Is it possible for Obama to use his powers for something useful and force a X86 license for Qualcomm?
Given the number of large and well established companies that do/did have an x86 license but they bowed out of trying to field products that compete with Intel...it would appear that the business considerations that would go into Qualcomm's decision to dive into x86 would extend beyond them merely having the option of acquiring an x86 license.
For academic argument sake, Let's consider a realistic timeline coupled with an overly optimistic licensing agreement. Intel open-sources 100% of their x86 related patents, free-for-all unrestricted licensing for everyone.
Now comes the realistic timeline, because you can shortchange that part of reality no matter how much money (realistically speaking) you throw at a project...any company that chooses to jump into x86 today (at no cost barrier or IP barrier thanks to our absurdly optimistic open-source scenario laid out above) is still looking at a minimum of 1 year, and more realistically a 2 year process of simply identifying, hiring, and bringing up to speed the design engineers necessary to launch an x86 SoC project.
And then you have a minimum 3 year (for a seasoned and well-entrenched x86 design team) but more realistically a 4-5 year design cycle for this green-team's first x86 design.
So now you have a timeline for Qualcomm that says best case rosy scenario is they are looking to field an x86 based SoC in 4yrs (110% of all stars aligned) or more realistic case being 6yrs.
What process node would they be targeting this for production in 4yrs or 6 yrs? Where will the competition, which won't be sitting still in terms of both design and process capability, be in 4yrs or 6yrs?
I was at Texas Instruments, working on our x86 processors, with all the wind blowing to our backs (we had successful 386 and 486 designs, and inhouse process node tech) to keep going in competing with Intel and the above timeline reality in terms of what it would take to create a Pentium-class CPU is what compelled management at TI to decide it would simply be a bad business decision to throw money into developing an x86 product that would compete with Intel, so we went into ARM projects instead.
Given that Qualcomm is a well run company, which suggests their decision makers are well versed in making astute business decisions, I don't foresee them
ever making the decision to throw billions of dollars and years of project development time into creating a me-too x86 competitor chip.
AMD has shown the world what that risk/reward profile looks like, and it doesn't speak to there being a whole lot of reward, just a whole lot of risk.
edit: just saw ShintaiDK posted up the same thing before I hit the submit button, so make my post a +1 to his
