GOP Debate live - 1-14-16

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Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Honest question, does this country need more people? What good does it do for us?
Immigration policy is a form of economic competition between countries that promotes peace and freedom. By being a prosperous and free nation, we can encourage brains and talent from other (less free) nations to come live with us, where their contributions further increase our prosperity and freedom.
Look at the best investors, scientists, businessmen, statesmen, etc, both past and present, and you will see a larger percentage of immigrants and children of immigrants among them than compared to society at large.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
I'm confident that I'm more American, and that I love America more, than you, asshole.
But then you do everything you can do to not support them. Including hating on "nativists" (you know, the Americans who care more about Americans than you do) because they might hurt somebody's feelings.


People like you only think about the cost of deportation, or building a stronger border. You don't think about the cost of education, social services, welfare, wage cuts, more welfare from wage cuts...etc


It is like off shoring. Sure, Wal mart did great, but now even the people who work at Wal mart can't afford to buy the cheap Chinese shit. Why? Because wages have been suppressed by off shoring and illegals. So who bears that cost? Taxpayers. That cost is embedded in the cost of the goods sold. Just like the cost of keeping illegals is embedded in the suppressed wages, social services and everything else for the entire country.

Your race to the bottom has hit rock bottom. Wal mart is closing stores and laying off thousands. You're welcome to your own shit pie.
 
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Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
But then you do everything you can do to not support them. Including hating on "nativists" (you know, the Americans who care more about Americans than you do) because they might hurt somebody's feelings.

I'm not worried about hurting anyone's feelings. Far fucking from it.
Nativists just want protection from foreign competition from the government. Which I wasn't surprised to see Trump get tariffs as well. Such policies are anti-free market and expensive. IOW, Nativists just want 'free stuff' too.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,823
33,851
136
So...do nothing?

I'm all for Superfund style liability (strict, joint, and several) for employers of illegals. You get busted for hiring illegals? Here's the bill for all the social costs (hospital, incarceration, education, etc.) incurred addressing illegals in your county for the time period you employed one. Don't want to pay the whole bill yourself? Better find other violators and spread the love.

That, plus fining the crap out of the employers.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
I am not in that camp. There are great jobs out there that don't require college, particularly in the skilled trades. However, the jobs that have been exported are mostly the same ones that would have otherwise been replaced by automation.

I'm a controls engineer.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,288
136
So...do nothing?

From my understanding your argument is that we should reduce immigration due to its negative effects on wages and employment. The data on this is mixed at best, with quite a number of studies showing no effect. So yeah, if you want to limit immigration due to something that isn't happening then of course you shouldn't do it.

You have to remember that Trump's understanding of economics is pretty poor. People sometimes mistake being good at business with an understanding of economics when the two things are hugely different.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
I'm not worried about hurting anyone's feelings. Far fucking from it.
Nativists just want protection from foreign competition from the government. Which I wasn't surprised to see Trump get tariffs as well. Such policies are anti-free market and expensive. IOW, Nativists just want 'free stuff' too.
There is no fucking free market. Get that through your goddamned head. China isn't a free market. They suppressed their currency for a fucking decade to manipulate our "free market". They steal our ip, do not allow our goods in, take what they want and leave the rest. Just like Japan did 30 years ago.

Yet you sit here thinking this shit is gummy bears, unicorns, and rainbows.

You are such a fucking cuckold.
 
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shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
I'm not worried about hurting anyone's feelings. Far fucking from it.
Nativists just want protection from foreign competition from the government. Which I wasn't surprised to see Trump get tariffs as well. Such policies are anti-free market and expensive. IOW, Nativists just want 'free stuff' too.

So you think it's ok for China to levy tariffs and enact regulatory barriers against US goods, but we can't reciprocate?

Or did you not catch that part of Trumps argument?

Edit : His argument in a nutshell is, if China doesn't remove those tariffs and barriers, we put ours up.

Our export to China is pathetic, despite the US being the 2nd largest manufacturer in the world. And I'd bet that China cares a hell of a lot more about their food costs than we care about how much our big screen TVs cost.
 
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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
From my understanding your argument is that we should reduce immigration due to its negative effects on wages and employment. The data on this is mixed at best, with quite a number of studies showing no effect. So yeah, if you want to limit immigration due to something that isn't happening then of course you shouldn't do it.

You have to remember that Trump's understanding of economics is pretty poor. People sometimes mistake being good at business with an understanding of economics when the two things are hugely different.
And there is plenty of evidence it does. Like simple logic of more supply and same demand = lower wages. Or a captive workforce beholden to the threat of deportation = lower wages.

Ask any manual labor contractor about competition from employers who hire illegals. Ask roofers, deck builders, cement companies, landscapers, framers, drywallers, painters...

All of those are good skilled labor jobs that somebody can learn. It might make houses more expensive but it would help Americans and build a positive feedback loop.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,288
136
And there is plenty of evidence it does. Like simple logic of more supply and same demand = lower wages. Or a captive workforce beholden to the threat of deportation = lower wages.

Ask any manual labor contractor about competition from employers who hire illegals. Ask roofers, deck builders, cement companies, landscapers, framers, drywallers, painters...

Sorry but blanket statements of principles and anecdotes don't match up against actual empirical research on the topic.

Even if the actual research on that topic didn't generally come down on the side of no effect (or even positive effect!) your logic doesn't hold. When you increase the number of people in the area, demand for goods and services also increases, which translates into greater demand for labor. Saying that demand for labor would remain static is just wrong.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
Screen-Shot-2015-04-23-at-3.23.35-PM-e1429817123969.png


This chart only goes to 2010. We're at or above the 1920s high as a percentage of population being immigrants now, close to 15%.

ja3VPIQ.png
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
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Walmart is closing a relatively small percentage of its stores because of competition from Amazon and because its Neighborhood Market concept was a disastrous failure.
That decision has nothing to do with immigration policy, nor have any layoffs numbers been announced.
 

Subyman

Moderator <br> VC&G Forum
Mar 18, 2005
7,876
32
86
Honest question, does this country need more people? What good does it do for us?

From an academic stand point, more labor contributes to more productivity. Increasing one's population is a direct way to increase economic might, with caveats. China recently relaxed its on-child policy in part because of this issue. The balance is to keep or increase the quality of life per capita while integrating more people. It is a highly complex issue, but if the conditions are right, more is better. Diverse immigration can also open new markets as well.
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
You guys realize that the actual empirical evidence for immigration suppressing wages is mixed at best, right?
If there are more people willing and able to do a certain job then this will naturally drive down prices of that labor. This is simple economics.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,288
136
If there are more people willing and able to do a certain job then this will naturally drive down prices of that labor. This is simple economics.

And those people create demand of their own for goods and services, which requires more people to be hired to provide them, which drives up the price of that labor.

If you're going to call something 'simple' you should probably be sure you haven't fucked it up. lol.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
And those people create demand of their own for goods and services, which requires more people to be hired to provide them, which drives up the price of that labor.

If you're going to call something 'simple' you should probably be sure you haven't fucked it up. lol.


Yeah that's how this happened. I'm sure you're going to explain it away but it really is simple. There's a level of immigration that's needed, and there's a level that keeps the plebes down.

Screen-Shot-2015-04-23-at-3.23.35-PM-e1429817123969.png
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,288
136
Yeah that's how this happened. I'm sure you're going to explain it away but it really is simple. There's a level of immigration that's needed, and there's a level that keeps the plebes down.

Screen-Shot-2015-04-23-at-3.23.35-PM-e1429817123969.png

Now I'm sure you're going to explain it away but I'll take your ineptly conceived excel chart from a right wing website and raise you a comprehensive review of actual empirical research into the effects of immigration on wages.

Here's the relevant conclusion:

http://www.nber.org/papers/w18515.pdf
While some studies do find important effects, overall, it seems to us that most research does not find quantitatively important effects of immigration on native wage levels or the wage distribution.

Although all of the research does not agree that there is no effect, that's the general consensus. Sorry, the evidence does not support your conclusion.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,508
17,002
136
Yeah that's how this happened. I'm sure you're going to explain it away but it really is simple. There's a level of immigration that's needed, and there's a level that keeps the plebes down.

Screen-Shot-2015-04-23-at-3.23.35-PM-e1429817123969.png

Well we've had many mass immigrations in this country, including a few million illegal immigrants made legal by President Reagan. Surely you have conclusive data that will show the relationship between wages and immigration that price your claim?

I'll be honest, I've searched for data that made the opposite claim and I couldn't find data that supported either view.

The same can be said for taxes, they have a minimal effect of any on the overall economy.
 
Nov 25, 2013
32,083
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So you think it's ok for China to levy tariffs and enact regulatory barriers against US goods, but we can't reciprocate?

Or did you not catch that part of Trumps argument?

Edit : His argument in a nutshell is, if China doesn't remove those tariffs and barriers, we put ours up.

Our export to China is pathetic, despite the US being the 2nd largest manufacturer in the world. And I'd bet that China cares a hell of a lot more about their food costs than we care about how much our big screen TVs cost.

China is your 3rd largest export market after Canada and Mexico. You sell the Chinese over $120 billion dollars in goods and services/year. You consider that pathetic?
 

Subyman

Moderator <br> VC&G Forum
Mar 18, 2005
7,876
32
86
Yeah that's how this happened. I'm sure you're going to explain it away but it really is simple. There's a level of immigration that's needed, and there's a level that keeps the plebes down.

Screen-Shot-2015-04-23-at-3.23.35-PM-e1429817123969.png

Those 10M immigrants would need to have sucked away $156k per fully employed immigrant worth of value out of the US labor force to account for that loss in wages. I think it may not be the correct causation there.
 

mrjminer

Platinum Member
Dec 2, 2005
2,739
16
76
Cruz made a stupid comment from a political standpoint with the "New York values," but he obviously isn't wrong, and it's obvious he meant New York is like left-wing central. New York has gone to Democrats since 1984, and in 84' it was Reagan vs. fucking Water Mondale (ROFL) and 80' it was Reagan vs Carter (another ROFL, just not as much as 84'). Trump's WTC comments were a cheap ploy after that, IMO.

Trump I felt was the weakest on the stage when considering his poll numbers (the real weakest was obviously Carson). His tariff idea is correct, but he failed to relate it to the common man. He simply could have said that the increase in cost of goods from China would force us to pay more for goods from China, but would simultaneously put US goods comparatively cheaper to imported Chinese goods than they are currently. Additionally, with the cost being more competitive, manufacturing would have a shot at coming back. That would have went over well, but he didn't seem to find the words to say it. I also found his WTC comments distasteful overall as someone not from New York, and I think any person from New York (or anywhere) with a brain would see it as a cheap trick, too.

Bush did well on a his first couple of responses, but he started floundering a bit, then came back a bit toward the end. The biggest issue I took with Bush is that he seemed to reference the military as nation building after defeating the enemy, whereas I am a firm believer that the military has the sole purpose of destroying our enemies. The nation building should be left to other entities. Otherwise, I think Bush at least alluded to having some actual strategies the Middle East, where no other candidate gave any sort of hint at having even thought of any strategies at all.

Most surprisingly, I thought Kasich did an excellent job until it got to the point of illegal immigration / asylum. He sounded weak on immigration, and that was the main issue I had with him in his responses. Further, his directing the "US citizens would pay more" to Trump's tariff strategy made me wonder if he actually knows anything about economics; I think my above note on Trump's response would be easy to understand, and I think it made Kasich look like an idiot to even ask the question. Trump failing to appropriately respond was pretty much sheer luck on his part. His first few comments of the debate were great, though.

Rubio seemed a little weak; he didn't really explain anything, just made a few declarations about how when he is President -- and he seemed to be repetitive with them. Noticed, as well, Rubio's phrasing of "radical jihadist," which pretty much reinforces my belief that Rubio can't be trusted.

Carson was a joke. I will be surprised if he is still around for the next debate.

Christie got called out by Rubio, then lied about it convincingly*. I don't remember much else about what he said, though.

Overall, the only two candidates that gave any sort of decent explanation or examples of what they would do that I remember were Kasich (on economy) and Bush (on military). I guess you could count Carson's terrible explanation of simultaneous attacks, but I wouldn't call that a decent explanation, or really relevant to any sort of "real" strategy. There wasn't a lot else of substance overall, I felt.

This was the first debate I've ever watched and I was disappointed. I was expecting people to be giving some sort of detailed plans and strategies, so I guess I'll have to just stick to reading about them in the future since these debates don't seem to be the place that happens.
 
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MongGrel

Lifer
Dec 3, 2013
38,466
3,067
121
I'm a controls engineer.

That explains a lot right there.

Just another guy that is probably overpaid to look at bar charts more or less these days, without really knowing much about manufacturing processes in reality.
 
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shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
Those 10M immigrants would need to have sucked away $156k per fully employed immigrant worth of value out of the US labor force to account for that loss in wages. I think it may not be the correct causation there.

If that's how you determine causation, that's fine.

Correct your math though. 11M is the estimated number of illegal immigrants.

There are 42.2M immigrants, total. That's what that chart is showing.

http://cis.org/Immigrant-Population-Hits-Record-Second-Quarter-2015

pop-q2-f1.png



Also on raw cost :


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econo...alth_due_to_contribution_to_population_growth


As recognized in a World Bank report,[55] population growth has a deteriorating effect on per-capita wealth. Quantitatively, it introduces "a Malthusian term" in calculations of changes in per-capita wealth with time. Wealth includes public as well as private wealth. A water reservoir, or a highway for automobiles, for example, has a per-capita value that diminishes as the number of people using it increases, unless the reservoir or highway is enlarged (which has costs, including environmental ones that may be hard to measure). As of 2012, net immigration, including both legal and illegal immigration, constitutes more than 25 percent of US population growth.[56]
...
PEW studies on unauthorized immigrants estimates that the average household of 3.1 persons earns about $36,000 per year. This average wage is consistent with about the PEW estimate of 49% of illegal immigrants not having graduated from any kind of high school.[65]
The Congressional Budget office (CBO) estimates that people in this salary bracket (the second quintile) pay about 6.8% of their income in Federal taxes.[66]
The Heritage Foundation estimates that the average household in the bottom quintile received $29,015 in benefits and paid $4,251 in Federal, state and local taxes.