Is it possible to turn Iraq

[Aimster]

They have the oil. They have U.S investments. They have a strong education system that just needs to be reestablished. They are finally going to be a democratic government. Almost all of their debts have been forigven.

So why not?

 

[Tab]

Potentially they do, I just don't see it happening with current administration.

 

[DeeKnow]

Originally posted by: Aimster
They have the oil. They have U.S investments. They have a strong education system that just needs to be reestablished. They are finally going to be a democratic government. Almost all of their debts have been forigven.

So why not?

Because they've been blessed (cursed?) with the oil...
can you think of one country that lives off its oil wealth and has prospered into a progressive democracy?

Norway is the only example that comes to mind.... but they are likely the exception that proves the rule...

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: DeeKnow

Originally posted by: Aimster
They have the oil. They have U.S investments. They have a strong education system that just needs to be reestablished. They are finally going to be a democratic government. Almost all of their debts have been forigven.

So why not?

Because they've been blessed (cursed?) with the oil...
can you think of one country that lives off its oil wealth and has prospered into a progressive democracy?

Norway is the only example that comes to mind.... but they are likely the exception that proves the rule...

Who said oil has to be all their income? In most countries oil is only 10-20% of their GDP.

Iraqi people are smart and are very capable of building a strong and prosperous country. Bahdad has some great universities and the only reason they are not recognized as one of the world's greatest anymore is because of the 1991 war/sanctions on Iraq.

The only reason the M.E is doing the way it is doing is because none of the countries are free. Name me one country in the M.E other than Israel that actually has economic freedom? None. If those countries were free their economies would be much larger. You seem to forget before the first war, Iraq was a major M.E power.

Is your idea of the M.E one big pile of sand?

 

[Aimster]

Iraq is very well capable of becoming the greatest country in the M.E in 15-20 years. It can very well generate 500-800+ billion dollars a year. It doesn't have a large population, but it has a good future of solid growth.

When Saddam was in power and there were no sanctions, they were generating 350 billion a year (this would put them at the top 15 in the world during this time).

When the sanctions came Iraqi's economy collapsed by 2/3 and started declining every year.

GDP per capita was $3,800 and it went down to as low as $400 by some reports.

Imagine what a free Iraq could do.

They just need to pick up the pieces where they were before sanctions and move up again.

 

[magomago]

I think one of the big hurdles will be eduation. Prior to the gulf war, literacy was at 100% and eveyone attended school, and like you mentioned--the Iraqi workforce was educated. However the problem that we face is educating those who got screwed. Once sanctions hit and everyone got screwed over...if you are a kid in a family your parents need you to stop school and help the family out. So many kids didn't attend school...and this is why the literacy rate is only 60% now~ because a large number of Iraqi children CANNOT read or write! What I can say is IRaq DOES have the potential in the short run to make a faster than expected recovery if we choose to ignore all these bombings and the crap that goes on. But one of its big problems is bringing up the generation that missed out on education, a tought education that their parents and older siblings got, up to speed. Now I'mnot saying 100% of kids go through this (my cousins got lucky and a few are in pharmacy school right now, whereas their friends are all trying to find work to stilll support their family) but I wouldn't say that it'll just go away.

That and the people of Iraq still have to figure out what the hell they are voting for. My dad was talking to his family, and they were under the impression this entire time they were actually electing their government, NOT a body to write a constitution. If Iraq ever turns into a democracy...first of all the people have to realize exactly what they are voting for...

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Iraq is very well capable of becoming the greatest country in the M.E in 15-20 years. It can very well generate 500-800+ billion dollars a year. It doesn't have a large population, but it has a good future of solid growth.

When Saddam was in power and there were no sanctions, they were generating 350 billion a year (this would put them at the top 15 in the world during this time).

When the sanctions came Iraqi's economy collapsed by 2/3 and started declining every year.

GDP per capita was $3,800 and it went down to as low as $400 by some reports.

Imagine what a free Iraq could do.

They just need to pick up the pieces where they were before sanctions and move up again.

I don't think population is everything in that instance...Iraq's smaller population (25 million with ~5 million living in Baghdad) but at the same time it isn't like their country is the size of Iran or China or anything...just a fat California.

I think the problem with picking up the peices will depend on how the economy is rebuilt....the way things are going it doesn't look like Iraqis are going to have much say in their economy anyways and that it will be dominated by multinational companies

then agian, what first world countries economies aren't dominated by global companies?

One thing they have to do though...is make sure that oil doesn't comprise their entire damn economy. If they do, they'll be shot up no matter how many BPD they sell..I'm no economist so I don't know what they should aim for...but I would make it a priority to diversify the economy as much as possible and not turn into a Saudi Arabia when it comes to revenue based on oil.

 

[miketheidiot]

They have oil and oil is their primary and only source of wealth. They will countinue along their current path for the forseeable future.

 

[raildogg]

Originally posted by: Aimster
They have the oil. They have U.S investments. They have a strong education system that just needs to be reestablished. They are finally going to be a democratic government. Almost all of their debts have been forigven.

So why not?

They also have terrorists pouring in from Iran and Syria. Until the security is restored, Iraq cant even dream of being anywhere near good, not even going to mention great

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: raildogg

Originally posted by: Aimster
They have the oil. They have U.S investments. They have a strong education system that just needs to be reestablished. They are finally going to be a democratic government. Almost all of their debts have been forigven.

So why not?

They also have terrorists pouring in from Iran and Syria. Until the security is restored, Iraq cant even dream of being anywhere near good, not even going to mention great

Is there even proof of this or pure speculation? How does one know they are coming from Syria or Iran instead of Saudi Arabia? That is why I discredit these claims. Nobody says Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia is a friend of the U.S.

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
They have oil and oil is their primary and only source of wealth. They will countinue along their current path for the forseeable future.

Oil is not their only source of wealth

 

[magomago]

Well as of right now it is. As long as they choose to rely on oil they will be fvcked. Their oil can prove to be a very powerful asset to their economy, but if they rely on it for a majority of their GDP$$$ revenue or however the hell its suppsoed to be, their oil becomes a drug and the economy won't go anywhere if they continue to expect oil revenues to ameliorate the situation without slowly decreasing independence on oil revenue

And yes...raildogg is on the money when he states that the the security issue is extremely important. It doesn't matter where people are coming from, hell let them come from Bermuda! Unless the security issue is addressed then they'll never get a chance to go anywhere.

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: magomago
Well as of right now it is. As long as they choose to rely on oil they will be fvcked.

And yes...raildogg is on the money when he states that the the security issue is extremely important. It doesn't matter where people are coming from, hell let them come from Bermuda! Unless the security issue is addressed then they'll never get a chance to go anywhere.

How do we fix the security issue? Is it even fixable?

What happens when the U.S leaves? If the U.S leaves things will get out of hand. The U.S needs to stay there for a good 10 years and maybe make some bases there if they do decide to leave.

Is all Arabic the same? Can you tell if someone is foreign or not in Iraq by the way they speak Arabic?

 

[Aimster]

My solution is to lock the borders up. What business does any Iranian have going to and from Iraq? They don't even speak the same language. Send more troops there. *my only guess is the holly sites?*

Syria is home to all the Saddam loyalist. Crack down on their borders more.

Saudi Arabia needs to do more, but nobody is saying much to them. They have a one of the largest borders with Iraq, but I wonder if the Royal police do a good job of monitoring it. Hell I bet $5 will get you in.

What business does anyone have going to Iraq unless they are an Iraqi citizen or working with the forces there?

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: magomago
Well as of right now it is. As long as they choose to rely on oil they will be fvcked.

And yes...raildogg is on the money when he states that the the security issue is extremely important. It doesn't matter where people are coming from, hell let them come from Bermuda! Unless the security issue is addressed then they'll never get a chance to go anywhere.

How do we fix the security issue? Is it even fixable?

What happens when the U.S leaves? If the U.S leaves things will get out of hand. The U.S needs to stay there for a good 10 years and maybe make some bases there if they do decide to leave.

Is all Arabic the same? Can you tell if someone is foreign or not in Iraq by the way they speak Arabic?

Close down the border would be the easiest task...but that would require us to move our troops to the border The troops should not leave...Iraq is too weak and can be easily influenced to its neighbor countries advantage. The biggest way to fix the security issue is make the people beleive we are on THEIR side...the only reason these "insurgents" or wahtever they are get support is because the people are not convinced America is there to help them. If they truly beleived that I don't see why they would be supporting these "insurgents"

No arabic isn't the same...and its VERY easy to tell where they are from by the way they speak arabic. For example, all my arabic comes from my parents...so my arabic is very thick in the Iraqi accent. Back in the day when IRaqi TV existed before the war it was the only channel for arabic i'd watch because I could actually understand it...watching any other station would screw me over royally when it comes to comprehension. Same thing in speaking...when I speak with people withou the Iraqi accent i have to pay more attention to what they are saying because I'm not used to hearing other styles.
But aside from that, just living in the USA I can tell if someone is from Eygpt, or Lebanon, or Morocco, or the Gulf States due to the way they speak arabic and their accent. My parents due to being raised there can tell most countries, and even distinguish between the Gulf States themsleves (to me places like Bahrain and Qatar sound the same), Syria, Jordon, etc. etc..
That and the Iraqi brand of arabic is influencef by Farsi so there are sounds that normally don't exist in arabic. The "Geh" sound is often substitued for the "Q" sound and "ch" sound for the "Sh" sound ("geh" and "ch" do not exist in arabic); very similar to lets how eypgtoins substitue the french "j" sound for the arabic "j" sound....

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: Aimster
My solution is to lock the borders up. What business does any Iranian have going to and from Iraq? They don't even speak the same language. Send more troops there. *my only guess is the holly sites?*

Syria is home to all the Saddam loyalist. Crack down on their borders more.

Saudi Arabia needs to do more, but nobody is saying much to them. They have a one of the largest borders with Iraq, but I wonder if the Royal police do a good job of monitoring it. Hell I bet $5 will get you in.

What business does anyone have going to Iraq unless they are an Iraqi citizen or working with the forces there?

Sending more troops won't solve the problem. If it is more troops to guard the borders, then by all means do that. But if we think sending another 500k troops on the ground in Baghdad will ameliorate the situation...perhaps in the short term it might, but I think it would create more resentment in the long term....especially considering how nationalistic the ME has been in the past fifty years or so.

 

[Aimster]

people think the U.S can easily pack up and leave now.
They cannot.

Turkey to the north and Iran on the right. Both of these countries have issues with Iraq. Turkey could very well invade the north and Iran might just go in and take the entire thing over. Iran wants a Shia government exactly like theirs in Iraq. They will do whatever it takes to keep it that way. Afterall Iraq and Iran are the only two main countries with a large Shia populations (no?).

Iran is already facing a threat from their own people of losing their regime and a democratic free Iraq will only make this worse. If the U.S stays there is verry little Iran can do but send money to finance their goals.
Turkey has issues with the Kurds to the north, correct? Also if the U.S leaves, the north can turn into its own country for the Kurds seperate from Iraq (wasn't this talked about before the war?). Is Turkey going to sit and allow this to happen?

I don't know if Saudi Arabia has any plans, but I don't trust the Royal Family. Syria is the best place for any terrorist group that is on the CIA's terrorism list to have an office.

The United States cannot leave.

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: magomago

Originally posted by: Aimster
My solution is to lock the borders up. What business does any Iranian have going to and from Iraq? They don't even speak the same language. Send more troops there. *my only guess is the holly sites?*

Syria is home to all the Saddam loyalist. Crack down on their borders more.

Saudi Arabia needs to do more, but nobody is saying much to them. They have a one of the largest borders with Iraq, but I wonder if the Royal police do a good job of monitoring it. Hell I bet $5 will get you in.

What business does anyone have going to Iraq unless they are an Iraqi citizen or working with the forces there?

Sending more troops won't solve the problem. If it is more troops to guard the borders, then by all means do that. But if we think sending another 500k troops on the ground in Baghdad will ameliorate the situation...perhaps in the short term it might, but I think it would create more resentment in the long term....especially considering how nationalistic the ME has been in the past fifty years or so.

How does one get from one country to another? Doesn't someone from Iraq have to give them permission to enter the country?

Even if they don't get permission isn't most of the border area desert? They would need a car to get into the cities using roads, right? Checkpoints?
I'm just assuming it is desert because when U.S troops were entering Iraq they were surrounded by desert.

 

[Goosemaster]

It is simply a disaster. The nation is capable. But they will, as would any other Middle Eastern nation, not face utter embarrassment and humiliation by simply "following the US."

It is quite difficult to get a Middle Eastern Person to willingly disgrace themselves in front of others.

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: Goosemaster
It is simply a disaster. The nation is capable. But they will, as would any other Middle Eastern nation, not face utter embarrassment and humiliation by simply "following the US."

It is quite difficult to get a Middle Eastern Person to willingly disgrace themselves in front of others.

Or perhaps it is the fact that we should stop having the mentallity that countries should just "follow the US"?
And aside from that...i would think its difficult to get ANY person to willingly disgrace themself in front of others?!!?!?

people think the U.S can easily pack up and leave now.
They cannot.

I never said they should my friend. I already pointed that out. Iraq's neighbors are not friendly...a quick example with Turkey: before the Gulf War when Iraq had a formidable military it had water deals with Turkey that let the water flow through the Tigres and Euphrates so Iraq can use it. However after the gulf war, those deals were completely tossed aside by the Turkish government, the Tigre and Euphrates flow in Iraq are only a trickle as compared with before (Turkey diverts the water to the Antolia (sp?) plain for irrigation). That, and Turkey has transgressed on Iraq's territory many times by sending troops into Northern Iraq because of the Kurdish issue.
Iraq's neighbors are not to be trusted. That is simple enough. But to ensure the borders are monitered, the troops should be moved there. Out of the daily life of citizens, but still "protecting" the USA's interests or however else we try to fluff our dominating over another country.

 

[Engineer]

They can. They'll have a better chance if the US pulls out, or reduces it's forces, and QUITS sticking it's nose in to achieve results that it thinks are more fitting to it's own agenda. If not, the ME will continue to stream terrorists and insurgants to Iraq and keep it a hellhole for years to come.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Your are projecting onto the Iraqi people. This "greatest" thing is an American obsession. Most people are satisfied at with being left alone and having the ability to put food on the table, a roof over their head and clothes on their back. A great many people in the world cannot do that today. CAN Iraq be one of the "greatest"? Sure. I could be a multimillionaire, but that would involve sacrificing more important things than money. Maybe they aren't interested in US manifest destiny.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Aimster
So why not?

Because they are mired in Religious Fundamentalism.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Aimster
So why not?

Because they are mired in Religious Fundamentalism.

A bit of a red herring. Killing each other for religion doenst help at all, but there are secular countries who are hardly "the greatest". Religion plays no part in Venezuela oil and politics, yet the people are piss poor. Iraq could become peaceful, however that doesnt mean they will be better off than South America.

 

[Goosemaster]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Aimster
So why not?

Because they are mired in Religious Fundamentalism.

Iraq was quite a nationalist state under Saddam, comapred to lets say, Iran for example which was completrly theocratic.