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It is possible that Democrats will gain, not lose in November. Here's why/how.

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Pens1566 said:
It's amazing just how bad of a candidate Oz is ... if it weren't for Walker in GA, he'd probably be the worst major race candidate I've ever seen. Just utterly clueless about even the most basic things.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, it's a much closer race in GA with Walker.
and i have no idea why since Walker seems more clueless than Oz.
 
Well here’s another reason Dems might outperform - by a little bit.
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Dying to own the libs - literally.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30512/w30512.pdf
 
Ian will come into play also. With people displaced, voting going to be more difficult. Well assuming these families even care to vote in November. Enough for DeSantis to lose hopefully.
 
eelw said:
Ian will come into play also. With people displaced, voting going to be more difficult. Well assuming these families even care to vote in November. Enough for DeSantis to lose hopefully.
Click to expand...

I really doubt DeSantis looses. Though he's too short and unlikable to become president so he'll have to be satisfied with torturing his voters for the next decade or so.

There will be no homeowners insurance in FL in a few years and his margin will probably go up lol.
 
fskimospy said:
If I’m reading that right, up to 20% higher excess mortality? That’s crazy and would imply a LOT of the covid deaths in 2021 and 2022 were republicans. Considering how close some races were in 2020 this really could make a difference.
Click to expand...
For statewide races in those states - possibly.
However it looked like the greatest effects were in the most partisan counties if I read it correctly so local elections and HOR elections might not be affected as much.
 
Paratus said:
For statewide races in those states - possibly.
However it looked like the greatest effects were in the most partisan counties if I read it correctly so local elections and HOR elections might not be affected as much.
Click to expand...
I would think of it the other way around. It’s not uncommon for ultra partisan counties to be part of a house district that’s overall competitive. Statewide effects are probably too small to change all but the closest elections.
 
fskimospy said:
I would think of it the other way around. It’s not uncommon for ultra partisan counties to be part of a house district that’s overall competitive. Statewide effects are probably too small to change all but the closest elections.
Click to expand...
Good point. I hope someone does an analysis of the effects this has on the 2022 election.
 
fskimospy said:
I would be very interested, although theoretically the effects would be captured in current polling.
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Would it? I guess as long as they're controlling for demographics correctly maybe, but i would think that would be swayed by those same death rates...confounded by the fact that census data in 2020 was generated largely before most deaths occured.
 
www.cnn.com

Election denier Kari Lake has a real shot of winning a swing state governorship | CNN Politics

One of the big questions heading into the 2022 cycle had been how Republican candidates would or not reflect the GOP base when it came to views of the 2020 election. Poll after poll has shown that a clear majority of Republicans falsely believe that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win...
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Most election deniers running for governor have only a small chance of winning or are from states former President Donald Trump easily won.

There is one big exception: GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake of Arizona. In the second-closest state of the 2020 presidential election, Lake is neck and neck with Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs.

So what is Lake’s secret? Part of it may be that her past as a television anchor is paying off. She seems to be doing a good enough job reaching voters in the middle of the electorate.

A further look at the numbers indicates that the GOP could easily win the secretary of state races in Arizona (Mark Finchem) and in next-door Nevada (Joe Marchant). The Republicans running for both those posts have denied the results of the 2020 election as they aim to become the chief election officers in their given states.

If she and Finchem win, the two officials in charge of election certification in Arizona will be on the record denying the reality of the 2020 election. 😱


Oh man.. It looks like AZ Secy of State is a lost cause.
The AZ gov race seems to be THE race to watch because of the election certification implications
 
JEDI said:
www.cnn.com

Election denier Kari Lake has a real shot of winning a swing state governorship | CNN Politics

One of the big questions heading into the 2022 cycle had been how Republican candidates would or not reflect the GOP base when it came to views of the 2020 election. Poll after poll has shown that a clear majority of Republicans falsely believe that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win...
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Most election deniers running for governor have only a small chance of winning or are from states former President Donald Trump easily won.

There is one big exception: GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake of Arizona. In the second-closest state of the 2020 presidential election, Lake is neck and neck with Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs.

So what is Lake’s secret? Part of it may be that her past as a television anchor is paying off. She seems to be doing a good enough job reaching voters in the middle of the electorate.

A further look at the numbers indicates that the GOP could easily win the secretary of state races in Arizona (Mark Finchem) and in next-door Nevada (Joe Marchant). The Republicans running for both those posts have denied the results of the 2020 election as they aim to become the chief election officers in their given states.

If she and Finchem win, the two officials in charge of election certification in Arizona will be on the record denying the reality of the 2020 election. 😱


Oh man.. It looks like AZ Secy of State is a lost cause.
The AZ gov race seems to be THE race to watch because of the election certification implications
Click to expand...

AZ is a fucking loony bin. It's like they took FL man, dumped him in the desert, mixed in a little militia and some border/illegals insanity, and let the heat bake in even more crazy.

I actually expect her to win.
 
fskimospy said:
I would think of it the other way around. It’s not uncommon for ultra partisan counties to be part of a house district that’s overall competitive. Statewide effects are probably too small to change all but the closest elections.
Click to expand...

well, now we will get to wonder how many dead people vote in FL, at the request of DeSantis and SoS, of course.

The argument will be: "It's not fair that they died to own the libs! Therefore, they must be allowed to vote within the same year(s)!" 99% of republicans will accept the logic.
 
299 election deniers are on ballots in November.
www.thedailybeast.com

Most Republican Nominees—299 Total—Deny 2020 Election Result

Election deniers are on the ballot in 48 states, and the majority of them are expected to win their races.
www.thedailybeast.com www.thedailybeast.com

Democracy was a nice experiment. Some days I just wonder if mankind vaporizing itself via MAD over Ukraine is what we really deserve. We just can't have nice things.
 
I’ll make my prediction now, Republicans take House by five...Senate 52-48, who controls/wins the Senate is up in the air but I’m leaning/ hoping it’s the Dems.
Let’s see how I do.
 
I like this comment to the linked NYT article:


Marc
Colorado19m ago
The horserace coverage has to stop. I myself will not look or click at any polls this time around. It's mentally taxing and we already know that it's prone to ascertainment bias. I'm already voting blue all the way down the ballot, what else does this fearmongering/stress-inducing coverage want from us? Encourage everyone to vote their conscience, and wish for the best!
 
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