Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads

[Tigerick]

Wildcat Lake (WCL) Preliminary Specs

Intel Wildcat Lake (WCL) is upcoming mobile SoC replacing ADL-N. WCL consists of 2 tiles: compute tile and PCD tile. It is true single die consists of CPU, GPU and NPU that is fabbed by 18-A process. Last time I checked, PCD tile is fabbed by TSMC N6 process. They are connected through UCIe, not D2D; a first from Intel. Expecting launching in Q2/Computex 2026. In case people don't remember AlderLake-N, I have created a table below to compare the detail specs of ADL-N and WCL. Just for fun, I am throwing LNL and upcoming Mediatek D9500 SoC.

		Intel Alder Lake - N	Intel Wildcat Lake	Intel Lunar Lake		Mediatek D9500
Launch Date		Q1-2023	Q2-2026 ?	Q3-2024		Q3-2025
Model		Intel N300	?	Core Ultra 7 268V		Dimensity 9500 5G
Dies		2	2	2		1
Node		Intel 7 + ?	Intel 18-A + TSMC N6	TSMC N3B + N6		TSMC N3P
CPU		8 E-cores	2 P-core + 4 LP E-cores	4 P-core + 4 LP E-cores		C1 1+3+4
Threads		8	6	8		8
Max Clock		3.8 GHz	?	5 GHz
L3 Cache		6 MB	?	12 MB
TDP		7 W	Fanless ?	17 W		Fanless
Memory		64-bit LPDDR5-4800	64-bit LPDDR5-6800 ?	128-bit LPDDR5X-8533		64-bit LPDDR5X-10667
Size		16 GB	?	32 GB		24 GB ?
Bandwidth			~ 55 GB/s	136 GB/s		85.6 GB/s
GPU		UHD Graphics		Arc 140V		G1 Ultra
EU / Xe		32 EU	2 Xe	8 Xe		12
Max Clock		1.25 GHz		2 GHz
NPU		NA	18 TOPS	48 TOPS		100 TOPS ?

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

 

[cannedlake240]

Has TSMC talked about receiving large pre-payments? I haven't dug into TSMC's financials so maybe they have but when looking at Intel's, I don't see anywhere there is an additional $1B in pre-payment. If I understand correctly, it should show up within their liabilities until products are shipped, but I don't see anything like that amount appearing in the time frame they say this pre-payment was received.

If it takes 2 years for customers to go from tapeout to production orders, that's a major problem for Intel.

Maybe we are not understanding each other on significant deals. If Intel gets $1B in wafer deals a year, I would say that's not significant when you're trying to be a leading edge foundry. Intel needs 5x that amount minimum to start to have significant volume to justify their operations.

The question was, where the 18A WSA revenue is and why they said 2027 and not earlier. I don't know about prepayments or where the $1B figure even comes from, that was besides the point. Was just curious whether TSMC generates revenue from nodes that aren't in production yet.

Intel didn't say it'll take 2 years to go from tapeout to launch. The CFO stated that they expect 'some external foundry revenue in 2026 and meaningful revenue starting 2027'. Plus Intel isn't getting iPhone size orders right from the start, the first tapeout chip is likely smaller volume

 

[Hitman928]

The question was, where the 18A WSA revenue is and why they said 2027 and not earlier. I don't know about prepayments or where the $1B figure even comes from, that was besides the point. Was just curious whether TSMC generates revenue from nodes that aren't in production yet.

No, TSMC doesn't produce revenue during pre-production. They start showing significant revenue around 6 - 9 months after a node goes HVM as tapeouts are completed and sent to customers.

Intel didn't say it'll take 2 years to go from tapeout to launch.

I'm using the timeline of a customer taping out in 1H25 but not getting revenue until 2027. They did say some revenue in 2026 so I guess a year later or so which isn't too bad.

The CFO stated that they expect 'some external foundry revenue in 2026 and meaningful revenue starting 2027'. Plus Intel isn't getting iPhone size orders right from the start, the first tapeout chip is likely smaller volume

Yes, that is my point. Smaller volume = no major customer. Even if the customer is large (AWS) doesn't mean they are doing large volume through IFS. It may turn into that later, but the indications are that the initial wafer deals they have lined up for IFS are not significant volume, not for a company trying to be a leading edge fab.

 

[DavidC1]

IFS has virtually no external deals. They don't have more deals than they did ten years ago. Packaging deals always existed in one form or another.

It simply is because they have not proved themselves in any way. They aren't even at the point of catching up to where Samsung is in terms of deals.

I do agree many parts of the company needs to put up or shut up. Or put up and shut up. Intel Foundry is a prime example where they talk too much because they got nothing to show for.

 

[cannedlake240]

IFS has virtually no external deals. They don't have more deals than they did ten years ago. Packaging deals always existed in one form or another.

It simply is because they have not proved themselves in any way. They aren't even at the point of catching up to where Samsung is in terms of deals.

I do agree many parts of the company needs to put up or shut up. Or put up and shut up. Intel Foundry is a prime example where they talk too much because they got nothing to show for.

6 customers is no deals? While they might be capacity constrained due to delayed fab expansions only coming online in 2027? 18A will span Intel's entire product stack unlike Intel 4 or 20A. Potential customers have to take that into account before committing to any wafer deals

 

[Thunder 57]

6 customers is no deals? While they might be capacity constrained due to delayed fab expansions only coming online in 2027? 18A will span Intel's entire product stack unlike Intel 4 or 20A. Potential customers have to take that into account before committing to any wafer deals

I think they're more interested in a proven track record. Right now Intel CPU's (client) are all TSMC except the base tile. That's not a good look.

 

[oak8292]

Has TSMC talked about receiving large pre-payments? I haven't dug into TSMC's financials so maybe they have but when looking at Intel's, I don't see anywhere there is an additional $1B in pre-payment. If I understand correctly, it should show up within their liabilities until products are shipped, but I don't see anything like that amount appearing in the time frame they say this pre-payment was received.

If it takes 2 years for customers to go from tapeout to production orders, that's a major problem for Intel.

Maybe we are not understanding each other on significant deals. If Intel gets $1B in wafer deals a year, I would say that's not significant when you're trying to be a leading edge foundry. Intel needs 5x that amount minimum to start to have significant volume to justify their operations.

This is a bit tricky. TSMC does show prepayments in their annual financial report, it is under ‘Temporary Receipts from Customers’. I believe these are wafer capacity guarantees for cutting edge nodes. They have about $7 billion and some is current and some is future. There is nothing about which node these guarantees cover, it could be N3.

“The Company’s temporary receipts from customer are payments made by customers to the Company to retain the Company’s capacity. When the terms and conditions set forth in the agreements are subsequently satisfied, the treatment of temporary receipts, either by refund or by accounts receivable offsetting, will be determined by mutual consent.”

Page 45

https://investor.tsmc.com/sites/ir/financial-report/2023/TSMC%202023Q4%20Unconsolidated%20Financial%20Statements_E.pdf

 

[DavidC1]

6 customers is no deals? While they might be capacity constrained due to delayed fab expansions only coming online in 2027? 18A will span Intel's entire product stack unlike Intel 4 or 20A. Potential customers have to take that into account before committing to any wafer deals

When is that going to turn into material gains? When will it show in the balance sheet? They've got a whole lot of work to just catch up to Samsung, nevermind TSMC.

It's what, worth $500 million per year now? For their external deals to be valuable it needs to bring in at least $5 billion in revenue if not $10 billion to stop the bleed. This is a huge amount which will require something like a superlarge customer such as Nvidia making x60 and under line up entirely Intel.

The recent admission by the former process head that 18A gains went down to 15%, and in a misleading fashion that it only lost 5% when it's actually 10% does not bring confidence they can reverse this anytime soon.

Let me tell you, if hypothetically they gain leadership with 18A-P and you have fantastic reports coming from Reuters and such and you have multiple big partners making chip making deals not packaging(Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom), then in few years maybe we'll see $2-3 billion. It takes a fantastic product few years just to make a real difference. Intel doesn't have a fantastic product.

 

[511]

ARL-H GB6

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856965915507925193

 

[511]

They themselves don't expect meaningful revenue till 27 so we should know there is nothing material now for external
In comparison to Samsung Intel wins easily just the fact that Intel's own volume is more than Samsung currently(samsung counts internal volume as well in their foundry) they are number 2 foundry and they don't have samsung bad yield hell Intel 3 is already at good D0 and is producing more wafers now and very large one have any of samsung recent node done that ?
It is unfair to samsung 🤣 cause intel is killing it in comparison

 

[cannedlake240]

When is that going to turn into material gains? When will it show in the balance sheet? They've got a whole lot of work to just catch up to Samsung, nevermind TSMC.

It's what, worth $500 million per year now? For their external deals to be valuable it needs to bring in at least $5 billion in revenue if not $10 billion to stop the bleed. This is a huge amount which will require something like a superlarge customer such as Nvidia making x60 and under line up entirely Intel.

The recent admission by the former process head that 18A gains went down to 15%, and in a misleading fashion that it only lost 5% when it's actually 10% does not bring confidence they can reverse this anytime soon.

Let me tell you, if hypothetically they gain leadership with 18A-P and you have fantastic reports coming from Reuters and such and you have multiple big partners making chip making deals not packaging(Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom), then in few years maybe we'll see $2-3 billion. It takes a fantastic product few years just to make a real difference. Intel doesn't have a fantastic product.

They already said 2H of 26 for some external revenue, ramping going into 27. PDK was made available only recently.

 

[511]

The first tape out is in 1H25 only Intel product get's the first tape out like Apple does for TSMC for the first nodes now Huawei is done

 

[cannedlake240]

The first tape out is in 1H25 only Intel product get's the first tape out like Apple does for TSMC for the first nodes now Huawei is done

It's probably not a major product either, could be some obscure pipecleaner chip. Plus some clients might prefer 18A-P which goes into production in Q3-Q4 2026

 

[511]

It's probably not a major product either, could be some obscure pipecleaner chip. Plus some clients might prefer 18A-P which goes into production in Q3-Q4 2026

We will not know until it releases we don't even know who the customer is also the pipe cleaners are Intel's product

 

[jpiniero]

ARL-H GB6

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856965915507925193

Decently better than same laptop model with Meteor Lake-H.

 

[Hulk]

Decently better than same laptop model with Meteor Lake-H.

Same score in ST as Lunar Lake, 50% better in MT. Maybe the "fix" is in!

 

[gdansk]

Same score in ST as Lunar Lake, 50% better in MT. Maybe the "fix" is in!

The fix being 8 more cores and a higher power limit?

 

[511]

The fix being 8 more cores and a higher power limit?

Well the LPE cores doesn't participate in benches in MTL

 

[dttprofessor]

Well the LPE cores doesn't participate in benches in MTL

ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

 

[511]

ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

In MTL-H it is EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP-LPELPE

 

[dttprofessor]

In MTL-H it is EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP-LPELPE

I don't think so.

 

[511]

I don't think so.

Here is the proof of My U9

 

[Thunder 57]

ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

I have to admit, I saw this and my mind read HELP. Sorry for the OT.

 

[fastandfurious6]

ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

All I read is Intel [Little-Little] PEEE PEEE

 

[Hulk]

Thank you to the person who told me to ask Intel for a refund. I did just that and they are going to refund me the purchase price of my 14900K. Looks like I'm moving to AMD.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Thank you to the person who told me to ask Intel for a refund. I did just that and they are going to refund me the purchase price of my 14900K. Looks like I'm moving to AMD.

Sadly you're still stuck with a board for which you won't get any refunds.