Facebook IPO watch.

[DaveSimmons]

You should read this blog post before gambling on Facebook stock:

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"Facebook is a Ponzi scheme"
http://www.jperla.com/blog/post/facebook-is-a-ponzi-scheme

"People go to Facebook to interact with their friends. It is fundamentally different from the ad platform that is Google. People go to Google to find something they need, possibly ready to buy, which a good percentage of the time can in fact be solved by someone's ad. Facebook ads, on the other hand, annoy users. They yield no real value, and thus no profits. "
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To me, Facebook mania is like Second Life mania from a few years back.

Currently, every corporation is spending money trying to get you to like them on Facebook for no particular reason, just like they were telling you to visit their virtual presence inside Second Life.

Clueless marketing types bought into the hype that they needed to reach the cool kids who were allegedly all in VR-space. There was a gold rush mentality and the money flowed in.

When was the last time before this post that you heard anything about Second Life?

 

[SP33Demon]

I don't think that's the reason that Zynga fell. Zynga's success is largely tied to Facebook's. I think it was caused by the extremely disappointing IPO today.

Disappointing when holding steady at 40? Ok dude. It's only valued at 34-36 so that's still an 11.1-17.6% increase above opening.

 

[rcpratt]

Disappointing when holding steady at 40? Ok dude. It's only valued at 34-36 so that's still an 11.1-17.6% increase above opening.

An IPO that doesn't rise 10-20% on the first day is a disappointment, I don't know what to tell you. Especially with the hype surrounding this one.

 

[alent1234]

facebook messenger is supposed to be taking some carrier texting revenues.

say you open a french restaurant in NYC. you go to facebook to advertise and say i want to see the fans of all french restaurants in NYC or specific parts of NYC to target your advertising.

with all the sites and blogs starting to use FB Connect i bet facebook can start letting them advertise themselves instead of going through google. instead of putting your ad on facebook you can do it on a food blog and target it only to be seen by the people you want to see it.

few months ago i like Jo malone fragrences on facebook and for a few weeks i was getting constant jo malone ads on a lot of sites.

the reason people liked google was that they told you what parts of your site were the most popular and what other sites the same people visited. facebook can do the same only better. and almost every new mobile app supports facebook these days but not google

facebook has a lot of potential other than just showing you ads next to your feed. and they are growing their earnings at something like 80% per year

 

[Imp]

Actually, you're partially correct. Facebook is decimating every other social media site so bad they had to halt trading on the other companies to stop the bloodbath today, everyone is trading up for shares of Facebook.



It's stupid to halt trading to prevent the bloodbath, eventually the cream will rise to the top. F Zynga.

That's actually really sad... So are you suggesting that most people who buy social media stocks are just opportunistic traders that hop from one shiny item to the next?

Notice I completely avoided the word "investor".

 

[SP33Demon]

An IPO that doesn't rise 10-20% on the first day is a disappointment, I don't know what to tell you. Especially with the hype surrounding this one.

It's still had a modest rise, especially despite shit beyond their control.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-investors-left-guessing-nasdaq-184019087.html

Winklevoss Twins planned this "glitch" in NASDAQ?

 

[epidemis]

Exceptions like Google? You have got to be shitting me if you think any new companies will rival the advertising revenue of Facebook and Google in the future. If you bought in after the IPO for Google, you'd still have earned 600%+ today. As long as Facebook management doesn't fck things up then they are on the same path.

$40 now.

Google didnt debut on such high expectation. As I see it, the potential upside is limited since it's already priced in as if it is certain. There is only downside.

 

[alent1234]

zynga is losing money
facebook is not only making money, but GROWING PROFITS

 

[DaveSimmons]

zynga is losing money
facebook is not only making money, but GROWING PROFITS

For now, when your salad dressing wants you to like it on Facebook for a chance to win prizes.

Once advertisers realizes that liking blue cheese doesn't translate to sales, will the ad dollars keep flowing in?

 

[alent1234]

it doesn't have to make you run out to buy the salad dressing that day, it's brand building

when i was a kid pepsi and coke advertised nonstop. it didn't make me buy coke right away but it was brand building. you go to the store and buy coke/pepsi over some other brand.

same with breakfast cereal or sneakers. most of the cost is advertising/brand building to make you choose it when you're ready to buy

facebook/google is a lot cheaper to do it than TV ads

 

[Nintendesert]

For now, when your salad dressing wants you to like it on Facebook for a chance to win prizes.

Once advertisers realizes that liking blue cheese doesn't translate to sales, will the ad dollars keep flowing in?

Considering how much everything is going towards mobile and Facebook hasn't been able to monetize that segment I'm sure the profits are just going to keep exploding.

Good luck to everyone that's buying this stock, I'm passing until it hits about $20.

 

[alent1234]

has anyone other than apple or samsung monetized mobile? admob's revenues aren't that high. even google says android barely made it money

 

[Imp]

it doesn't have to make you run out to buy the salad dressing that day, it's brand building

when i was a kid pepsi and coke advertised nonstop. it didn't make me buy coke right away but it was brand building. you go to the store and buy coke/pepsi over some other brand.

same with breakfast cereal or sneakers. most of the cost is advertising/brand building to make you choose it when you're ready to buy

facebook/google is a lot cheaper to do it than TV ads

I drink Pepsi/Coke because everyone else does it, and every STAR/celeb ("important people") I knew as a kid whored it on TV, in print, on TV shows. I mean the stars/people I cared about actually picked up the product, opened it, drank it, and enjoyed it. It was even worked into scripts occasionally.

Once in a blue moon, while I'm stalking celebs on twitter, the people I'm stalking plug a product by linking, mentioning it, etc. I guess they can do the same thing on their Facebook walls... except celebs rarely/ever post stuff on their FB walls that make the news, and most have their publicists maintain their FB/myspace pages. It's all "<celeb name> tweeted this today" nowadays.

Gonna go buy me some twitter stock...

 

[alent1234]

tv ad revenue is shrinking
online ad revenue is growing

google took their IPO money and went on a shopping spree buying dozens of tiny companies and a few big ones. i think at one point they were buying 50 or so companies a year.

expect facebook to do the same

 

[FM2n]

Volatility is wayyy too fscking high on this stock. I pulled out before close. Very small loss fortunately. Everywhere I read, everyone is skeptical about this stock so I don't see it rising unless there's some mind blowing announcement. Hopefully they will release a flying car soon.

 

[alent1234]

i'm going to watch it first before diving in

 

[SP33Demon]

And profit taking has it at 0% gain at the bell. Talk about pump and dump. wow

 

[abaez]

So the original $27-34 price was more accurate than their hopeful $38 price. No surprise.

 

[wirednuts]

facebook will be fine. fact is a billion people use it and many of them every single day. its an advertisers dream. its what every internet site wants. i dont know anyone who uses facebook that will be switching anytime soon. it has quickly become a household name and its going to stay that way.

all i can think about is how bad myspace screwed the pooch. they had this market... they didnt adapt and they let someone else take it right out from under them. how hilarious.

 

[wirednuts]

Gonna go buy me some twitter stock...

facebook focused on connecting you with friends you knew in real life. twitter managed to connect people you would otherwise never meet. theyre two different things really, but i agree it is strange facebook wasnt able to use their service to do what twitter does.

 

[FelixDeCat]

FB is has seen every potential source of revenue tapped. Advertisers are also starting to realize that its a pig in a poke, hype machine not worthy of a large ad budget. Here is the most recent:

GM Kills $10 Million Facebook Ad Campaign Because It Didn't Work


http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/05...n-facebook-ad-campaign-because-it-didnt-work/

This stock is for shens. Im pretty positive that the average investor is going to get screwed royally on this. It will be a $10-$15 stock for the next 8-10 years.......just like Yahoo.

This is not the next big thing because they are coming to market fully matured. Expect valuation to be stuck in limbo for quite some time.

If anything, speculative puts are the only attractive thing here since the NEXT big Facebook scandal will cause the share price to crater.

:whiste:

 

[darkewaffle]

I don't think facebook's strength is in it's advertising, though they have so much traffic that they inevitably will be able to make something out of it. I would actually think that most of FB's most active demographics would not have a lot of disposable income.

Their strength is in the amount of data they have about their users and the number of users they have; the key is finding some way to turn that into something profitable (licensing it, accepting queries and selling the results, becoming analysts themselves and integrating 'outside' data with their own databanks to sell the resulting trends/etc) without setting off the all the privacy alarmists.

 

[Nintendesert]

facebook will be fine. fact is a billion people use it and many of them every single day. its an advertisers dream. its what every internet site wants. i dont know anyone who uses facebook that will be switching anytime soon. it has quickly become a household name and its going to stay that way.

all i can think about is how bad myspace screwed the pooch. they had this market... they didnt adapt and they let someone else take it right out from under them. how hilarious.

That's just it, the ads on Facebook don't work. They aren't able to get anything going in the mobile space, which is the future for where users access Facebook.

Facebook as a product people use is great. Facebook as something to invest in is a bust.

 

[Corporate Thug]

Disappointing when holding steady at 40? Ok dude. It's only valued at 34-36 so that's still an 11.1-17.6% increase above opening.

it was valued at $38.

 

[Corporate Thug]

I don't think facebook's strength is in it's advertising, though they have so much traffic that they inevitably will be able to make something out of it. I would actually think that most of FB's most active demographics would not have a lot of disposable income.

Their strength is in the amount of data they have about their users and the number of users they have; the key is finding some way to turn that into something profitable (licensing it, accepting queries and selling the results, becoming analysts themselves and integrating 'outside' data with their own databanks to sell the resulting trends/etc) without setting off the all the privacy alarmists.

That would be a mighty task to accomplish.