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News Dow bouncing around -1000

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Paratus said:
So earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.

Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100

for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate

for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.

it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
Click to expand...
Its bad, if indeed its 2%. SARS, was 10% mortality rate, IIRC and MERS was 30%, but
there were far less cases/infections.
Influenza is 0.1% mortality but still, 35,000,000 infections means it still kills 35,000 people in the US.
 
Paratus said:
So earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.

Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100

for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate

for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.

it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
Click to expand...
I’ve tried to math it a bit but come up short... for instance what is the disease progression? How long after infection do you know if you are gonna beat it? Whats the longest running infected/sick? I see a lot of unknowns ... maybe you guys have more info?
 
cytg111 said:
I’ve tried to math it a bit but come up short... for instance what is the disease progression? How long after infection do you know if you are gonna beat it? Whats the longest running infected/sick? I see a lot of unknowns ... maybe you guys have more info?
Click to expand...
We simply do not have the data to come to any high quality conclusions. This is a case where we won't really know until it's over. We can speculate, but not much more.
 
TheVrolok said:
We simply do not have the data to come to any high quality conclusions. This is a case where we won't really know until it's over. We can speculate, but not much more.
Click to expand...
Some things should be quantifiable, like how many still sick after 7 days 14 days 21 days etc... but cant find the data...
 
MomentsofSanity said:
And yet, like almost every other time this has happened for the last 4-5 years there will be an almost complete recovery the next day. At least 600 points back into the green.
Click to expand...

Especially Mondays it seems. Mondays are good for panic days after people get to sit over the weekend, catch up on news and fret about money.
 
vi edit said:
My wife and I are both sitting totally in cash since we liquidated our employer 401k's and moved them to Vanguard. Vanguard just puts the funds into a money market acct until you invest it into funds. Trying to decide how long I sit out with the complete and total unknown that the next 10 months of US politics and economy are going to be. :/
Click to expand...

Plus @hal2kilo

While I'm no pro investor, I'd be careful with not participating in the market and let hatred of Trump skew investment decisions if you don't need all that cash soon.

It's certainly good to hold some cash in hand to be able to seize opportunities, I would still remember the old adage that it's very difficult to time the markets, and you're most likely to miss and cost yourself returns.

On one hand we have a lot of uncertainty and we're likely in a global recession, on the other hand, interest rates are extremely low globally, tax rates are low, Trump surrendered on the stupid trade wars, and there is a lot of money floating around looking for an investment home and not finding much better than the stock market.
That fact isn't changing, so I'm expecting a period of increased volatility and some buying opportunities.

Even a simple sp500 index fund returned 30+% last year. The last 10 years have been amazing for my retirement accounts.

I'm continuing my contributions and buying.
If panic subsides, then market continues back up, if things go tits up, let's hope Trump gets blamed, loses re-election and market will eventually recover over time.
 
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Bitek said:
Plus @hal2kilo

While I'm no pro investor, I'd be careful with not participating in the market and hatred of Trump skew investment decisions if you don't need all that cash soon.

It's certainly good to hold some cash in hand to be able to seize opportunities, I would still remember the old adage that it's very difficult to time the markets, and you're most likely to miss and cost yourself returns.

On one hand we have a lot of uncertainty and we're likely in a global recession, on the other interest rates are extremely low globally, tax rates are low, Trump surrendered on the stupid test was, and there is a lot of money floating around looking for an investment home and not finding much better than the stock market.
That fact isn't changing, so I'm expecting a period of increased volatility and some buying opportunities.

Even a simple sp500 index fund returned 30+% last year. The last 10 years have been amazing for my retirement accounts.

I'm continuing my contributions and buying.
If panic subsides, then market continues back up, if things go tits up, let's hope Trump gets blamed, loses re-election and market will eventually recover over time.
Click to expand...
Absolutely this, particularly if you're young, now is not the time change course. Keep buying.
 
TheVrolok said:
Absolutely this, particularly if you're young, now is not the time change course. Keep buying.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Unless you're planning on retiring in the relatively near future your strategy should effectively ignore what the markets are doing today. Regular people like us who try and play the market are fools - long term you will not win. If you're among that small minority who does know how to beat the market consistently you should quit your current job and get people to pay you way more money than you earn now to beat the market for them.
 
Paratus said:
So earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.

Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100

for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate

for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.

it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
Click to expand...
Proper treatment is hard when the hospitals are completely over ran and medical staff are bring infected at a high rate.
 
Zorba said:
Proper treatment is hard when the hospitals are completely over ran and medical staff are bring infected at a high rate.
Click to expand...
This is the sad truth. The death rate shoots up once the medical system is overwhelmed. The unfortunate truth is with something like this you want to be among the first to get it in an area before the system is overwhelmed or at the end when effective treatments are in place.
 
I wonder how long until Trump breaks out his sharpie and the CDC is forced to proclaim that the coronavirus will never show up in the US.
 
Yeah we are 20+ years out. We weren't doing any market timing. We just were in a situation where we wanted to transfer our Employer retirement accounts after leaving the job and their high management costs over to low cost Vanguard. It's enough money where a money market is pulling in $1200 a month in dividends. I'm just not in a super big rush to buy back in not knowing what the stock market does if say Sanders is elected and the investor class freaks out.
 
fskimospy said:
I wonder how long until Trump breaks out his sharpie and the CDC is forced to proclaim that the coronavirus will never show up in the US.
Click to expand...
An ~8% decline in less than 2 days leads me to believe that there's more rattling the markets than just the coronavirus.
 
Media reports the virus may affect the markets. Soon after the markets take a small dive. Shaking out more suckers.
 
Vic said:
An ~8% decline in less than 2 days leads me to believe that there's more rattling the markets than just the coronavirus.
Click to expand...
Yea, oil is below $50 dollars. Lack of demand. I wonder how much air travel is down. Anyway, I'm watching my senior high school class president Tyler Mathison on CNBC delivering all this wonderful news.
 
hal2kilo said:
Who knows. This could become Trump's Katrina. I hope not. No one knows the future.
Click to expand...

Nate Silver said something that I think is very right - that Trump saying the coronavirus isn't a problem and we've got it all under control is politically foolish. If it turns out we do have it under control that's fine but if it turns out we don't people are going to hang that around his neck as a symbol of his incompetence.
 
Yup, called it, now we only need some additional bad containment news, add a little salt and we will have onset panic. Wonder if the HFT bots have gotten a little more slack or are they the same whiney little bitches as last time.

edit : also the dip must not be too steep, cause what tools are left to mitigate? Trump burned them all.
 
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