Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[Zucker2k]

If we're already on the subject, I also don't really know who on Earth buys an extremely cost-inefficient ultrathin laptop for....playing back video.

Cringe, as usual.

 

[repoman27]

In practice it's more likely to be the same time. This year is probably going to be just K. Some of it is probably embarrassment over Rocket Lake.

Also the P die almost has to be way bigger than the U one.

You're killing me here. P is a package, U is a platform prefix, neither are dies. Nobody at Intel feels strongly enough about Rocket Lake to delay the release of their highest volume client platform.

ADL Platform	ADL Die	ADL Package
M5	2+8+2 LP	M (BGA 1781)
U9	2+8+2 LP	M (BGA 1781)
U15	2+8+2 LP	P (BGA 1744)
U28	6+8+2 LP	P (BGA 1744)
H45	6+8+2 LP	P (BGA 1744)
H55	8+8+1 HP	S BGA (BGA ????)
S35	6+0+1 HP or 8+8+1 HP	S (LGA 1700)
S65	6+0+1 HP or 8+8+1 HP	S (LGA 1700)
S80	6+0+1 HP or 8+8+1 HP	S (LGA 1700)
S125	8+8+1 HP	S (LGA 1700)

We can be pretty certain that the 6+8+2 LP die is bigger than the 2+8+2 LP die, and the 8+8+1 HP die is larger than the 6+0+1 HP die.

We've seen a leaked slide that showed ADL-S 8+8+1 as being on the production dashboard for WW35'21 start of volume production, indicating a possible Q4'21 launch, and ADL-S 6+0+1 as WW41'21 start of volume production for a possible Q1'22 launch.

8 years of historical data tell us that Intel is almost certainly shooting for a Q3'21 launch for 2+8+2 LP products, and the schedule for the past 4 years would indicate that 6+8+2 products will follow in Q2'22.

 

[majord]

Asus ZenBook 13 laptop review: Core i7-1165G7 versus Ryzen 7 5800U. Which one is the better ZenBook?
Both systems have same battery capacity, very similar (as in almost identical) OLED panels from Samsung, same SSD model. Intel system has 32GB LPDDR4X, AMD system has 16GB DDR4 3733.

AMD 5800U system
WiFi Browsing 9h 10m / Load 3h 54m

Intel i7-1165G7 system
WiFi Browsing 10h 40m / Load 3h 2m

TGL platform wins the browsing test by 16%, the AMD platform wins the load test by 29% while also delivering significantly more performance. Pick your poison.

So TLDR,: Intel is the better platform , providing it's not doing anything

 

[insertcarehere]

So TLDR,: Intel is the better platform , providing it's not doing anything.

Implying that 95% of 13-inch thin and light notebooks aren't primarily bought for web browsing and office work?

 

[lobz]

Cringe, as usual.

Clear and clever reasoning with unquestionable logic, as usual.

 

[lobz]

(...)Nobody at Intel feels strongly enough about Rocket Lake to delay the release of their highest volume client platform. (...)

That exact same reasoning was yelled at these pages right when Comet Lake was supposed to launch(2H19), and then the same thing again with Rocket Lake. I can 100% imagine that nobody at Intel is feeling strongly enough about Rocket Lake, but that alone doesn't make nonexistent chips suddenly available to launch. People keep citing Q3, well, we're entering Q3 the day after tomorrow, so they better turn up the heat in the fabs...

 

[jpiniero]

8 years of historical data tell us that Intel is almost certainly shooting for a Q3'21 launch for 2+8+2 LP products, and the schedule for the past 4 years would indicate that 6+8+2 products will follow in Q2'22.

You're wrong anyway since Skylake was first on desktop even though mobile wasn't that far behind. Somewhat similar situation happened since they didn't refresh the desktop with Broadwell (except for Broadwell-C which effectively ended up being cancelled).

I don't think the 2+8 die is a priority.

 

[lobz]

I don't think the 2+8 die is a priority.

It could be if they were still in the phone business. Somehow they are not.

 

[Asterox]

Asus ZenBook 13 laptop review: Core i7-1165G7 versus Ryzen 7 5800U. Which one is the better ZenBook?
Both systems have same battery capacity, very similar (as in almost identical) OLED panels from Samsung, same SSD model. Intel system has 32GB LPDDR4X, AMD system has 16GB DDR4 3733.

AMD 5800U system
WiFi Browsing 9h 10m / Load 3h 54m

Intel i7-1165G7 system
WiFi Browsing 10h 40m / Load 3h 2m

TGL platform wins the browsing test by 16%, the AMD platform wins the load test by 29% while also delivering significantly more performance. Pick your poison.

Well, known facts Intel TGL is power hungry.

Discussion - Intel Core i7-11370H is it power hungry?

Well, obviously Tigerlake it can be very power hungry for 4/8 Mobile 10nm CPU. https://ark.intel.com/content/www/us/en/ark/products/196655/intel-core-i7-11370h-processor-12m-cache-up-to-4-80-ghz-with-ipu.html CPU package power, or we look only at CPU power consumption. For comparison i will...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[repoman27]

That exact same reasoning was yelled at these pages right when Comet Lake was supposed to launch(2H19), and then the same thing again with Rocket Lake. I can 100% imagine that nobody at Intel is feeling strongly enough about Rocket Lake, but that alone doesn't make nonexistent chips suddenly available to launch. People keep citing Q3, well, we're entering Q3 the day after tomorrow, so they better turn up the heat in the fabs...

Comet Lake did launch in 2H19. On Aug 21, 2019, with the Comet Lake-U 6+2 V1 die. Rocket Lake-U was planned for Q3'20 and was on the roadmaps but was cancelled. However, it was always slated for release alongside Tiger Lake-U, which did launch, albeit ever so slightly later than usual in September.

What makes you think the folks at Fab 28 aren't currently underway with the volume ramp of Alder Lake-P?

You're wrong anyway since Skylake was first on desktop even though mobile wasn't that far behind. Somewhat similar situation happened since they didn't refresh the desktop with Broadwell (except for Broadwell-C which effectively ended up being cancelled).

I don't think the 2+8 die is a priority.

Skylake was really the last of the full-stack launches. As I already pointed out, Intel did release two retail boxed SKUs four weeks ahead of the general launch. That in no way implies that the production schedule put desktop first. In fact there is evidence that SKL 2+2 LP was still the lead die:

How was Intel cancelling Broadwell desktop after 8 months of utterly failing to produce usable quad-core laptop dies on their initial 14nm process in any way a similar situation?

I'm pretty sure Dell, HP, and Lenovo, who buy more Intel CPUs than everyone else in the world combined, think that ADL 2+8+2 LP is more of a priority than ADL 8+8+1 HP. Although the sheer abundance of discrete GPUs right now is probably making systems based on 125W desktop chips outsell premium thin and light notebooks at least 2 to 1. 🙄

 

[uzzi38]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1409860777264168967

Q1 production, Q2 ramp for SPR.

Looks like GA is a very late Q2 or more likely Q3 ordeal.

EDIT: Intel are still stating H1 launch.

 

[coercitiv]

Updates on Intel’s Next-Gen Data Center Platform, Sapphire Rapids

Given the breadth of enhancements in Sapphire Rapids, we are incorporating additional validation time prior to the production release, which will streamline the deployment process for our customers and partners. Based on this, we now expect Sapphire Rapids to be in production in the first quarter of 2022, with ramp beginning in the second quarter of 2022.

Ninja'd by @uzzi38

 

[jpiniero]

How was Intel cancelling Broadwell desktop after 8 months of utterly failing to produce usable quad-core laptop dies on their initial 14nm process in any way a similar situation?

Broadwell-C isn't a laptop processor. 5775C, 5675C.

To be clear what I think is going to end up happening is a paper launch of the K parts sometime in Q3/Q4 (date doesn't really matter) with actual availability at the end of the year. Rest of the lineup will launch in Q1.

 

[Gideon]

Updates on Intel’s Next-Gen Data Center Platform, Sapphire Rapids


Ninja'd by @uzzi38

Shocking indeed. That means general availability not before Q3 22.

I'm sure Alder lake is also ready for Q3 but "because of extra validation for Big + little configuration and Windows 11 compatiblity testing" is also delayed a quarter or two.

Here is a reminder how the roadmap looked in 2019:

So no CPU has released on time since original Coffe Lake, let alone sooner, but I'm sure Meteor Lake will

 

[repoman27]

Q1 production, Q2 ramp for SPR.

Looks like GA is a very late Q2 or more likely Q3 ordeal.

EDIT: Intel are still stating H1 launch.

Let's unpack that press release:

Given the breadth of enhancements in Sapphire Rapids, we are incorporating additional validation time prior to the production release, which will streamline the deployment process for our customers and partners. Based on this, we now expect Sapphire Rapids to be in production in the first quarter of 2022, with ramp beginning in the second quarter of 2022.

What she's saying is problems were encountered during validation and PRQ for Sapphire Rapids has now slipped one quarter from Q4'21 to Q1'22. As soon as they achieve PRQ, they can ship whatever passing chips they have from risk production for revenue. That's what the early shipments are, and what Intel considers "launched" when talking to investors. The press embargo, what the media considers a launch, will follow the volume ramp which is now scheduled for Q2'22, and retail availability will be sometime after that, likely in late Q3-Q4'22.

If you take Ice Lake-SP as an example, PRQ, "launch", and early shipments all took place in Q4'20. The volume ramp happened in Q1'21, and the press embargo lifted on April 6, 2021. Availability is completely notional for everything at the moment due to supply chain insanity, so I hesitate to comment on that in regards to ICL-SP.

Broadwell-C isn't a laptop processor. 5775C, 5675C.

Right, in the same way that 65W TGL-H isn't a laptop processor. The Broadwell 4+3e HP die was intended primarily for the H platform. It was horribly delayed and leaked so badly that it was unusable in Apple's MacBook Pros. Apple being the primary customer for that die took their allocation as 65W BGA "R" parts and used them in iMacs. Intel sold the rest as socketed LGA "C" parts and gave up on Broadwell quad-cores for the client segment entirely after that. To quote Dr. Cutress:

All-told, Intel is launching ten different SKUs, five 47W laptop and five 65W 'desktop', using a mix of socketed (LGA) and soldered (BGA) parts. All five desktop SKUs are still technically Broadwell-H, and all five are 65W quad-core models featuring Intel's Iris Pro integrated graphics and the product's associated Crystal Well L4 cache. Meanwhile in an interesting turn of events, the two socketed models will be breaking the mold by becoming the first H-family processors to be socketed. These will be the parts we're looking at today.

Of the five 47W laptop SKUs, the i7-5700HQ went into a couple MSI and Gigabyte gaming laptops, and the rest pretty much never saw the light of day.

 

[lobz]

Comet Lake did launch in 2H19. On Aug 21, 2019, with the Comet Lake-U 6+2 V1 die. Rocket Lake-U was planned for Q3'20 and was on the roadmaps but was cancelled. However, it was always slated for release alongside Tiger Lake-U, which did launch, albeit ever so slightly later than usual in September.

What makes you think the folks at Fab 28 aren't currently underway with the volume ramp of Alder Lake-P?

Skylake was really the last of the full-stack launches. As I already pointed out, Intel did release two retail boxed SKUs four weeks ahead of the general launch. That in no way implies that the production schedule put desktop first. In fact there is evidence that SKL 2+2 LP was still the lead die:

How was Intel cancelling Broadwell desktop after 8 months of utterly failing to produce usable quad-core laptop dies on their initial 14nm process in any way a similar situation?

I'm pretty sure Dell, HP, and Lenovo, who buy more Intel CPUs than everyone else in the world combined, think that ADL 2+8+2 LP is more of a priority than ADL 8+8+1 HP. Although the sheer abundance of discrete GPUs right now is probably making systems based on 125W desktop chips outsell premium thin and light notebooks at least 2 to 1. 🙄

Yeah please feel free to punish my typo/brainfart even though you know full well what I meant. Comet Lake was launched almost 3 quarters later than "expected", or rather hoped for.

 

[lobz]

What she's saying is problems were encountered during validation and PRQ for Sapphire Rapids has now slipped one quarter from Q4'21 to Q1'22.

It's as if you were born this year. I doubt that, so I think you may have just started to take an interest in semiconductors and computing architectures very recently. I see no other reason to believe the exact same utter crap they play quarter to quarter for 3 years now. The only things changing are the code names and business quarters from time to time, but the bull excrement remains the same.

I'd also advice against citing Ice Lake SP as an example of anything positive regarding to launch forecasts.

 

[RTX]

Alderlake Xeon should be 2022 at least? Mobile Xeons always launched together with the mobile consumer lineup.
Q3 2015 E3-1535Mv5 and i7-6920HQ
Q1 2016 E3-1575Mv5 and i7-6970HQ
Q1 2017 E3-1535Mv5 and i7-7920HQ
Q2 2018 E-2186M and i9-8950HK
Q2 2019 E-2286M and i9-9980HK
Q2 2020 W-10885M and i9-10980HK
Q2 2021 W-11955M and i9-11980HK

 

[repoman27]

It's as if you were born this year. I doubt that, so I think you may have just started to take an interest in semiconductors and computing architectures very recently. I see no other reason to believe the exact same utter crap they play quarter to quarter for 3 years now. The only things changing are the code names and business quarters from time to time, but the bull excrement remains the same.

I'd also advice against citing Ice Lake SP as an example of anything positive regarding to launch forecasts.

I think you're misinterpreting my tone. I was of half a mind to go full Charlie on my PR speak translation and say something like, "Our customers have once again pointed out great numbers of critical bugs during the qualification of Sapphire Rapids, and we are happy to announce that we're delaying yet another quarter while we pretend to do the bare minimum to address one or two of these showstoppers in microcode."

Please refrain from ad-homs, you're way off base.

Yeah please feel free to punish my typo/brainfart even though you know full well what I meant. Comet Lake was launched almost 3 quarters later than "expected", or rather hoped for.

Honestly, I have no idea what you meant, because Comet Lake-U launched right on schedule in Q3'19, followed by Comet Lake-H in Q2'20 (also on schedule, although the 10C was cancelled), and Comet Lake-S in Q2'20—which was clearly one full quarter late. For the record, I will absolutely admit that I was one of the folks holding out hope that maybe Intel would release a couple desktop K SKUs in Q4'19, although that's obviously not what was on the roadmaps. But that has no bearing on me saying ADL-P will probably launch in Q3'21, because it's either that or a much more extensive TGL-U Refresh.

 

[Zucker2k]

Please refrain from ad-homs, you're way off base.

Goodluck, with that!
He doesn't contribute anything worthwhile in this thread. He's just here to check anything resembling optimism from Intel. LOL

 

[jpiniero]

because it's either that or a much more extensive TGL-U Refresh.

I wouldn't rule out more Tiger Lake-U but I think they've done all they can do with the new SKUs released at Computex. Perhaps models that officially support LPDDR5.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Sure, but that doesn't match the quote given. So there must be something else, which like as not is Meteor Lake.

. . . would you want it to be something else? Intel's yields at that point will be a complete unknown. Intel has already signaled 2023 for Meteor Lake at the earliest. I'm thinking anything they try to produce on 2022 will be at extremely low yields (hence the desire to use tiny RISC-V dice as a pipecleaner).

Q1 production, Q2 ramp for SPR.

Looks like GA is a very late Q2 or more likely Q3 ordeal.

EDIT: Intel are still stating H1 launch.

Ouch. Sapphire Rapids has slipped almost 2-3Q into the future. Could be a late Q2 launch with no availability.

If you take Ice Lake-SP as an example, PRQ, "launch", and early shipments all took place in Q4'20. The volume ramp happened in Q1'21, and the press embargo lifted on April 6, 2021. Availability is completely notional for everything at the moment due to supply chain insanity, so I hesitate to comment on that in regards to ICL-SP.

Are you serious? IceLake-SP had allegedly shipped fewer than 100k units by April 2021. Early shipments my patoot. That's a trickle of CPUs. You STILL can't buy an IceLake-SP - based rackmount or workstation today, while you CAN buy Milan (which is surprising, but I actually found configurators doing it). In fact Dell isn't shipping any IceLake-SP rackmounts to customers who order through their site before August.

 

[lobz]

Goodluck, with that!
He doesn't contribute anything worthwhile in this thread. He's just here to check anything resembling optimism from Intel. LOL

I'm OK with you totally misunderstanding my comments because of your bias, it's a free world after all. However, I can still ask you to try and not talk about me to other people in hyperbolic generalizations. Thanks in advance.

 

[Exist50]

. . . would you want it to be something else? Intel's yields at that point will be a complete unknown. Intel has already signaled 2023 for Meteor Lake at the earliest. I'm thinking anything they try to produce on 2022 will be at extremely low yields (hence the desire to use tiny RISC-V dice as a pipecleaner).

My point was simply that the claims of MTL in Q4'23-Q1'24 are, at this point, complete speculation, given Intel's last statement on the matter (and after the 7nm delay) is that they'd ship a year earlier than that.

When will MTL actually ship? Darned if I know. Probably Q1'23 at best. But I feel like if someone is going to assert a full year delay from the official timeline, they should at least justify that claim.

And yes, Horseshoe Creek is absolutely a low volume pipecleaner. IIRC, Intel uses the "Creek" name for test chips, so that's telling enough.

 

[repoman27]

... Ouch. Sapphire Rapids has slipped almost 2-3Q into the future. Could be a late Q2 launch with no availability.

... Are you serious? IceLake-SP had allegedly shipped fewer than 100k units by April 2021. Early shipments my patoot. That's a trickle of CPUs. You STILL can't buy an IceLake-SP - based rackmount or workstation today, while you CAN buy Milan (which is surprising, but I actually found configurators doing it). In fact Dell isn't shipping any IceLake-SP rackmounts to customers who order through their site before August.

I clearly need to work on my communication skills. My response to uzzi38's statement of, "Looks like GA is a very late Q2 or more likely Q3 ordeal." was the most pessimistic in this whole thread. I said the public launch would be Q3 and availability late Q3 to Q4. I cited the timeline of ICL-SP as evidence for how entirely unrealistically optimistic everyone else was being. Then I got hammered for being too pro-Intel in an Intel thread. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I know you still can't buy Ice Lake-SP. Honestly though, 90% of everything on Dell, HP, and Lenovo's sites right now is shipping Aug-Oct. It's frustrating.

My point was simply that the claims of MTL in Q4'23-Q1'24 are, at this point, complete speculation, given Intel's last statement on the matter (and after the 7nm delay) is that they'd ship a year earlier than that.

When will MTL actually ship? Darned if I know. Probably Q1'23 at best. But I feel like if someone is going to assert a full year delay from the official timeline, they should at least justify that claim...

How's this:

We know Alder Lake is H2'21 at the earliest, because Intel only has one day left in H1 at this point. Raptor Lake is the next product which we would expect in H2'22 if Intel is actually going to "Deliver Annual Cadence". That would make Meteor Lake H2'23 if it's next in line and the production schedule doesn't slip.

I took a lot of flak for pointing out this type of thing earlier, but when Bob Swan said that initial production shipments of the first 7nm client CPU would happen in late '22 or early '23, that means to Intel's customers, not to end users. Dollars to donuts it also means mobile, not desktop. Ice Lake and Tiger Lake both reached PRQ in Q2 of their respective launch years, but you couldn't buy a laptop with one of those CPUs until September or October because the sales embargoes didn't lift until then. Even at that point, availability was all over the map because channel fill hadn't been completed following the volume ramp.

So I guess my point is that there is a wide gulf between what an Intel executive means by shipping, which is very clearly defined:

We have consistently used our product development lifecycle and identified PRQ as the point at which our product costs become inventoriable. At PRQ, the product meets Intel's qualification requirements, and is ready for commercial shipment and typically supported by the applicable Intel warranty agreements and customer presentable documentation.

And what the typical person posting on this forum means, which is better summed up by when you can buy a retail-boxed desktop SKU from Newegg and have it delivered within a reasonable amount of time.

If you're not talking about the latter, then yes, Meteor Lake lead die PRQ will probably take place during H1'23, making Bob Swan's statement to investors 100% truthful.