The last time I asked him, he didn’t know about the Xe3p changes. Do you trust him more than Petersen? Xe3 indeed looks more like Xe2.5 based on the changes Intel showcased. Of course, it can still result in bigger gains in some workloads where Xe2 was bottlenecked, but overall the architectural changes aren’t that big on Xe3. And obviously Intel agrees with that, otherwise they would have branded PTL iGPU as C-series and not just Xe3p.
		
		
	 
Neither and both, but the reasons are more complicated.
Engineering wise Xe3P might be a bigger deal, but it doesn't mean that it'll turn out into greater performance gains. Regardless of what you think, 20-30% gain per Xe core is substantial, especially because GPU usually doesn't rely on uarch gains, because focusing elsewhere such as uncore, caches bring you the gains, plus outright more cores.
Even if the Xe3P changes require more changes, it doesn't mean it'll result in more gains, because Xe3's changes could have extracted lot of the gains, thus it's harder to extract more. 20-30% gains over B580 is already in comparable RDNA4 territory, or really good. End users don't care about tech details really. In the end performance/watt, performance/$ matters. I don't care if your engine is a warp drive, if it results in 10% gain over a rocket engine 1.0. If a rocket engine 2.0 offers 30% gains, then that is a bigger gain for me.
Intel hasn't been known for being forthright for over a decade now. Also naming is partly about hiding details from the consumer to persuade you to buy higher end. That's why 3/5/7/9 naming exists. You'd think a 15W CPU should be named 3, but Intel calls it 9, because they know people pay premium for ultraportables and low power. Intel's revenues were stagnant for quite a few years until the Core ix marketing scheme, and the first year their revenue increased by 20%. Sandy Bridge increased revenue by 20% again. Core 2 in all it's glory didn't do that. Because in 2006 it already was in replacement mode for computers, so a 1.5x faster chip at 30% lower power is nice, but that's for when the current one breaks.