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Hurricane Matthew's track changed, for the WORSE!

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They don't know crap. Two days ago, most of the models had it very far east of FL, with one even saying it would take a hard right and fizzle out totally over the Atlantic. Before that when it was first due north of Columbia, a few models had it going into the Gulf of Mexico. At this point it seems like more of a pseudo science than something they can actually accurately predict with a reasonable confidence.

Now one model on weather.com shows it going directly over FL/GA and ending up going through Central NY state. Wtf?
 
z1ggy said:
They don't know crap. Two days ago, most of the models had it very far east of FL, with one even saying it would take a hard right and fizzle out totally over the Atlantic. Before that when it was first due north of Columbia, a few models had it going into the Gulf of Mexico. At this point it seems like more of a pseudo science than something they can actually accurately predict with a reasonable confidence.

Now one model on weather.com shows it going directly over FL/GA and ending up going through Central NY state. Wtf?
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It's not quite pseudo-science, they're actually remarkably accurate. Most of the time they're right on, the last one that passed near me was Hermine which did a loop and a buttonhook off the coast of Long Island and they had that track predicted almost perfectly a week in advance. That's why this one is really weird, with some models predicting an almost 90* turn west and others almost a 90* turn east Matthew is 1 in 100 for how unpredictable it seems.
 
bigboxes said:
When I was in the Navy, I was deployed to Miami in 1992 for the Hurricane Andrew relief effort. Hope it misses you guys. If not, at least not a direct hit. Had a buddy move to Miami last week. Talked to him yesterday and asked him about Matthew. He had no clue. Said nobody was talking about it. I was like, "Cat 5 Hurricane". The Navy pretty much evacuated all non-essential personnel and all their aircraft from Guantanamo Bay to Jacksonville.
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I was in Mayport from 97 to 2000. Had to expedite a short notice cruise at least 4 times that I recall.
 
GagHalfrunt said:
It's not quite pseudo-science, they're actually remarkably accurate. Most of the time they're right on, the last one that passed near me was Hermine which did a loop and a buttonhook off the coast of Long Island and they had that track predicted almost perfectly a week in advance. That's why this one is really weird, with some models predicting an almost 90* turn west and others almost a 90* turn east Matthew is 1 in 100 for how unpredictable it seems.
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I don't ever expect them to be 100% correct, but modern weather prediction can predict daily temperatures down to the degree like 5 days in advance, but we don't know which way a hurricane will generally go, 24 hours in advance? Seems kind of crazy to me.

Either way, doesn't look good for anybody within about 100-200 miles of the atlantic ocean.
 
GagHalfrunt said:
I'm worried about Matthew and I'm way up yonder in New England. The spaghetti models are all over the place on this one, some have it moving directly west for a direct hit on Florida and some directly east and out to sea after only grazing North Carolina. But other than those outliers about half of the models have it moving directly up the coast for a direct impact on NYC area and the other half have it shifting east towards Cape Cod. Every hour the project track changes wildly.
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Yup, and that's the issue with trying to forecast the movement of such a large system with the fact that it's moving so slowly, I'm heading out now to get my jerry-jugs filled and some groceries.
 
shortylickens said:
I was in Mayport from 97 to 2000. Had to expedite a short notice cruise at least 4 times that I recall.
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I was stationed in Norfolk from 1992-1996. Stationed on a supply ship. Made sense to send us. Volunteered for various community projects when off duty.
 
BUTCH1 said:
Yup, and that's the issue with trying to forecast the movement of such a large system with the fact that it's moving so slowly, I'm heading out now to get my jerry-jugs filled and some groceries.
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Need to get a couple bags of charcoal for just in case. We usually have a few around but haven't been buying ahead lately, we have water, batteries, canned food stocked up for at least a week normally.

My grandmother told me when I first moved to the area decades ago to fill up your bathtubs prior to a hurricane, is good for just extra water for non drinking etc. Could boil or chlorinate it later if you had to.
 
highland145 said:
Half of S.C. is now under a state of emergency and public schools are closed starting tomorrow.

Pack up, Hugh.
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Yea, I know at the very least we will see hurricane-force winds here, it just depends how far the eye stays offshore, it could actually hit any part of the FL east coast, 25 miles is MIGHTY thin margin, but if that holds true the eye will remain over the record-high temp gulf stream and hit SC as a cat 3 or 4.
 
highland145 said:
Half of S.C. is now under a state of emergency and public schools are closed starting tomorrow.

Pack up, Hugh.
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That seems stupid. Schools are open here tomorrow in south Florida but closed on Thursday. This storm isn't hitting South Carolina tomorrow.
 
MongGrel said:
It does seem to a bit jumping the gun in SC to me.

But who knows.
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Having lived in Florida for a good decade previously, would you rather have everyone exiting in a mass panic like Independence Day? Because that's always what ends up happening. We didn't have to evacuate very often (mid-state), but we always tried to get the jump on things & find a hotel so we wouldn't be sitting in traffic forever.
 
rh71 said:
Meh, it's actually kind of exciting. That is until your roof starts to rip off. Nothing really happens too badly around here. Some get flooded and that's about it.
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It's the whole losing your house part that I would not like and the potential bodily harm from vehicles and other debris being thrown around. And since hurricanes are usually followed by floods, sheltering in the basement may not be viable either.
 
Matthew is being bump steered by Nicole which didn't exist a couple of days ago. There's also another tropical disturbance below her that can also add to the influence in the region. I surely hope that we don't end up without power for days on end in my neck of the woods after this.
 
Duval county just went under a hurricane watch a few minutes ago. It's been raining since yesterday so the ground is already soaked before the main event arrives.
 
Ughh... this is what happens when it's been 10+ years since a hurricane comes through. Tried to get gas this morning at 5:30 a.m. and there is none to be found. Saw 1 - 2 stations with gas that had lines of 75+ cars waiting. fuck... that... shit.

If we lose power for an extended time I have a chainsaw, lots of guns, and the willpower to get us somewhere with air conditioning.
 
But, I have fish oil in my fridge. I don't want them to go bad.

I'm scared guys. Someone tell me it's gonna be ok? 🙁
 
When Hugo came through Charleston in the late 80's it was a cluster. They reversed the incoming lanes way to late. Haley said there are 1M peeps to evacuate and that takes time so I understand the early start. Better safe than dead. Thankfully my kid goes to private school and he won't be getting any days off. :biggrin: The public schools are closed so they can be shelters.

Jeeebus said:
Ughh... this is what happens when it's been 10+ years since a hurricane comes through. Tried to get gas this morning at 5:30 a.m. and there is none to be found. Saw 1 - 2 stations with gas that had lines of 75+ cars waiting. fuck... that... shit.

If we lose power for an extended time I have a chainsaw, lots of guns, and the willpower to get us somewhere with air conditioning.
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For a nominal fee.....Hotel Highland is open. The wife will be out of town til Sunday. I'll provide the beer.

I did fill up the spare gas can last night for the generator. No lines, no wait. The current report looks like we might get 1". I'm next to Augusta, GA.
 
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