I believe the expectation was that nobody could show any evidence that ASML had delivered enough EUV equipment to Intel to sustain those production levels (estimated production levels were 20 kwpm). Though we may be measuring something differently here.
In any case I had expected a dearth of Intel 4 products for that reason - insufficient wafer output due to machinery shortages. In a way, it's kind of worse if their own teams simply don't want anything to do with the node.
My table uses the same Mizuho Securities data that led most of the internet to assume that Intel was capacity constrained due to lack of EUV systems. I just chose not to badly misinterpret that data. Mizuho did indeed forecast 20 kwspm for Intel 4 in 2023, but that was in no way related to the number of EUV systems they expected them to have. Anyone who bothered to do the math or look at Intel's roadmap could see that.
Mizuho stated that Intel took delivery of 10 EUV systems between 2018-2020, and estimated that they would receive an additional 2 in 2021 with 3 more coming in 2022. I assumed that systems delivered in 2021 would likely be installed by the end of this year, but the 2022 deliveries probably couldn't be counted on until late 2023. We also know that ASML shipped 25 EUV systems prior to 2018 and that TSMC received 15 of those. It is plausible that Intel received up to half of the remaining 10 systems shipped during that period. That works out to a range of 12 to 20 EUV systems available to Intel during the next four quarters.
I then checked Mizuho's capacity forcasts for 2023 to see how many EUV systems Intel and TSMC would actually need. I deliberately bumped Intel 4 up to 30 kwspm to show that they have more than enough EUV systems to handle any capacity they could conceivably use, and because D1X Mod3 alone can accommodate at least 30 kwspm. I also reduced Mizuho's TSMC N3 estimate down to 90 kwspm from 120 because we know they only have three fabs available for N3 after the N5 expansion took over Fab 18 phase 4, and initial volume for phases 5 and 6 is only 30 kwspm. I applied the same "1 EUV system per EUV layer for every 45 kwspm" rule to every node using the maximum reported number of EUV layers to ensure sufficient capacity.
I'm introducing very little additional information that was not available back in April, 2021 when the Mizuho guidance for ASML was published. The evidence was sitting there the whole time; people just love rumors and hate math.