I like your analysis.Warning, there's a lot of assumptions I'm going to be making here:
Assumptions:
Zen 2 IPC = Skylake IPC
Zen 3 IPC = 1.20 Zen 2 IPC
Sunny Cove IPC = 1.20 Skylake IPC
Willow Cove IPC = 1.05 Sunny Cove IPC
Golden Cove IPC = 1.20 WIllow Cove IPC
Gracemont IPC = Skylake IPC
Golden Cove (ADL) All-core = 4.6GHz
Gracemont (ADL) All-core = 3.5 GHz
Zen 3 (5900X) All-core = 4.1 GHz
Zen 3 (5950X) All-core = 3.75 GHz
Alder Lake has a hardware scheduler/Windows scheduler is fixed an optimised for heteregeneous cores. The scheduler does well with balancing Golden Cove and Gracmont Atom cores. (Biggest Assumption right now in my opinion)
Single-threading:
ADL 12900K: 1.20 × 1.05 × 1.00 = 1.260
Zen 3 5900X: 1.20 × 0.96 = 1.152
Zen 3 5950X: 1.20 × 0.98 = 1.176
Multi-threaded:
ADL 12900K: 1.20 × 1.05 × 0.92 × 8 + 0.7 × 8 = 14.87
Zen 3 5900X: 1.20 × 0.82 × 12 = 11.81
Zen 3 5950X: 1.20 × 0.75 × 16 = 14.40
All calculated numbers are relative to a fictional Zen 2/Skylake core at 5 GHz.
By these very crude estimates, Alder Lake might be able to beat Vermeer in both single threaded and multi threaded workloads/benchmarks.
Of course, Zen 4 will be out in 2022 eventually, but that's competing with Raptor Lake, not Alder Lake.
I'll add my own.
I'm assuming a Zen 3 core = 1.0 performance
Golden Cove will be 10% faster than Zen 3, so 1.1
Gracemont will be 70% of Zen 3, or 0.7 (clock taken into account)
So relative to 5950X scoring a "16" 12900 ADL would score 8x1.1 + 8x0.7 = 14.4
So I'm predicting faster than 5900X but slower than 5950X.