Is Vega going to be DOA!?

[IEC]

1080 Ti / Titan Xp (2017) is 471mm^2. Even in the off-chance that Vega ends up beating 1080 Ti outright I would expect nVidia to release yet another Titan card that takes back the performance crown, if the Titan Xp (2017) isn't already ahead. Most of the consumers purchasing those wouldn't flinch at the upgrade cost.

AMD has improved its market share and mind share with gamers with the RX470 and RX480, especially with the insanely good and frequent deals on the cards ($110AR and $140AR in the USA respectively). The problem holding them back from capturing high end sales is they don't have a high end card. Vega would fix that problem, and I'd expect it to at least offer a better value proposition for the high end.

If we're lucky, it would actually be competitive with 1080 Ti.

 

[CatMerc]

Do you have a source for that?

I wasn't aware anything official had been said about the size.

There wasn't. Some random forum poster said it was said, but it was never corroborated by anyone else who was in the event.

If it IS under 500mm^2, then it's something like 498mm^2. There is some uncertainty when measuring die size from pictures, but that is way way below the average that people got.

1080 Ti / Titan Xp (2017) is 471mm^2. Even in the off-chance that Vega ends up beating 1080 Ti outright I would expect nVidia to release yet another Titan card that takes back the performance crown, if the Titan Xp (2017) isn't already ahead. Most of the consumers purchasing those wouldn't flinch at the upgrade cost.

AMD has improved its market share and mind share with gamers with the RX470 and RX480, especially with the insanely good and frequent deals on the cards ($110AR and $140AR in the USA respectively). The problem holding them back from capturing high end sales is they don't have a high end card. Vega would fix that problem, and I'd expect it to at least offer a better value proposition for the high end.

If we're lucky, it would actually be competitive with 1080 Ti.

And if they used HBM2, GP102 could effectively be a 430mm^2 die. So that's some more headroom there if NVIDIA needs it.

 

[unseenmorbidity]

There wasn't. Some random forum poster said it was said, but it was never corroborated by anyone else who was in the event.

If it IS under 500mm^2, then it's something like 498mm^2. There is some uncertainty when measuring die size from pictures, but that is way way below the average that people got.


And if they used HBM2, GP102 could effectively be a 430mm^2 die. So that's some more headroom there if NVIDIA needs it.

Personally, I hope they go all out, so they at least have a chance to take the performance crown. I don't think it's likely, but we can hope. It would be a pretty big deal, if they could do it.

 

[moonbogg]

I don't think it will be DOA no matter what. If people bought the FuryX, they will buy this.
I also think if VEGA turns out to be a real monster and compete or beat a full GP102, then I do think Nvidia will do something to retake the crown. That would look really terrible for Nvidia though if they just got done milking their customers for the fourth time at $7-1200 and Vega beats all those cards for $5-600. I can't see that happening. I honestly think Vega got borked. I think its likely to be underpowered, way too late and will just be another upper mid ranger like the 1080. It is likely to come in short on Vram again as well due to AMD's big hang up with early HBM adoption, unless they have 16gb of it. So not DOA but lackluster I think. A few short months after the big VEGA release, Volta will come tromping through.
Also, people talking about monitor sync tech being a vendor lock, its not true. Monitors cost about the same as a GPU, so what's stopping someone from replacing it? Nothing. The only reason I have been using Gsync for the past few years is because Nvidia has had the best cards for the past few years. If VEGA was faster than a 1080ti and came in at the same or less money, and they did that again next year, you don't think I'd ditch this monitor for a freesync equivalent? Well, there actually isn't a freesync equivalent, but if there was I'd certainly buy it. So there's that.

 

[crashtech]

I haven't kept up on the latest leaks about Vega, but if it comes in with similar SP performance as a 1080, it will be very interesting to me, since it's SP/DP ratio is twice that of the 1080. I use apps that need DP.

 

[Carfax83]

I am not a fanboy. I don't particularly like amd more than any other corporation. They are deceiving cons, just like all the others, but I try to support them anyway for the sake of market competition.

I don't like fanboys on either side of the aisle.

Directly from your OP in your own words:

The only people holding out are a few amd fanboys, such as myself.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I also think if VEGA turns out to be a real monster and compete or beat a full GP102, then I do think Nvidia will do something to retake the crown.

NVIDIA has no more bullets, full GP102 is as aggressive as they can get until Volta.

 

[DooKey]

Directly from your OP in your own words:

Yep, pretty much the pot calling the kettle black. Gotta love the AMD fanboys around this place.

 

[moonbogg]

NVIDIA has no more bullets, full GP102 is as aggressive as they can get until Volta.

Well if that's the case then its still no big deal. Volta isn't far off anyway and I honestly don't expect Vega to compete very well with Nvidia's current best. I can't wait to see though. When is Vega coming anyway? Its taking for absolute ever. Seriously, this thing is vaporware.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Well if that's the case then its still no big deal. Volta isn't far off anyway and I honestly don't expect Vega to compete very well with Nvidia's current best. I can't wait to see though. When is Vega coming anyway? Its taking for absolute ever. Seriously, this thing is vaporware.

Volta is probably Feb-April 2018, coincident with the launch of GDDR6.

 

[unseenmorbidity]

Well if that's the case then its still no big deal. Volta isn't far off anyway and I honestly don't expect Vega to compete very well with Nvidia's current best. I can't wait to see though. When is Vega coming anyway? Its taking for absolute ever. Seriously, this thing is vaporware.

June. Some think it will be sooner.

Yep, pretty much the pot calling the kettle black. Gotta love the AMD fanboys around this place.

Looks like projection to me.

I am waiting for vega, but I am not a fanboy. I try to support amd when possible to insure we still have some semblance of competition.

Any fool should be able to see what a market without amd looks like, because we have gotten a good glimpse of it over the years.

$1800 cpus & $1200 gpus, with 4 flagship gpus in one generation.

 

[Carfax83]

I am waiting for vega, but I am not a fanboy. I try to support amd when possible to insure we still have some semblance of competition.

Any fool should be able to see what a market without amd looks like, because we have gotten a good glimpse of it over the years.

$1800 cpus & $1200 gpus, with 4 flagship gpus in one generation.

So on one hand, you claim you're not a fanboy and you refer to AMD and NVidia as "deceiving cons," but here you are stating that you're supporting AMD financially whether they deserve it or not just to maintain balance?

Looks like you've been deceived!

If AMD wants my money, they better work for it because I'm not just going to hand it over to them without justification. And yeah, I know you're going to say, "but you do it for NVidia!"

Well NVidia has a history of great products, excellent support and ecosystem, and near flawless execution. That's why I go with NVidia practically every time. So if AMD wants my money, they need to step it up a notch....or three.

 

[coercitiv]

Well NVidia has a history of great products, excellent support and ecosystem, and near flawless execution.

Everything in your post made complete sense until you dropped that bomb. Near flawless execution?! Bumpgate alone should help you refrain from such marketing inspired remarks.

Nvidia is clearly in a better place than AMD in terms of consistency and execution, but let's not build shrines of perfection, there is no GPU god to bow to.

 

[Malogeek]

Everything in your post made complete sense until you dropped that bomb. Near flawless execution?! Bumpgate alone should help you refrain from such marketing inspired remarks.

Nvidia is clearly in a better place than AMD in terms of consistency and execution, but let's not build shrines of perfection, there is no GPU god to bow to.

Well he did say near things like the 970 don't exactly inspire consumer confidence either.

 

[OatisCampbell]

NVIDIA has no more bullets, full GP102 is as aggressive as they can get until Volta.

They might have one more. Wouldn't be difficult to SLi on a Stick the new 1080 which would beat the new Titan at any game that supports SLi.

 

[bigboxes]

So on one hand, you claim you're not a fanboy and you refer to AMD and NVidia as "deceiving cons," but here you are stating that you're supporting AMD financially whether they deserve it or not just to maintain balance?

Looks like you've been deceived!

If AMD wants my money, they better work for it because I'm not just going to hand it over to them without justification. And yeah, I know you're going to say, "but you do it for NVidia!"

Well NVidia has a history of great products, excellent support and ecosystem, and near flawless execution. That's why I go with NVidia practically every time. So if AMD wants my money, they need to step it up a notch....or three.

Guess you forgot about their "execution" that almost killed the company.

 

[OatisCampbell]

Well he did say near things like the 970 don't exactly inspire consumer confidence either.

The 970 didn't appear to exactly end consumer confidence either. The 970 still sits atop the STEAM survey for most cards sold, and last I saw NV had a huge market share lead.

In the days of virtual monopoly people buy what's for sale and things like "That 500MB of RAM ran slower!" are soon forgotten.

 

[bigboxes]

The 970 didn't appear to exactly end consumer confidence either. The 970 still sits atop the STEAM survey for most cards sold, and last I saw NV had a huge market share lead.

In the days of virtual monopoly people buy what's for sale and things like "That 500MB of RAM ran slower!" are soon forgotten.

I haven't forgotten.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The 970 didn't appear to exactly end consumer confidence either. The 970 still sits atop the STEAM survey for most cards sold, and last I saw NV had a huge market share lead.

In the days of virtual monopoly people buy what's for sale and things like "That 500MB of RAM ran slower!" are soon forgotten.

I didn't forget, and was succinctly reminded as soon as I hit that barrier in late 2016 when games started fluttering with it. (Un)fortunately I'm vendor locked to NV via GSync so my choice was obvious, but I would have liked there to be an option.

 

[raghu78]

So on one hand, you claim you're not a fanboy and you refer to AMD and NVidia as "deceiving cons," but here you are stating that you're supporting AMD financially whether they deserve it or not just to maintain balance?

Looks like you've been deceived!

If AMD wants my money, they better work for it because I'm not just going to hand it over to them without justification. And yeah, I know you're going to say, "but you do it for NVidia!"

Well NVidia has a history of great products, excellent support and ecosystem, and near flawless execution. That's why I go with NVidia practically every time. So if AMD wants my money, they need to step it up a notch....or three.

Could you list any AMD flagship GPU you have purchased ever ? I don't know how old you are but let me know if you bought any of these - Radeon 9700 Pro , Radeon HD 4870, Radeon HD 5870, Radeon R9 290X. If you have bought one of these I can believe you are neutral otherwise I have to say you are on the green camp.

 

[Malogeek]

The 970 didn't appear to exactly end consumer confidence either. The 970 still sits atop the STEAM survey for most cards sold, and last I saw NV had a huge market share lead.

In the days of virtual monopoly people buy what's for sale and things like "That 500MB of RAM ran slower!" are soon forgotten.

I completely agree and I own a 970, think it's a fantastic card and didn't even bother getting my $30 from the lawsuit. Was just pointing it out, but I don't forget that small deceit.

I've always been curious what the sales graphs were like post-discovery of the 500Mb issue. Probably a reverse-bell curve as it was soon forgotten and sales returned to normal.

 

[ozzy702]

Guess you forgot about their "execution" that almost killed the company.

LMAO, that was almost 15 years ago.

I want to see AMD succeed and have owned far more AMD cards than NVIDIA cards over the years. That being said, AMD hasn't been where I needed them to be since the 7970 so I've been on team green since then. Now that I have a gsync 1440p monitor I'll be locked into NVIDIA until I upgrade to 4k and I'm ok with that.

My armchair quarterbacking is that AMD is always looking to go bleeding edge and that can sometimes hurt them. In the case of HBM, it's really cost AMD a lot and we have yet to see if the investment will pay off, especially with GDDR6 coming down the pipe.

 

[ddogg]

Could you list any AMD flagship GPU you have purchased ever ? I don't know how old you are but let me know if you bought any of these - Radeon 9700 Pro , Radeon HD 4870, Radeon HD 5870, Radeon R9 290X. If you have bought one of these I can believe you are neutral otherwise I have to say you are on the green camp.

Even the X800, X1800 were better than their Nvidia counterparts especially in image quality and when you turned on AA at higher resolutions. I clearly remember the 6800 U using a dual slot cooler and requiring a 480W PSU, while the X800XT PE could achieve better performance using a single slot and lower power requirements. The 8800 series was the turning point for Nvidia when they clearly had a superior card.

I seriously hope Vega is good as it will inject some new life into the high-end market. It will be embarrassing if all they can do is match the 1080s performance while using HBM2 and being on a smaller node.

 

[iBoMbY]

RX Vega will be better than the 1080 Ti. Volta is a 2018 product, and will probably bring no big innovations (they may use TSMC's new 12nm FinFET rebrand of 16nm FinFET). IMHO NVidia is making the same mistake Intel made.

 

[sm625]

I don't think it will be DOA no matter what. If people bought the FuryX, they will buy this.

I guess it depends on your definition of DOA. To me, Fury was DOA. It couldnt even beat a stock 980ti at perf/dollar. If an AMD card doesnt win on perf/$, then it is clearly DOA since they dont have the brand power. The Nano technically wasnt DOA since it filled a niche but AMD isnt going to stay afloat by serving niche markets. They need a 1080ti killer for under $600, and more importantly, a 1070 killer for $300.