Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[Geddagod]

Does anyone think the rumored Raptor Lake refresh could be an Intel 4 die shrink?

Nah

 

[Geddagod]

Someone in twitter(I can't remember who) posted that Intel 4 can't boost past 4 Ghz.. So I believe Intel will just use a 7+ approach(mature process) and DLVR and bring the CPU closer to their best energy efficiency curb as possible without giving too much ground to AMD.

MLID was the guy who started the Intel 4 is going to boost terribly rumors IIRC

 

[Geddagod]

All new process needs to go through risk production to improve yield and identify defects. That's why TSMC normally spend a year of risk production of new process before entering HVM. So my most optimistic prediction is one year after manufactured ready of new process.

In fact, based on GNR being taped in Q2 2022, Intel should be finalized the design by Q2 2024. By then, Intel can start manufacturing GNR CPU tile, thus the timings are tight. I will not surprise that Intel push back shipping times to 2025 unless they work double times.

HVM Ready makes it seem like risk production and such have already been completed. Meaning that the only thing to do is start ramping to full volume, which I think takes ~1/2 to a year to complete, depending on product and market segment.

 

[Tigerick]

HVM Ready makes it seem like risk production and such have already been completed. Meaning that the only thing to do is start ramping to full volume, which I think takes ~1/2 to a year to complete, depending on product and market segment.

The slide only said Manufacturing Ready, not HVM. To me MR refers to EUV equipment and installations are complete in due time, especially Intel 18A which require High NA machines.

 

[Geddagod]

The slide only said Manufacturing Ready, not HVM. To me MR refers to EUV equipment and installations are complete in due time, especially Intel 18A which require High NA machines.

Cutress reported it as HVM ready in his tweet though. This was after his correction about him talking about the node and not ARL too, so I'm assuming they announced HVM ready or something to a similar affect.

 

[nicalandia]

Cutress reported it as HVM ready in his tweet though.

That's why I believe he is mistaken(Dr. Cutress) because the slide shows Manufacturing Ready and what Dr. Cutress clarified is that the slide was showing a picture of a certain CPU but that Intel confirmed that it's the process that would be ready and not the CPU pictured(so the CPU pictured was for references only and not take it literally)

 

[Tigerick]

The slide indeed is misleading, the process status only related to itself. The right side just shown us what is under the said process but no timings related. MTL and custom ASIC are going to be made by Intel 4 but no order or timing mentioned. That's why I said MR just refer to said process is ready at the time.

 

[lightisgood]

Does anyone think the rumored Raptor Lake refresh could be an Intel 4 die shrink?

Clearly Intel increase their parallelism, I was surprised at outperformance of Intel 7 Ultra and Raptor Lake.
So, I guess that RPL-Refresh might be made by Intel 6, not Intel 7 Ultra.

 

[nicalandia]

I guess that RPL-Refresh might be made by Intel 6, not Intel 7 Ultra.

What are you on about? There is no Intel 6 process

 

[Geddagod]

What are you on about? There is no Intel 6 process

I think he just means a further upgrade over the Intel 7 Ultra or whatever the f*** they are calling it LOL
Honestly though I preferred the "+" naming scheme Intel used to have, though instead of calling Intel SF an extra "+" they just call it Intel 10nm SF. Especially since the perf gain was so large.
IMO RPL node should just be referred to as Intel 7+, and then a potential refresh RPL as an Intel 7++. 2 plusses are not that bad, though that's basically when I would draw the line though.

 

[Geddagod]

That's why I believe he is mistaken(Dr. Cutress) because the slide shows Manufacturing Ready and what Dr. Cutress clarified is that the slide was showing a picture of a certain CPU but that Intel confirmed that it's the process that would be ready and not the CPU pictured(so the CPU pictured was for references only and not take it literally)

He corrected that he was referring to Node not CPU, and in his correction he still used the words "HVM ready". Maybe we could get that clarified in the twitter thread? It's not that big of a deal though : )

 

[nicalandia]

He corrected that he was referring to Node not CPU, and in his correction he still used the words "HVM ready". Maybe we could get that clarified in the twitter thread? It's not that big of a deal though : )

It's a Huge Deal...! Manufacturing Ready is not even close of being HVM Ready.! It's a good year difference

 

[Tigerick]

Really means nothing

 

[moinmoin]

All signs point to Meteor Lake being released in 2023 at least in some form.

I forgot about Intel releasing an obscure model in China on a noname Laptop counts as a released product.

Yeah, let's hope Meteor Lake is not a sequel to Cannon Lake.

 

[Exist50]

All new process needs to go through risk production to improve yield and identify defects. That's why TSMC normally spend a year of risk production of new process before entering HVM. So my most optimistic prediction is one year after manufactured ready of new process.

"Manufacturing ready" == volume production, not risk.

 

[Exist50]

MTL Is in Production Ready stage....

The process might be, but that doesn't mean the design/architecture is ready.

Someone in twitter(I can't remember who) posted that Intel 4 can't boost past 4 Ghz..

That was davidpro (sp?) I think. But he has no idea what he's talking about. He thinks Intel abandoning cobalt is a bad thing.

It's a Huge Deal...! Manufacturing Ready is not even close of being HVM Ready.! It's a good year difference

In general, manufacturing ready should mean HVM ready.

 

[nicalandia]

In general, manufacturing ready should mean HVM ready.

I am not sure if I get you right. Manufacturing Ready is not the same as High Volume Production for all SKUs right? Manufacturing Ready is that they have all of the initial masks ready. When they start initial production(low volume) they address any bugs, and some SKUs like SPR took longer to get to High Volume Ramp Up due to many buggs.

 

[dullard]

I forgot about Intel releasing an obscure model in China on a noname Laptop counts as a released product. So perhaps they do that late 2023. But high volume is something that has been said that it will be delayed at least one year due to TSMC iGPU Tile issues

Let's ignore any obscure model then. When did your claimed one year delay start and when will it end? Be specific. For example, a one year delay from 2022 to 2023 is far different than a one year delay from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024. You keep saying one year without specifying when you think that actually is.

 

[nicalandia]

Let's ignore any obscure model then. When did your claimed one year delay start and when will it end? Be specific. For example, a one year delay from 2022 to 2023 is far different than a one year delay from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024. You keep saying one year without specifying when you think that actually is.

My prediction? MTL is a late 2024 High Volume product.

 

[dullard]

My prediction? MTL is a late 2024 High Volume product.

Thank you for your prediction. I'll go with late November 2023 for the first high volume launch with reviews as my prediction (chips will initially be scarce but by January should be widely available).

 

[nicalandia]

Thank you for your prediction. I'll go with late November 2023 as my prediction.

Can we call it even if its land right on the middle?(like in early-mid 2024)

 

[Geddagod]

Can we call it even if its land right on the middle?(like in early-mid 2024)

I'm calling it early-mid 2024 too. I believe it might launch end of 2023, given Intel's launch schedule and cadence, but given Intel usually ramps up a bit later after launch for mobile and also that MTL is on a new node, I think early-mid 2024 is when we see good volume.

 

[Exist50]

I am not sure if I get you right. Manufacturing Ready is not the same as High Volume Production for all SKUs right? Manufacturing Ready is that they have all of the initial masks ready. When they start initial production(low volume) they address any bugs, and some SKUs like SPR took longer to get to High Volume Ramp Up due to many buggs.

So let's draw a line between the two. As I'm reading the slide + Ian's statements, "Manufacturing Ready" refers to HVM ready for the process. But as you point out (and as SPR and the like show), just because the process is ready doesn't mean any particular chip is ready to be manufactured using it. In the case of Meteor Lake, they seem to be limited by the design/architecture more so than process.

Of course, there's definitely an "If a tree falls in the forest" kind of problem here. Intel can claim the process is HVM ready, but we'll have no proof either way until/unless something actually ships using it.

 

[dullard]

Can we call it even if its land right on the middle?(like in early-mid 2024)

If it does, sure we can call it even. Can we go with the date that reviews are available and at least some people in multiple countries have purchased it successfully?

 

[nicalandia]

Can we go with the date that reviews are available and at least some people in multiple countries have purchased it successfully?

I would say Reviews in the western world as someone in China may get a hold of a laptop sample and review it many months before it reaches a USA/UK/Euro based reviewer.