Ice free summer arctic in the next 5-10 years, will it change minds and actions?

[Midwayman]

Except even if all the ice in the artic ocean melts permanently Florida won't flood.

Crap. How do we get rid of Florida then?

 

[Jaskalas]

Crap. How do we get rid of Florida then?

To raise the ocean level, you must melt Greenland or Antarctica. The ice masses that cover land and do not contribute to ocean level unless they melt.

 

[ShawnD1]

Except even if all the ice in the artic ocean melts permanently Florida won't flood.

Try to remember that much of the ice at the poles is above sea level. Think of it like stacking ice cubes. You can have 10 inches of ice cubes stacked on top of each other, but it melts to form maybe a 1 inch high pool of water in the container holding the ice cubes. All it takes is something like a meter of sea level rise to sink much of the coast.

 

[ShawnD1]

Crap. How do we get rid of Florida then?

Did anyone else realize that global warming and finally destroying Florida might fix the problem of US elections? All the other states have their shit together, but Florida continually screws everything up. Counting ballots is hard because people in that state find it hard to count past 20 (or 19 if they are missing a finger)

 

[Londo_Jowo]

The arctic sea ice been receding over the past couple decades yet the antarctic sea ice has been increasing during the same time frame.

Could the be due to a slight axis change or global warming/climate change, or a combination of the two?

How much is natural and how is due to humans?

 

[IGBT]

but..but..what about the global warming on Mars and ALL the other planets?? They deserve YOUR attention too!!

 

[zsdersw]

 

[Jaskalas]

Ice free summer arctic in the next 5-10 years, will it change minds and actions?

Arctic Ice is the wrong thing to hang your hat on. There is legitmate reason to think it could melt all on its own.

If the global temperature continues to set new records through the end of the 2010-2020 decade, with no sign of a downward slop at the end, then we have cause for concern. The PDO turning cold should have some effect. Even more - if the AMO turns cold and we do not see a drop in temperature - I would concede the topic of AGW for my logical points of natural variability would have been tested and proven false.

There would STILL remain the very plausible explanation that we're supposed to keep rising in temperature as we exit the Little Ice Age, but that point has no means to argue in its favor.

Today I still have cause to argue in favor of the ocean cycles, a decade from now that will be proven one way or another.

 

[Paul98]

• Winter extent is near "normal".

• 
  
  That is sea ice extent, the ice volume is hugely below "normal". That is simply the ice on the water and it along with much more will melt over the summer. You can just look at the video I linked to which shows how much ice has been lost.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  [*]It has been ice free (in the summer) before.

  
  of course the arctic has had less and more ice before, and really reinforces this argument. We have already seen major natural changes cause changes in climate which have had a huge impact on humans.
  
  

  [*]Antarctic has been at or above normal ice for some 450+ days and counting.
  [*]Arctic record low mirrors Antarctic record high

So.. what to conclude from all this?

Yes, the arctic ice is melting in the summer more than it did during the 80s, and 90s. 2007 and then 2012 were new record low extents. Could this trend continue while the AMO is warm? Yes. Could it continue after the AMO tuns cold? Yes - though it should be heavily moderated by colder North Atlantic water.

Should we be concerned? No. As much as the ice melts during the summer, ice extent clearly returns during the winter. Yes - there's an argument that it's thinner ice, and that's true, but it's still ice. It can clearly recover any loss in just a few short years. Our satellite / thickness records are only a few decades old, and entirely missed the warm 1930s. We have no comparison to any other warm period - aside from the fact that we know the arctic ocean has been ice free in other periods as well.

Current global temperatures have stalled, so all of this is a result of the warming during the 80s and 90s. That's it, we clearly passed the tipping point for stable arctic summer ice two decades ago. It takes time for an ice mass that big to melt.

Also... why isn't the south pole feeling the effects? It has risen in ice extent over the satellite record, and keeps performing better and better in recent years. From 450+ days above average to all time record ice extent last year. Interesting that the Arctic record low mirrors the Antarctic record high, as if there was some natural cycle between the two we don't fully appreciate. To think higher global temperatures cause only one half to melt would be absurdity.

Sit back and relax, the Arctic summer extent won't make much difference. Even if everything you believe is true, about CO2, rising temperatures, deadly consequence, there is absolutely nothing you can do while the developing world continues to develop. China in particular, if not struck by a nuclear holocaust, would fuel AGW all by itself. Essentially, the problem is out of our hands.

Except the ice isn't returning in the winter, in fact the arctic ice volume in the winter of 2012 is closing in on where it was in the summer 30 years ago. If the trend continues it will drop below that in near future.

Even if you don't do anything to stop these changes you will need to adjust and adapt to these changes in climate. This will cause many big problems, and hopefully being about some good changes as well.

Please just look at those simple ice volume graphs they tell a totally different story than what you are trying to spin.

 

[Paul98]

http://video.pbs.org/video/2334144059

an interesting video about observing the earth from space, with a lot of info on weather and how the antarctic is able to keep it's cool. Along with how the climate in one place can effect another on the other side of th world.

 

[Jaskalas]

I did acknowledge low ice thickness / volume. Although the thick ice hasn't just melted during low summer extent, it has also been blown out into the Atlantic during the winters between 1988 and 1996.

Moreover, what does it matter if the Arctic ice is thick or not? The winter extent still appears relatively stable - in fact the Alaskan side, coinciding with the negative PDO had record extent last year. I expect the AMO to have a similar effect on the Atlantic side.

So if the ice melts in the summer, and returns in the winter - what difference does it make? It may not be thick multiyear ice, but what impact does the loss of that really have - and is its loss even due to temperature?

 

[nehalem256]

Try to remember that much of the ice at the poles is above sea level. Think of it like stacking ice cubes. You can have 10 inches of ice cubes stacked on top of each other, but it melts to form maybe a 1 inch high pool of water in the container holding the ice cubes. All it takes is something like a meter of sea level rise to sink much of the coast.

I believe you are referring to the South Pole.

The pole which according to the IPCC is GAINING ice.

 

[Paratus]

The arctic sea ice been receding over the past couple decades yet the antarctic sea ice has been increasing during the same time frame.

Could the be due to a slight axis change or global warming/climate change, or a combination of the two?

How much is natural and how is due to humans?

There's been no unexpected change in axial tilt. If there had been the orbital tracks and time over ground sites of all orbiting satellites would have changed.

The thing to remember here is climate change is being drive by an excess of energy. That heat drives the climate and can change weather patterns to move both warm and cold air masses around.

In this case it looks like more heat is making it to the artic and less to the Antarctic.

 

[Paul98]

I did acknowledge low ice thickness / volume. Although the thick ice hasn't just melted during low summer extent, it has also been blown out into the Atlantic during the winters between 1988 and 1996.

Moreover, what does it matter if the Arctic ice is thick or not? The winter extent still appears relatively stable - in fact the Alaskan side, coinciding with the negative PDO had record extent last year. I expect the AMO to have a similar effect on the Atlantic side.

So if the ice melts in the summer, and returns in the winter - what difference does it make? It may not be thick multiyear ice, but what impact does the loss of that really have - and is its loss even due to temperature?

Yes this loss is due to temperature of both the air and the ocean. This should cause the ocean to warm up even more as there won't be the ice there in the summer to cool it down. We will end up with even more climate change.

 

[Jaskalas]

Yes this loss is due to temperature of both the air and the ocean.

Maybe it should be addressed more clearly then, I'll post the animation straight into the topic. A lot of the thick ice was blown south into the North Atlantic where it melted.
That's not arctic temperature, that's wind pattern.

 

[Paul98]

What is going to be interesting is to see what happens after the first ice free summer. Both to the weather and winter ice.

 

[Paul98]

Maybe it should be addressed more clearly then, I'll post the animation straight into the topic. A lot of the thick ice was blown south into the North Atlantic where it melted.
That's not arctic temperature, that's wind pattern.

Wind and weather is another factor in the ice loss rather than just temperatures in the region. There are lots of factors in the temperature and weather in the region. But to say that temperature has nothing to do with it is incorrect.

 

[Jaskalas]

What is going to be interesting is to see what happens after the first ice free summer. Both to the weather and winter ice.

What is going to be interesting to see is what happens after the AMO turns cold. If winter extent returns to normal on the Atlantic side, as it already has on the Pacific side. Then who knows, maybe summer ice extent can begin to pick up, and volume along with it.

 

[EagleKeeper]

I am glad to see this place keep keeping it classy, why did I even bother posting in this trollinfested shit fest

Your OP was good - your attitude afterwards needs adjustment


EK
Admin

 

[Paul98]

What is going to be interesting to see is what happens after the AMO turns cold. If winter extent returns to normal on the Atlantic side, as it already has on the Pacific side. Then who knows, maybe summer ice extent can begin to pick up, and volume along with it.

We can hope, but I am not holding my breath. The trend doesn't look to be changing, looks like we will just keep on seeing the volume drop like it has for the past 30 years.

 

[PokerGuy]

Even if we assume for a second that the prediction regarding the ice is true, I've yet to see any proposal for a solution that anyone thinks would have any real impact. Every idea to "fix" the problem involves giving your money to government to waste and giving further control to eco kooks to decide what you should do.

 

[piasabird]

What are we going to do about this exactly??? You have pointed to a problem. I suggest you sell your car and buy a bicycle. While you are at it go buy some solar panels and live off grid.

 

[piasabird]

You might consider selling your land in Florida. Florida is little more than a swamp.

 

[piasabird]

It will just rain more and fill in the low places Lots of areas on the earth are capable of holding more water. Lets dredge up the ocean and build up land higher. Lets see more rain clouds may cause more snow storms and glaciers will grow larger so places further north may become covered with ice and snow and it will not melt as fast.

 

[Jaskalas]

What are we going to do about this exactly??? You have pointed to a problem. I suggest you sell your car and buy a bicycle. While you are at it go buy some solar panels and live off grid.

What ARE we going to do? If the rest of the planet ceased to exist, China alone would dominate "Climate Change".

Meanwhile, thanks to natural gas, US CO2 emissions are the lowest in 20 years.