Originally posted by: chizow
Originally posted by: JoshGuru7
This statement is precisely where I believe you abandon rationality. How does saying something cause it to be true? These are people with heavy incentives towards bias speculating on the issue of PC game piracy. I wouldn't be impartial in their positions and I doubt you would either.
Again, you can argue with the
rationale of the decision, but the fact remains, they cite piracy as the
basis of their decision. How is this hard to understand? You don't have to agree with their decision, you might not even agree with how they come to that decision, but the fact is, leading devs and publishers are in fact citing piracy as the main reason for shifting focus away from the PC to consoles.
You like to link to articles that do not resolve this point in any manner, so I'll point out my concern regarding the TG article you linked as an example.
They absolutely resolve the point by showing Devs, whether you agree with their analysis, or not, are choosing to focus on the consoles because of piracy.
A developer is explaining why their game flopped. Lots of people pirated Crysis, but there is nothing to indicate that without piracy this game would have been a success. I personally thought Crysis sucked, but the widely held review sentiment that you needed to have a top of the line system to justify the purchase seems like the obvious reason here. Of course, that's not the logic somebody directly responsible for high system requirements is prone to gravitate to.
Actually Crysis didn't flop completely, it sold over a million copies within a few months of release, but was clearly hurt by piracy with over
300,000 pirated torrents to only 86,633 sold copies in its first month. Yes, you needed the best video hardware at the time to run the game, but this data
directly corroborates Cliff B's statements that a person who is willing to pay $600 for a video card knows how to download and run a torrent. Only after the mainstream caught up with the likes of the 8800GT and 3870 did Crysis' sales pick up and eclipse the 1 million sold mark.
Also, the already referenced Top 10 Most Pirated Copies of 2008 show Crysis with 940,000 pirated copies....again, very close to that 1:1 pirated to sales ratio you see so common on the PC with best-sellers, but never on consoles. Not sure how you can come to the conclusion its just Cevat Yertli explaining why his title flopped, when in reality, he's saying they took a gamble on a PC exclusive, failed because of piracy, and won't make the same mistake again. This sentiment is echoed in his statements that they'll no longer be console exclusive and that they're "linking themselves" to the consoles in general, and PS4 in particular, going forward.
Again, you can say you thought Crysis sucked, but that won't matter in 2-3 years when PC gamers are wondering why Crysis 2 isn't being launched on the PC at the same time as the consoles, or at all, when Crysis was a PC exclusive from a studio that used to be completely PC exclusive.
Here we have a quote from John Carmack saying that he doesn't know what the exact reasons are for the switch from the PC to the console. How exactly does this help your position that it is proven that piracy is the leading cause of PC game failures?
Actually he clearly states two possible reasons, piracy and/or user migration, then says its obvious PC sales aren't what they used to be. He goes on to say the PC will clearly take a back seat to consoles going forward:
"We still think the PC is a market worth supporting, but we're not making decisions around the PC," Carmack added. "It's probably more of the junior partner in the cross-platform strategy, although obviously, our day-to-day development is predominately on the PC."
If you bothered following and reading the linked quotes to their source, you'd see those statements were reiterated and emphasized by people within the company who are a bit more sure of the financial impact of piracy.
id Software CEO Todd Hollenshead at last year's Game Developer's Conference, where he claimed that that "piracy has pushed id as being multiplatform"
Similar to quote 1 with the added "bonus" of coming from somebody from Epic. Xbox360 sales vs. PC sales prove absolutely nothing about piracy - people like the Xbox360 for lots of reasons that I find reasonable (xbLive, ease of use, great system for the buck) as well as those I find ridiculous (chasing achievement points, rather play from a couch).
I'll skip the rest of the article because it's just more of the same agenda-based arguments.
Agenda-based arguments? Is this a joke? Their agenda is obvious, they want to sell video games and piracy directly erodes those sales, which pushes them towards platforms that do not suffer from piracy of that scale. Its simple cause and effect based on statistical evidence.
As for future agendas, its pretty obvious which way they're going, as Tim Sweeney, the other "Father of PC Gaming" recently stated
Unreal Engine 4.0, will "exclusively target the next console generation. Of course this is where you claim you don't care about Epic games and UT3 sucked, but of course the repercussions of this decision extend far beyond any of Epic's IPs, as the Unreal Engine is one of the most licensed game engines on the PC, and UE3.0 is probably the most successful game engine of the DX9/10 generation.
Data indicating that games are most likely to be pirated on the PC platform is very compelling evidence that it is easier to pirate games on the PC platform than on consoles, nothing more.
Rofl. Again, all the statistics back up this reality, all you have in reply is that you're going to ignore it. I'm going to list off a few facts based on widely available market data, feel free to find evidence to refute it:
- There are more high-end gaming PCs than consoles, at least 2:1 and possibly as high as 3:1 (see Nvidia DX10 Cuda 100million units, PC Game Alliance stats, 50million total 360/PS3 sold to-date.
- Sales for multi-platform launches are higher on the consoles than the PC (see COD4, COD5, Fallout 3, any other simultaneous multi-platform launch)
- Piracy rates and totals for these titles are also lower on the consoles than the PC (See Top 10 Pirated PC games, TG research/references)
So what you have is more games pirated on the PC despite more game-capable PC machines, yet far fewer sales on the PC compared to consoles. With this toxic environment, it would obviously be fiscal suicide to remain PC exclusive unless your product was an MMO or completely on-line based with extensive DRM.
You're missing several key steps along the way to argue from this that piracy is the primary cause of certain developers saying they are going to abandon the PC platform.
No I'm not, I've linked numerous direct quotes stating piracy as the primary cause backed by numerous statistics and widely available data that corroborates their claims.
No matter what the Developers would have you believe, a pirated game does not translate directly to a lost sale on the books and I have yet to see any data that even demonstrates that they are positively correlated.
It doesn't matter because the fact remains, there are fewer pirated copies on the consoles despite higher sales and fewer machines compared to the PC for multi-platform titles.
Bringing up UT3 again, compare UT'99 with UT3. UT'99 had practically no copy protection and was very widely pirated, but was wildly successful as well. UT3 had very effective copy protection and was a flop. I'm not arguing that DRM was the cause for the flop, but neither is it rational to argue that piracy was a factor, let alone the primary factor.
That's funny you keep bringing UT3 up, since
it was apparently good enough to pirate, just not good enough to buy.....
- Epic?s Unreal Tournament 3 servers received over 40 million attempts at illegitimate access using pirate keys
I guess GoW wasn't the only factor in Epic's change in philosophy to shift development away from the PC exclusively......
I agree with you that CoD4 is an example of a well executed game. However, read the following quote.
Robert Bowling
"Yeah, we're still extremely excited about the success of the game on PC. The game did phenomenal on PC and we still have a huge community playing on the PC. We're definitely not upset about that success. We do get upset when people pirate our games and it is something we track. There aren't any hard numbers that we can announce but it's something that's definitely disheartening when you put a lot of work and passion into a game and then realize that a large percentage of players are playing on cracked copies. But the PC game did tremendous sales so we're still very excited about the PC version."
Actually if you bothered reading the quote, you'd see the underlined portion directly refutes your claims that devs don't have hard evidence about the extent of piracy. That quote along with others indicates the pirated copies were mixed in with legitimate users, something anyone at launch would've noticed. PunkBuster updates and game patches simply weeded those pirated users out, which contributed to some of the massive population drops seen within the first 2 months of COD4's existence. Again, I've seen estimates of pirated copies online as high as 50%, playing on the same servers as legitimate keys.
Naturally he is concerned about gamers pirating his product, but he has no data to support that sales would be better (or worse) without piracy.
Sure he does, he knows how many pirated keys there are on PC servers (as underlined above), then he looks at the number on the 360 and PS3 and realizes not only are there fewer pirated versions on the consoles, they also sold exponentially more copies as well.
Cracked keys in CoD4 have to play on cracked servers (a serious limitation as the cracked servers have no PunkBuster) and everybody I know who played CoD4 bought a legitimate copy so they could play on the vast majority of servers that weren't rampant with hackers.
Hacked copies/keys have absolutely nothing to do with in-game hacks, they're in no way mutually exclusive.
However, the important line is the bolded phrase. The well executed game (COD4) had "tremendous sales", while the poorly executed game (UT3) was a flop. Piracy and DRM is an attractive scapegoat for the industry (and frustrated gamers) but execution is still what really matters.
Tremendous sales that still fell well short of the inferior console versions along with exponentially greater pirated PC copies.
Of the 7 million copies, about 3.04 million sold were for the Xbox 360. According to the data, only 383,000 copies for the PC were purchased, but that does not take into consideration digital distribution sales via platforms like STEAM.
TG: 566K Pirated on PC compared to 110K Pirated on PS3/360
830K Pirated in 2008 alone, not counting the first 2 months after release.
You can claim piracy and DRM are scapegoats ad nauseum but the reality of it is, consoles have effective DRM limiting the impact of piracy and also enjoy greater sales and revenue. On the other hand, PC gaming is undoubtedly shrinking outside of the MMO market, which is largely dominated by a single entity in WoW.