Gallup: Romney and Obama tied 47% each

[jackstar7]

Looks like the Twitter account is a parody acct.

And I can get to the page now, but I notice a distinct lack of an "About Us" or equivalent page. I just wanted some basic bio info.

Is that out there somewhere? I am not a user of the book of faces, so I'm not sure if that's where they keep that.

Little Help?


Also, frustrating that they seem inextricably linked to the Examiner so as to seemingly not reveal much of any information about their process with regards to individual polls.

 

[Pens1566]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[jackstar7]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

What does that have to do with anything?

 

[jackstar7]

This article doesn't give any credence to unskewed, and I can't find fault with their analysis:

http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewedpolls-2012-9

 

[mshan]

"Dean Chambers, a blogger on Examiner.com who writes from his home in Duffield, Virginia, took that complaint a step further — producing wide Romney leads far beyond what the Republican's campaign or Republican pollsters have suggested is the case.

He created the site unskewedpolls.com, retooling national polling data this July after reading an ABC News/Washington Post poll that "just didn't look right."

...

"But while Chambers' methods may appeal to conservatives, other pollsters say their samples reflect reality — not wishful thinking — and that the higher Democratic numbers are similar to those in the most recent presidential election.

Even the founder of Rasmussen Reports, whose surveys often show higher Republican numbers, cast doubt on Chambers' methods: Scott Rasmussen told BuzzFeed in an e-mail that "you cannot compare partisan weighting from one polling firm to another."

"Different firms ask about partisan affiliation in different ways," explained Rasmussen. "Some ask how you are registered. Some ask what you consider yourselves. Some push for leaners, others do not. Some ask it at the beginning of a survey which provides a more stable response while others ask it at the end."

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality#HTWF2

 

[jackstar7]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality#HTWF2

Thanks. I had seen that, and was just looking for that information to be clear on the site... alas, it does not appear to want to be found by me.

 

[Pens1566]

What does that have to do with anything?

It's the only meaningful polling resource that anyone should be concerned with. Well, that and RCP.

 

[Screech]

The website unskewedpolls links to this page to explain how it "unskews" things:

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama

One line is the following:

No serious observer of American politics or pollster believes that Republicans make up only 24 percent of the population. Is it precisely this under-sampling of Republicans, and proportional over-sampling of Democrats, that skews this survey.

Which is kinda funny:

http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/01/trend-in-party-identification-1939-2012/

 

[MomentsofSanity]

The website unskewedpolls links to this page to explain how it "unskews" things:

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama

One line is the following:


Which is kinda funny:

http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/01/trend-in-party-identification-1939-2012/

Rasmussen is the only one who is an outlier on the subject of party affiliation. The rest all fall into the exact same range.

 

[monovillage]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/conservatives-single-largest-ideological-group.aspx

June 15, 2009
"Conservatives" Are Single-Largest Ideological Group
Percentage of "liberals" higher this decade than in early '90s
by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- Thus far in 2009, 40% of Americans interviewed in national Gallup Poll surveys describe their political views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This represents a slight increase for conservatism in the U.S. since 2008, returning it to a level last seen in 2004. The 21% calling themselves liberal is in line with findings throughout this decade, but is up from the 1990s.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/conservatives-single-largest-ideological-group.aspx

I actually think you read that and see the words Republican and Democrat in them. For the rest of us it would just be assumption.

 

[xBiffx]

I actually think you read that and see the words Republican and Democrat in them. For the rest of us it would just be assumption.

Perhaps, but let me know when you run into a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. These categories may have existed in the past but today, I'm not so sure.

 

[jackstar7]

Perhaps, but let me know when you run into a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. These categories may have existed in the past but today, I'm not so sure.

They're out there. They're just impractical to market to in this environment.

 

[Engineer]

Romney's only chance at this point is to trash Obama in the debates. The average lead "overall" has risen to 4.0% and the swing states are on the rise also for Obama. It's starting to go outside the margin or error on many of these.

RCP Average 9/11 - 9/24 -- -- 48.6 44.6 Obama +4.0

Bloomberg 9/21 - 9/24 789 LV 3.5 49 43 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 9/22 - 9/24 1500 LV 3.0 47 46 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 9/18 - 9/24 3050 RV 2.0 48 45 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/16 - 9/20 1000 LV 3.1 50 47 Obama +3
National Journal 9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
Hartford Courant/UConn 9/11 - 9/18 1186 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.7 48 45 Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5
Pew Research/PSRAI 9/12 - 9/16 2268 LV 2.4 51 43 Obama +8

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Romney's only chance at this point is to trash Obama in the debates.

Agreed. That's why I see this race as essentially over. Obama is a strong debater and even if the debates are close (which they may or may not be), I don't see him being blown out. Romney was good at times during the GOP debates, but he was up against a field of misfits and so he was able to come off as Presidential (when he wasn't challenging Rick Perry to $10,000 bets). Here he will be up against the actual President, and Obama is such a cool, composed figure that I can't imagine him being humbled by Romney under any circumstances.

 

[soundforbjt]

Agreed. That's why I see this race as essentially over. Obama is a strong debater and even if the debates are close (which they may or may not be), I don't see him being blown out. Romney was good at times during the GOP debates, but he was up against a field of misfits and so he was able to come off as Presidential (when he wasn't challenging Rick Perry to $10,000 bets). Here he will be up against the actual President, and Obama is such a cool, composed figure that I can't imagine him being humbled by Romney under any circumstances.

I'm waiting for Mitt to get crushed in the first debate and Limbaugh calling The President "uppity".

 

[chowderhead]

But but but Rasmussen.
9/19-25/2012
Gallup
Obama 50% (48%)
Romney 44% (45%)

Romney is probably the worst candidate for President in my lifetime.

 

[Moonbeam]

I think Romney is an Illuminati plant designed to destroy the Republican party and save the nation, eventually merging it into the United Nations where Obama will become the leader of the entire world. I think he will channel Bill Clinton during the debates and then totally disappear as millions and millions of conservatives search for the nearest cliff and bridges to kill themselves. The rest will become women and switch to democrat because their balls shrunk up and fell off. Some may see all those shrunken testicles as manna from heaven but resist the temptation. Republicans have been at the top of the food chain and their balls are full of DDT.

 

[K1052]

the swing states are on the rise also for Obama.

This is why I could give a shit about the national polling. The gaps opening up in the swing states have placed most them out of reach for Romney. An EC victory is now somewhere between highly improbable and impossible.

Unfortunately for the Republicans the damage by Romney extends beyond the Presidential ticket into the Senate races.

 

[Engineer]

Unfortunately for the Republicans the damage by Romney extends beyond the Presidential ticket into the Senate races.

Interesting that you mention that as I read an article that stated that Romney has all but handed the Senate to the Dems and if not careful, might swing the House closer (if not to) the Dems. (To be fair, it might be Ryan's far right wing stance that's moving this also).

 

[Engineer]

Small update:

RCP Average 9/13 - 9/28 -- -- 48.9 44.6 Obama +4.3

Rasmussen Tracking 9/26 - 9/28 1500 LV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
FOX News 9/24 - 9/26 1092 LV 3.0 48 43 Obama +5
Gallup Tracking 9/22 - 9/28 3050 RV 2.0 50 44 Obama +6
Bloomberg 9/21 - 9/24 789 LV 3.5 49 43 Obama +6
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/16 - 9/20 1000 LV 3.1 50 47 Obama +3
National Journal 9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1

 

[Rainsford]

Perhaps, but let me know when you run into a liberal Republican or a conservative Democrat. These categories may have existed in the past but today, I'm not so sure.

I think the point was that monovillage sees 40% identify as "conservative" and only 21% as "liberal" as supporting the idea that Republicans have a huge advantage and that's not necessarily true. For one thing, 56% of the electorate identifies as either liberal OR moderate, which means Republicans could easily be down even if they capture every single self-identified "conservative" out there.

And to be honest, I think monovillage's implications about the ideological identification are obviously untrue. Even if nearly twice as many people identify as conservative as identify as liberal, there obviously aren't twice as many Republican voters as Democrats.

 

[Tom]

liberal Republicans ? there's a dwindling number of moderate Republicans, let alone liberal Republicans.

There are still lots of fiscally conservative Democrats, there are even right to life Democrats.

Its true though there arent' many gay-bashing, woman-hating, Latino-blaming Democrats, and I'm proud of that.

 

[IronWing]

The first yard signs went in my hood for the general Presidential race and first in is...

Gary Johnson

No Obama or Romney signs yet. Don't get me wrong, the area is plastered with campaign signs, just not ones for the Presidential race, yet, except for Gary Johnson. My precinct generally goes Republican by about 70%.

 

[Engineer]

Yea, I find it very strange on the yard signs. I have seen 3 for Obama and 1 for Romney in my neighborhood.

I did see 2 for Romney and 0 for Obama about 2 weeks ago on a walk through an upper scale neighborhood.

Signs are scarce this year.