- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
- 5
- 0
Israel knew what was happening in Syria - they were able to show the world the truth.
Israel has people on the ground that will have knowledge of where the Iran "secret" facilities are. The Mossad is good and will operate in areas to get the information that Israel needs.
The Iran 'secret' facilites are hidden from the Western intelligence assetts. We do not have people on the ground to identify where things are and the state of such. Counting on the IAEA to verify is like having the fox guard the hen house. The IAEA see what Iran wants them to see.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
There are a few fallacies in what Common Courtesy is saying with, "The Iran 'secret' facilites are hidden from the Western intelligence assetts. We do not have people on the ground to identify where things are and the state of such. Counting on the IAEA to verify is like having the fox guard the hen house. The IAEA see what Iran wants them to see."
The question is not where the Iranian facilities are, its a question of how deeply they are buried. We know where most of the facilities are, there is just nothing on the surface to see, and unless Moussad can get agents inside, there is nothing for them to see either. And the basic two main voices against IAEA has been the US and Israel, basically habitually over inflating the Iranian threat and crying wolf. And habitually demanding the IAEA see things that simply are not there
And unlike the on the surface Iraqi reactor Israel bombed a few decades ago or the Syrian alleged reactor Israel bombed just recently, surface bombing will do nothing to deeply buried Iranian facilities, conventional explosive powered bunker busters may not dent them, and surely even Israel is not crazy enough to use not just one but many nukes to take them out in an attempted preemptive strike that would be nothing short short of a major act of war. Especially if the IAEA is still allowing Iran to proceed with low grade nuclear reactor fuel enrichment.
And meanwhile, both Israel and the USA are almost the lone voices mostly crying wolf, making already debunked US and Israeli claims seem not credible. So even if Israel or the US uncovered real evidence now in the form of a Iranian whistleblower, after crying wolf so many times before, even the truth may not be believed.
At least IMHO, Iran is well on its way to having a large peacetime nuclear energy electrical capacity, and any nation that has those reactors, then has the option to go on and develop nuclear weapons by re processing spent fuel rods after they deplete two years later. With that go or no go for nuclear weapons next stage decision being quite a few years away for Iran. And it seems to me, that if we want Iran to make the go for nuclear weapons decision, our present Iranian foreign policy is designed to push Iran that way. And if we do not want Iran to later go for nuclear weapons, a wiser US policy that GWB could have had in 2002 is the better option.
Nor is Iran anything but the tip of a coming iceberg, as many other nations are now working with the IAEA to start their own nuclear programs, a RIGHT every nation has under the UN charter.
The question is not where the Iranian facilities are, its a question of how deeply they are buried. We know where most of the facilities are, there is just nothing on the surface to see, and unless Moussad can get agents inside, there is nothing for them to see either. And the basic two main voices against IAEA has been the US and Israel, basically habitually over inflating the Iranian threat and crying wolf. And habitually demanding the IAEA see things that simply are not there
And unlike the on the surface Iraqi reactor Israel bombed a few decades ago or the Syrian alleged reactor Israel bombed just recently, surface bombing will do nothing to deeply buried Iranian facilities, conventional explosive powered bunker busters may not dent them, and surely even Israel is not crazy enough to use not just one but many nukes to take them out in an attempted preemptive strike that would be nothing short short of a major act of war. Especially if the IAEA is still allowing Iran to proceed with low grade nuclear reactor fuel enrichment.
And meanwhile, both Israel and the USA are almost the lone voices mostly crying wolf, making already debunked US and Israeli claims seem not credible. So even if Israel or the US uncovered real evidence now in the form of a Iranian whistleblower, after crying wolf so many times before, even the truth may not be believed.
At least IMHO, Iran is well on its way to having a large peacetime nuclear energy electrical capacity, and any nation that has those reactors, then has the option to go on and develop nuclear weapons by re processing spent fuel rods after they deplete two years later. With that go or no go for nuclear weapons next stage decision being quite a few years away for Iran. And it seems to me, that if we want Iran to make the go for nuclear weapons decision, our present Iranian foreign policy is designed to push Iran that way. And if we do not want Iran to later go for nuclear weapons, a wiser US policy that GWB could have had in 2002 is the better option.
Nor is Iran anything but the tip of a coming iceberg, as many other nations are now working with the IAEA to start their own nuclear programs, a RIGHT every nation has under the UN charter.
Makes no sense to me why Iran would have an underground facility. They are allowed to enrich uranium and that is exactly what they are doing.
They have publicly said they are going to keep enriching and build more centrifuges. That is not a secret. Iran likes to brag about this process. The more they show the more they give the finger to the U.S which is what they have a hard-on for doing. Well they did with Bush, let's see if it is the same with Obama
They would have an underground facility if they were not allowed to enrich uranium.
They have publicly said they are going to keep enriching and build more centrifuges. That is not a secret. Iran likes to brag about this process. The more they show the more they give the finger to the U.S which is what they have a hard-on for doing. Well they did with Bush, let's see if it is the same with Obama
They would have an underground facility if they were not allowed to enrich uranium.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,774
- 46,587
- 136
Iran doesn't have a single operational commercial nuclear reactor. One of the Bushehr units is supposed to go online late this year after 30+ years of on and off construction. Fuel for this reactor will be provided by Russia and not Iran. No other reactors are on order at this time so you're talking another decade or two before another one comes online.
Yet they are constructing a robust and signifigant uranium enrichment infrastructure well before they have anywhere to use the fuel. It doesn't take a strategic genius to figure out where they are going with this.
Yet they are constructing a robust and signifigant uranium enrichment infrastructure well before they have anywhere to use the fuel. It doesn't take a strategic genius to figure out where they are going with this.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
If there is any nation on earth that has a RIGHT to be paranoid about US interests, its Iran. They simply learned their lessons from what happened to an Iraqi program stupid enough to build above ground.
Israel and the USA may have much more military power than Iran, But the US can only muster about 5% of the UN vote. And Israel plus Israel still can muster only 5% of the UN vote. Given their recent history,
Iran made the correct decision from their point of view.
As K1052 points out, Iran does not have a single operational commercial nuclear reactor yet, they are not even constructed yet, but if the US or Israel bombed a fully operational nuclear reactor, setting up a Chernoble situation for Iran, that would probably be regarded as an international war crime of the worst possible nature.
But K1052 also points out, any Iranian nuclear weapon is option may be at least a decade away for Iran.
Its remotely possible that Iran could put all its Uranium centrifuge capacity to producing one or maybe two U235 powered bombs and have one on line sooner, but then they could not produce much of the lower grade reactor ready fuel rods needed to produce large numbers of Plutonium type bombs later.
Israel and the USA may have much more military power than Iran, But the US can only muster about 5% of the UN vote. And Israel plus Israel still can muster only 5% of the UN vote. Given their recent history,
Iran made the correct decision from their point of view.
As K1052 points out, Iran does not have a single operational commercial nuclear reactor yet, they are not even constructed yet, but if the US or Israel bombed a fully operational nuclear reactor, setting up a Chernoble situation for Iran, that would probably be regarded as an international war crime of the worst possible nature.
But K1052 also points out, any Iranian nuclear weapon is option may be at least a decade away for Iran.
Its remotely possible that Iran could put all its Uranium centrifuge capacity to producing one or maybe two U235 powered bombs and have one on line sooner, but then they could not produce much of the lower grade reactor ready fuel rods needed to produce large numbers of Plutonium type bombs later.
- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
- 5
- 0
As stated, Iran does not have a commercial reactor; yet they are putting into play the capability for enrichment. One should wonder why.
Why do they need the enrichment if the material will not be needed for 10+ years.
The need to build below ground is because Iran learned from what happened with Iraq and threats.
US, Chinese, French, Russian and others do not have reactors built below ground.
The purpose is not for safety but to hide. The IAEA is not allowed to look in those areas.
Again, why?
Count on the Mossad to have people inside the facilities.
Israel will not need nukes. The facilities can be sealed off by forcing a collapse on itself and/or the exit portals - those will have been identified.
Iran will end up with a underground chamber that they can not easily get to.
Why do they need the enrichment if the material will not be needed for 10+ years.
The need to build below ground is because Iran learned from what happened with Iraq and threats.
US, Chinese, French, Russian and others do not have reactors built below ground.
The purpose is not for safety but to hide. The IAEA is not allowed to look in those areas.
Again, why?
Count on the Mossad to have people inside the facilities.
Israel will not need nukes. The facilities can be sealed off by forcing a collapse on itself and/or the exit portals - those will have been identified.
Iran will end up with a underground chamber that they can not easily get to.
This is a regime that has a ton of security and the Mossad is just going to walk in, get access to secret facilities and sabotage them?
How the hell does Iran have a nuclear reactor underground? Did Russia build it for them? China?
What a great series of 24 this would make.
How the hell does Iran have a nuclear reactor underground? Did Russia build it for them? China?
What a great series of 24 this would make.
- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
- 5
- 0
Mossad does not have the ability to effectively sabotage the facilities. They have the ability to gather intelligence on how they are built and determine the weakpoints.
Any facility has to have low level people to support it. That is the weak link - at the facility or places that were/are responsible for the design/construction of such.
I'm obviously talking about being underground as in secret and nobody knows about them.
If you know about them then they aren't secret
Everyone should probably have to take a position from these three:
1. I am for eliminating all nukes in the world, ours included.
2. I am for equality in nations' right to obtain nuclear weaponry, barring a strong case to be made why a nation should be denied - history of aggressive war, etc.
(The US would be barred under this standard IMO).
3. I am for a double standard - nukes for me and those I like but not for anyone who won't do as I say.
Nearly everyone falls into #3, but few are willing to admit it. They won't face the fact that they are in favor of a double standard, instead rationalizing it.
It's remarkable how injustices in one's favor can become invisible, just 'the way things are'.
No one would agree to switch places and let Iran have our nukes while we give them up. Yet we are fine with demanding they accept that, even with our history of supporting a war against them that caused a million casualties, our replacing their democracy with a fictator for decades, our constant threats to attack them, etc.
1. I am for eliminating all nukes in the world, ours included.
2. I am for equality in nations' right to obtain nuclear weaponry, barring a strong case to be made why a nation should be denied - history of aggressive war, etc.
(The US would be barred under this standard IMO).
3. I am for a double standard - nukes for me and those I like but not for anyone who won't do as I say.
Nearly everyone falls into #3, but few are willing to admit it. They won't face the fact that they are in favor of a double standard, instead rationalizing it.
It's remarkable how injustices in one's favor can become invisible, just 'the way things are'.
No one would agree to switch places and let Iran have our nukes while we give them up. Yet we are fine with demanding they accept that, even with our history of supporting a war against them that caused a million casualties, our replacing their democracy with a fictator for decades, our constant threats to attack them, etc.
You just said they are enrichment facilities. How would you know that? Are you some kind of spy in your imaginary world? If you know what is underground in those facilities then it is not a secret
Iran produces chemical weapons
Iran is building a nuclear plant
Iran is enriching uranium
What the hell could they possibly have that is so secret? Nothing. Nothing they have underground is illegal or unknown. They can enrich all the uranium they want. They can build all the nuclear plants they want. They can build any types of missiles that they want. They have had a chemical weapons program for years.
Iran doesn't keep anything secret. It likes to brag.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
As Aimster and others point out.
Iran produces chemical weapons
Iran is building a nuclear plant
Iran is enriching uranium
Now we can somewhat say the same for Russia, China, and the USA.
Yet no one is crazy enough to advocate we sic Israel on or ourselves go into Russia and China and bomb their facilities as they are being built.
Yet because Iran is much weaker than Russia or China, it suddenly makes it morally right for Iran but not China or Russia??????????????????????????????????????
Yep, might makes right wins the intellectual day yet again.
Iran produces chemical weapons
Iran is building a nuclear plant
Iran is enriching uranium
Now we can somewhat say the same for Russia, China, and the USA.
Yet no one is crazy enough to advocate we sic Israel on or ourselves go into Russia and China and bomb their facilities as they are being built.
Yet because Iran is much weaker than Russia or China, it suddenly makes it morally right for Iran but not China or Russia??????????????????????????????????????
Yep, might makes right wins the intellectual day yet again.
But it's ok for Israel to push the Palestinians off their lands (again) with an ongoing increase of settlements and repressions, as the settlers say they are determined to do.
Keep this on topic. The thread title is :Iran is continuing nuclear activities"
esquared
Anandtech Senior Moderator
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
Palehorse again asks " Why won't they allow inspectors into their supposedly "overt" underground facilities?"
When in fact much of what palehorse is doing is simply perpetuating a great lie being driven buy Israeli and US paranoia. By in large, Iran does co-operate with IAEA inspectors who State all the nuclear material in the Iranian Low level Uranium enrichment programs are accounted for. And Israel and the US are also driving the the IAEA inspectors nuts by demanding they report on any fanciful rumors they can dredge up regarding Iranian's talking to anyone with advanced bomb making experience. Israel and the US also demand IAEA have access to Iranian military operations totally unrelated to ANYTHING NUCLEAR. In short, the USA is crying wolf again and again and again, while palehorse falls for it hook line and sinker. The point being, the IAEA and the rest of the world take a more unbiased view.
http://archive.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10218067.html
When in fact much of what palehorse is doing is simply perpetuating a great lie being driven buy Israeli and US paranoia. By in large, Iran does co-operate with IAEA inspectors who State all the nuclear material in the Iranian Low level Uranium enrichment programs are accounted for. And Israel and the US are also driving the the IAEA inspectors nuts by demanding they report on any fanciful rumors they can dredge up regarding Iranian's talking to anyone with advanced bomb making experience. Israel and the US also demand IAEA have access to Iranian military operations totally unrelated to ANYTHING NUCLEAR. In short, the USA is crying wolf again and again and again, while palehorse falls for it hook line and sinker. The point being, the IAEA and the rest of the world take a more unbiased view.
http://archive.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10218067.html
Because it is not part of their nuclear program.
What the hell is there that Iran could possibly have? A nuclear reactor? Nope they openly have one and are openly building more. Enrichment facilities? Nope. They openly have those and are openly bragging about more and more of them. Missiles development to carry nuclear warheads? Nope they have an open missile program and are bragging more and more.
There is nothing Iran could have underground that could reveal a secret nuclear program. They have a very wide open nuclear program.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,774
- 46,587
- 136
Most governments don't go running to the IAEA to disclose their covert nuclear facilities. It is extremely likely the US and Israel know about or suspect things which the IAEA doesn't have a clue about.
Just ask Syria about their "disused warehouse" that the Israelis went though a lot of trouble to blow up and then was promptly buried (literally) by the Syrian government.
Just ask Syria about their "disused warehouse" that the Israelis went though a lot of trouble to blow up and then was promptly buried (literally) by the Syrian government.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Given the volume of Israeli and US suspicions, its about as likely as finding WMD in Iraq or an Iraqi Niger secret yellowcake deal.
Suspicions and paranoia do not make facts, especially when many are later debunked as crying wolf.
In the end, the whole Iranian nuclear weapons dispute can be put to bed if Iran will allow international supervision over the who decides on how to reprocess spent reactor fuel rods, a deal GWB&co could have had in 2002.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,774
- 46,587
- 136
The spent fuel (from a reactor that isn't even operational yet) isn't of paramount concern. Iran has a known enrichment program and they've been consistently less than forthcoming about what they are doing, where they are doing it, and where they got the info/equipment. That doesn't engender a lot of trust IMO.
The big worry is that they can cobble together enough centrifuge cascades to separate U-235 to a purity above 90%. At that point is really isn't difficult to build a weapon as all you have to do is calculate the critical mass of your material and bring them together at the right speed (a gun type weapon).
No they haven't. They are more than forthcoming about their enrichment program. They always brag about how they have more centrifuges than they really do.
Iran builds their own equipment. They are mass producing the equipment.
If Iran really has 8,000 centrifuges for example they will come out and say they have 12,000.
It's not like their enrichment program is top secret.
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 23K
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
-
Facebook
Twitter