Dullard's College Football - Week 8, 2006

[kalster]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
I have no doubt that Tennessee will lose another game this season.

If you have no doubt that they'd lose more than 1 game in a season, then I have no doubt that they deserve no higher than 6th place in my program.

Plug this into your program.

Tennessee 35
California 18



What does this mean? We need a playoff because debating personal opinion and computer rankings is stupid.

the season/ranking cant be based on 1 game only i think. for example look at these results

usc(3) 50
arkansas (20) 14


arkansas(20) 27
auburn (7) 10


usc(3) 28
washington state (21) 22

auburn (7) 40
washingon state (21) 14



all of the abover teams are linked through their opponents.
bottom line is 1 game doesn't define your season or your ranking.

 

[Thraxen]

Originally posted by: kalster
the season/ranking cant be based on 1 game only i think. for example look at these results

usc(3) 50
arkansas (20) 14

arkansas(20) 27
auburn (7) 10

usc(3) 28
washington state (21) 22

auburn (7) 40
washingon state (21) 14

all of the abover teams are linked through their opponents.
bottom line is 1 game doesn't define your season or your ranking.

That's exact point I was trying to make with the WVU-E. Carolina-Tulsa-BYU example I gave earlier. Looking at common opponents is entertaining and provides some food for thought, but it often fails to be an accurate predictor for how the two teams that share the common opponent would fair against one another. There are just too many factors that determine the final score of a game.

 

[b0mbrman]

Here's something I wonder about:

Across the season, how many points is home field worth?

I assume the home team wins more often than the away team, but by how many points?

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Here's something I wonder about:

Across the season, how many points is home field worth?

I assume the home team wins more often than the away team, but by how many points?

I don't include home field advantage in my ratings, because I can't justify harming a team because they had one or two more home games than away. Maybe others can justify it, but they are free to write their own software.

I have, however, compared the predictions from my program to the results of the games. I've done this for thousands of games over multiple years. The average difference is right around 3 points. The home team, on average, does 3 points better than the program predicts. Sure, sometimes the home team does much worse, and sometimes much better. But 3 points is a good estimate when you can't predict the future.

Thus, I suggest that everyone look at the predictions, and then add 3 points to the home team.

Some teams may do much better than 3 points. I'm from Nebraska, and I suspect Nebraska is closer to a 7 point home field advantage. But I haven't had enough data yet in the program to accurately get an average for each individual team.

 

[Alkaline5]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
Yes, it's pretty stupid that you get penalized by beating the same team twice. At least the Pac 10 doesn't have to suffer such a travesty.

Believe me, I hope we win out and I hope that somehow Georgia gets their act together this weekend.

Generally the computers take into account when one team beats another twice in the same season and doesn't count the losses against their strength of schedule.

Georgia is pretty bad this year. They're lucky not to have 4 or 5 losses already, so don't count on them upsetting Florida. I've got money on a blowout Florida win.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Here's something I wonder about:

Across the season, how many points is home field worth?

I assume the home team wins more often than the away team, but by how many points?

I don't include home field advantage in my ratings, because I can't justify harming a team because they had one or two more home games than away. Maybe others can justify it, but they are free to write their own software.

I have, however, compared the predictions from my program to the results of the games. I've done this for thousands of games over multiple years. The average difference is right around 3 points. The home team, on average, does 3 points better than the program predicts. Sure, sometimes the home team does much worse, and sometimes much better. But 3 points is a good estimate when you can't predict the future.

Thus, I suggest that everyone look at the predictions, and then add 3 points to the home team.

Some teams may do much better than 3 points. I'm from Nebraska, and I suspect Nebraska is closer to a 7 point home field advantage. But I haven't had enough data yet in the program to accurately get an average for each individual team.

That's awesome. I love looking at minutiae like that.

You should post your predictions prior to the games. It would be interesting to see how your computer-generated lines compare to the human-generated lines published in the newspapers.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
That's awesome. I love looking at minutiae like that.

You should post your predictions prior to the games. It would be interesting to see how your computer-generated lines compare to the human-generated lines published in the newspapers.

It is that minutiae that made me interested in writing the program. The predictions can be calculated from what I post above. Just subtract the two ratings, add ~3 for the home team, and you are set. I suspect the result would be comparable to the human betting. In most cases that I've looked at personally, the two ratings I give strattle the Vegas line. Thus, my program is useless for betting purposes. Computers were good when they first came out and people were betting based on gut feelings. But now, too many people bet based on the other computer programs, so that the computer advantage is wiped out.

 

[preslove]

Originally posted by: Feldenak

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
Hell, this is cut and dry. I don't need a formula to tell me who should be ranked ahead of who in this case. Sometimes people just need to open their eyes and look at the common sense answer. It's so freaking obvious... unless you're a Cal fan.

Come back and post that same thing after Tennessee's 2nd loss. And, if they never lose again, they'll be ranked quite high - so you have nothing to worry about.

Air Force could have easilly won or at least tied. Alabama was ahead with 4 minutes left in the game. Tennessee just doesn't deserve to be ranked too high YET. Tennessee is just two plays from being a 5-3 team. Of course, Tennessee is just one play from being an undefeated team too.

Why don't we talk about the Cal game from this past weekend? Or the Notre Dame game? Texas was handed a win in a game they should have lost. When it comes down to it all that matters are wins. I have no doubt that Tennessee will lose another game this season. However, based on TODAY, Tennessee should be rated higher than Cal until someone else comes along and proves otherwise.

You guys need to keep winning. I don't want Auburn to play Florida again in the SEC Championship. (Need you and LSU to come through for me and either Georiga or Spurrier to hand UF another loss).

Playing Florida again has no upside. Tough to beat a team twice in the same season plus if Auburn does beat Florida again...no bearing on the BCS.

You shouldn't want to play Florida in the SEC championship because UF will beat the crap out of Auburn at a neutral stadium I actually would rather UF play Auburn than Arkansas.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: JohnCU
everyone else is calling us the best 1 loss team in the nation and we're #17 in your poll? just wait til we blow VA tech out of the way thursday night.

Hi

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: JohnCU
everyone else is calling us the best 1 loss team in the nation and we're #17 in your poll? just wait til we blow VA tech out of the way thursday night.

Hi

fire tommy bowden. i have been here since 2002 and every year it's the same god damn thing.

 

[b0mbrman]

Well....VA Tech is no slouch...just extremely inconsistent.

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Well....VA Tech is no slouch...just extremely inconsistent.

and our quarterback looked like a middle schooler. he couldn't pass and no one could run.

 

[dbk]

Brandon Ore is a beast.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: JohnCU
everyone else is calling us the best 1 loss team in the nation and we're #17 in your poll? just wait til we blow VA tech out of the way thursday night.

So, did you enjoy the blow out?

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: JohnCU
everyone else is calling us the best 1 loss team in the nation and we're #17 in your poll? just wait til we blow VA tech out of the way thursday night.

So, did you enjoy the blow out?

yeah someone already pointed it out thanks

 

[Alkaline5]

Originally posted by: JohnCU
and our quarterback looked like a middle schooler. he couldn't pass and no one could run.

Is Proctor Clemson's only QB? I couldn't believe that Bowden wasn't yanking him.

 

[Fingolfin269]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: JohnCU
and our quarterback looked like a middle schooler. he couldn't pass and no one could run.

Is Proctor Clemson's only QB? I couldn't believe that Bowden wasn't yanking him.

Maybe he was and that is the problem?

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: JohnCU
and our quarterback looked like a middle schooler. he couldn't pass and no one could run.

Is Proctor Clemson's only QB? I couldn't believe that Bowden wasn't yanking him.

Maybe he was and that is the problem?

the backups suck worse than he does from what i've heard.