If Bush continues to swing to the middle, then I see him having a legitimate shot 3 1/2 years from now.
Can foriegn policy survive that time? I don't know.
Bush is backpeddeling on many of his far right Republican priorities, which is good for the US and the world. If the rest of the world weren't ridiculing him (and us) for Kyoto, death penalties, and missle defenses, there would be no moderation what-so-ever, and that would be bad for everyone.
Republicans fool themselves into thinking that they were given a mandate in the last election, even though they received fewer votes in the Senate, Congress, and Oval Office. They think that the country is swinging right, along with them. They are mistaken. Screw this up, and expect a left-swinging backlash in 2 years, and then again in the 2004 election.
If Bush is smart, he will stay away from the far right. Else, like father like son. Single term president.