Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[RTX2080]

lol at this googlish(chinenglish)

cold water fish = a user name in chiphell
great demon = to describe a famous or infamous guy (or something like that)
toothpaste = Intel (because Intel stucked at Skylake+14nm several years, so these Chinese have mocking Intel by using a word 'toothpaste', to describe how slow Intel upgrade their product, as slow as the usage of toothpaste when you clean your teeth)

Su’s mother = Lisa Su , Mrs Su
last sentense......sry even I don't understand lol

BTW I personally dislike chiphell cuz this forum itself is a rumor mill(and even click baiting), '5Ghz air cooling on Zen2' , and IIRC it has some bad track record in the past 10 years......so thats it, I stopped quoting those rumor in these forum unless the leak paired with image/photo.

 

[uzzi38]

lol at this googlish(chinenglish)

cold water fish = a user name in chiphell
great demon = a famous or infamous guy (or something like that)
toothpaste = Intel (because Intel stucked at Skylake+14nm several years, so these Chinese have mocking Intel by using a word 'toothpaste', to describe how slow Intel release their product, as slow as the usage of toothpaste when you clean your teeth)

Su’s mother = Lisa Su , Mrs Su
last sentense......sry even I don't understand lol

BTW I personally dislike chiphell cuz this forum itself is a rumor mill(and even click baiting), '5Ghz air cooling on Zen2' , and IIRC it has some bad track record in the past 10 years......so thats it, I stopped quoting those rumor in these forum unless the leak paired with image/photo.

Iirc agricultural enterprise was AMD. I remember being told that once by Chia I think but I forget the explanation of what was up with that.

 

[RTX2080]

Iirc agricultural enterprise was AMD.

Ah thx, I just misread 'agricultural' as 'architectural', yes it is a mocking against AMD, many years ago HD6970 has a problem of heatsink, size didn't fit into the board of 6970 so the factory decide to 'polish' the plastic part of the board(8-pin) by hand & onebyone.

 

[shady28]

Hmm...

"The demand for B460 and H410 chipsets has skyrocketed. Both of these are aimed at business solutions or those working on a tight budget. Major manufacturers such as ASRock, ASUSTeK, BIOSTAR, GIGABYTE, and MSI have reported that they are nearly out of stock and are expected to raise prices for remaining inventory. "

Shortages for Intel B460 and H410 Chipsets Expected

Demand for low-end 400 series motherboards is driving price increases and new shortages that are expected to continue beyond January.

www.thefpsreview.com

 

[jpiniero]

toothpaste = Intel (because Intel stucked at Skylake+14nm several years, so these Chinese have mocking Intel by using a word 'toothpaste', to describe how slow Intel upgrade their product, as slow as the usage of toothpaste when you clean your teeth)

It's a reference to the TIM.

 

[jpiniero]

Hmm...

"The demand for B460 and H410 chipsets has skyrocketed. Both of these are aimed at business solutions or those working on a tight budget. Major manufacturers such as ASRock, ASUSTeK, BIOSTAR, GIGABYTE, and MSI have reported that they are nearly out of stock and are expected to raise prices for remaining inventory. "

Gotta call shens on this one. Intel's desktop volume was down 18% last quarter.

 

[shady28]

Gotta call shens on this one. Intel's desktop volume was down 18% last quarter.

Got a reference for that? I'm going to guess no, posting anti-intel nonsense (trolling) makes it seem like you're another one to add to my AMD troll ignore list.

This is what Intel reported last quarter for client:

"Intel’s largest business, the Client Computing Group that sells PC chips, produced $9.85 billion in revenue, up 1% year over year and above the $9.09 billion consensus among analysts polled by FactSet. "

This is Intel's revenue chart for the past 14 years :



Their revenue from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020 went from 70B to 78B. AMD's entire revenue stream for Q3 2020 was just over 8B.

If you're not getting that, what I'm telling you is that Intel increased revenue more from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020 than AMD had revenue total for that quarter.

AMD fanboys are such a joke. You sound just like Abbott and Costello in this video :

YouTube video deleted as it has nothing to do with CPU tech debate.
Additionally, you are not allowed to use insults such as "fanboys".

AT Mod Usandthem

 

[jpiniero]

Got a reference for that? I'm going to guess no, posting anti-intel nonsense (trolling) makes it seem like you're another one to add to my AMD troll ignore list.

Intel's own financials. Page 33.

https://www.intc.com/filings-reports/all-sec-filings/content/0000050863-20-000043/0000050863-20-000043.pdf

 

[shady28]

Intel's own financials. Page 33.

https://www.intc.com/filings-reports/all-sec-filings/content/0000050863-20-000043/0000050863-20-000043.pdf

Dude, you do realize what you are talking about is the overwhelming increase in notebook sales vs desktop??

The main driver in Q3 was all the kids who had to do remote learning. Everybody and their dog was buying a laptop for this. The pattern is likely completely different here in Q4.



So notebooks +25% and desktop down 18%. Net was +138M in sales for the quarter vs 2019.

 

[jpiniero]

Dude, you do realize what you are talking about is the overwhelming increase in notebook sales vs desktop??

Desktop sales are down because of people are WFH. That situation hasn't changed.

 

[shady28]

Desktop sales are down because of people are WFH. That situation hasn't changed.

It's irrelevant to the initial supply issue post. The most recent estimates are that PC client volume is going to be near 300M this year, matching 2008 and up from about 260M last year.

With the bulk of that being Intel based, it's all coming from the same fabs.

You don't have to look far to find the beginnings of these shortages. I'm seeing them at Microcenter already. Mine has one Z490 with 25+ units, one H470 with 4 units, and the rest are all at 1 unit. Newegg has 8 out of 23 B460, and 7 out of 11 H470 motherboards out of stock.

I had thought this was the normal deplete the supply chain inventory move before a new launch, but unless RKL and the 5XX series actually ship in January it's too early.

 

[Exist50]

Dude, you do realize what you are talking about is the overwhelming increase in notebook sales vs desktop??

The main driver in Q3 was all the kids who had to do remote learning. Everybody and their dog was buying a laptop for this. The pattern is likely completely different here in Q4.

View attachment 36981

So notebooks +25% and desktop down 18%. Net was +138M in sales for the quarter vs 2019.

Thee entire context here was desktop chipset sales.

 

[shady28]

Thee entire context here was desktop chipset sales.

The context was a shortage of them, and they come off the same production lines as the laptop chipsets.

 

[Exist50]

The context was a shortage of them, and they come off the same production lines as the laptop chipsets.

The first line you quoted was:

The demand for B460 and H410 chipsets has skyrocketed

Demand for desktop chipsets and desktop CPUs should be effectively 1:1.

 

[shady28]

The first line you quoted was:



Demand for desktop chipsets and desktop CPUs should be effectively 1:1.

So first, you do realize that I was responding to someone who said there is no shortage of desktop chipsets, correct?

The demand for laptop chipsets and laptop CPUs should also effectively be 1:1. The difference is that the chipsets and desktop CPUs are all 14nm, but the laptop CPUs are increasingly 10nm. I'm not sure that's relevant at all.

If demand for laptops is high, Intel can immediately flex its production in that direction. Regardless of how it flexes production, if there is a shortage of desktop chipsets then it means something is selling gangbusters - either laptops or desktops. It matters not one iota which one.

 

[Gideon]

Rocket Lake release in the end of March according to MSI:

MSI confirms Rocket Lake-S CPU will launch in March - VideoCardz.com

MSI confirms 11th Gen Core desktop CPU series will launch end of March MSI’s official account on South Korean Danawa forums confirmed that existing 400 series motherboards will support 11th Gen Core CPUs, with the Z490 high-end motherboard receiving the update first. MSI also confirmed that the...

videocardz.com

 

[Exist50]

So first, you do realize that I was responding to someone who said there is no shortage of desktop chipsets, correct?

The demand for laptop chipsets and laptop CPUs should also effectively be 1:1. The difference is that the chipsets and desktop CPUs are all 14nm, but the laptop CPUs are increasingly 10nm. I'm not sure that's relevant at all.

If demand for laptops is high, Intel can immediately flex its production in that direction. Regardless of how it flexes production, if there is a shortage of desktop chipsets then it means something is selling gangbusters - either laptops or desktops. It matters not one iota which one.

Then you're completely ignoring what the article said and what people are responding to. This isn't worth the outrage.

 

[shady28]

Exactly what I've been saying for some time now, AMD is not making any significant number of CPUs or GPUs here in Q4. They are too busy filling contracts for PS5 / Xbox.

AMD Loses Both CPU and GPU Share in December: RTX 3080 Share Doubles [Steam Survey] | Hardware Times

December wasn’t a very positive month for AMD in the PC gaming market if the recent Steam Hardware results are anything to go by. The company lost a sizable share in both the CPU and GPU markets, something that hasn’t happened in almost a year. In the CPU segment, AMD lost 2%, the first drop …

www.hardwaretimes.com

 

[dr1337]

Exactly what I've been saying for some time now, AMD is not making any significant number of CPUs or GPUs here in Q4. They are too busy filling contracts for PS5 / Xbox.

AMD Loses Both CPU and GPU Share in December: RTX 3080 Share Doubles [Steam Survey] | Hardware Times

December wasn’t a very positive month for AMD in the PC gaming market if the recent Steam Hardware results are anything to go by. The company lost a sizable share in both the CPU and GPU markets, something that hasn’t happened in almost a year. In the CPU segment, AMD lost 2%, the first drop …

www.hardwaretimes.com

Well, this article is fairly disingenuous as the steam hardware survey is widely known to being prone to accidental manipulation. Whats happened before in the past (and im certain is happening now) is that cyber cafes in countries like china will use lots of old recycled second hand hardware to outfit their establishments.

If you check the steam hardware stats yourself, you'll notice that English is down almost 6% and the gain in intel marketshare is entirely with processors under 3.3ghz. Its very safe to say that steam hardware stats do not always represent real world changes in marketshare. I suppose there could be a huge influx of intel laptops in foreign markets, but thats definitely not what the article you linked is trying to argue, and frankly there has yet to be any evidence of this anyways.

 

[dr1337]

I only clicked once but managed to post twice, nice. delete pls

 

[shady28]

Well, this article is fairly disingenuous as the steam hardware survey is widely known to being prone to accidental manipulation. Whats happened before in the past (and im certain is happening now) is that cyber cafes in countries like china will use lots of old recycled second hand hardware to outfit their establishments.

If you check the steam hardware stats yourself, you'll notice that English is down almost 6% and the gain in intel marketshare is entirely with processors under 3.3ghz. Its very safe to say that steam hardware stats do not always represent real world changes in marketshare. I suppose there could be a huge influx of intel laptops in foreign markets, but thats definitely not what the article you linked is trying to argue, and frankly there has yet to be any evidence of this anyways.

Says who, got any evidence that it's being manipulated?

If not why would you say that (other than the obvious brand bias)?

November survey might have been a blip for Nvidia, but two months in a row is not a blip. There are a buttload of 3080s being sold - probably through OEMs. That's already been referenced in this thread multiple times with links and images.

It's going to start getting much more difficult for AMD fans to defend them while they are making chips for Sony and Microsoft.

On CPUs Look at how the 10 core (obviously Intel) jumped up. 12 core (obv AMD) dropped.



And this shows the sudden reversal of a multi-month increase in AMD share, it's crystal clear what is happening now - AMD has nothing to sell.

 

[uzzi38]

Exactly what I've been saying for some time now, AMD is not making any significant number of CPUs or GPUs here in Q4. They are too busy filling contracts for PS5 / Xbox.

AMD Loses Both CPU and GPU Share in December: RTX 3080 Share Doubles [Steam Survey] | Hardware Times

December wasn’t a very positive month for AMD in the PC gaming market if the recent Steam Hardware results are anything to go by. The company lost a sizable share in both the CPU and GPU markets, something that hasn’t happened in almost a year. In the CPU segment, AMD lost 2%, the first drop …

www.hardwaretimes.com

So I'm guessing you also believe the 2060, 2070 and 1060 were the most sought after GPUs this quarter?

Or that despite the sheer number of additional RTX 3000 supply that's been coming in, the actual number of people running RTX3080s only doubled?

Or that the number of GPUs not compliant with DX9 increased in the last month by near 2 full % points?!?!

If you want real numbers, then let me introduce you to Scan UK and the number of Ryzen 5000 shipments they've been getting weekly as a single lone retailer.

And they're not even a hugely popular retailer compared to the likes of Amazon and OverClockersUK

AMD RYZEN 5000 Series Processors Status | SCAN UK

 

[uzzi38]

Anyway main reason I came here was to post the 10850K review:

Intel Core i9-10850K Review: The Real Intel Flagship (anandtech.com)

It's uh, kind of exactly as expected. A 10900K with slightly lower boost clock that has virtually no effect in games. Worse binning means it also pulls notably more power than the 10900K (15-20W higher in all-core heavy loads).

 

[shady28]

So I'm guessing you also believe the 2060, 2070 and 1060 were the most sought after GPUs this quarter?

Sought after is not the same as sold. A Doge Challenger may be the most sought after Dodge, but the SXT is the one most sold.

You might've noticed that these cards are constantly selling out, and are in all kinds of OEM systems as well.

Or that despite the sheer number of additional RTX 3000 supply that's been coming in, the actual number of people running RTX3080s only doubled?

In one month? I'd say that's a lot of cards sold.

Or that the number of GPUs not compliant with DX9 increased in the last month by near 2 full % points?!?!

If you want real numbers, then let me introduce you to Scan UK and the number of Ryzen 5000 shipments they've been getting weekly as a single lone retailer.

And they're not even a hugely popular retailer compared to the likes of Amazon and OverClockersUK

AMD RYZEN 5000 Series Processors Status | SCAN UK

And that is the most easily manipulated metric.

Sell nothing to the big 7 OEMs that supply 85% of the market.

Sell what little you have to a few retailers for DIY types who all combined supply maybe 1 or 2% of the market (social engineering given how vocal DIY types are).

Facts :
AMD isn't producing new Zen 2
Not one of the major OEMs carrys Zen 3 (85% of the market)
Most DIY channels stay sold out of Zen 3 despite being the main target of supply (~5% of the market)
Only the 3rd tier SI's carry AMD, and their supply is sporadic as well and of course they also carry Intel (~10% of the market)
RDNA 2 series still doesn't show up on steam, at all

 

[Hitman928]

Sought after is not the same as sold. A Doge Challenger may be the most sought after Dodge, but the SXT is the one most sold.

You might've noticed that these cards are constantly selling out, and are in all kinds of OEM systems as well.




In one month? I'd say that's a lot of cards sold.



And that is the most easily manipulated metric.

Sell nothing to the big 7 OEMs that supply 85% of the market.

Sell what little you have to a few retailers for DIY types who all combined supply maybe 1 or 2% of the market (social engineering given how vocal DIY types are).

Facts :
AMD isn't producing new Zen 2
Not one of the major OEMs carrys Zen 3 (85% of the market)
Most DIY channels stay sold out of Zen 3 despite being the main target of supply (~5% of the market)
Only the 3rd tier SI's carry AMD, and their supply is sporadic as well and of course they also carry Intel (~10% of the market)
RDNA 2 series still doesn't show up on steam, at all

Using steam numbers is a bad idea, we've gone over this so many times and it's actually now against forum rules to use steam hardware survey numbers anyway. Fourth quarter reports will be out in a few weeks, why not wait for real data and then we can have a discussion on market share?