Question Is "the writing on the wall" - the end for enthusiasts? [LTT]

[VirtualLarry]

Discussing if Apple's M1 silicon is the future of computing, and discrete CPU and GPU days are numbered.

Maybe this should go in the Apple M series silicon thread, sorry.

 

[Glo.]

That's the keyword. Something that Applers refuse to acknowledge. PC users have more freedom. We can switch between AMD/Intel/Nvidia as our heart desires.

IMO, you'll still will be able to.

You'll have to pay for that priviledge, tho, with the shrinking volume of DIY desktop.

IMO, entry level to mainstream/midrange will be NUC/SFF with external expansion. Perfectly viable for 90% of users.

 

[Tech Junky]

NUC/SFF with external expansion.

Been there, done that, didn't work as well as a full system. I ended up collapsing several devices into a single case instead and boosting the horsepower of all systems involved.

Now, when urging people to dump their black box router and make their own I usually start off with recommending SFF/NUC options because of the mental price point being the same as the cheap insufficient router. It's easy to expand beyond a SFF case to a more adaptable case if you want to add additional functions. It's kind of like recommending a PI for certain things as well.

 

[stuff_me_good]

I've seen this discussion so many times before over the decades, but none of it has ever come to fruition.

 

[Ranulf]

IMO, entry level to mainstream/midrange will be NUC/SFF with external expansion. Perfectly viable for 90% of users.

Its so clean and easy to use! 42 external devices and it just works! The benefits of a Trash Can Pro Studio!

 

[Doug S]

The cheap & integrated mini-Mac and mini-PC have existed for many years now, with all the performance needed for office and media consumption. Mainstream Joe is already rocking an AIO, SFF system, hybrid laptop or mobile.

The part that's left is productivity and gaming, and here's the one aspect the video avoids talking about: the $4000 price tag on the Mac Studio with M1 Ultra, or $2000 for the M1 Max. Last year I spent no more than $1000 to upgrade my PC to 12700K & 64GB of RAM while choosing to keep the existing GPU / PSU / SSDs / cooling. Now imagine having to spend $2600 even if all I want is 64GB of RAM, or $4800 for 128GB. Because "fully integrated". And remember: the main reason enthusiast DIY is supposed to die out is higher cost over integrated solutions.

Enjoying the paradox already?

Macs aren't higher cost because they're integrated. Sure, upgrades "cost more" if everything is soldered down since you basically replace the whole thing - but why allow them at all? Fewer and fewer people ever upgrade their PC during its life, why waste money including CPU sockets, DIMM slots, PCIe slots etc. most of your customers will never use? Build a fixed config PC for the masses, then address the niche market of people who want to DIY or possibly upgrade later in life separately.

This is the same reason almost all phones no longer have removable batteries. People can blame Apple all they like, but they didn't force Samsung et al to follow. They followed for the same reason Apple went down that path, because the battery only needs to be replaced once every few years at most so making it a 10 second process at the cost of reduced design flexibility isn't worth it.

Yeah yeah some people with their phone welded to their ear all day long bitched because the battery didn't last the day, but that's not a problem now and that niche market was addressible with cases that had built in booster batteries. Or by buying one of the dwindling number of phones with a removable battery. Apple (and Samsung after they did the same) aren't required to service everyone's use case. Nor are PC OEMs - who might eventually make only fixed config PCs and DIY/upgradeable PCs will be something you'll have to seek out, not what you get when you order from Dell.

Why design PCs to be upgradeable when most people don't upgrade? Why design cars to make oil changes easy when few people change their own oil? People may not like these things, but this is the market speaking and telling companies where they should devote their engineering time. You may not like that a phone that takes special tools and instructions to open or car with lots of attention paid to optimal cupholder locations instead of the location of the oil filler tube is the result, but that's what most people want.

 

[Doug S]

Its so clean and easy to use! 42 external devices and it just works! The benefits of a Trash Can Pro Studio!

There is no PC that comes close to the amount of internal expansion required to handle all that. Just be glad there is enough external expansion to do so.

 

[VirtualLarry]

You may not like that a phone that takes special tools and instructions to open or car with lots of attention paid to optimal cupholder locations instead of the location of the oil filler tube is the result, but that's what most people want.

Of course, most people also qualify as "stupid", too. (*)

I want products intelligently designed, for an intelligent person to operate.

(*) I guess I should have said, "not technologically literate".

 

[Tech Junky]

Of course, most people also qualify as "stupid", too.

That's how we end up in discussions like this

Tons of thread battles based on ignorance of what tech does what and how to deploy it correctly.

Kind of like the PCIE 5 slot being touted as only for GPU use when the slot works on any device slotted into it. Wasting it on a x1 or low bandwidth need when you could use it for something more high priority doesn't occur to some people and then they whine about something being slow. Since I don't use dGPU's I would use them for data instead splitting the 2 slots x8/x8 with cards supporting bigger data throughput. Problem right now is last time I checked I couldn't find anything rated Gen5 on the market.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Hell even my debug station i use to test gpu's, has both nvidia and amd card sitting together, tangoing peacefully for now.

OC them both and see which one survives getting melted by the other running Furmark. Or even more fun, OC them, put them both on VR duty, one running a VR game and the other VRMark. Just ideas in case you get bored of them co-existing peacefully

 

[igor_kavinski]

Here's an idea I'm gonna get a lot of flak for: AIOs/hard to upgrade laptops/SFF PCs are meant for non-techies. Think parents/grandparents/wives/girlfriends/females who waste most of their budget on make-up and Gucci bags etc. These people DON'T want to know how a PC works. They just want to use it for simple stuff that the cheapest smartphones will do but they need a monitor/bigger display device and a keyboard/mouse etc. They will live their entire lives being not curious about expanding the capabilities of their PCs through different software and/or hardware peripherals. They don't explore. They will wake up each day, click the same icons, the same buttons, do the same things over and over and that's it. Problem is, companies are now collecting this usage data through telemetry and it is informing their decisions on dumbing down our beloved PC's hardware and software. It is inevitably going to make our hobby more expensive down the line. And God forbid if something happens to Taiwan.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

I want products intelligently designed, for an intelligent person to operate.

Never underestimate peoples creativity in operating stuff wrong* either. That never ceases to amaze me.

*Sometimes dangerously wrong too.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Never underestimate peoples creativity in operating stuff wrong* either. That never ceases to amaze me.

*Sometimes dangerously wrong too.

True story: a guy in my university class (Bachelors of Computer Science) declared that his CDROM drive damaged his computer. We asked him how. He said that he took out the PATA/power cables to connect a hard drive to his PC to transfer data. When he connected the Molex connector back to the CDROM drive, there was a spark and some burning smell and his PC died. So we asked him, was the computer on? He said yes

Disclaimer: I never graduated in CS. All the non-computing boring subjects killed my desire to waddle through the crap that is BS(CS).

 

[Doug S]

Here's an idea I'm gonna get a lot of flak for: AIOs/hard to upgrade laptops/SFF PCs are meant for non-techies. Think parents/grandparents/wives/girlfriends/females who waste most of their budget on make-up and Gucci bags etc.

Ah yes, the "I'm smarter than the idiots who buy that stuff, and other stuff I think is stupid like makeup and Gucci bags" answer. It would never occur to you that they think you are stupid for spending many hours playing video games and spending a thousand dollars a year or more on hardware upgrades to a PC to always have the fastest one.

Just because people like different things than you, and spend their money on different things, doesn't make you smarter. The fact you automatically think so makes that much less likely in my book.

I'm as techie as anyone here but I choose iPhone over Android, and I would have no problem buying a laptop with everything soldered down. I build my own PCs but because I want it completely silent, not because I want super fast performance. I used to love to tinker with that sort of thing, but having done it since I was a kid in the Atari 8 bit days I'm pretty much over it and just want my tech to work without having to think about it.

 

[Tech Junky]

I'm pretty much over it and just want my tech to work without having to think about it.

If only it were that easy,.

Even preconfigured options have bugs or issues. If you plan things out beforehand it does eliminate a lot of the issues people run into. Best case scenario you buy something, no issues, lasts 5 years and you do it again. A good indicator would be the warranty term. If it's 1 year or less there's a good chance it's a bad buy and will break quickly. If the similar item from a different brand has a 10 year warranty it means it will outlast the next couple of churn cycles.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Macs aren't higher cost because they're integrated. Sure, upgrades "cost more" if everything is soldered down since you basically replace the whole thing - but why allow them at all? Fewer and fewer people ever upgrade their PC during its life, why waste money including CPU sockets, DIMM slots, PCIe slots etc. most of your customers will never use? Build a fixed config PC for the masses, then address the niche market of people who want to DIY or possibly upgrade later in life separately.

The whole "DIY PC is dead" mantra has been said so many times I simply just tune it out.

Adding to what @coercitiv has said, base cost of materials doesn't necessarily correlate into pricing. What the market is willing to accept and what the seller decides it's worth is the real determining factor for how much it costs. Apple didn't take moving away from Intel as a way to lower prices, no they are making it to increase margins and revenue more.

Also the DIY market will always exist. Yes in relation to the whole market it's in decline, but I doubt the absolute number of real enthusiasts have changed. In the 80's you needed to study a lot and practically be a programmer to operate a computer. Pretty much everyone using one was a "techie" and maybe a million of them at most?

I also partly attribute my knowledge in computers because I started with Windows 95(little bit with 286 prior to that) and up until Windows 7 the OS and applications had enough stability issues and you had to be a techie to have your own computer. The move to the Windows NT-base starting with Vista was a big boon to the PC due to the vastly improved stability.

The number of really knowledgeable people probably haven't grown much since then. What has grown is the amount of people using it because it's now easier to use and accessibility has improved.

Integration and chiplet era just means we'll have more options, it doesn't mean one segment has to die.

What's "DIY PC" today?
-PCs in large USB stick form factor
-mITX versions which allow full customization, ranging from integrated CPUs the size of a paperback novel all the way to larger ones that allow high end dGPUs to be installed.
-Market around passive PCs. FanlessTech is an example of a really good site showing the countless varieties out there that goes large as a full ATX size!
-Bunch of Raspberry Pi-esque options ranging from Intel to AMD to various ARM options
-Those that make their own routers.
-Desktop computers in cases of thousands of different design options or even those that roll their own case(inside a Teddy Bear!).

LTT's latest video is just another example of the decline of quality of the press. Controversial topics bring more attention even when in most of the cases they have to heavily twist the facts to do so.

 

[VirtualLarry]

What's "DIY PC" today?
-PCs in large USB stick form factor
-mITX versions which allow full customization, ranging from integrated CPUs all the way to larger ones that allow high end dGPUs to be installed.
-Market around passive PCs. FanlessTech is an example of a really good site showing the countless varieties out there that goes large as a full ATX size!
-Bunch of Raspberry Pi-esque options ranging from Intel to AMD to various ARM options
-Those that make their own routers.
-Desktop computers in cases of thousands of different design options or even those that roll their own case(inside a Teddy Bear!).

Did you mention, specialized mining rigs, with multiple large GPUs?

 

[IntelUser2000]

Did you mention, specialized mining rigs, with multiple large GPUs?

Yes!

Look at the Right to Repair movement. They are the most technical of the DIY and customization crowd.

Also don't think of SFF just for the average folk. I want an mITX system using the latest E cores and a variant of the picoATX power supply to get the best of desktop while cutting power as low as it possibly can.

The Sandy Bridge 2600K setup I bought in 2011 still runs flawlessly and went through few revisions and usage scenarios. I was initially playing World of Warcraft with the integrated GPU and a mATX system. Then I moved the whole thing into a HTPC case. Now it acts as a test bed for GPU repair because the non-UEFI nature gives lot less headaches during troubleshooting. And I still use it occasionally as a regular desktop PC.

My Probook 450 G2 had a hinge issue and the XPS 12 I am using to post right now has a degraded screen(though not severe).

For some of us desktops are the go-to. You say it costs more than custom-built? Ok in the beginning when you have nothing. Tell us DIY costs more when the case, power supply, mouse, keyboard, monitor, SSD is used for 6+ years, some even a decade and all I have to switch out is the CPU, Mobo, RAM, and GPU. Some like the RAM only have to be upgraded every 3 years because DDR standard last a lot longer. Some don't even need the GPU.

 

[igor_kavinski]

"I'm smarter than the idiots who buy that stuff, and other stuff I think is stupid like makeup and Gucci bags"

I would be the last person to say I'm smarter than the people who have money to buy expensive stuff. They must be doing SOMETHING smarter than me to end up with more money than me

My argument was techies vs. non-techies. There might be Gucci-bag-loving female techies out there but I would be surprised if they are even 1% of all techies in existence. Point is, non-techies outnumber us and we are an endangered species. Non-techie PC usage preferences will hurt us sooner or later by forcing companies to prioritize them over us.

 

[VirtualLarry]

My argument was techies vs. non-techies. There might be Gucci-bag-loving female techies out there but I would be surprised if they are even 1% of all techies in existence. Point is, non-techies outnumber us and we are an endangered species. Non-techie PC usage preferences will hurt us sooner or later by forcing companies to prioritize them over us.

That may be true, but the rise of ARM in Cell Phones hasn't killed the DIY PC off, thankfully.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Point is, non-techies outnumber us and we are an endangered species. Non-techie PC usage preferences will hurt us sooner or later by forcing companies to prioritize them over us.

You should read my first post.

There were probably 1 million users in the late 80's that used computers but due to the difficulty of using one and the troubleshooting you had to do, 80% were techies.

I bet you the number of true techies are still in the 1-2 million range today. But there are several BILLION computer users of all kinds.

So if you started with 5 core members out of a total 20 and the total grew to a million but you still have 5 core members are the 5 members "endangered"? I certainly don't think so.

That may be true, but the rise of ARM in Cell Phones hasn't killed the DIY PC off, thankfully.

Look at the rage around Diablo Immortal at Blizzcon.

In Android the people who really pay to buy games is very very small. Only with iOS the numbers become significant. To compare such super casual gamers to much more dedicated PC gamers make no sense to me. Everyone one who's into PC gaming spends, cares far more and is equal to 3, 5, or even 10 of such so-called gamers in the mobile space.

You really aren't going to compare 16 year old girl candy crush players to PC gamers are you?

 

[igor_kavinski]

You really aren't going to compare 16 year old girl candy crush players to PC gamers are you?

I would love to know the number of girls with the latest iPhones (paid through installments!) doing exactly that

My gut says that there are more girls like that than there are PC gamers out there.

 

[IntelUser2000]

You do realize this is the main reason why Intel failed in the smartphone/tablet market, right? They were afraid if they created chips that were "too good" they'd get used in low end PCs, and since they had to sell them for $30 to compete with ARM SoCs that would have cut the legs out from their <$100 PC CPU market.

Which if you really think about it is a massive oversight on their part.

The iPhone 3GS BOM for the application processor was estimated at $14. The Galaxy Note 20 Ultra's Snapdragon 865+ has an estimated BOM of $57! The 5G modem alone is almost $100!

According to counterpoint research the cost increase of iPhone 12 over iPhone 11 just for the application processor is $17! They didn't say the processor cost $17, but the increase in cost over the predecessor was $17. Other sources estimate BOM for the processor on the iPhone 12 to be ~$40.

So back then when Intel wanted to enter the market they would have had to sell it for pretty low. But if they were in the market and in a leadership position they'd have sold tens of million processors at double that, and double that again if they had a good 4G/5G modem, which means their client revenue would have increased 50%+.

I would love to know the number of girls with the latest iPhones (paid through installments!) doing exactly that

My gut says that there are more girls like that than there are PC gamers out there.

Yes lot of older women too, all the way into their 50s. They aren't gaming revenue drivers at least if you think of them in a one to one comparison.

The PC gamer crowd isn't just buying games. Sure there was/is lot of pirating but the intense interest towards the games means often they have many dozens of them and lots of them from places like steam and that's revenue.

Mobile gaming, especially Android is mostly free and even charged ones are 99 cents.

PC gaming also fuels accessories like keyboard, mice, monitor. They wouldn't make those if the market is too small. I mean anything is small in relation to a Billion. Those accessories, and steam libraries with hundreds of gigabytes in games aren't cheap at all.

 

[Glo.]

I'm as techie as anyone here but I choose iPhone over Android, and I would have no problem buying a laptop with everything soldered down. I build my own PCs but because I want it completely silent, not because I want super fast performance. I used to love to tinker with that sort of thing, but having done it since I was a kid in the Atari 8 bit days I'm pretty much over it and just want my tech to work without having to think about it.

For the past 10 years I used an OEM computer, never had any fault with it.

I've built a new PC recently, and... I now am waiting for warranty replacement of my motherboard.

Thats also what we buy. Reliability of prebuilt, OEM computers.

 

[aigomorla]

Never underestimate peoples creativity in operating stuff wrong* either. That never ceases to amaze me.

*Sometimes dangerously wrong too.

Oh ive done that in my younger days... I thought "I R SMARTER DEN JOO".

I thought this was a good idea...


no one cared to tell me noise isolation also = thermal isolation especially when its shaped like that, as the air flow gets terribly jumbled....
And im a idiot for not realizing that.... you need air to transmit sound... and u block all air, yes you kill the sound, but also the cold air needed to keep things cool.... lol

There is a reason why we don't see cases with sound dampening material like that build in, and its usually flat dynomat...

 

[Tech Junky]

^^^ I'm just thinking fire hazard.