This is based on ASML Financial reporting, # of EUV systems per year :
| 2015-2017 | 16 | |
| 2018 | 18 | |
| 2019 | 26 | TSMC has half of all EUV machines (statement in Aug 2020) = 30 |
| 2020 | 31 | |
| 2021 | 32 | Based on 2x first half 2021 |
| Total | 123 | |
Even if TSMC had bought every single EUV machine after their statement in 2020 of having half of the ones made to that point, they'd still only have about 90. A lot more likely they have about 60-70 right now. The earlier machines cannot do below 5nm (TSMC N7/N5/N4).
TSMC would need a 3600D for 3nm, and
ASML delivered its first one in mid 2021. Earlier models were 7 / 5nm (TSMC N7 / N5 / N4).
Intel also purchased a number of these earlier units and reported have at least a couple of them up and running in 2019, but yields were not as good as expected. In 2015 Intel had ordered 15 EUV systems from ASML, which is half of what was produced up until 2019.
If we assume ASML is producing the 3600D as fast as other models were produced at 32/year starting mid 2021, then there would at most be 30-35 in existence right now. TSMCs goal was to get 60 systems shipped by 2023.
I would bet there is a 40/40/20 split between TSMC / Intel / Samsung on the new models. That would be like 12/12/8 3nm capable machines each.
This means you've got way too many credited to TSMC for the N3 node.
This should not be surprising given we know TSMC delayed Apple in getting 3nm last year and this year only the top iPhone models will have the 3nm A16, the rest will continue to use the 5nm A15.
The $340M EUV systems Intel recently ordered (Jan) were the 5200 model, which doesn't exist as a shipping system yet. That is for 2024/2025.