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Gallup: Romney and Obama tied 47% each

cybrsage

Lifer
Nov 17, 2011
13,021
0
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A new Gallup survey has the presidential race tied at 47 percent apiece in a new national poll featuring pro-abortion President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who is endorsed by pro-life groups.
About its newest poll, Gallup says:
These are the results when registered voters are asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?”
Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results. Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.​

http://www.lifenews.com/2012/09/20/gallup-romney-obama-tied-at-47-each-in-presidential-poll/

Far from being a sure thing for the Obama camp. This election looks like it will come down to the wire!
 

cybrsage

Lifer
Nov 17, 2011
13,021
0
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Rasmussen agrees with Gallup:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
When “leaners” are included, the candidates are tied at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
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The tracking polls have been out of whack pretty much this entire cycle. They may make right-leaning folks feel more positive about the state of the race, but the problem for Romney is that he is now trailing -- sometimes badly -- in the swing state polls, which are what really matters.

I simply don't see any path to an EV victory for him when he's down in nearly every state he needs to win. Look at the state polls and it becomes obvious why nearly all analysts have his chance of winning well below 50%.

PS Third-party candidates always poll much higher than they actually get in elections.
 

cybrsage

Lifer
Nov 17, 2011
13,021
0
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The tracking polls have been out of whack pretty much this entire cycle. They may make right-leaning folks feel more positive about the state of the race, but the problem for Romney is that he is now trailing -- sometimes badly -- in the swing state polls, which are what really matters.
:D Polls are out of whack except those which show Romney is trailing. Shill much?
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
0
0
:D Polls are out of whack except those which show Romney is trailing. Shill much?
The national tracking polls are out of whack because they are not consistent with what is being shown by more detailed state-level polls. Not because they don't show Romney trailing.

If you want to argue that this race is close, please present -- without poll cherry-picking -- a set of states where Romney is leading that add to 270 EV. Good luck -- you'll need it.

Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475
 
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Jan 25, 2011
16,082
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:D Polls are out of whack except those which show Romney is trailing. Shill much?
Not what he said at all but I'm sure you know this.

Do you disagree that the national poll is not nearly as valuable as a state by state breakdown which would more accurately represent the Electoral College breakdown? In that regard Obama is steadily increasing his lead in the swing states over Romney.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
Registered voters.

I think most other pollsters have shifted over to likely voters (since around September?).

Gallup Daily Tracker and Rassmussen (robocalls?) seem to be outliers this cycle (whether they are right or wrong vs. everyone else, well I guess we'll know on November 7). Seems like using live callers, and including cell phones, in addition to landlines, might also be detail to dig down into methodology of any given poll (plus of course whether they are using registered voters or likely voters as their turnout template).






FWIW, Nate Silver adds his thoughts on the Gallup Daily Tracker here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/sept-20-obamas-convention-bounce-may-not-be-receding/

He also points out that we have added 100 state polls over the last week:
"We have added nearly 100 state polls to our database over the course of the past week. If you can’t infer some useful information from those, and instead insist on calibrating your expectations of the race from one or two tracking polls, you’re going to have a warped perspective on where the contest stands."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/sept-21-presidential-race-changes-but-swing-states-stay-the-same/
(quoted quote is not meant to be a dig at anyone, just pointed out that a lot of new data has been added in last week, and especially at the state / electoral college level)
 
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Tom

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
13,294
1
76
Obama is not pro-abortion. He is pro not having the state control a woman's body.

Romney is not pro-life. He favors the state killing people as well as having no plan to keep sick people from dying of treatable conditions.
 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,820
1,123
126
LMGDAO 47% to 47%!!

Yeah, OK.

A sure thing for the Obama camp. This election looks like it is over and Romney hung himself with a wire.
 
Feb 10, 2000
30,033
64
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Registered voters.

I think most other pollsters have shifted over to likely voters (since around September?).

Gallup Daily Tracker and Rassmussen (robocalls?) seem to be outliers this cycle (whether they are right or wrong vs. everyone else, well I guess we'll know on November 7). Seems like using live callers, and including cell phones, in addition to landlines, might also be detail to dig down into methodology of any given poll (plus of course whether they are using registered voters or likely voters as their turnout template).

FWIW, Nate Silver adds his thoughts on the Gallup Daily Tracker here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/sept-20-obamas-convention-bounce-may-not-be-receding/

He also points out that we have added 100 state polls over the last week:


(quoted quote is not meant to be a dig at anyone, just pointed out that a lot of new data has been added in last week, and especially at the state / electoral college level)

That's the thing. Nationwide polling is of dubious importance anyway, and I'm skeptical of Gallup and Rasmussen's methodology because their results are much different from the other reputable pollsters this season. This has obviously been the topic of much discussion - see, e.g., http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107512/daily-breakdown-gallup-and-rasmussen-v-world

Frankly based on the battleground state polling I am skeptical of any poll that doesn't favor Obama winning the election at this point. Could that change, and could Romney win? Sure. I personally don't see that happening, though, because Obama's lead in swing states is sufficient at this point that Romney would have to really hammer Obama in the debates to win. Obama has done well in his past Presidential debates, whereas Romney has been mediocre, so I would expect the debates will just solidify Obama's lead. I expect Obama to win with at least 300 electoral votes, and that election night will make some of the usual suspects here very cranky indeed. We shall see . . .
 

jman19

Lifer
Nov 3, 2000
11,105
491
126
I do think the popular vote will be close, but the EV polling definitely does not favor Romney at this point in time. Still a month and a half to go.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,649
13,732
136
http://www.lifenews.com/2012/09/20/gallup-romney-obama-tied-at-47-each-in-presidential-poll/

Far from being a sure thing for the Obama camp. This election looks like it will come down to the wire!
[/INDENT]
Whistlin' past the graveyard. Robo-polls don't mean shit. Despite all the fluffing & puffing from the usual suspects, Mitt's chances of winning aren't good, and his chances of stepping on his big swinging dick in his golf shoes, again, remain strong. He'll probably weld his own coffin shut from the inside with the debates. Hard to do with his dick stuck to his golf cleats, but I suspect he'll manage.

Barring some incredible twist of fate, he's going down, and he's taking some fellow Repubs with him.
 

Smoblikat

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2011
5,185
107
106
Obama is not pro-abortion. He is pro not having the state control a woman's body.

Romney is not pro-life. He favors the state killing people as well as having no plan to keep sick people from dying of treatable conditions.
Obama also conveniently is pro people having sex and the tax payers paying for it.
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Administrator
Mar 5, 2001
49,619
160
111
www.slatebrookfarm.com
:D Polls are out of whack except those which show Romney is trailing. Shill much?
His point is that these polls merely represent the popular vote. They fail to look at states individually and look at the electoral votes that each candidate will likely receive.

E.g., say it's 55% Obama to 40% Romney in NY, Cali, etc. - states that have a lot of electoral votes - but in Texas, it's 80% Romney to 15% Obama. Neither of those matter at all. What matters is the swing states - the states that will ultimately decide the election.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
The people who look at more more than single poll results seem to disagree that the race is super close, giving a decent sized (but not insurmountable) advantage to Obama. The fivethirtyeight blog in particular, which tracks numerous polls over time for "now" results and uses a number of other factors to try to project voting in November, has pretty consistently had Obama as having around 3/4 chance of winning and getting an average of somewhere north of 300 electoral votes.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,649
13,732
136
His point is that these polls merely represent the popular vote. They fail to look at states individually and look at the electoral votes that each candidate will likely receive.

E.g., say it's 55% Obama to 40% Romney in NY, Cali, etc. - states that have a lot of electoral votes - but in Texas, it's 80% Romney to 15% Obama. Neither of those matter at all. What matters is the swing states - the states that will ultimately decide the election.
I doubt that they even reflect the national popular vote, but we'll see.
 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,699
47
91
with the massive willing accomplice support the obama regime has been getting i.e. media/hollywood idiots/liberal structured deceptions/endless boiler plate dogma..why isn't the obama 20 points ahead?? Why is the obama struggling to keep his head above water??
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
with the massive willing accomplice support the obama regime has been getting i.e. media/hollywood idiots/liberal structured deceptions/endless boiler plate dogma..why isn't the obama 20 points ahead?? Why is the obama struggling to keep his head above water??
Maybe because there is no ridiculous conspiracy going on?
 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,699
47
91

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
He's not.

The real question is how it is that with the economy this weak, the Republicans couldn't field a candidate able to beat Obama by 10 points.
Because no matter how rich the campaign you can't counter the willing help of the mainstream media.
Do you deny that there's any bias in the mainstream press Kozierok?
 

nehalem256

Lifer
Apr 13, 2012
15,670
6
0
Obama is not pro-abortion. He is pro not having the state control a woman's body.

Romney is not pro-life. He favors the state killing people as well as having no plan to keep sick people from dying of treatable conditions.
You might have a better case on this if the Democratic platform did not endorse having the government pay for abortions.
 

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