Gallup: Romney and Obama tied 47% each

[chowderhead]

Can Romney win without picking off a state like Colorado:
He better hope so:

PPP
Obama 51 (49%)
Romney 45% (46%)

 

[monovillage]

Still waiting...

Originally Posted by CharlesKozierok View Post
If you want to argue that this race is close, please present -- without poll cherry-picking -- a set of states where Romney is leading that add to 270 EV. Good luck -- you'll need it.

You aimed this at cybrsage btw, but if he only has to prove that the race is close as you said, then why does he have to show where Romney is leading for the 270 EV ? A close race would be anything within each polls margin of error.

I've also stated on a number of occasions that I think the odds favor an Obama win and that the Republicans should focus on the House and the Senate.

 

[Jhhnn]

They were AARP members. Just like the AARP members that booed Ryan were disrespectful, but he's a conservative and has the balls to keep speaking until he got cheers later.

The people at the Dallas meeting weren't necessarily AARP members, at all. It was a town hall format, meaning any raving fringewhack or anti-Obama shill could attend, and there are obviously plenty in Texas.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

You aimed this at cybrsage btw, but if he only has to prove that the race is close as you said, then why does he have to show where Romney is leading for the 270 EV ?

I asked because an analysis of the state polls will show that Romney is way, way behind in the EV count. It's possible that some polls overstate Romney's position just as it is possible that some overstate Obama's, so for this to be a real contest, he should be ahead in several swing states. If nobody can come up with a set of states where Romney is either leading or at least close to leading that provide a path to victory, then the race is not close -- no matter how much some people might wish it were.

 

[Jhhnn]

Can Romney win without picking off a state like Colorado:
He better hope so:

PPP
Obama 51 (49%)
Romney 45% (46%)

Only a miracle of low Dem turnout will allow Romney to take Colorado, imo. I live here, & I'm involved.

I'm seeing a fair # of rogue bumper stickers, "Mitt the Twit" being my fave... it really ought to be his campaign slogan...

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

The bottom line is America is coming home to Obama. He's our President, for better or worse, and we're sticking with him and giving him another 4 years to right the ship. There is recognition that he did not accomplish everything he said he would, but most people understand that he has accomplished a lot and that he was dealt a miserable hand.

Mitt Romney has never presented himself as a viable alternative. His campaign has been utterly reckless and devoid of principles and ideas. Beating incumbents is HARD, you need to present America with a real alternative to actually win. Romney's secrecy and lack of detail is basically his undoing.

 

[monovillage]

"Coming home to Obama"? "Coming home to Obama"? For fucks sake that's just sad.

 

[LumbergTech]

"Coming home to Obama"? "Coming home to Obama"? For fucks sake that's just sad.

That is how I felt when Bush was re-elected. I couldn't believe the country was going to keep him, but I think a lot of people just didn't feel comfortable switching presidents at that point and the opposition just wasn't convincing enough to swing enough people.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Kerry actually came damn close though. If Ohio had swung for him he would have won the election. That's because he really wasn't THAT bad of a candidate, he just wasn't good enough

Romney has no shot. He literally is that bad of a candidate.

 

[LumbergTech]

Kerry actually came damn close though. If Ohio had swung for him he would have won the election. That's because he really wasn't THAT bad of a candidate, he just wasn't good enough

Romney has no shot. He literally is that bad of a candidate.

Kerry was pretty bad in my opinion in terms of being convincing.

 

[monovillage]

That is how I felt when Bush was re-elected. I couldn't believe the country was going to keep him, but I think a lot of people just didn't feel comfortable switching presidents at that point and the opposition just wasn't convincing enough to swing enough people.

Did they say something as banal or trite as "coming home to Bush" ? It's part of that whole creepy cult of Obama I've linked.
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/09/20/the-creepy-obama-cult/

 

[LumbergTech]

Did they say something as banal or trite as "coming home to Bush" ? It's part of that whole creepy cult of Obama I've linked.
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/09/20/the-creepy-obama-cult/

I realize you extremely dislike the guy, but people have always given Presidents more admiration than they probably deserve. To me it just looks like people who think they are supporting something good. Sure, you can try to twist it and call it a cult. Is anyone who honestly supports a president as opposed to thinking that they are the lesser evil a cultist?

 

[monovillage]

I'm saying your bias causes you to see it that way. That's fine. When you attempt to position that way then it's not fine. It's misinformation.

I'm saying you're wrong and here's just another example.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/cbs-doesnt-air-obama-admitting-mistakes-campaign-ads_652973.html

Tonight, CBS aired a 60 Minutes interview with President Obama. But curiously enough, the news magazine show did not air a clip of Obama admitting to interviewer Steve Kroft that some of his campaign ads contain mistakes and that some even "go overboard."

I was accused of selective editing in another thread, here's an example of selective editing by CBS news to the benefit of Obama.

There's a difference though, i freely admit to having a partisan bias while you and the mainstream press are biased, but lie about it.

 

[monovillage]

I realize you extremely dislike the guy, but people have always given Presidents more admiration than they probably deserve. To me it just looks like people who think they are supporting something good. Sure, you can try to twist it and call it a cult. Is anyone who honestly supports a president as opposed to thinking that they are the lesser evil a cultist?

It's not the fact they support Obama or his policies, it's the fatuous fan like frenzy they show when they do it. It's creepy and icky. The guy is a politician.

 

[shortylickens]

That is how I felt when Bush was re-elected. I couldn't believe the country was going to keep him, but I think a lot of people just didn't feel comfortable switching presidents at that point and the opposition just wasn't convincing enough to swing enough people.

No I think he meant the expression is stupid, cuz it doesnt actually mean anything.

 

[zsdersw]

Americans Are Sick of Media's Pro-Obama Bias




http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/mary-kate-cary/2012/09/21/americans-are-sick-of-medias-pro-obama-bias

If that's true, how can you blame the media for the tied race we appear to have at this point? Shouldn't Romney be 5-10 points ahead?

 

[monovillage]

If that's true, how can you blame the media for the tied race we appear to have at this point? Shouldn't Romney be 5-10 points ahead?

I think it's true and here's another piece about that same poll.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/0923/Poll-finds-high-level-of-distrust-in-the-media.-Anybody-surprised

“Americans' distrust in the media hit a new high this year, with 60 percent saying they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly,” Gallup reported Friday. “Distrust is up from the past few years, when Americans were already more negative about the media than they had been in years prior to 2004.”

That’s a far cry from the 1970s, when Gallup asked the question three times and found trust in the media as high as 72 percent.

It also means that “negativity toward the media is at an all-time high for a presidential election year,” according to Gallup, which is “particularly consequential at a time when Americans need to rely on the media to learn about the platforms and perspectives of the two candidates vying to lead the country for the next four years.”

There's also a story about skewed polls and how they get that way, but the site itself is ridiculously skewed.
A poll can say anything the pollster wants it to say or what the person paying for the poll wants.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

 

[Sonikku]

It just goes to show that Democrats can and will gain the edge by gaming the system and using a bloated electoral college relic to steamroll over the nations popular choice in gaining the presidency. No Republican would ever stoop to such means to gain the presidency.

 

[Engineer]

It just goes to show that Democrats can and will gain the edge by gaming the system and using a bloated electoral college relic to steamroll over the nations popular choice in gaining the presidency. No Republican would ever stoop to such means to gain the presidency.

Signed, George W. Bush during the 2000 vote over Al Gore.

LOL @ the irony on this post.

 

[Ryan]

It just goes to show that Democrats can and will gain the edge by gaming the system and using a bloated electoral college relic to steamroll over the nations popular choice in gaining the presidency. No Republican would ever stoop to such means to gain the presidency.

How can you type that with a straight face when nearly all national polls are giving Obama everything from a slight edge to a wide lead?

Newsflash...that means Obama is currently winning the popular vote. What we have here is a classic example of the self-grandeur exhibited by most Republicans these days - your opinion is not that of the nation as a whole, so stop claiming that it is. Accept the fact that you are currently in the minority...and most likely will still be once all votes are counted.

 

[monovillage]

How can you type that with a straight face when nearly all national polls are giving Obama everything from a slight edge to a wide lead?

Newsflash...that means Obama is currently winning the popular vote. What we have here is a classic example of the self-grandeur exhibited by most Republicans these days - your opinion is not that of the nation as a whole, so stop claiming that it is. Accept the fact that you are currently in the minority...and most likely will still be once all votes are counted.

FFS it's a parody poster.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Signed, George W. Bush during the 2000 vote over Al Gore.

LOL @ the irony on this post.

Ummmm. Want to borrow some batteries?

 

[hal2kilo]

It just goes to show that Democrats can and will gain the edge by gaming the system and using a bloated electoral college relic to steamroll over the nations popular choice in gaining the presidency. No Republican would ever stoop to such means to gain the presidency.

 

[Engineer]

Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/16 - 9/20 1000 LV 3.1 50 47 Obama +3
Rasmussen Tracking 9/21 - 9/23 1500 LV 3.0 47 46 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 9/17 - 9/23 3050 RV 2.0 48 46 Obama +2
National Journal 9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
Hartford Courant/UConn 9/11 - 9/18 1186 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.7 48 45 Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5
Pew Research/PSRAI 9/12 - 9/16 2268 LV 2.4 51 43 Obama +8

Most of the numbers are within the margin of error on the "popular vote". However, the EC is what matters (sadly - should be gotten rid of in my opinion) and seems Obama is kicking Romney's teeth in on that one.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Sophitia is P&N's version of Stephen Colbert.

On the subject of state polls:

Colorado: Romney vs. Obama    PPP (D)    Obama 51, Romney 45    Obama +6
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama    Civitas (R)    Obama 49, Romney 45    Obama +4
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama    ARG    Obama 51, Romney 44    Obama +7
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama    ARG    Obama 51, Romney 44    Obama +7
Florida: Romney vs. Obama    ARG    Obama 50, Romney 45    Obama +5
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama    Rasmussen Reports    Obama 54, Romney 42    Obama +12
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama    WeAskAmerica*    Obama 53, Romney 41    Obama +12
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama    Mercyhurst University    Obama 48, Romney 40    Obama +8
Minnesota: Romney vs. Obama    Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*    Obama 48, Romney 40    Obama +8

This is not what you see in a close race. And the spread is getting bigger.