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Gallup: Romney and Obama tied 47% each

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Geosurface

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2012
5,777
3
0
Anyone else ever find it fishy how every time there's a presidential election, there's a big long leadup where they're pretty much dead even?

This doesn't make logical sense to me. Why would it just happen to be so, that these two parties would reach this sort of perfect equilibrium? Every fucking time?

To me it reeks of tweaking the numbers to maintain excitement... not much of a story if one person is just trouncing the other for months straight, leading up to the inevitable result of that.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
I think it's true and here's another piece about that same poll.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/0923/Poll-finds-high-level-of-distrust-in-the-media.-Anybody-surprised



There's also a story about skewed polls and how they get that way, but the site itself is ridiculously skewed.
A poll can say anything the pollster wants it to say or what the person paying for the poll wants.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
In 2008, the 3 sites - fivethirtyeight, pollster, and RCP - which aggregated polling data, were extremely accurate, within less than 1 point on the popular vote, and accurately predicting 48 or 49 of the 50 states. Individual polls are obviously subject to margins of statistical error. Aggregated polling pretty much eliminates that. Yet if the polls were nonsense in general, the aggregaters would have gotten it wrong. It would have been garbage in/garbage out. Political polling has proven generally reliable over the years, with not very many notable exceptions.

I suspect you know this or you wouldn't be calling this election for Obama yourself.
 
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woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
Anyone else ever find it fishy how every time there's a presidential election, there's a big long leadup where they're pretty much dead even?

This doesn't make logical sense to me. Why would it just happen to be so, that these two parties would reach this sort of perfect equilibrium? Every fucking time?

To me it reeks of tweaking the numbers to maintain excitement... not much of a story if one person is just trouncing the other for months straight, leading up to the inevitable result of that.
That would be very interesting, if in fact the polls were showing this as a dead heat. In fact, that is not really the case overall. There are many, many polls, state and national, conducted on a daily basis. You're just confused because the OP cherry picked a poll which shows an even race. When a conservative poster is starting a thread to highlight a single poll which shows the race as even, that should tell you something. Namely, that he can't find any that show his candidate ahead. "Even" on the popular vote is as good as it gets right now for Romney. The average is showing Obama up about 3.5 points in the popular vote. The swing state polling gets even worse for Romney.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
That would be very interesting, if in fact the polls were showing this as a dead heat. In fact, that is not really the case overall. There are many, many polls, state and national, conducted on a daily basis. You're just confused because the OP cherry picked a poll which shows an even race. When a conservative poster is starting a thread to highlight a single poll which shows the race as even, that should tell you something. Namely, that he can't find any that show his candidate ahead. "Even" on the popular vote is as good as it gets right now for Romney. The average is showing Obama up about 3.5 points in the popular vote. The swing state polling gets even worse for Romney.
Can you name the top 3 polling companies? The ones that most people, not just those here in ATP&N know about? I'd call them Gallup, Rasmussen and Pew.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,471
423
126
To me it reeks of tweaking the numbers to maintain excitement... not much of a story if one person is just trouncing the other for months straight, leading up to the inevitable result of that.
A person of a conspiratorial bent would think that News programs get better ratings if the race is closer.

who knows?
 

Todd33

Diamond Member
Oct 16, 2003
7,842
2
81
Stop arguing, just let the loons think it is tied, it will make the morning after more amusing.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
Can you name the top 3 polling companies? The ones that most people, not just those here in ATP&N know about? I'd call them Gallup, Rasmussen and Pew.
I don't know. How often a poll is cited on P&N is totally irrelevant. I'm not all that concerned about brand names in polling. Most pollsters know what they're doing, with the margin of error being the main qualifier. The aggregaters take a look at the various pollsters pretty closely and they may downgrade a poll with a poor track record or which seems to not use a very sound methodology. I saw no reason to distrust them in 2008 or 2010, and I see no reason to distrust them now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

With these numbers, given the low error margin, Obama would have better than a 90% chance to win if the election was tomorrow. The projections are more conservative given the amount of time left. However, the number of undecideds is very low, lower than at a similar time in past years. It's going to take an external event, like a big October surprise, to shift the election to Romney. Nothing in the vein of ordinary campaigning is going to do it.

If you asked me 8 months ago, I would have given Romney a slight edge. But I have to go with the numbers. They don't actually lie all that much.

- wolf
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
I don't know. How often a poll is cited on P&N is totally irrelevant. I'm not all that concerned about brand names in polling. Most pollsters know what they're doing, with the margin of error being the main qualifier. The aggregaters take a look at the various pollsters pretty closely and they may downgrade a poll with a poor track record or which seems to not use a very sound methodology. I saw no reason to distrust them in 2008 or 2010, and I see no reason to distrust them now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

With these numbers, given the low error margin, Obama would have better than a 90% chance to win if the election was tomorrow. The projections are more conservative given the amount of time left. However, the number of undecideds is very low, lower than at a similar time in past years. It's going to take an external event, like a big October surprise, to shift the election to Romney. Nothing in the vein of ordinary campaigning is going to do it.

If you asked me 8 months ago, I would have given Romney a slight edge. But I have to go with the numbers. They don't actually lie all that much.

- wolf
8 months ago I would have given Obama an even bigger edge in this election, especially seeing the contenders for the GOP nomination.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
8 months ago I would have given Obama an even bigger edge in this election, especially seeing the contenders for the GOP nomination.
When I saw the contenders, that is when I first started to think Obama had some chance. For a while, I found persuasive some of ProJo's arguments about no incumbent ever winning with unemployment over 8% or approval below 50%.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
RCP's average now has Obama up in NC for the first time since May (not that he needs it).
The single biggest problem for Romney right now is the state of Ohio, 4.1 point deficit with essentially no margin of error. There aren't enough undecideds in that state to overcome it. Romney will have to steal some committed Obama voters in addition to taking almost all of the undecideds.

There is virtually no plausible scenario whereby Romney loses Ohio and wins the EC.
 

Juddog

Diamond Member
Dec 11, 2006
7,851
1
76
The single biggest problem for Romney right now is the state of Ohio, 4.1 point deficit with essentially no margin of error. There aren't enough undecideds in that state to overcome it. Romney will have to steal some committed Obama voters in addition to taking almost all of the undecideds.

There is virtually no plausible scenario whereby Romney loses Ohio and wins the EC.
Romney must really be doing crap if he's losing in Ohio. Every Ohio person I've personally known has been vehemently anti-Obama.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,445
0
0
The single biggest problem for Romney right now is the state of Ohio, 4.1 point deficit with essentially no margin of error. There aren't enough undecideds in that state to overcome it. Romney will have to steal some committed Obama voters in addition to taking almost all of the undecideds.

There is virtually no plausible scenario whereby Romney loses Ohio and wins the EC.
"It ain't over till it's over" or "It ain't over till the fat lady sings"
There's still 42 days till the election.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
Romney must really be doing crap if he's losing in Ohio. Every Ohio person I've personally known has been vehemently anti-Obama.
It probably depends on where in Ohio you're located and what crowd you hang with. Every state has its conservative and liberals areas.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
0
0
"It ain't over till it's over" or "It ain't over till the fat lady sings"
There's still 42 days till the election.
Hence why Obama's chance to win is probably 70-80% instead of 90-100% if the election was tomorrow. Nothing is impossible here. It's entirely a matter of probabilities.
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
Obama's gamble with the auto industry basically sealed his reelection. There is virtually no way he is going to lose Ohio based on the polling data I am seeing right now. Especially not when his opponent flat out said on the record to "Let the auto industry go bankrupt". That was really the death sentence for Romney in what is normally an otherwise lean-Republican state.

As others have said, unless Romney wins Ohio there isn't any plausible scenario in which he can win. It would mean he'd have to run the table with basically all other swing states, most of which are now leaning Obama or are decidedly in Obama territory. Does anyone really expect this to happen? Not me.
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
8,232
2
0
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/skewed-and-unskewed-polls/

Another article on the unskewedpolls site.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

That site again for reference.

I know, I know, they don't show Obama in the lead so its just partisan bullshit. :rolleyes:

I still think the last line of the first article rings true.

Now, this should also be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, they claim (by the site name) to be an unskewed poll. In fact, they’re just a differently skewed take on existing polls. Instead of taking their numbers over, say, Gallup, though, what it should tell us is that even if the polls are being heavily weighted to Obama, Romney’s still essentially tied. Any difference in Romney’s direction in real turnout from the pollster’s assumptions would bring Romney into a lead.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,468
389
121
Obama's gamble with the auto industry basically sealed his reelection. There is virtually no way he is going to lose Ohio based on the polling data I am seeing right now. Especially not when his opponent flat out said on the record to "Let the auto industry go bankrupt". That was really the death sentence for Romney in what is normally an otherwise lean-Republican state.

As others have said, unless Romney wins Ohio there isn't any plausible scenario in which he can win. It would mean he'd have to run the table with basically all other swing states, most of which are now leaning Obama or are decidedly in Obama territory. Does anyone really expect this to happen? Not me.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57380517-503544/let-detroit-go-bankrupt-column-dogs-romney-in-michigan/

In the op-ed, Romney argued that a "managed bankruptcy" could benefit General Motors, Ford and Chrysler because it would "permit the companies to shed excess labor, pension and real estate costs." Romney did not suggest the Detroit auto industry be liquidated, and he called the industry "vital to our national interest."
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
0
0
I know, I know, they don't show Obama in the lead so its just partisan bullshit. :rolleyes:
No, it's partisan bullshit because it's based on flawed reasoning, uses unscientific methods, and leads to laughable results that don't reflect reality.

If anyone here actually thinks Romney is up by 8 points, I've got a bridge to sell you.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,471
423
126
Again the swing state polls are more relevant than the national polls that include people from non swing states.

Having said that quite a damn lot can happen in 40 days.
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
8,232
2
0
No, it's partisan bullshit because it's based on flawed reasoning, uses unscientific methods, and leads to laughable results that don't reflect reality.

If anyone here actually thinks Romney is up by 8 points, I've got a bridge to sell you.
Well if you know exactly what is going to happen then why bother discussing it, why bother commenting here at all? People like you who speak in ultimatums are hilarious.

Also, I would love for you to back up the bolded, in detail. Not saying that isn't true, I just want to hear your explanation.
 

ericlp

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,079
186
106
umbrella39 said:
LMGDAO 47% to 47%!!

Yeah, OK.

A sure thing for the Obama camp. This election looks like it is over and Romney hung himself with a wire.
haha, that about sums up this thread.


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Todd33

Diamond Member
Oct 16, 2003
7,842
2
81
Obama's gamble with the auto industry basically sealed his reelection. There is virtually no way he is going to lose Ohio based on the polling data I am seeing right now. Especially not when his opponent flat out said on the record to "Let the auto industry go bankrupt". That was really the death sentence for Romney in what is normally an otherwise lean-Republican state.

As others have said, unless Romney wins Ohio there isn't any plausible scenario in which he can win. It would mean he'd have to run the table with basically all other swing states, most of which are now leaning Obama or are decidedly in Obama territory. Does anyone really expect this to happen? Not me.
October surprise; Obama is a Muslim from Kenya... OH what do they have left?
 

Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,916
172
106
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/skewed-and-unskewed-polls/

Another article on the unskewedpolls site.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

That site again for reference.

I know, I know, they don't show Obama in the lead so its just partisan bullshit. :rolleyes:

I still think the last line of the first article rings true.

Now, this should also be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, they claim (by the site name) to be an unskewed poll. In fact, they’re just a differently skewed take on existing polls. Instead of taking their numbers over, say, Gallup, though, what it should tell us is that even if the polls are being heavily weighted to Obama, Romney’s still essentially tied. Any difference in Romney’s direction in real turnout from the pollster’s assumptions would bring Romney into a lead.
TBH I'm not following the polling closely at this time. However, what I have read about them claimed they were basing the weighting (Dem vs Repub) on 2008 turnout. I don't claim to know what the turnout will be, but if that assumption is wrong the election results will surprise many.

Fern
 

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