Roger Wilco
Diamond Member
- Mar 20, 2017
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Unfortunately, it's a much closer race in GA with Walker.It's amazing just how bad of a candidate Oz is ... if it weren't for Walker in GA, he'd probably be the worst major race candidate I've ever seen. Just utterly clueless about even the most basic things.
Just shows the intelligence of the voter base in GeorgiaUnfortunately, it's a much closer race in GA with Walker.
and i have no idea why since Walker seems more clueless than Oz.
PA is a Dem +1 or +2 state and Georgia is a GOP +2 state.Unfortunately, it's a much closer race in GA with Walker.
and i have no idea why since Walker seems more clueless than Oz.
Ian will come into play also. With people displaced, voting going to be more difficult. Well assuming these families even care to vote in November. Enough for DeSantis to lose hopefully.
If I’m reading that right, up to 20% higher excess mortality? That’s crazy and would imply a LOT of the covid deaths in 2021 and 2022 were republicans. Considering how close some races were in 2020 this really could make a difference.Well here’s another reason Dems might outperform - by a little bit.
Dying to own the libs - literally.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30512/w30512.pdf
For statewide races in those states - possibly.If I’m reading that right, up to 20% higher excess mortality? That’s crazy and would imply a LOT of the covid deaths in 2021 and 2022 were republicans. Considering how close some races were in 2020 this really could make a difference.
I would think of it the other way around. It’s not uncommon for ultra partisan counties to be part of a house district that’s overall competitive. Statewide effects are probably too small to change all but the closest elections.For statewide races in those states - possibly.
However it looked like the greatest effects were in the most partisan counties if I read it correctly so local elections and HOR elections might not be affected as much.
Good point. I hope someone does an analysis of the effects this has on the 2022 election.I would think of it the other way around. It’s not uncommon for ultra partisan counties to be part of a house district that’s overall competitive. Statewide effects are probably too small to change all but the closest elections.
I would be very interested, although theoretically the effects would be captured in current polling.Good point. I hope someone does an analysis of the effects this has on the 2022 election.
Would it? I guess as long as they're controlling for demographics correctly maybe, but i would think that would be swayed by those same death rates...confounded by the fact that census data in 2020 was generated largely before most deaths occured.I would be very interested, although theoretically the effects would be captured in current polling.
Election denier Kari Lake has a real shot of winning a swing state governorship | CNN Politics
One of the big questions heading into the 2022 cycle had been how Republican candidates would or not reflect the GOP base when it came to views of the 2020 election. Poll after poll has shown that a clear majority of Republicans falsely believe that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win...www.cnn.com
Most election deniers running for governor have only a small chance of winning or are from states former President Donald Trump easily won.
There is one big exception: GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake of Arizona. In the second-closest state of the 2020 presidential election, Lake is neck and neck with Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs.
So what is Lake’s secret? Part of it may be that her past as a television anchor is paying off. She seems to be doing a good enough job reaching voters in the middle of the electorate.
A further look at the numbers indicates that the GOP could easily win the secretary of state races in Arizona (Mark Finchem) and in next-door Nevada (Joe Marchant). The Republicans running for both those posts have denied the results of the 2020 election as they aim to become the chief election officers in their given states.
If she and Finchem win, the two officials in charge of election certification in Arizona will be on the record denying the reality of the 2020 election.
Oh man.. It looks like AZ Secy of State is a lost cause.
The AZ gov race seems to be THE race to watch because of the election certification implications
I would think of it the other way around. It’s not uncommon for ultra partisan counties to be part of a house district that’s overall competitive. Statewide effects are probably too small to change all but the closest elections.
I’ll make my prediction now, Republicans take House by five...Senate 52-48, who controls/wins the Senate is up in the air but I’m leaning/ hoping it’s the Dems.
Let’s see how I do.