Is Vega going to be DOA!?

[unseenmorbidity]

By the time Vega drops, AMD will have been a full year late to the party! Nvidia has had complete dominance of the highend market, and it shows. They are now releasing their 4th, FOURTH, flagship this generation. They are milking the nvidia fanboys for all they are worth, and then some.

What's more nvidia recently dropped prices and released the 1080ti in conjunction with Ryzen's release, thus nearly completely drying up the highend GPU market before Vega releases. They even stole a good chunk of AMD fanboys that built new systems for Ryzen.

Nvidia held onto the 1080ti and the real Titan, because they didn't need to release them. They could make more money, and kill vega by sitting on them. Nvidia knew EXACTLY what it was doing, and it executed it perfectly.

Vega is going to release, and almost no one is going to care, because they already have a GPU. The market is all but totally dried up. The only people holding out are a few amd fanboys, such as myself.

If I am right, then Vega is dead on arrival! The sales will be atrocious! The WII U will look like a huge success by comparison!

Here is the kicker... The performance doesn't even matter! The market is dried up! The ONLY market left is the people that just happen to be building new systems over the next 6 months. Then Nvidia releases another generation, and the cycle continues. What's more, AMD's had better products in the past, and they still struggled to hold onto market share. And let's be real, it's not going to beat the TitanXPpppp anyways.

As far as the cost goes, well I think we all know it's going to be priced quite high given the time to develop, and the cost of HBM2, so it won't even have a strong perf/$ ratio going for it.

AMD DESPERATELY needs a game changer, and Idk what that could be. The only thing I can think of is dual GPUs, but the support just isn't there yet. If they try to adopt this too early, as they almost always tend to do, then they will just crash and burn, AGAIN.

I would love to be wrong, but I just don't see it.

 

[Bacon1]

Vega is going to release, and almost no one is going to care, because they already have a GPU. The market is all but totally dried up. The only people holding out are a few amd fanboys, such as myself.

Honestly I can bet that even those who are upgrading from a 1080 -> 1080 Ti -> Titan Xp would never buy Vega even if it was 10% faster than the Titan Xp and cheaper. They would say "I'm waiting for Volta!". Even if they were planning on buying the Titan Xp for more money.

They only want AMD around to lower prices, not actually purchase their hardware. They claim there is no monopoly while at the same time saying that AMD can't compete and there is no other option. You can't win or attempt to change their mind. They are buying based on appearances and marketing, nothing more.

I'm glad that AMD is working with companies like LiquidSky to do their datacenters, because the high end discrete GPU business is fanboy over logic and they've lost the war

 

[sandorski]

We shall see, but I suspect not.

 

[crisium]

It's all about price-to-performance. There's room to nudge cards between 1080Ti/1080, 1080/1070, and even 1070/1060. If AMD can offer performance closer to the left card, but price closer to the right card (Eg.90% 1080 for $400), then they can move cards.

If they do what they did with Fury cards though, then they are in trouble.

 

[Qwertilot]

Your worries are inevitably going to be at least partially true I fear.

If its better than expected - matching the 1080ti say - then they've still conceded huge chunks of the market by being so late. If its merely 'decent' (somewhere between the 1080/ti) then they've probably got some problems. Especially since NV will be iterating round to Volta rather sooner than AMD would like, and that'll stretch things further.

From AMD's point of view they mostly have to hope to get their R&D money back, stay in the market at some level and hopefully Zen will pick their overall cash flow up significantly leaving them much better placed to compete in a few years time.

 

[Shmee]

Moved to general video b/c of all the Nvidia talk.

 

[amenx]

AMD know what to do when/if they have a 'failed' product. Lower the price to the bone and see it be called a 'win'.

 

[guachi]

There are always people buying video cards. The idea of the market being "dried up" is silly.

If Vega is good, it will sell.

If it isn't good, it won't sell.

The longer the delay, the better it will have to be or the lower the price it will have to have.

 

[cytg111]

DOA.. its april allready, lets just settle for the A .. shouldnt there be a ton of leaks allready?

 

[RoarTiger]

!

 

[Carfax83]

Vega needs to at least match the GTX 1080 Ti to be considered a success. Matching or even slightly beating the GTX 1080 would be a failure for a GPU with over four thousand shaders and HBM2.

 

[amenx]

Forget vega vs pascal, what will AMD do they do when volta is released a few months later (late 2017?).

 

[Head1985]

DOA.. its april allready, lets just settle for the A .. shouldnt there be a ton of leaks allready?

vega i still few months away.Expect vega at computex 2017 in may 30- june3

 

[Carfax83]

Forget vega vs pascal, what will AMD do they do when volta is released a few months later (late 2017?).

HPC Volta might launch this year, but consumer Volta? No way. I wouldn't expect consumer Volta till Q1 or Q2 next year.

 

[Trumpstyle]

Haft to agree with the OP. Everything we seen from Vega points towards a loss. The gpu seems to have a die size of 450-500 mm2 and performance close to geforce 1080(Information we gotten from AMD). With hbm2 this gpu most be more expensive to produce than gp102 while being slower ):

 

[Krteq]

I don't think so

 

[mohit9206]

Vega will be fine but obviously not as big a success as Polaris.

 

[OatisCampbell]

By the time Vega drops, AMD will have been a full year late to the party! Nvidia has had complete dominance of the highend market, and it shows. They are now releasing their 4th, FOURTH, flagship this generation. They are milking the nvidiots for all they are worth, and then some.

What's more nvidia recently dropped prices and released the 1080ti in conjunction with Ryzen's release, thus nearly completely drying up the highend GPU market before Vega releases. They even stole a good chunk of AMD fanboys that built new systems for Ryzen.

Nvidia held onto the 1080ti and the real Titan, because they didn't need to release them. They could make more money, and kill vega by sitting on them. Nvidia knew EXACTLY what it was doing, and it executed it perfectly.

Vega is going to release, and almost no one is going to care, because they already have a GPU. The market is all but totally dried up. The only people holding out are a few amd fanboys, such as myself.

If I am right, then Vega is dead on arrival! The sales will be atrocious! The WII U will look like a huge success by comparison!

Here is the kicker... The performance doesn't even matter! The market is dried up! The ONLY market left is the people that just happen to be building new systems over the next 6 months. Then Nvidia releases another generation, and the cycle continues. What's more, AMD's had better products in the past, and they still struggled to hold onto market share. And let's be real, it's not going to beat the TitanXPpppp anyways.

As far as the cost goes, well I think we all know it's going to be priced quite high given the time to develop, and the cost of HBM2, so it won't even have a strong perf/$ ratio going for it.

AMD DESPERATELY needs a game changer, and Idk what that could be. The only thing I can think of is dual GPUs, but the support just isn't there yet. If they try to adopt this too early, as they almost always tend to do, then they will just crash and burn, AGAIN.

I would love to be wrong, but I just don't see it.

Why did NVIDIA release 4 top tier products over the last year and maximize their profit, consumer loss? Because they could.

Why didn't AMD? Because they could not.

Companies only answer to stock holders (the owners of the company) and all decisions are made to get our cash.

Doesn't mean AMD is doomxorz though.

It they release 1080 performance + 10% for $400-$450 I could see that selling a lot of cards. Freesync is a big factor these days, much cheaper than vsync. They have their fans that just prefer AMD who might even sell their NVIDIA cards.

Double cards aren't the answer in 2017, the only way I see this as even likely is if AMD wants a halo product that beats Titan Xp at DX11. (which dual 1080 performance should) priced at $850 or so that would be a compelling part- leading single slot DX11, and AMDs strong DX12 for the non CF games.

That could work, especially for that price. If they try to do the $1000 price point they'll fail due to not having the brand power of NVIDIA and the shift to devs for multi GPU.

You are obviously correct that NVIDIA sold a ton of Pascal but enthusiasts like to buy a card every year. Last year's 1070/1080 buyer is this year's potential Vega customer, even at similar performance if the price is right. NVIDIA cards command premium on re-sale as well, lateral moves for little money very possible. (especially with Freesync in play)

 

[Mopetar]

I think there's a chance they can beat the 1080 Ti (at least in DX12) but the issue is that they have a massive ~520 mm^2 die and to only beat GP102 by a small amount makes it trivial for Nvidia to release an even larger die if big Volta won't be out soon enough.

AMD can always set price relative to performance, but if this can't at least hang with a 1080 Ti, AMD probably won't make much money. We have information that can suggest that Vega will be at that level, but a lack of leaks of performance results just means you can read into it whatever you want.

I think the one benchmark that AMD did show puts it above the 1080, but they said it was running on old, completely unoptimized drivers. Maybe that's what's needed to unlock the special sauce, but it's not comfort inducing either.

One question that sticks out in my mind is when Vega actually ships. If it were in a month as some thought based on promotional material tied to a game release, we should be seeing more leaks by now. Even with Polaris we had more official information by this point. But again, you can read whatever you want into that.

 

[IEC]

Still waiting to Crossfire Vega... AMD better deliver or those might be Titan Xppppppppps 1080 Ti instead.

 

[Malogeek]

By the time Vega is released, Nvidia will have caused global bankruptcy of all enthusiasts by releasing the Titan Xp², Titan Xp Black Edition, Titan Xm Throwback Edition, and Titan X Prometheus. Then once Vega is released, Nvidia will release the Titan X (based on Volta but no one will know the difference because... Titan X)

 

[Flash831]

As oatiscampbel pointed out, AMD only answers to their shareholders.

AMD had been a golden investment during the last year, and as a shareholder I dont care if they take the performance crown. What is important is that they make a product which improves revenue and profit.

From their current offering (Rx 4-series + Fury) that should not be to difficult.

 

[CatMerc]

While technologically speaking, if it doesn't take the performance crown this is a serious issue, there is no such thing as the market being dry.

If Vega offers more performance at previous price points, then it will sell. It's simple as that. The only problem is if they offer the same performance for the same price.

 

[tential]

Seems no one is talking about Freesync/Gsync.

With Freesync and Gsync monitors out now, some of us are vendor locked. Whether you like it or not, Freesync is a VENDOR LOCK. End of STORY. So I have a Freesync monitor, and hte only high end GPU I can get is Vega. So I'm getting Vega. There are a lot of markets for Vega. Not DOA at all.

 

[t0mt0m]

Is the tech behind Vega primarily for the gaming market? Wasn't Ryzen similar in a compromise of what they want to do with the CPU in the enterprise?