All fun and games aside, it sounds like there is a huge business opportunity in NC assuming NC doesn't have some state laws/regulations in place killing competition for BCBS.
Even though you don't paint the issue as black and white, it's still a lot grayer than you think. I'm speaking from experience here.
I don't believe that the lack of insurers on an exchange can be viewed as a "business opportunity", even with the allowance that there may be outside factors, such as state laws, dampening entry. The reason many insurers are avoiding the exchanges is they've done the game theory and the risks of losing money far outweight the potential for gain. The widely held belief is that those seeking coverage on the exchanges are going to be the riskiest, most costly demographics and there's no guarantee the "young invincibles" will buy in. That's a recipe for losing money. Sure there's the "3 Rs" programs (reinsurance, risk adjustment, and risk corridors) but
nobody actually knows if they will work. Given that insurer solvency is such a huge issue in the regulatory world, very few insurers are willing to game their solvency (and the resultant receivership) on the hope that the exchanges will work. It could be several years before there's enough market stability to encourage new entrants.
Here in Nevada, we have 4 insurers offering on our exchange. That sounds like a good number until you break it down:
1 insurer is a CO-OP, which is legally required to offer on the exchange
2 insurers are the Medicaid MCO providers, which have to offer on the exchange per their Medicaid contracts
1 insurer is voluntarily on the exchange
We have 12 insurers offering off the exchange. That's a 3:1 ratio that could easily be 6:1 or 12:1 without outside forces.
Even with 4 insurers on the exchange none of them were willing to offer in the rural areas of the state. It took some negotiating to make that happen.
I guess what I'm saying is that, rightly or not, insurers view these exchanges as inherently risky and evaluation of items can't be done in a CNN-like "GOOD OR BAD?!?" vacuum.