Ice free summer arctic in the next 5-10 years, will it change minds and actions?

[xj0hnx]

Except it's not happening slowly. We have seen the arctic sea ice volume drop dramatically over the past 30+ years. So much that it is only a small fraction of what it was. So much so that if it continues in the same way it will only be around 5 years before the ice will be gone in the summer.

I say 5 to 10 years because if something happens to slow down the ice melt it will take longer. If it doesn't happen it will only take slightly longer. But the volume of sea ice is so much smaller than it was 30 years ago, and the pace that it's dropping. We will be ice free very soon. This will cause even more climate change. We won't know for sure what will happen till it gets here but that won't be very long.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GetB-xs9D_A

Whoa, 1979!!! Now that's surely is a comprehensive data set for a planet that is 4.5 Billion years old. How do you know this isn't just part of some 10K year cycle? Or 100K year cycle? Or hell, a 4K year cycle?

 

[davmat787]

Is the OP suggesting that the entire Arctic ice cap will be gone (lol) in five years? If this has been asked/answered in comments already, I apologize, have not read them yet but will as soon as I return in 45 mins.

 

[momeNt]

There really doesn't need to be a proactive solution. The Earth is overpopulated already, massive floods is a lot more humane than a slowly starving population because the arable soil literally can't support the population. Let them melt, let climates adjust, and just feel sorry for those swallowed by the ocean. Gotta die someway right?

 

[Jaskalas]

Whoa, 1979!!! Now that's surely is a comprehensive data set for a planet that is 4.5 Billion years old. How do you know this isn't just part of some 10K year cycle? Or 100K year cycle? Or hell, a 4K year cycle?

In the face of taking action, we cannot act on data we do not yet have, we may only act on the data we do have. Ergo the problem, while we know the earth _may_ very well be warming on its own, the evidence is lacking.

So long as the AMO has not cooled off from its known cycle I will remain skeptical of the man-made component. However once we've past that I would have nothing tangible to work with and must cede the argument until such time as we know better.

 

[Jaskalas]

Is the OP suggesting that the entire Arctic ice cap will be gone (lol) in five years? If this has been asked/answered in comments already, I apologize, have not read them yet but will as soon as I return in 45 mins.

Ice volume and summer minimum extent are his topic of complaint. Pretty clear that 2012 was a record low, and the re-freeze in the winter does not produce thick ice. Volume is lower even though extent is near normal.

 

[LunarRay]

There really doesn't need to be a proactive solution. The Earth is overpopulated already, massive floods is a lot more humane than a slowly starving population because the arable soil literally can't support the population. Let them melt, let climates adjust, and just feel sorry for those swallowed by the ocean. Gotta die someway right?

So much for an universe created just for us, huh?

Sounds to me like you'd favor the likely outcome of all this Climate stuff... evolution by natural selection.

It seems to me that the data is in hand regarding Climate Warming. It also seems to me that the issue is simply how big is the moose sitting at the table... NOT if one is there but how big is it.

Greenland's ice sheet is diminishing. That is factual.
Predictions indicate areas will cool whilst other areas will warm... It appears the issue is something about the overall trend pattern and that points to a general warming.

What happens if it is true? And what happens if we don't do something about it? And what is the probability that some unrelated event will make moot the human climate contribution and that effect on it all...

It seems to me that there are far more dangers that are beyond our ability to control that will render climate warming a minor reality. Earth or some visiting rock figured out how to eliminate all manner of life forms some 60 million years ago all by themselves and within the finite existence of Earth lots of stuff will happen again and again.... We are but a blip on an unstable platform that currently supports our life form...

Build big boats in the meantime or buy land in Colorado.

 

[Thebobo]

I wonder what Jesus would do, about climate change.

 

[LunarRay]

I wonder what Jesus would do, about climate change.

Well.... it seems he'd have known about it all to start with, No? Not having ever seen Jesus or God... I'm not quite sure about all this, "Created in his image" stuff.... You don't suppose that bit was meant for the Kangaroo do you?

 

[Jaskalas]

I wonder what Jesus would do, about climate change.

Same thing he did about being crucified - nothing. Wait, he did forgive them.

 

[LunarRay]

Same thing he did about being crucified - nothing. Wait, he did forgive them.

Yeah... But who got forgiven for providing the Asteroid collisions that killed lots of life forms? But, more to the point.... (I guess) Since humans only provide a bit to the total bad stuff causing Global Warming who gets blamed for the rest of it all? Or forgiven?

 

[Jaskalas]

Date | Arctic ice area
1996.1644 | 13.5241079
2013.1644 | 13.7504234

Winter extent is greater at this time of year than in 1996.
Record low summer extent for 2012, and zero consequence.

If the arctic ocean still re-freezes, then why should we care about sea ice volume?

 

[postmortemIA]

my back still hurts from all the shoveling this winter, and next snow storm is coming tomorrow. Can't wait for that global warming

 

[Whiskey16]

If the arctic ocean still re-freezes, then why should we care about sea ice volume?

Are you going on record for failing to see a change? Or simply discounting any change as inconsequential?

Let's simplify this down to a fundamental that all should be capable of acknowledging:

Sea = white. White reflects.

Open ocean = dark. Dark absorbs.

The albedo effect.

With the trend of lessening presence of summer seasonal ice, we are experiencing a negative feedback effect against that seasonal sea ice (and surviving perennial sea ice), but a positive feedback upon temperature.

A longer period and a greater extent of exposed open ocean permits a much greater absorption of infra-red wavelengths rather than a relatively greater reflection back into the atmosphere. With such greater surface absorption we experience warming over a wider area and for a longer portion of the year.

This not only increases the sea surface temperature, but of that for the neighbouring air.

Now, for anyone in denial of such fundamentals in physics and climatology, well you are in a position to unlikely present a reasonable and rational opinion on this subject.

For everyone to follow, I will present a very simple article:

Diminishing Arctic Albedo Has Larger than Expected Impact on World Climate

21.01.2011 - Atmosphere & Space, Ice & Snow, Arctic

As the ice and snow cover in the Arctic retreats, it reflects significantly less sunlight back into space. And it is reflecting significantly less sunlight than scientists previously estimated, according to a new study in the journal Nature Geoscience. The newly exposed darker ocean and land surface have absorbed more heat, which creates a positive feedback loop, leading to more warming.

Although the albedo of the Arctic was calculated in numerous computer-generated climate models, the new research focused on field measurements and satellite observations rather than on theoretical assumptions. A University of Michigan team measured the ice and snow cover between 1979 and 2008, and found that on average the Arctic reflects 3.3 watts of solar energy per square meter, 0.45 watts less per square meter than three decades ago.

The scientists say point out that Arctic melting is only one of the factors that influence future climate; changes in atmospheric water and clouds can also play an important role. While the entire Earth warmed by about 0.8°C since the Industrial Revolution, Polar Regions experience more warming than any other place on Earth.

 

[Smoblikat]

I left an icecube outside last summer, it melted. HUMANS DID THAT!!!

We need to ban oil, heat, and anything that will melt my ice cubes.

 

[piasabird]

There is an old axiom about icebergs only 1/10 of it is above sea water. I know of a lot of areas where the swamps have been removed or drained off to make farmland and the land has been flattened out to make it more farmable. Even rivers have been straightened out to make them drain better. One thing will happen with more water on the surface. We will have more rain or more ice forming. Could make the northern climates more sever with heavier snow and hurricanes more likely. For instance once the earth starts getting more snow, this will make the winters colder longer in some areas. It will swing back and forth like a pendulum.

 

[piasabird]

All kinds of things cause problems like building large expanses of Roads and Parking lots. Houses cause problems too with drainage from Roofs. Less ground to soak up water. Man can never really control nature.

 

[Greenman]

Buying property in the Arctic is starting to look like a sound investment. Probably some great fishing there.

 

[Jaskalas]

Are you going on record for failing to see a change?

Can you?

Remember, by our own government, there's greater ice extent on this day than in 1996. The difference, minor though it is, is POSITIVE.

1996.1644 | 13.5241079
2013.1644 | 13.7504234

Or simply discounting any change as inconsequential?

I'm talking about ice extent during the winter. However much it melts in the summer, it'll keep refreezing during the winter. I've no problem with that. Don't care if the volume of it is lower if the extent is the same in the winter, because I reckon that should achieve an equilibrial balance at some point.

We are far removed from an ice free Arctic in the winter. So I ask, just why should anyone care about a seasonally ice free Arctic in the summer? You can talk about energy imbalances all you want, I still see ice up there. I'm looking for someone to lay it out.

• If the Arctic is ice free in the summer - what human impacts does that cause?