Ding. Rather than argue with CW over this point, I will simply underscore Moonie on this. For the
layperson, relying on majority expert opinion is the only logical course. The confusion arises in distinguishing the perspective of the layperson from that of someone with expertise. The person of expertise must ignore the "consensus" and form his or her opinion independently. That is what we rely on experts to do. If it were otherwise, a "consensus" at any given moment in time would be self-perpetuating as every expert would simply follow that consensus. But for the layperson, there is nothing to do but follow the consesus and assume it is *likely* correct. It's only a fallacy if the expert consensus is posed as infallible truth rather than probabalistic assumption. The consensus is simply the layperson's "best bet."
Wiki explains nicely when it is a fallacy and when it is not:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
"Infallibility" only arises as a matter of formal logic, i.e. in a logical syllogism where things are asserted as absolutes. To the layperson, there is no shame in recognizing one's own relative ignorance, and arguing that the consensus of experts is our best bet, but remaining open minded should that consensus change.
In a perfect world, everyone would be an "expert" on everything, but this obviously isn't a perfect world. Perhaps some of us could do well in not pretending to be experts in things they are not? Just a humble suggestion...
That is what guides my view on global warming, economics, and a whole host of other issues.
- wolf