Ice free summer arctic in the next 5-10 years, will it change minds and actions?

[Paul98]

The arctic will be ice free in the summer in the next 5 or so years. Will this cause a shift in those who don't see the problems with climate change and the roll humans play in it? Will we finally really start to prepare for it's long term effects?

 

[Doppel]

Doesn't much matter.

Regardless of beliefs in cause of this the world in general will do nothing. The US could go 100% wind and it would just mean cheaper oil for China to crank into the atmosphere.

 

[disappoint]

Are you trying to say humans are rolling in it or do you just not know how to spell role?

 

[nehalem256]

The arctic will be ice free in the summer in the next 5 or so years. Will this cause a shift in those who don't see the problems with climate change

A change is not by definition a problem? Why are liberals so afraid of progress?

and the roll humans play in it?

Ice free summers are proof of human's role how exactly?

Will we finally really start to prepare for it's long term effects?

Perhaps Trans-Artic shipping companies?

 

[glenn1]

The arctic will be ice free in the summer in the next 5 or so years. Will this cause a shift in those who don't see the problems with climate change and the roll humans play in it? Will we finally really start to prepare for it's long term effects?

Short answer is no - we're going to continue to purposely ignore the environmentalist fanatics who say it's necessary to destroy our economy in order to save it. The idea that we'll significantly change our economic behaviors is a fantasy pipe dream - we will continue to burn fossil fuel, a lot of it in fact, and people will continue to drive SUVs and other things hated by people screaming "climate change!" Politicians will pass another symbolic small tax (or several) that mainly impacts the poor (e.g. the grocery bag tax) and does absolutely nothing useful. Any politician who even thinks of implementing a carbon tax or anything which imposes real costs on people will be quickly dumped from office.

 

[Matt1970]

The arctic will be ice free in the summer in the next 5 or so years. Will this cause a shift in those who don't see the problems with climate change and the roll humans play in it? Will we finally really start to prepare for it's long term effects?

No. When people are wrong in their predictions they tend to get ignored. Inflating numbers or predictions to help your cause is really shooting yourself in the foot. There are parts below the artic circle that haven't thawed out in over 10,000 years. Now the whole arctic will thaw in 5 years? LOL

 

[Murloc]

1. destroy any esteem through inexcusable misspellings that require people to do multiple parses to understand.
2. cue the righteous grammar nazi
3. make up some excuse that doesn't make sense, insult a user directly and keep doing errors, triple post, insult the forum, more errors, insult the user again
4. ?????
5. PROFIT!

what a winner.



Anyway people have not been preparing for climate change, because we don't know what will happen. Are you preparing for the next ice age?
Why would they worry about whatever variation humans will induce in this process?
It's a slow process, and slowly we will adapt.

 

[Paul98]

A change is not by definition a problem? Why are liberals so afraid of progress?



Ice free summers are proof of human's role how exactly?



Perhaps Trans-Artic shipping companies?

There will be changes both good and bad, and yes it WILL cause problems. Our society is so static and resistant to change that changes in climate causes huge problems.

 

[Murloc]

There will be changes both good and bad, and yes it WILL cause problems. Our society is so static and resistant to change that changes in climate causes huge problems.

in the past, if an area was too cold or dry for crops, people died. People in flourishing areas reproduced more. That's why Finland has a low population, because of their bad climate.
Nowadays, this doesn't happen because there's international help, but the jobs will move to less difficult areas, and the people with it. Capitalism is the new driver of human adaptation.

 

[Paul98]

No. When people are wrong in their predictions they tend to get ignored. Inflating numbers or predictions to help your cause is really shooting yourself in the foot. There are parts below the artic circle that haven't thawed out in over 10,000 years. Now the whole arctic will thaw in 5 years? LOL

Ok so you don't think that the ice will melt in the next 5-10 years. What if it does? Will this change your mind about anything?

 

[Ketchup]

The arctic will be ice free in the summer in the next 5 or so years. Will this cause a shift in those who don't see the problems with climate change and the roll humans play in it? Will we finally really start to prepare for it's long term effects?

Meteorologists often can't tell us what the weather is going to be like tomorrow, so forgive us if we take a five to ten-year outlook with a grain of salt.

 

[Genx87]

The arctic will be ice free in the summer in the next 5 or so years. Will this cause a shift in those who don't see the problems with climate change and the roll humans play in it? Will we finally really start to prepare for it's long term effects?

5-10 years? Why not something more concrete? What happens if it doesnt happen? What happens if it does?

 

[boomerang]

OP, do you know when most of Florida will be under water? That was predicted back in the seventies. I was just wondering if there was a timetable of some sort.

Oh, and this is for you.

 

[Paul98]

what a winner.



Anyway people have not been preparing for climate change, because we don't know what will happen. Are you preparing for the next ice age?
Why would they worry about whatever variation humans will induce in this process?
It's a slow process, and slowly we will adapt.

Except it's not happening slowly. We have seen the arctic sea ice volume drop dramatically over the past 30+ years. So much that it is only a small fraction of what it was. So much so that if it continues in the same way it will only be around 5 years before the ice will be gone in the summer.

 

[Paul98]

5-10 years? Why not something more concrete? What happens if it doesnt happen? What happens if it does?

I say 5 to 10 years because if something happens to slow down the ice melt it will take longer. If it doesn't happen it will only take slightly longer. But the volume of sea ice is so much smaller than it was 30 years ago, and the pace that it's dropping. We will be ice free very soon. This will cause even more climate change. We won't know for sure what will happen till it gets here but that won't be very long.

 

[Genx87]

Except it's not happening slowly. We have seen the arctic sea ice volume drop dramatically over the past 30+ years. So much that it is only a small fraction of what it was. So much so that if it continues in the same way it will only be around 5 years before the ice will be gone in the summer.

Bah my color blindness got me.

 

[ShawnD1]

A change is not by definition a problem? Why are liberals so afraid of progress?

I let my car idle 24/7 because I hate Florida.

Meteorologists often can't tell us what the weather is going to be like tomorrow, so forgive us if we take a five to ten-year outlook with a grain of salt.

Things are easier to predict on longer and larger scales. Example: If 10% of people are black, I can look at a room of 1000 people and say the room likely contains 100 black people. In a group of 5 people, it's very difficult to know how many of them are black because 1 person would be 20% (too many) and 0 people would be 0% (not enough). Both are equally wrong, so I can't say with any certainty.
Simple things like newtonian physics completely fall apart and stop working when looking at a quantum scale.

 

[Paul98]

Meteorologists often can't tell us what the weather is going to be like tomorrow, so forgive us if we take a five to ten-year outlook with a grain of salt.

Weather and climate are two totally diffferent things. Refer to previous post for why we will be ice free in the near future.

 

[Genx87]

I say 5 to 10 years because if something happens to slow down the ice melt it will take longer. If it doesn't happen it will only take slightly longer. But the volume of sea ice is so much smaller than it was 30 years ago, and the pace that it's dropping. We will be ice free very soon. This will cause even more climate change. We won't know for sure what will happen till it gets here but that won't be very long.

Still though. What happens if it does melt? There is a natural cycle to all of this as well. Greenland wasnt named greenland because they decided that is a nice name when it was found.

 

[nehalem256]

I let my car idle 24/7 because I hate Florida.

Things are easier to predict on longer and larger scales. Example: If 10% of people are black, I can look at a room of 1000 people and say the room likely contains 100 black people. In a group of 5 people, it's very difficult to know how many of them are black because 1 person would be 20% (too many) and 0 people would be 0% (not enough). Both are equally wrong, so I can't say with any certainty.
Simple things like newtonian physics completely fall apart and stop working when looking at a quantum scale.

Except even if all the ice in the artic ocean melts permanently Florida won't flood.

 

[Paul98]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GetB-xs9D_A

 

[Paul98]

Still though. What happens if it does melt? There is a natural cycle to all of this as well. Greenland wasnt named greenland because they decided that is a nice name when it was found.

We have to deal with it, with major climate change, with major droughts, or major rain storms. Major weather changes over huge areas.

 

[Avalon]

Bah my color blindness got me.

Yeah I was gonna say...I was looking at the chart and some of the colors were a bit hard to distinguish but it looked like so far 2013 was pretty low and 2012 was the lowest on the charts.

 

[Jaskalas]

• Winter extent is near "normal".
• It has been ice free (in the summer) before.
• Antarctic has been at or above normal ice for some 450+ days and counting.
• Arctic record low mirrors Antarctic record high

So.. what to conclude from all this?

Yes, the arctic ice is melting in the summer more than it did during the 80s, and 90s. 2007 and then 2012 were new record low extents. Could this trend continue while the AMO is warm? Yes. Could it continue after the AMO tuns cold? Yes - though it should be heavily moderated by colder North Atlantic water.

Should we be concerned? No. As much as the ice melts during the summer, ice extent clearly returns during the winter. Yes - there's an argument that it's thinner ice, and that's true, but it's still ice. It can clearly recover any loss in just a few short years. Our satellite / thickness records are only a few decades old, and entirely missed the warm 1930s. We have no comparison to any other warm period - aside from the fact that we know the arctic ocean has been ice free in other periods as well.

Current global temperatures have stalled, so all of this is a result of the warming during the 80s and 90s. That's it, we clearly passed the tipping point for stable arctic summer ice two decades ago. It takes time for an ice mass that big to melt.

Also... why isn't the south pole feeling the effects? It has risen in ice extent over the satellite record, and keeps performing better and better in recent years. From 450+ days above average to all time record ice extent last year. Interesting that the Arctic record low mirrors the Antarctic record high, as if there was some natural cycle between the two we don't fully appreciate. To think higher global temperatures cause only one half to melt would be absurdity.

Sit back and relax, the Arctic summer extent won't make much difference. Even if everything you believe is true, about CO2, rising temperatures, deadly consequence, there is absolutely nothing you can do while the developing world continues to develop. China in particular, if not struck by a nuclear holocaust, would fuel AGW all by itself. Essentially, the problem is out of our hands.

 

[Paul98]

This ice melt won't cause the sea level to rise much other than the thermal expansion. But it will cause the oceans to warm even more. It's the land ice that is the worry when talking about sea level rise.