:(
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,560
1,170
136
538 has Waltz by 7.5
RCP has Waltz by 4.3

Sure it's possible the polling is off but I don't think I would describe that as "a dead heat".
Perhaps it is not as bad as I thought, since most recent polls show about a 5% lead for Waltz. That is pretty close to the margin of error though, and still pretty pathetic considering in the spring Waltz was leading by 15 points. It is also horrible considering the quality of the Jensen/Burk ticket. It is amazing that anything more than the 35% MAGA crowd will even consider voting for them.
 

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